Burnes to BAL proposal

[UpandIn]

7 hours ago, brewmann04 said:

The only thing i hope the haul if the trade Corbin they get a better haul than they got for Josh.

Well...yeah, obviously. He's a Cy Young winning starter who throws in their upper 90s...and the most important point, starter. 

Also, he's a starter! 

So yeah, if we end up with a similar return, I will turn over my Brewers fan card. 

[Harold Hutchison]

On 11/4/2022 at 5:21 AM, UpandIn said:

Garcia has played 20 games above LoA and hit .248./.269/.419 in those 20 games.

If you put his LoA numbers and he'd put those same numbers up at AA, he'd likely be a tough call...but I think it's going to be pretty hard to justify rostering him for 90 days...before you send him back down. 

Either way, he's not likely to be a consequential piece of a Corbin Burnes for 3 top 75 prospects trade(2 top 13 and then the 73rd pick). 

 

Garcia is young enough to put it together, His floor is an Arcia type. Great glove, iffy bat. And to be honest, Urias, Perez and Garica are probably sweeteners to get the long-term pieces.

Baltimore is a safe option to deal Burnes to. They are in a tough division (so, maybe they don't make the playoffs, but they potentially could if everything breaks right for them). They have prospects the Brewers would want/could use, including a potential Burnes replacement, a potential Hader replacement, a long-term answer at third, and a down-the-road franchise cornerstone for when Yelich is in the last years of his deal.

And if I'm Matt Arnold, I probably insist on an overpay for a perennial Cy Young contender from anyone.

[Matt Breen]

Grayson Rodriguez and Jordan Westburg would probably be a good starting point for a deal for Burnes (we probably need another piece or two coming back to Milwaukee). Westburg slides into 3B, Rodriguez into the rotation. Baltimore gets an ace. 

As a note: Urias might be a nice pickup for them to play 2B.

All this said, I doubt it's going to happen. I think Baltimore will stay with the kids and not unload someone like Rodriguez. They are not just a piece or two away from winning it all - and they don't have money like the Dodgers to spend.

They really need to stay focused on keeping the cheap, top tier talent. 

But hey - you never know. The O's might get a bug up their butt and be willing to do such a thing.

A guy like Burnes should require elite young talent. Not good or very good. But elite. Of course, we could go for a down the route of quantity over quality - but for a team that wants to contend, I'm not sure it's the best move.

 

[UpandIn]

7 hours ago, clancyphile said:

Garcia is young enough to put it together, His floor is an Arcia type. Great glove, iffy bat. And to be honest, Urias, Perez and Garica are probably sweeteners to get the long-term pieces.

Baltimore is a safe option to deal Burnes to. They are in a tough division (so, maybe they don't make the playoffs, but they potentially could if everything breaks right for them). They have prospects the Brewers would want/could use, including a potential Burnes replacement, a potential Hader replacement, a long-term answer at third, and a down-the-road franchise cornerstone for when Yelich is in the last years of his deal.

And if I'm Matt Arnold, I probably insist on an overpay for a perennial Cy Young contender from anyone.

Yes...but their collective value, particularly to Baltimore is effectively nothing. I don't see the Os on the fence about giving up Westburg and then saying, "yeah, but if they add Garcia, Perez and then Ramon's brother who's likely going to play the same position as Ramon, but wasn't as good last year, that'll tip the scales for us. 

 

I'd want an overpay for Burnes as well. And if we're going to get it, it's more realistic we get it from a team that has players in the lower levels of the minors and not players who are all expected to contribute on the MLB team next year when it's attempting to compete for the first time in several years. 

[UpandIn]

2 hours ago, reillymcshane said:

Grayson Rodriguez and Jordan Westburg would probably be a good starting point for a deal for Burnes (we probably need another piece or two coming back to Milwaukee). Westburg slides into 3B, Rodriguez into the rotation. Baltimore gets an ace. 

As a note: Urias might be a nice pickup for them to play 2B.

All this said, I doubt it's going to happen. I think Baltimore will stay with the kids and not unload someone like Rodriguez. They are not just a piece or two away from winning it all - and they don't have money like the Dodgers to spend.

They really need to stay focused on keeping the cheap, top tier talent. 

But hey - you never know. The O's might get a bug up their butt and be willing to do such a thing.

