2023 Packers draft discussion

[nate82]

Just now, CheezWizHed said:

The 3 cone is my favorite *single* athletic measurement for a WR. Obviously, you look at the whole package, but 3 cone is the first one I look at.  They have to turn sometime.  

Hard to tell where they are drafted based on numbers because you don't know the competition either. 

But if they are 2-3 rounds separated,,, we can draft both right? 🙂

I still prefer a vertical but yeah I agree at some point they have to turn this isn't NASCAR.  For vertical you don't really even need a great QB to take advantage of that.  Take Cunningham at the end of his career he was basically just lobbing balls to Moss and Carter for the Vikings.  A good vertical to me is the most important attribute for a WR.  Can the WR out jump whoever is guarding him the next best attribute is can they reliably catch the ball and finally can they create some separation (agility or speed) from the defender.  Route running is also important can the QB trust you to be in the spot you are supposed to be in without actually watching you run your route. 

[homer]

To me route running corresponds with your ability to get separation and get open. Davante Adams isn't a huge burner but dude gets open because he is an elite route runner. 

[LouisEly]

6 hours ago, nate82 said:

For DT's there are 14 with a grade of 1-4

According to who?  NFL.com only has nine with a grade of 6.2 or higher, which is the lowest grade for average NFL starter potential.  6.10-6.19 is good backup with potential to develop into a starter and there are two of those.

Last year eight interior DL were drafted in the first four rounds.  The fewest TFL that any of them had in either of the past two seasons was 5.0; the second fewest was 7.5.  The year before nine interior DL were drafted in the first four rounds; a few didn't play in 2020, but the fewest TFL that any of them had in either of the last two seasons was a pure NT (Tyler Shelvin) drafted in the 4th round with 3.0 (but that was 2019 as he didn't play in 2020).  Next fewest was 4.5 (Tommy Togai, drafted end of 4th round, very undersized), then 5.5 (Jay Tufele, but that was also 2019 as he also didn't play in 2020).

History doesn't show many interior DL w/o decent production drafted in the first four rounds.  Most of these guys who are "graded" in rounds 1-4 of this draft have less than 5 TFL in either of the last two seasons.  We'll see come draft weekend, but based on history, most of these guys are unlikely to go in the first 3-4 rounds.

[nate82]

1 hour ago, LouisEly said:

According to who?  NFL.com only has nine with a grade of 6.2 or higher, which is the lowest grade for average NFL starter potential.  6.10-6.19 is good backup with potential to develop into a starter and there are two of those.

Going off of Dane Brugler's from The Athletic Draft Guide. 

[LouisEly]

On 4/10/2023 at 4:53 PM, LouisEly said:

A: 95 rec., 1600 rec yds, 9 TDs; combine/pro day: 4.48-40, 1.60 10-yd split, 35" vertical, 6.57 3-cone, 3.93 short-shuttle

B: 110 rec., 1360 rec yds, 12 TDs; combine/pro day: 4.43-40, 1.51 10-yd split, 36.5" vertical, 6.84 3-cone, 4.12 short-shuttle

Now, what if B was likely to go 2-3 rounds later than A?  Would you take B later?

A: is Jaxon Smith-Njigba, projected 1st round pick

B: is Charlie Jones of Purdue, projected 3rd-5th round pick

[LouisEly]

9 hours ago, nate82 said:

This is probably not a popular opinion but if Dewayne McBride is available in the 4th or 5th round I think the Packers go with him.  He is a perfect RB fit for zone blocking. 

Hmmm.... 😉

[nate82]

1 minute ago, LouisEly said:

Hmmm.... 😉

Could possibly be a replacement for Jones or Dillon.  The biggest problem with McBride is he is a bad blocker and his receiving ability is an unknown.  If he were a better blocker or if teams had some tape on him catching the ball as a receiver I think he would be gone right around the 3rd round.  A 4th or 5th round pick with the Packers run blocking scheme basically makes him a perfect fit for them. 

I really like McBride as a RB I wish the Bears used more of a zone blocking scheme.  But the scheme the Bears use wouldn't be good for McBride.  McBride has really good vision and will get a bunch of yards after first contact. 

[homer]

2 hours ago, LouisEly said:

A: is Jaxon Smith-Njigba, projected 1st round pick

B: is Charlie Jones of Purdue, projected 3rd-5th round pick

Charlie Jones is already 24 years old (25 in October).

[CheezWizHed]

20 hours ago, homer said:

To me route running corresponds with your ability to get separation and get open. Davante Adams isn't a huge burner but dude gets open because he is an elite route runner. 

Clearly there is much more to any player than the athletic measurements.  DA's footwork was often lauded as he could pretty much create separation right at the LOS. 

