Kimbrel to Phillies 1-year $10m

[nate82]

 

[Brewcrew82]

I think he's done, but we'll see. More games he blows for the Phillies, the better our playoff chances will be. 

[sveumrules]

This makes the Gagne deal look even worse.

[mtsportsfan]

Not disagreeing with you guys , but our bullpen was pretty bad at the end of season last year , if not him who  else is available ? 

[nate82]

6 minutes ago, mtsportsfan said:

Not disagreeing with you guys , but our bullpen was pretty bad at the end of season last year , if not him who  else is available ? 

Chapman is still available.  I would take Chapman on a 1-year $10m deal.  I think that is a far better deal for the Brewers than what Rogers and Kimbrel have signed for. 

[superfly]

16 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Chapman is still available.  I would take Chapman on a 1-year $10m deal.  I think that is a far better deal for the Brewers than what Rogers and Kimbrel have signed for. 

I’ll pass. Yanks literally kicked him off the playoff roster for being a bum. don’t need his lazy sellout mindset around.

[UpandIn]

48 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Chapman is still available.  I would take Chapman on a 1-year $10m deal.  I think that is a far better deal for the Brewers than what Rogers and Kimbrel have signed for. 

That was exactly who I was thinking...

There was some jackassery on his behalf at the end of last year, but he's still a flame thrower who can be dominant. And I don't really trust Williams completely(nobody needs to show me why I'm wrong or his peripherals, it's just a feeling based on his diminished FB velo).

Bullpens though come together and become great or implode and it's just so hard to predict at this time of the year.

I'd have been happy with a Kimbrel signing, but again, not at 10M. 

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, UpandIn said:

That was exactly who I was thinking...

There was some jackassery on his behalf at the end of last year, but he's still a flame thrower who can be dominant. And I don't really trust Williams completely(nobody needs to show me why I'm wrong or his peripherals, it's just a feeling based on his diminished FB velo).

Bullpens though come together and become great or implode and it's just so hard to predict at this time of the year.

I'd have been happy with a Kimbrel signing, but again, not at 10M. 

Chapman has a declining velocity problem as well, FWIW (not to mention rapidly dwindling peripherals). At least Williams' once-in-a-generation pitch doesn't rely on velocity...

Chapman is caked in dynamite at this point. I don't see anything to suggest that he'll be returning to dominance any time soon.

[StearnsFTW]

$10MM is asinine, but most of the contracts have been asinine.

[UpandIn]

11 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Chapman has a declining velocity problem as well, FWIW (not to mention rapidly dwindling peripherals). At least Williams' once-in-a-generation pitch doesn't rely on velocity...

Chapman is caked in dynamite at this point. I don't see anything to suggest that he'll be returning to dominance any time soon.

Yes, we've had this disagreement. His velocity was "down" to 97.5 last year...he also missed time with a leg injury and leg injuries lead to lower velo. 

I also think it's misleading to say he has "rapidly dwindling peripherals," they fell off last year. If they hadn't...he'd be making 20M this year. So that's the only reason he's even an option. 

 

As for Williams, I didn't compare Williams to Chapman, I expressed concern about Williams as our closer. And I'd disagree(And say you're being really hyperbolic with the once in a generation stuff) when you say it doesn't rely on velocity. A plus changeup is GREAT when you're hitting 99 like Williams was a few years ago. His FB has dropped ~3MPH since 2020. Everyone knows what he's going to throw. He's still been dominant, but if the FB drops to 92-93...I think it'll be much less effective. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, nate82 said:

Chapman is still available.  I would take Chapman on a 1-year $10m deal.  I think that is a far better deal for the Brewers than what Rogers and Kimbrel have signed for. 

Hard no on Chapman for pretty much every reason possible. 

[Brewcrew82]

30 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

Yes, we've had this disagreement. His velocity was "down" to 97.5 last year...he also missed time with a leg injury and leg injuries lead to lower velo. 

I also think it's misleading to say he has "rapidly dwindling peripherals," they fell off last year. If they hadn't...he'd be making 20M this year. So that's the only reason he's even an option. 

 

As for Williams, I didn't compare Williams to Chapman, I expressed concern about Williams as our closer. And I'd disagree(And say you're being really hyperbolic with the once in a generation stuff) when you say it doesn't rely on velocity. A plus changeup is GREAT when you're hitting 99 like Williams was a few years ago. His FB has dropped ~3MPH since 2020. Everyone knows what he's going to throw. He's still been dominant, but if the FB drops to 92-93...I think it'll be much less effective. 

Except it's not just last year that his peripherals/metrics fell off. Notice a trend since 2020? Everything is going in the wrong direction...

Chapman is going to be 35 by opening day. It's almost certainly more than just injuries, and he's not suddenly going to become less injury prone the older he gets. 

How is saying Williams' changeup/airbender is a once-in-a-generation type of pitch "hyperbolic"? It's an 80-grade pitch, the literal definition of generational. Probably the best changeup since Pedro. Certainly more than just "plus". I'm not going to pretend the velocity drop isn't a little concerning (he never hit 99 on a consistent basis FWIW--2020 avg. velocity was 96.7, two pitches at 99), but his peripherals and metrics were absolutely masterful last year (aside from BB%). Like 99/100th percentile across the board...Even more dominant than Hader since 2020...