A guy like Burnes should require elite young talent. Not good or very good. But elite. Of course, we could go for a down the route of quantity over quality - but for a team that wants to contend, I'm not sure it's the best move.

 

End of the day, if Baltimore offers Rodriguez and Westburg for Burnes, I'd probably jump on that. 

As for Urias...his brother...who was actually better(or was last year) is already penciled into that 2B spot next year. They're pretty much the same player, but Ramon is already there and...he's probably a better defender. 

They certainly don't have money like the Dodgers to spend overall, but they probably have just as much as the Dodgers to spend right now. Their payroll obligations at the moment are about 19M with all but ~3M going to deferred payments(again, another team paying Bobby Bonilla). So they could literally add...120M in salary this next year. They've been building up.

By next deadline, DL Hall could have figured it out, Westburg could be rolling, and they could have another breakout prospect.

But the most I think about this, the more I just don't see a competitive team trading 3-4 AAA/MLB caliber players...and not just caliber players, but players who are among the best prospects in the game...for 2 years of Burnes unless we're talking about the...Yankees, mayb ethe Brewers when they were desperate in 2011....or, again, the Angels. But they'd need a whole lot of prospects to really break out. 

No team is more desperate than the Angels. 

[Matt Breen]

7 hours ago, UpandIn said:

No team is more desperate than the Angels. 

And they're system pretty much stinks. Not like they have much of anything in their arsenal to trade.

[UpandIn]

5 hours ago, reillymcshane said:

And they're system pretty much stinks. Not like they have much of anything in their arsenal to trade.

Well, that's why I'm saying they'd need a bunch of prospects to really hit. 3-4 months can change a lot. 

Guys like Joyce, Madden, Neto, O'Hoppe, they could be interesting. The Angels seem like they've been drafting for need for a while now, but this last class actually looks pretty interesting. 

But yes, their system does look like trash compared to the teams we're talking about.

I'd also venture to guess we're going to be very disappointed in the return. Especially the longer we wait. The Luis Castillo deal will likely be closer to the return than a...Grayson Rodriguez, Westburg/Holliday+ return. 

[jay87shot]

For Burnes we would need Grayson Rodriguez in the deal. Whomever the headliner is in a Burnes deal we need them to be mlb ready. Jackson Holiday is great and I would love to have him but having to wait 3 years for a guy to maybe develop into a star isn't enough for the best pitcher this franchise has ever had.

I still don't think Baltimore makes that big big move sending out prospects. Maybe at the deadline if they are in it, it just seems a bit early. I think ATL, LAD, NYM, TOR, PHILLY, and NYY all make more sense for a Burnes deal since they are all there have some passable package and money for Corbin.

[Hopper]

The more I think about it the more unlikely I think it is that they trade Rodriquez on the cusp of his actually pitching in MLB.

I don't think that BAL thinks they are there quite yet, so trading him away, rather than letting him mature in his rookie year, then have him be their guy in the very near future, seems a bit foolish on their part.  Now if they gets Burnes and are able to extend him, that could be another story.

If they view Burnes as the guy that will make them playoff bound in 2023, then maybe it could happen, but I don't think Burnes alone will do it for them.

[nate82]

25 minutes ago, Hopper said:

The more I think about it the more unlikely I think it is that they trade Rodriquez on the cusp of his actually pitching in MLB.

I don't think that BAL thinks they are there quite yet, so trading him away, rather than letting him mature in his rookie year, then have him be their guy in the very near future, seems a bit foolish on their part.  Now if they gets Burnes and are able to extend him, that could be another story.

If they view Burnes as the guy that will make them playoff bound in 2023, then maybe it could happen, but I don't think Burnes alone will do it for them.

I believe the Orioles think they have a shot at winning the AL East next year.  Adding someone like Burnes who has been relatively healthy and still young yet would be someone that they would trade Rodriguez for.  The Orioles have something like $90m that they could spend this offseason.  Will they do that?  I am not sure they will but if they wanted to they will.  As recently as 2018 the Orioles had a $148m payroll.  

The only year where their payroll starts to get expensive is 2024 and some of the players who would be getting expensive probably wont even be on the team anymore and it only comes up to about $102m.  If the past Orioles payroll is any indication then the Orioles have about $40-60m left.  