So I was curious what DA's measurements were and I found this web site that really does a nice job comparing each metric by percentiles to all players in that position.  DA's breakdown looks like:

• Vertical Jump (89%), Weight (75%), 3 Cone (74%), Arm Length (69%), 10yd split (68%),  and Broad jump (68%) were all the physical measurements that were above average. 
• The others - 40 yd dash, hand size, height, 20yd shuttle, were all below average. 

Now... a one point sample size doesn't mean much.  And his WR comparisons are not inspiring either.  But I think it is clear how his physical measurements contributed to the type of player he was:

• Vertical Jump contributed to his TD and contested catch capabilities.
• 3-cone and 10yd splits (with his footwork) made him tough to cover in routes. 
• 40yd dash kept him from being much of a deep threat. 

[CheezWizHed]

12 hours ago, LouisEly said:

A: is Jaxon Smith-Njigba, projected 1st round pick

B: is Charlie Jones of Purdue, projected 3rd-5th round pick

https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/jaxon-smith-njigba

One of JSN's comparables is Greg Jennings.  Thankfully they don't have measurables for personality...

[LouisEly]

13 hours ago, homer said:

Charlie Jones is already 24 years old (25 in October).

So what?

All that means is that they will have him under control with a rookie contract for his prime years.  They don't have to waste two years of a rookie contract waiting for him to develop, then try to resign him as a free agent at the age of 25 once he's finally developed and contributing.

This isn't baseball where you have a guy under control for 7-8 years.  In football you only have them under control for four years if not a 1st round pick, five years if a 1st round pick (and I'm not sure that's always an advantage as you have guys like Savage who may or may not be worth what they have to pay him in his fifth year). 

[Sixtolezcano]

3 hours ago, LouisEly said:

So what?

All that means is that they will have him under control with a rookie contract for his prime years.  They don't have to waste two years of a rookie contract waiting for him to develop, then try to resign him as a free agent at the age of 25 once he's finally developed and contributing.

This isn't baseball where you have a guy under control for 7-8 years.  In football you only have them under control for four years if not a 1st round pick, five years if a 1st round pick (and I'm not sure that's always an advantage as you have guys like Savage who may or may not be worth what they have to pay him in his fifth year). 

You may still have to wait 1-2 years before they can acclimate to NFL play. Also WR tends to develop more slowly than other positions and it is only a few (Moss, Jefferson, Chase, etc) freaks that can become stars immediately.

[homer]

3 hours ago, LouisEly said:

So what?

All that means is that they will have him under control with a rookie contract for his prime years.  They don't have to waste two years of a rookie contract waiting for him to develop, then try to resign him as a free agent at the age of 25 once he's finally developed and contributing.

This isn't baseball where you have a guy under control for 7-8 years.  In football you only have them under control for four years if not a 1st round pick, five years if a 1st round pick (and I'm not sure that's always an advantage as you have guys like Savage who may or may not be worth what they have to pay him in his fifth year). 

That's probably part of the reason he's a 3rd - 5th round projection and not a round 1 projection despite similar stats/measurables to JSN. He may have reached his physical ceiling while a 21 year old still has room for improvement. 

[nate82]

The Athletic has the Packers taking the following in the first 3 rounds.  The Athletic has more pick predictions but I am just listing the first 3 rounds. 

15.Peter Skoronski

45. Luke Musgrave TE

78. Antonio Johnson S

https://theathletic.com/4413880/2023/04/17/nfl-7-rounds-mock-draft-2023/

In this draft the Packers pass on Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR who is drafted at #20 to Seattle.  I don't think the Packers would pass on Jaxon Smith-Njigba if he is available at 15 and I don't see the Packers taking Skoronski either. 

[LouisEly]

Yeah, no way should any team take a guard at #15 overall much less the Packers.  I really don't see any OL pick on day 1 or 2.  The Packers kept Rasheed Walker and elevated Caleb Jones to the main roster for a reason.  Some Packers fans think there is this fallacy that the Packers cling to their draft picks no matter what, but that's false.  Amari Rodgers was a 3rd round pick and he didn't make it through his 2nd season.  Neither did Kylin Hill, and he wasn't released because of his injury.  Kamal Martin didn't even make it to his 2nd season.  Same with J'mon Moore.  Jake Hanson didn't make the final cut of his rookie camp. They won't hesitate to cut bait on a player who isn't worth a 53-man spot.  They see something in Walker and Jones.  And there's time to extend Nijman. 

This whole "they only have (X number of) guys signed beyond 2024" is way overblown.  That's the case for all teams.  Most draft picks are only 4-year contracts and UDFAs are free agents after four accrued seasons.  Most veteran free agents are on 1-2 year deals.  Few players are under contract for three or more years.

[LouisEly]

Aw hell… I can’t quit you!

This is a difficult draft to predict because they have a lot of roster holes – meaning simply not enough players at that position – that they need to fill.  They have some cap space but will likely need if/when they trade Rodgers to absorb his additional cap hit.  They only have two TEs with NFL game experience.  They only have three WRs with NFL game experience.  They only have three DL who have made a tackle in a NFL game. Their FA signing at safety, Tarvarius Moore, played a total of 41 snaps on defense in 2022.  They don’t have a kicker or backup QB on the roster with NFL game experience.  They will need to draft at least one player at each of those positions and at least two at WR, maybe TE.