[brewmann04]

24 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Except it's not just last year that his peripherals/metrics fell off. Notice a trend since 2020? Everything is going in the wrong direction...

Chapman is going to be 35 by opening day. It's almost certainly more than just injuries, and he's not suddenly going to become less injury prone the older he gets. 

How is saying Williams' changeup/airbender is a once-in-a-generation type of pitch "hyperbolic"? It's an 80-grade pitch, the literal definition of generational. Probably the best changeup since Pedro. Certainly more than just "plus". I'm not going to pretend the velocity drop isn't a little concerning (he never hit 99 on a consistent basis FWIW--2020 avg. velocity was 96.7, two pitches at 99), but his peripherals and metrics were absolutely masterful last year (aside from BB%). Like 99/100th percentile across the board...Even more dominant than Hader since 2020...

Hard pass on Chapman he was terrible with the yanks 

[UpandIn]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Except it's not just last year that his peripherals/metrics fell off. Notice a trend since 2020? Everything is going in the wrong direction...

Chapman is going to be 35 by opening day. It's almost certainly more than just injuries, and he's not suddenly going to become less injury prone the older he gets. 

How is saying Williams' changeup/airbender is a once-in-a-generation type of pitch "hyperbolic"? It's an 80-grade pitch, the literal definition of generational. Probably the best changeup since Pedro. Certainly more than just "plus". I'm not going to pretend the velocity drop isn't a little concerning (he never hit 99 on a consistent basis FWIW--2020 avg. velocity was 96.7, two pitches at 99), but his peripherals and metrics were absolutely masterful last year (aside from BB%). Like 99/100th percentile across the board...Even more dominant than Hader since 2020...

Dude...can I just have an opinion on Chapman without being forced into this same argument every time? We did this like....3-4 days ago. I said I'd like to see them sign Chapman to help fortify the backend of the pen. 

He pitched a partial season last year...he's a big power lefty who was still getting 15+K per 9 in 2021 pitching in the AL East. Relievers are volatile and he's "trended" downward before. AGAIN, if he were the same guy throwing 105MPH, this wouldn't be a discussion as he'd get Edwin Diaz money. 

 

I don't know, I guess I don't want him? Or we can just agree to have a different opinion on him? As for Williams...like I said...specifically spelled out;

2 hours ago, UpandIn said:

(nobody needs to show me why I'm wrong or his peripherals, it's just a feeling based on his diminished FB velo).

Yeah, I get Williams peripherals have been really good. 

He's got a great changeup. I'm not disputing this. Again, I think a "once in a generation pitch," is...a bit much and it's definitely not what an 80 grade means. If it was, then Hunter Greene(and several other pitchers) would have a once in a generation Fastball. 

 

[Brewcrew82]

24 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

Dude...can I just have an opinion on Chapman without being forced into this same argument every time? We did this like....3-4 days ago. I said I'd like to see them sign Chapman to help fortify the backend of the pen. 

He pitched a partial season last year...he's a big power lefty who was still getting 15+K per 9 in 2021 pitching in the AL East. Relievers are volatile and he's "trended" downward before. AGAIN, if he were the same guy throwing 105MPH, this wouldn't be a discussion as he'd get Edwin Diaz money. 

 

I don't know, I guess I don't want him? Or we can just agree to have a different opinion on him? As for Williams...like I said...specifically spelled out;

Yeah, I get Williams peripherals have been really good. 

He's got a great changeup. I'm not disputing this. Again, I think a "once in a generation pitch," is...a bit much and it's definitely not what an 80 grade means. If it was, then Hunter Greene(and several other pitchers) would have a once in a generation Fastball. 

 

You can ultimately have whatever opinion you want. But a 35-year old Chapman is unlikely to fortify much of anything. It's called decline. He's striking out as few batters as he EVER has. He's walking as many batters as he EVER has (1st percentile). And batters are hitting the ball increasingly hard against him. An ominous combination.

Not to mention he's a terrible person and cancer in the clubhouse.

"Once-in-a-generation" "Unicorn" "Best since Pedro". All are words which have been used to describe Devin's changeup. At the very least, maybe you can just let me have this particular opinion...

[UpandIn]

4 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

You can ultimately have whatever opinion you want. But a 35-year old Chapman is unlikely to fortify much of anything. It's called decline. He's striking out as few batters as he EVER has. He's walking as many batters as he EVER has (1st percentile). And batters are hitting the ball increasingly hard against him. An ominous combination.

Not to mention he's a terrible person and cancer in the clubhouse.

"Once-in-a-generation" "Unicorn" "Best since Pedro". All are words which have been used to describe Devin's changeup. Or maybe you can just let me have this particular opinion...

I didn't argue your opinion, I argued the an 80 grade is the literal definition of generational.

 

2 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

It's an 80-grade pitch, the literal definition of generational.

That's not the definition.