I think the Orioles are going to be extremely aggressive this off season spending and trading for players.  The Orioles definitely need starting pitching which in trades gets really expensive to acquire.  They are either going to have to trade Rodriguez and Holliday for someone like Burnes or trade Westburg, Hall and others for a #2 or #3 pitcher.  For a #1 pitcher like Woodruff you are looking at Holliday plus others.  

I believe the Orioles are looking for that ace pitcher that they can matchup with Cole.  In free agency the only two options are DeGrom and Rodon.  I don't think either will sign with the Orioles so that leaves them with a bunch of one or two year contract players.  I don't see Verlander leaving the Astros so that leaves the Orioles with Syndergaard and Manaea as the other options.  I don't believe the Orioles will get a FA starter and will instead trade for someone like Burnes or Woodruff.  Burnes will cost a lot more so maybe Woodruff is the more likely option for them.  I think Holliday is someone the Orioles could see as expendable for someone like Woodruff.  I don't think there is a deal for Burnes without Rodriguez in it at least on the Brewers side.  If the Brewers really like Holliday then sure something like Holliday, Westburg, Hall and a throw in could work but I really do not like Hall at all.  

[Harold Hutchison]

On 11/6/2022 at 4:53 AM, UpandIn said:

End of the day, if Baltimore offers Rodriguez and Westburg for Burnes, I'd probably jump on that. 

As for Urias...his brother...who was actually better(or was last year) is already penciled into that 2B spot next year. They're pretty much the same player, but Ramon is already there and...he's probably a better defender. 

They certainly don't have money like the Dodgers to spend overall, but they probably have just as much as the Dodgers to spend right now. Their payroll obligations at the moment are about 19M with all but ~3M going to deferred payments(again, another team paying Bobby Bonilla). So they could literally add...120M in salary this next year. They've been building up.

By next deadline, DL Hall could have figured it out, Westburg could be rolling, and they could have another breakout prospect.

But the most I think about this, the more I just don't see a competitive team trading 3-4 AAA/MLB caliber players...and not just caliber players, but players who are among the best prospects in the game...for 2 years of Burnes unless we're talking about the...Yankees, mayb ethe Brewers when they were desperate in 2011....or, again, the Angels. But they'd need a whole lot of prospects to really break out. 

No team is more desperate than the Angels. 

Do you do Burnes-Tellez for Ohtani straight up in that scenario? Then go for that extension - even if they have to go full Bobby Bonilla.

Give Yelich a 1B glove...

[Hopper]

2 hours ago, clancyphile said:

Do you do Burnes-Tellez for Ohtani straight up in that scenario? Then go for that extension - even if they have to go full Bobby Bonilla.

Give Yelich a 1B glove...

The Angels wouldn't do that trade, we'd have to offer up a lot more.

[UpandIn]

On 11/7/2022 at 3:28 PM, clancyphile said:

Do you do Burnes-Tellez for Ohtani straight up in that scenario? Then go for that extension - even if they have to go full Bobby Bonilla.

Give Yelich a 1B glove...

No...and why would the Angels? The whole reason they're desperate is because they want to re-sign Ohtani. So...why would they trade him(And Rudy Tellez would be inconsequential in this deal). 

And...AGAIN, I'm not doing any Bobby Bonilla extension. It's kinda weird you're hung up on that particular deal since it's not even close to the largest deferred money. The Nats deferred 175M dollars to Scherzer and Strausburg and you're really stuck on the Bonilla thing. What WE'D be doing would be like the Nats and...that'd be dumber IMO. What about when all these prospects develop and you can't afford to extend Frelick, Chourio, Quero, Wiemer, Gasser, Misiorowski...whoever else.

I feel like I've done this before, but the Bobby Bonilla deal worked for the Mets because they took the 5.8M dollars, they took that, they gave it to Mike Hampton...who was coming off a 22-4 season in which he was the MVP runner up.  So they took money for a player they didn't want and didn't want to be there...and who also wasn't good. And they replaced it with an ace pitcher, exactly what they needed at that time. And THEN they got David Wright back as a compensation pick for Hampton. 

So can we trade for Rafael Devers, give up very little in compensation, then making a QO to him and get back a player like Ryan Braun(but a little better and who can actually play 3B).