Here goes:

1st round (#15): Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia – what we know about the Packers is that they like guys who are athletic freaks that have plus size for their position and they like guys from big programs.  Washington is that freak as demonstrated by his 9.85 RAS, 4.64 40-time, and a ridiculous, elite-for-a-WR 4.07 short-shuttle.  I think the Marcedes Lewis comparisons are unfair because, first, Lewis ran a 4.80 40 and a 4.75 short-shuttle, and second, we’re seeing the 38-year-old version of Lewis, not the 23-year-old version.  Georgia has been successful because they have guys who are team players who accept their role and Washington was one of those guys.  He can be and has been a receiving mismatch and threat as evidenced by his career 17.2 ypc, and he’s a beast to bring down in the open field.  I’ve said before that Washington is the player in the draft who can help Jordan Love the most because of his blocking and receiving abilities, and he reminds me of an offensive version of Rashan Gary – elite athleticism, unrefined technique, average production, but huge upside.  This could very well be a trade-down scenario.  (Replaces Marcedes Lewis)
If he’s still available: Brian Branch, S, Georgia – while Branch didn’t put up the big combine numbers that were expected, he’s still regarded as the best prospect at a position the Packers need to fill.  His football intelligence and instincts are through the roof, he’s a team leader, and the post-season showed why.  He’s also one of the best tacklers to come out of college in recent history as PFF credited him with only three missed tackles on 122 attempts over the last two seasons, and the Packers really need better tackling.  He finished his career at Alabama with just four missed tackles to his name. It’s possibly the most absurd stat for any prospect in this draft.  He also had 14(!) TFLs last season - as a safety.  Safety is one of the positions where instincts more than make up for a 0.1 seconds/40-yards, and he can be that single-high or split centerfielder that the Packers need on the back end of their defense.  Maybe he's a high-floor guy, but it’s a really high floor.
Don’t be surprised if it’s: Keion White, DE, Georgia Tech – defensive end with plus size and freakish athleticism but a bit raw on technique.  Sound familiar?  Starts out as a TE at a non-Power-5 school, switches to DE and transfers to a Power-5 school.  Sound familiar?  White does things that 6’4”, 280 lb guys should not be able to do. There is a rep versus Virginia where White turns and runs with a running back down the sideline on a wheel route and was step-for-step with him.  Not surprising that he was hand-timed between 4.65 and 4.75 at his pro day, and he also put up 30 reps on the bench at the Combine.  Can stand up or put his hand in the dirt, can play and set the edge and move inside on passing downs.  High motor and team leader who was voted captain in his second season with Georgia Tech and while not a finished product has a ton of upside.  The Packers have a need at DL, specifically end, and it’s a weak class for DL and especially DE. If it’s best player available, that might be White here, and the more I talk about it the more I think it happens.

2nd round (#45): Jartavius Martin, S/CB, Illinois – Martin played both CB and safety for the Illini, taking more snaps in the slot but plenty as the deep safety.  Showcased his athleticism at the Combine with a 4.46-40, and an eye-popping 1.47 10-yard split and 44” vertical.  Has a strong burst to close and plus ball skills with the speed and range to play over the top as a single-high safety.  One of the best tackling DBs in the draft.  It’s a weak class for safeties with athleticism, and Martin has the ability to play multiple positions as the Packers need a free safety and can use another CB while Stokes is out.  (Replaces Adrian Amos in 2023, Darnell Savage in 2024)
If he’s still available – Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon State – I think there’s a strong chance that the Packers both move down from #15 and move up from #45, especially if they get a pick or two from the Jets.  If they do, they could likely be targeting Musgrave.  Musgrave showed his athleticism at the Senior Bowl and at the Combine, and his nimble feet and experience as a skier showed his ability as a route-runner.  9.95 RAS, but while he gives good effort with his blocking it’s still a weakness as he got blown up a few times at those Senior Bowl practices.  Some injury risk here, as he’s only played 18 games over the last three seasons.
Don’t be surprised if it’s: Will McDonald, Edge, Iowa State – explosive, athletic edge rusher with elite agility and bend and a knack for making it really hard to block him.  Over his last four seasons amassed 34 sacks and 40 TFL.  Was reportedly timed at a ridiculous 6.60 on the 3-cone at their pro day.  He’s a bit on the light side, and holding up against the run is his weakness, but he has length (35” arms) and a quick first step that allows him to get penetration and make plays in the backfield.