6 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

He's striking out as few batters as he EVER has.

He struck out 15.5 in 2021. 

Seems like that might help fortify our BP.  But...I suppose it's very unlikely a HOF reliever who's still throwing in the upper 90s could help. 

 

[Brewcrew82]

22 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

 

 

 

He struck out 15.5 in 2021. 

Seems like that might help fortify our BP.  But...I suppose it's very unlikely a HOF reliever who's still throwing in the upper 90s could help. 

 

Yes. Because strikeout rate is all that matters...And ignoring the greater context of the overall decline in his K% since 2020, culminating in his career low 26.9 K% this past season, to go with a career high (and bottom 1%) BB% and an increasing hard hit rate. 

HOF reliever? I guess, if you consider Craig Kimbrel, who has been better, to be a HOF reliever. All that should matter, though, is how he's pitching right now, which is quite far from a HOF level...

Throws in the upper 90s? So do many relievers in MLB nowadays. Jandel Gustave, anyone? 

If we're going to sign Chapman, we might as well sign Trevor Bauer...

 

[UpandIn]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Yes. Because strikeout rate is all that matters...And ignoring the greater context of the overall decline in his K% since 2020, culminating in his career low 26.9 K% this past season, to go with a career high (and bottom 1%) BB% and an increasing hard hit rate. 

HOF reliever? I guess, if you consider Craig Kimbrel, who has been better, to be a HOF reliever. All that should matter, though, is how he's pitching right now, which is quite far from a HOF level...

Throws in the upper 90s? So do many relievers in MLB nowadays. Jandel Gustave, anyone? 

If we're going to sign Chapman, we might as well sign Trevor Bauer...

 

I don't care enough about any of this to keep going on. 

 

I think adding Chapman would help us...and I'm done justifying my opinion. 

[Robocaller]

I would have been down for 1@$5M for him. 

At this rate, I wonder if the only bullpen help we're going to get is signing a couple of guys to a minor league contract with a S.T. invite.

 

[Brewcrew82]

11 hours ago, UpandIn said:

I don't care enough about any of this to keep going on. 

 

I think adding Chapman would help us...and I'm done justifying my opinion. 

The only thing Chapman would add to this team is increasing the number of people who like to draw and fire guns on their girlfriends by 100%...

[MVP2110]

I don't understand why everything has to be black & white. Chapman might help us or he might not. It is true his peripherals were down last year but there could be a multitude of reasons for that where it might be correctable, it's also possible it's a sign of imminent decline. We honestly don't know. 

[Brewcrew82]

4 minutes ago, MVP2110 said:

I don't understand why everything has to be black & white. Chapman might help us or he might not. It is true his peripherals were down last year but there could be a multitude of reasons for that where it might be correctable, it's also possible it's a sign of imminent decline. We honestly don't know. 

I don't think it's that debatable to say that he has a lot more going against him (age, peripherals, velocity, injury issues, etc.) at this point than he has going for him (throws upper 90s?). And then he's a clubhouse cancer and domestic abuser on top of that...Waayy too much baggage for a team like the Brewers. 

[Thurston Fluff]

Seems like he got some $ on his name more than his ability. Given the money being tossed around I think it might be best to go the throw as many things at the wall as possible and see what sticks route. I'd rather find a few guys that are younger with decent stuff but hasn't put it together yet than rely on old guys with a name and diminished stuff. It doesn't appear we're going to get a guaranteed back of the pen type so we might be best served adding talent over past performance.

[UpandIn]

6 hours ago, MVP2110 said:

I don't understand why everything has to be black & white. Chapman might help us or he might not. It is true his peripherals were down last year but there could be a multitude of reasons for that where it might be correctable, it's also possible it's a sign of imminent decline. We honestly don't know. 

Josh Hader was pretty bad last year and he was a racist, homophobe(always reduce people to the worst behavior if nothing else) who was a clubhouse problem because HE refused to pitch any inning other than the 9th. 

Of course I don't think anyone ACTUALLY thinks that about Hader...who had a ERA quite a bit higher than Chapman did during his irredeemable season! 

You'd also think you could just agree to disagree and give someone the last word, but you can't do that either and it ends up being the last 3 words. 
I presume everyone realizes that Arnold ain't sitting here reading the board and taking his cues from what we think.

But I guess Chapman at 7.5+incentives is the third rail on here. 

[MVP2110]

2 hours ago, UpandIn said:

Josh Hader was pretty bad last year and he was a racist, homophobe(always reduce people to the worst behavior if nothing else) who was a clubhouse problem because HE refused to pitch any inning other than the 9th. 

Of course I don't think anyone ACTUALLY thinks that about Hader...who had a ERA quite a bit higher than Chapman did during his irredeemable season! 

You'd also think you could just agree to disagree and give someone the last word, but you can't do that either and it ends up being the last 3 words. 
I presume everyone realizes that Arnold ain't sitting here reading the board and taking his cues from what we think.

But I guess Chapman at 7.5+incentives is the third rail on here. 

Lol I'm not the one you are arguing with here? I'm with you, a 1 year deal for Chapman is totally reasonable