Guarantee me THAT, and I'll do the Ohtani trade. Otherwise it makes no sense for the Brewers and it makes even less sense for the Angels. 

And then there's no world we can afford Ohtani. He may very well get 50M+ a year. He's going to sign an unprecedented contract. Hell, he may get a 5 year 300M deal. I don't know. But this accomplishes nothing we're trying to do.

 

Burnes to Baltimore makes some sense, and even then...we're probably setting our sites too high on a potential return. 

[UpandIn]

On 11/7/2022 at 6:07 PM, Hopper said:

The Angels wouldn't do that trade, we'd have to offer up a lot more.

Right. The trade simulator aside, Ohtani is worth far more than just his value on the field...which is that of an ace pitcher and a middle of the order hitter, but he's the biggest international superstar in the game and the Angels are trying to KEEP Ohtani. 

That's why they're so desperate. They want to build a winner.

Otherwise...the value makes sense. 2 years of Burnes for 1 of Ohtani(don't care about Tellez as he's a throw in on a trade like this). 

[jay87shot]

No way Otani comes here, now maybe if the Angels want to build around Otani, Trout could make more sense. Yeli would have to be involved which make a deal tough since the Angels already have Rendon on a sketchy long term deal. 

[Brewcrew82]

Apparently the Orioles are the ones who would be "more likely to pass" on this offer...So sick and tired of this crap.

[StearnsFTW]

8 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Apparently the Orioles are the ones who would be "more likely to pass" on this offer...So sick and tired of this crap.

That would be a garbage offer AFTER this coming season.

[UpandIn]

On 12/23/2022 at 9:11 AM, StearnsFTW said:

That would be a garbage offer AFTER this coming season.

Yeah, but it's not surprising at this point. They did next to nothing this off-season.

So why go out and give up top prospects for a pitcher who you're only going to have for 2 years?

I wouldn't make this deal...if I was Baltimore and 1/3rd of their payroll is Adam Frazier and Kyle Gibson.

People want to talk about the Brewers being cheap...Baltimore is a bigger market, more revenue and they finally look like they're on the cusp and THOSE are their signings? Not even looking at Rodon or someone?

They're apparently happy finishing ahead of the Red Sox and will hope the farm system can make them competitive. 

We'll be able to get more from someone else. Baltimore is obviously not serious about winning now. Westburg and Cowser are really nice MLB ready prospects, but to get to back of the rotation pitchers back makes this kinda silly. 

[TURBO]

Any offer for Burnes from Baltimore starts with Grayson Rodriguez, otherwise the phone gets hung up. *click*

[wibadgers23]

I still think the Dodgers and Brewers match up the best in terms of a Burnes trade…and Adames if they want to turn it into a mega trade. The Dodgers have a bunch of really good infield and pitching prospects that the Brewers would covet. Whether the Dodgers would be willing to give up an absolute haul to acquire one or both of our guys is the million dollar question.

[wntrtxn21]

18 hours ago, wibadgers23 said:

I still think the Dodgers and Brewers match up the best in terms of a Burnes trade…and Adames if they want to turn it into a mega trade. The Dodgers have a bunch of really good infield and pitching prospects that the Brewers would covet. Whether the Dodgers would be willing to give up an absolute haul to acquire one or both of our guys is the million dollar question.

I'm not sure the Dodgers woud still be that interested in Burnes. With Bauer now back, Syndergaard, Urias, May, Gonsolin, Kershaw, Pepiot, and Stone/Miller in the minors, they have a pretty decent rotation already. Maybe if they dump Bauer.  Now Adames could probably bring back some pretty good pitching. 

[Redd Vencher]

6 hours ago, wntrtxn21 said:

I'm not sure the Dodgers woud still be that interested in Burnes. With Bauer now back, Syndergaard, Urias, May, Gonsolin, Kershaw, Pepiot, and Stone/Miller in the minors, they have a pretty decent rotation already. Maybe if they dump Bauer.  Now Adames could probably bring back some pretty good pitching. 

All indications are pointing to the Dodgers releasing Bauer.

[brewmann04]

It looking more like the Arm  that will be moved is Burnes

[Soupbone]

Did you see something brewmann?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

15 hours ago, brewmann04 said:

It looking more like the Arm  that will be moved is Burnes

According to whom?