(Bonus – if the Packers get one of the Jets 2nd round picks for Rodgers)
Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee – Slender WR with deep speed to stress defenses, Hyatt blows past man coverage and his deep threat will lighten the box.  Averaged almost 19 ypc and had over 1200 yards and 15 TDs, with 5 of those TDs against Alabama.  When Hooker went down, so did Hyatt’s production.  
If he’s still available: Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia – boundary corner with size, length, and speed.  Physical, can press with the best and not afraid to support the run at all.  Scheme-independent, plays well in man or zone.  Had some troubles with comeback routes and tracking deep balls, and called for nine penalties in 2022. 9.61 RAS.
Don’t be surprised if it’s: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame – a complete TE who does everything well.  Good receiver, good blocker, polished route runner.  Didn’t show the athleticism that some expected, but the list of TEs who are both good receivers and good blockers is a short list.  Former teammate Kyle Hamilton once said that if there’s one thing that he learned during the draft process, “it’s that NFL teams love them some Michael Mayer”.  Not the highest ceiling, but a high floor and is as NFL ready as any TE in the draft.

3rd round (#78) – Trey Palmer, WR, Nebraska – speed demon who set Nebraska’s record for receiving yards in a season despite his production tanking when their starting QB went down with injury.  Topped all WRs at the combine with a 4.33 40 and has long arms and strong hands.  Has good burst off the line with a quiet engine that he can turn on and leave defenders in the dust.  Also a great returner, has returned both a punt and a kick for a TD, and was used on jet sweeps and gadget plays.  Route running needs refinement, tends to get by on athleticism over technique.  Eerily similar to Jalin Hyatt, but played with a worse QB and can probably be had a round later.  (Replaces Randall Cobb)
If he’s still available: Jordan Battle, S, Alabama – three year starter for Alabama, which says something with the talent they have.  Highly instinctive player who always knows where he is supposed to be, it’s rare that you will see film where there is a busted coverage on his part.  Mostly lined up as a deep safety, but also has and can play in the box.  Not the most athletic, that might get exposed on the next level, but good enough where he can succeed deep in a split safety alignment like Barry typically plays.  
Don’t be surprised if it’s: Andrei Iosivas, WR, Princeton – WR with plus size and elite athleticism, but questions about playing at a lower level of competition and limited route tree.  Sound familiar?  6’3”, 205, Iosivas is a bit raw because he never participated in spring practice – he was on the track team.  Decorated heptathlete, finished 3rd in the country and set an indoor record in the 60-meter dash.  While he ran a limited route tree, he’s a good route runner and can drop his hips and get in and out of his breaks.  Small-ish hands, but only seven drops for his career.  9.92 RAS.  Playing across from Watson could cause nightmares for defensive coordinators.

4th round (#116) Viliami Fehoko, DE, San Jose State – strong, tough, active, with a nasty streak to him, Fehoko has been very productive in both rush and pass defense.  Mountain West defensive POY, Fehoko had 19 TFL and 9 sacks along with 66 pressures and 69 tackles, and over his last three seasons amassed 22 sacks and 44 TFL.  Physical and strong at the point of attack, PFF also gave him a 90.9 run grade.  Not the most lengthy, he’s a bit of a tweener at 6’4”, 276, but can probably add some weight and be an adequate DE.  (Replaces Dean Lowry)
If he’s still available: Adetomiwa Adebawore, DE, Northwestern – Combine wonder who is short-ish for DE (6’2”) but has long arms (6’10” wingspan), athletic but wasn’t terribly productive.  Sure, Northwestern was bad and not in pass defense a lot, but those athletic traits should have produced more as his awareness and instincts were below average.  Could play edge on run downs and move inside on passing downs.
Don’t be surprised if it’s: Charlie Jones, WR, Purdue – one year production wonder, Jones was simply uncoverable this past season at Purdue.  Despite being their only WR threat, he still caught 110 passes for over 1300 yards.  Perhaps most impressive was his performance in the Big Ten Championship where he torched Michigan – and top prospect D.J. Turner – for 13 catches for 162 yards.  Great returner, he’s returned both a punt and a kick for a TD.  Answered questions about his athleticism at the Combine where he ran a 4.43 with a 1.51 split.  Ideal slot WR, maybe not a deep threat, but eats zone defenses alive.

5th round (#149): Jordan Howden, S, Minnesota – walk-on turned 49 game starter, Howden has played over 3,000 snaps in his career and is a highly instinctive player who’s rarely out of position and displays good route recognition.  Solid tackler, Howden was tied for 4th in PFF tackling grade among safeties.  Showed good athleticism at the combine, running a 4.49 with a 1.55 split, and at his pro day posted a 39” vertical and 6.87 3-cone.  Only two missed tackles on 51 attempts last season.  Logged over 500 snaps on special teams.  (Replaces Gaines/Abrams/Abernathy/Moore)
If he’s still available: DeWayne McBride, RB, UAB – Conference USA RB who averaged over 7 ypc and had over 1700 yards with oily hips and can swivel around would-be tacklers.  Sound familiar?  For his career, McBride averaged 7.3 ypc over almost 500 carries and over the last two seasons has combined for over 3,000 yards and 31 TDs.  Good vision, slippery, great at making tacklers miss and getting the extra yard, but limited pass catching reps and occasional fumbles will push him down.  
Don’t be surprised if it’s: Matt Landers, WR, Arkansas – cue the MV-S comparisons, Landers is a tall, lean, fast WR.  Caught in a talent logjam at Georgia, he transferred to Arkansas where he averaged over 19 ypc this past season and 19.6 ypc for his career.  Ran a 4.37 40 at the combine, good for a 9.91 RAS.  Still raw, needs route refinement and has some focus drops, he’s a developmental prospect like MV-S with upside.

