Last 15 Games Wild Card Win Matrix

[sveumrules]

Thought I’d put together a quick & dirty Wild Card Win Matrix for the last 15 games.

First column is Brewers record with the parenthetical records being what PHI/SD would need to do correspondingly for MKE to finish with a better record.

15-0 (12-4 | 11-4)

14-1 (11-5 | 10-5)

13-2 (10-6 | 9-6)

12-3 (9-7 | 8-7)

11-4 (8-8 | 7-8)

10-5 (7-9 | 6-9)

9-6 (6-10 | 5-10)

8-7 (5-11 | 4-11)

7-8 (4-12 | 3-12)

Anything worse than 11-4 and some help is going to be needed.

For whatever it is or isn’t worth the various projections give one of the above scenarios something like a 24 to 34 percent of playing out in this particular reality.

Dire math for sure, but not zero just yet.

[igor67]

It helps we have 2 teams we can catch. So it the combination of chances that we either play really well, 1 of them collapses, or we play well and someone else is meh.

[Jopal78]

44 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Thought I’d put together a quick & dirty Wild Card Win Matrix for the last 15 games.

First column is Brewers record with the parenthetical records being what PHI/SD would need to do correspondingly for MKE to finish with a better record.

15-0 (12-4 | 11-4)

14-1 (11-5 | 10-5)

13-2 (10-6 | 9-6)

12-3 (9-7 | 8-7)

11-4 (8-8 | 7-8)

10-5 (7-9 | 6-9)

9-6 (6-10 | 5-10)

8-7 (5-11 | 4-11)

7-8 (4-12 | 3-12)

Anything worse than 11-4 and some help is going to be needed.

For whatever it is or isn’t worth the various projections give one of the above scenarios something like a 24 to 34 percent of playing out in this particular reality.

Dire math for sure, but not zero just yet.

There is always a mathematical theory, realistically they have been two games out of a wild card spot for weeks, and have been 9-9 this month, and now every loss makes it easier for the Padres and Phillies to hang on to those wild card spots. 

After 147 games, this is who the '22 Brewers are. A season defining win streak is always possible, but what is most probable based on their performance this year is taking 7 or 8 out of their final 15. 

 

[Outlander]

Brewers probably have to go at least 11-2 the rest of the way and hope Phillies only go 8-6. Maybe lose one to the Cardinals and another to the Marlins with their pitching. Keep on hearing the Brewers must win 3/4 from the Reds but really think they need a sweep. It stinks when good teams like the Blue Jays can't put the Phillies away but the Brewers have had plenty of opportunities  and shouldn't be in position hoping that other teams do what they couldn't.

[Brock Beauchamp]

FanGraphs still has the Brewers at a 20% chance of making the postseason so they're far from dead.

But sheesh, between the Twins and Brewers, it has been extremely hard for me to give a crap about baseball the past two months. For my own sanity I've stepped back for a little while and will re-energize a bit once we reach the offseason.

[UpandIn]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

FanGraphs still has the Brewers at a 20% chance of making the postseason so they're far from dead.

But sheesh, between the Twins and Brewers, it has been extremely hard for me to give a crap about baseball the past two months. For my own sanity I've stepped back for a little while and will re-energize a bit once we reach the offseason.

I kinda checked out for good with that Lindor shot. Brewers needed that game. They didn't have to face the video game pitcher deGrom(not that that Scherzer kid isn't a solid #2)...but I just kinda kept expecting the late run and...it ain't coming. 

I think one of the things Stearns got right in theory...just didn't play out quite right in practice, but being able to go 5-6 deep in the pen. We don't have a terrible pen like some of those Nats teams, teams that otherwise would have won 100 games had, but we're not just getting through 6 and then blowing the opposing team away. And it seems like it's a pitcher here, a pitcher there. Bush gives up a 2R HR, BS. Then Box the next day, then Williams gives it up, Rogers has been good, but he kinda struggled out of the gate. And most of those nights the other pitchers are pitching well. 

It'd be great if we could get Abner Uribe going and on track, get Gasser and others into the pen. Hopefully Bush can have a big year, maybe bring back Rogers(not real convinced that'll happen). And get back to that dominant bullpen so that you're not trying to push your rotation or just so you can limit Peralta, Lauer, Houser and Ashby to two times through the rotation. But, that didn't really work out this year. 

Just pretty much a bland, uninspired year. I could see the same core with a couple of just internal additions getting back to a 95 win team...or repeating this years flame out. Hope it's not the later. 

 

 

[MrTPlush]

My interest in baseball has really tanked since RSNs got dumped off streaming services (I don't even have a streaming service anymore) and then COVID happened. Add in Stearn's questionable running of the team and trading away Hader with little attempt to even improve this team at the deadline...yah not helping the cause. I fully expect this offseason to be an absolute dumpster fire. Woodruff/Burnes nearing FA and little budget to work with. Probably more likely they trade an ace versus make some major improvements. 

Hopefully the Brewers give us something to look forward to going into 2023...but they have limited resources to work with unless they want to sell a chunk of the farm.

[Playing Catch]

I, too, am feeling disheartened. But I have to remind myself of all of those long summers where meaningful baseball ended in June. Are we really that spoiled?

[UpandIn]

3 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

I, too, am feeling disheartened. But I have to remind myself of all of those long summers where meaningful baseball ended in June. Are we really that spoiled?

Nah, it's just how it works. Bucks fans aren't about to be happy with a playoff run. I mean...I was actually pretty happy with the way they played this past year given the fact Middleton was out, but...you get what I'm saying.

Once you reach a certain level, especially when you still have the pieces in place. If we trade away Burnes and Woody this year and go with a new youth movement, then I'd re-adjust my expectations. They run it back and maybe make a trade and keep their aces, then I'll be disappointed with an 88 win season and no post-season.

[Outlander]

A 9-2 record means the Padres can go 6-5 or Phillies 6-6. Don't think 8 wins will get it done. Really need a sweep of the Reds still. Unfortunately the Cardinals will have a lot to play for next week against the Brewers clinching the division in Milwaukee.