5th round (#170): Dylan Horton, Edge, TCU – in TCU’s playoff game against Michigan there was a play early in the game where Michigan’s QB scrambled out of the pocket to his left and went up the sideline with nobody around and looked like he was going to score untouched.  Then, out of nowhere, a TCU defender came flying in and knocked him out of bounds at the 1 yard line.  Michigan then fumbled on the next play, and the rest is history.  That playmaker was Horton, who was rushing from the opposite side. Horton had a breakout year, recording 10.5 sacks, 48 pressures, and 15 TFLs.  High motor, high effort player with an explosive first step.  Often played on the DL where he didn’t hold up well against the run, his better fit is on the edge where his upper body power and hand usage is adequate.  (Replaces Galeai/Hamilton/Garvin, fills in for Gary)
If he’s still available: Zack Kuntz, TE, Old Dominion – rare player who scored a perfect 10 RAS, Kuntz is the athletic freak of all freaks who won the state 110 meter hurdles despite his size.  Proved it at the combine where he ran a 4.55 40 with a 40” vertical and 6.87 3-cone.  But you have to wonder why he couldn’t get on the field at Penn State and transferred down to Old Dominion instead of another P-5 school.
Don’t be surprised if it’s: Daniel Scott, S, Cal – solid, all-around football player who excelled at special teams at Cal his first few seasons when stuck behind some future NFL safeties.  High football IQ, rarely out of position, has plus ball skills with six INTs and three forced fumbles over the last two seasons.  Proved his athleticism at the combine running a 4.45 40 with a 39” vertical and a 6.75 3-cone.  Needs to clean up his tackling technique, as he had too many missed tackles.  Has the size to cover TEs, can play in the box or deep.

7th round (#232): Jake Moody, K, Michigan – Moody may be the best in a year that isn’t strong on kicking talent. Has a strong leg, as evidenced by his 59-yard FG against TCU.  For his career made 82% of his field goals, and kicked outdoors on grass in a northern climate.  The Packers don’t have a kicker on the roster currently with any NFL game experience, and with four 7th round picks, I wouldn’t be surprised if they packaged two 7ths to move up to get him.  (Replaces Mason Crosby)
If he’s still available: SirVocea Dennis, LB, Pitt – smallish LB but very productive and instinctive.  Showed well on their pro day, running in the low 4.5s with a 40” vertical.  36 TFLs over the last three seasons and plenty of special teams experience.
Don’t be surprised if it’s: Jerrod Clark, DT, Coastal Carolina – 6’4”, 330 lb former HS TE turned interior DT who routinely found his way into the backfield with 10 TFL this past season.  Team captain with 81” wingspan, good footwork from his days as a TE, could probably be more disruptive if he lost some weight and moved to DE.

7th round (#235): Jared Wayne, WR, Pitt – Canadian-born combine snub who proved everyone wrong on his pro day where he ran in the low 4.5s, had a 41” vertical, a 6.85 3-cone, and 4.06 short-shuttle.  Good size (6’2”, 209) and productive (1,063 receiving yards in 2022 which was 3rd in the ACC just behind A.T. Perry and Zay Flowers, 17.7 ypc).   (Replaces Allan Lazard)
If he’s still available: Brenton Strange, TE, Penn State – if the Packers go with more of a receiving TE early in the draft, they may want to double-up with a strong blocking TE such as Strange.  Strange gets after it as a lead blocker, and has good athleticism in a compact frame (6’4”, 250) that can play TE or H-back.  
Don’t be surprised if it’s: Dontavyon Wicks, WR, Virginia – Wicks had a big 2021 when he had over 1,200 receiving yards and averaged over 21 ypc.  But he struggled as Virginia’s QB play struggled in 2022.  Didn’t show well at the combine and had issues with drops, but did better at their pro day, posted a 39” vertical, and has long arms and big hands.

7th round (#242): E.J. Jenkins, TE, Georgia Tech – developmental prospect who played some WR but has the body and receiving skills for a F-TE (6’6”, 245).  Impressed at his pro day, running a sub-4.60 and looking good in his route running.  (Replaces Robert Tonyan)
If he’s still available: John Ojukwu, OT, Boise State – two-time 1st  Team All-WAC LT and 2nd Team in 2020, Ojukwu has the length that makes it very difficult to get around him as he has 35” arms and an 84” wingspan.  His 3-cone was 5th best at the Combine among all OL, and his short-shuttle 2nd best.  Struggles in space, below average lateral slide quickness, might be a long-term fit at guard.
Don’t be surprised if it’s: Marte Mapu, S/LB, Sacramento State – big nickel/LB prosepcct who was the Big Sky Defensive Player of the Year, over the last two seasons Mapu has tallied 20 PBUs, 6 INTs, and 12 TFLs. Big hitter with size and length to cover TEs and support the run.
 
7th round (#245):   Scott Matlock, DT, Boise State – two-time 2nd team All-Mountain west, very productive in 2021 with 7 sacks and 8.5 TFLs, but his production dipped in 2022 to 6 TFL and 2 sacks.  Bonus - has caught two TD passes as a goal line TE.  Showed his athleticism at their pro day, running a 4.81 40 and putting up 29 reps on the bench.  9.66 RAS (Replaces Jarren Reed)
If the Aaron Rodgers trade is completed before the draft: Sean Clifford, QB, Penn State – it’s a weak year for QB’s once you get beyond the top five, but if/when the Packers trade Rodgers they will need a backup.  Clifford doesn’t have the highest upside, but he’s a four-year starter in the Big Ten who has thrown for over 10,000 career yards.
Don’t be surprised if it’s: Jake Witt, OT, Northern Michigan – former Upper Peninsula Mr. Basketball who only played on an 8-man HS football team, he played basketball at Michigan Tech before transferring to Northern Michigan and picking up football, initially at TE.  Raw but highly athletic.  Moved from TE to RT due to injury and shut down Ferris State’s Caleb Murphy who set a NCAA record with 25.5 sacks last year.  Ran a sub-4.8 at his pro day with 34” arms.  Will need to spend at least a year on the practice squad but has upside.

 

UDFAs:
Holton Ahlers, QB, East Carolina
Lew Nichols, RB, Central Michigan
Ben Sims, TE, Baylor
Henry Byrd, OT, Princeton
Eric Abojei, OG, Wyoming
Trevor Downing, C, Iowa State
Keytaon Thompson, WR, Virginia
Garrett Maag, WR, North Dakota
Ryan Miller, WR, Furman

Jordan Perryman, CB, Washington
Quindell Johnson, S, Memphis
Caleb Johnson, LB, Miami
Zeke Vandenburgh, LB, Illinois State
Matthew Jester, Edge, Princeton
Deslin Alexandre, DE, Pitt
Shakel Brown, DL, Troy
Joe Doyle, P/K, Memphis

[CheezWizHed]

Good stuff as always @LouisEly.  Washington is my preferred TE.  Clearly will block now... certainly has the physical capabilities to grow as a receiver.  

I do think they will draft a QB regardless of Rodger's situation.  No way is he going to back up Love and I can't see the coaching staff sitting Love now. Trade or retirement at this point. 

[MVP2110]

So I've been working on this for awhile now and I'm finally ready to release my top 3 round board for Green Bay, it's a long read just an FYI, skip to the bottom to see the guys I'm highest and lowest on compared to the consensus draft board

1. Bryce Young, QB 1
2. CJ Stroud, QB 2
3. Will Anderson, Edge 1
4. Jalen Carter, DL 1
(Tier 1 Break)

5. Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 1
6. Paris Johnson OT 1
7. Broderick Jones, OT 1
8. Lukas Van Ness, Edge 2
9. Devon Witherspoon CB 1
10. Joey Porter Jr., CB 2
(Tier 2 Break)

11. Myles Murphy, Edge 3
12. Darnell Wright, OT 3
13. Bryan Bresee, DL 2
14. Christian Gonzalez, CB 3
(Tier 3 Break)

15. Nolan Smith, Edge 4
16. Quentin Johnston, WR 2
17. Darnell Washington, TE 1
18. Jalin Hyatt, WR 3
19. Anthony Richardson, QB 3
20. Will Levis QB 4
21. Anton Harrison, OT 4
22. Peter Skoronski, OT 5
23. Michael Mayer, TE 2
24. Cam Smith, CB 4
(Tier 4 Break)

25. Deonte Banks, CB 5
26. Johnathan Mingo, WR 4
27. Kelee Ringo, CB 6
28. Mazi Smith, DL 3
29. Isaiah Foskey, Edge 5
30. Sam Laporta, TE 3
31. Marvin Mims, WR 5
32. Keeanu Benton, DL 4
33. Gervon Dexter, DL 5
34. Emmanuel Forbes CB 7
35. Calijah Kancey, DL 6
36. Trenton Simpson, LB 1
37. Adetomiwa Adebawore, Edge 6
38. Cedric Tillman, WR 6
39. Brian Branch, S 1 / CB 8
40. Bijan Robinson, RB 1
41. Rashee Rice, WR 7
42. Michael Wilson, WR 8
43. Zach Harrison, Edge 7
44. Hendon Hooker, QB 5
45. Tyree Wilson, Edge 8
46. Jack Campbell, LB 2
47. Luke Musgrave, TE 4
48. Julius Brents, CB 9
49. Dawand Jones, OT 6
(Tier 5 Break)

50. Dalton Kincaid, TE 5
51. Drew Sanders, LB 3
52. Noah Sewell, LB 4
53. A.T. Perry, WR 9
54. Antonio Johnson, S 2
55. Derick Hall, Edge 9
56. Jaelyn Duncan, OT 7
57. Moro Ojomo, DL 7
58. Tucker Kraft, TE 6
59 Luke Schoonmaker, TE 7
60. Zach Kuntz, TE 8
61. Benton Strange, TE 9
(Tier 6 Break)

62. Luke Wypler, IOL 1
63. Matthew Bergeron, OT 8
64. Cody Mauch, OT 9/ IOL 2
65. Will Mcdonald, Edge 10
66. Zay Flowers, WR 10
67. Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Edge 11
68. JL Skinner, S 3
69. Joe Tippman, IOL 3
70. O'Cyrus Torrence, IOL 4
71. Keion White, Edge 12
72. Jordan Battle, S 4
73. Sydney Brown, S 5
74. Darius Rush, CB 10
75. Tuli Tuipulotu, Edge 13/DL 8
76. DJ Turner, CB 11
77. Tyrique Stevenson, CB 12
78. Clark Phillips III, CB 13
(Tier 7 Break)

79. Jahmyr Gibbs, RB 2
80. Jaylon Jones, CB 14
81. Josh Downs, WR 11
82. Jordan Addison, WR 12
83. Blake Freeland, OT 10
84. Trey Palmer, WR 12
85. Zach Charbonnet, RB 3
86. Josh Whyle, TE 10
87. Jartavius Martin, S 6
88. Kayshon Boutte, WR 13
89. Tyjae Spears, RB 4
90. Tyler Steen, OT 11
91. Garrett Williams, CB 15
92. Bj Ojulari, Edge 14
(Tier 8 Break)

93. Zacch Pickens, DL 8
94. DeMarvion Overshown, LB 5.
95. Siaki Ika, DL 9
96. John Michael Schmitz, IOL 5
97. Steve Avila, IOL 6
98. Nick Herbig, Edge 15
99. Ji'Ayir Brown, S 8
100. Chase Brown, RB 5
101. Henry To'oTo'o, LB 6
102. Devon Achane, RB 6

I had 13 guys on my list who weren't on the top 100 Consensus board

26. WR Johnathan Mingo
42. WR Michael Wilson
57. DL Moro Ojomo
59. TE Luke Schoonmaker
60. TE Zach Kuntz
61. TE Benton Strange
68. S JL Skinner
80. CB Jaylon Jones
84. WR Trey Palmer
86. TE Josh Whyle
94. LB DeMarvion Overshown
99. S Ji'Ayir Brown
100. RB Chase Brown

Guys I was either super high or low on compared to the consensus board

Guys I ranked higher
WR Marvin Mims(+45 spots)
WR A.T Perry(+40 spots)
DL Keannu Benton(+39 spots)
Edge Zach Harrison(+32)
WR Jalin Hyatt(+29)
LB Noah Sewell(+28)
WR Cedric Tillman(+27)
WR Rashee Rice(+27)
TE Sam Laporta(+25)
DL Gervon Dexter(+24)
IOL Luke Wypler(+24)
OT Jaelyn Duncan(+21)

Guys I ranked lower
WR Jordan Addison(-67)
RB Jahmyr Gibbs(-58)
IOL John Michael Schmitz(-53)
Edge BJ Ojulari(-52)
IOL Steve Avila(-46)
RB Devon Achane(-41)
IOL O'Cyrus Torrence(-41)
WR Josh Downs(-39)
WR Zay Flowers(-38)
Edge Tyree Wilson(-38)
RB Bijan Robinson(-35)
DL Siaki Ika(-29)
Edge Will Mcdonald(-29)
Edge Felix Anudike-Uzomah(-26)
TE Dalton Kincaid(-26)
CB/S Brian Branch(-23)
RB Zach Charbonnet(-22)

[CheezWizHed]

22 hours ago, MVP2110 said:

So I've been working on this for awhile now and I'm finally ready to release my top 3 round board for Green Bay, it's a long read just an FYI, skip to the bottom to see the guys I'm highest and lowest on compared to the consensus draft board

1. Bryce Young, QB 1
2. CJ Stroud, QB 2
3. Will Anderson, Edge 1
4. Jalen Carter, DL 1
(Tier 1 Break)

5. Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 1
6. Paris Johnson OT 1
7. Broderick Jones, OT 1
8. Lukas Van Ness, Edge 2
9. Devon Witherspoon CB 1
10. Joey Porter Jr., CB 2
(Tier 2 Break)

11. Myles Murphy, Edge 3
12. Darnell Wright, OT 3
13. Bryan Bresee, DL 2
14. Christian Gonzalez, CB 3
(Tier 3 Break)

15. Nolan Smith, Edge 4
16. Quentin Johnston, WR 2
17. Darnell Washington, TE 1
18. Jalin Hyatt, WR 3
19. Anthony Richardson, QB 3
20. Will Levis QB 4
21. Anton Harrison, OT 4
22. Peter Skoronski, OT 5
23. Michael Mayer, TE 2
24. Cam Smith, CB 4
(Tier 4 Break)

25. Deonte Banks, CB 5
26. Johnathan Mingo, WR 4
27. Kelee Ringo, CB 6
28. Mazi Smith, DL 3
29. Isaiah Foskey, Edge 5
30. Sam Laporta, TE 3
31. Marvin Mims, WR 5
32. Keeanu Benton, DL 4
33. Gervon Dexter, DL 5
34. Emmanuel Forbes CB 7
35. Calijah Kancey, DL 6
36. Trenton Simpson, LB 1
37. Adetomiwa Adebawore, Edge 6
38. Cedric Tillman, WR 6
39. Brian Branch, S 1 / CB 8
40. Bijan Robinson, RB 1
41. Rashee Rice, WR 7
42. Michael Wilson, WR 8
43. Zach Harrison, Edge 7
44. Hendon Hooker, QB 5
45. Tyree Wilson, Edge 8
46. Jack Campbell, LB 2
47. Luke Musgrave, TE 4
48. Julius Brents, CB 9
49. Dawand Jones, OT 6
(Tier 5 Break)

50. Dalton Kincaid, TE 5
51. Drew Sanders, LB 3
52. Noah Sewell, LB 4
53. A.T. Perry, WR 9
54. Antonio Johnson, S 2
55. Derick Hall, Edge 9
56. Jaelyn Duncan, OT 7
57. Moro Ojomo, DL 7
58. Tucker Kraft, TE 6
59 Luke Schoonmaker, TE 7
60. Zach Kuntz, TE 8
61. Benton Strange, TE 9
(Tier 6 Break)

62. Luke Wypler, IOL 1
63. Matthew Bergeron, OT 8
64. Cody Mauch, OT 9/ IOL 2
65. Will Mcdonald, Edge 10
66. Zay Flowers, WR 10
67. Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Edge 11
68. JL Skinner, S 3
69. Joe Tippman, IOL 3
70. O'Cyrus Torrence, IOL 4
71. Keion White, Edge 12
72. Jordan Battle, S 4
73. Sydney Brown, S 5
74. Darius Rush, CB 10
75. Tuli Tuipulotu, Edge 13/DL 8
76. DJ Turner, CB 11
77. Tyrique Stevenson, CB 12
78. Clark Phillips III, CB 13
(Tier 7 Break)

79. Jahmyr Gibbs, RB 2
80. Jaylon Jones, CB 14
81. Josh Downs, WR 11
82. Jordan Addison, WR 12
83. Blake Freeland, OT 10
84. Trey Palmer, WR 12
85. Zach Charbonnet, RB 3
86. Josh Whyle, TE 10
87. Jartavius Martin, S 6
88. Kayshon Boutte, WR 13
89. Tyjae Spears, RB 4
90. Tyler Steen, OT 11
91. Garrett Williams, CB 15
92. Bj Ojulari, Edge 14
(Tier 8 Break)

93. Zacch Pickens, DL 8
94. DeMarvion Overshown, LB 5.
95. Siaki Ika, DL 9
96. John Michael Schmitz, IOL 5
97. Steve Avila, IOL 6
98. Nick Herbig, Edge 15
99. Ji'Ayir Brown, S 8
100. Chase Brown, RB 5
101. Henry To'oTo'o, LB 6
102. Devon Achane, RB 6

I had 13 guys on my list who weren't on the top 100 Consensus board

26. WR Johnathan Mingo
42. WR Michael Wilson
57. DL Moro Ojomo
59. TE Luke Schoonmaker
60. TE Zach Kuntz
61. TE Benton Strange
68. S JL Skinner
80. CB Jaylon Jones
84. WR Trey Palmer
86. TE Josh Whyle
94. LB DeMarvion Overshown
99. S Ji'Ayir Brown
100. RB Chase Brown

Guys I was either super high or low on compared to the consensus board

Guys I ranked higher
WR Marvin Mims(+45 spots)
WR A.T Perry(+40 spots)
DL Keannu Benton(+39 spots)
Edge Zach Harrison(+32)
WR Jalin Hyatt(+29)
LB Noah Sewell(+28)
WR Cedric Tillman(+27)
WR Rashee Rice(+27)
TE Sam Laporta(+25)
DL Gervon Dexter(+24)
IOL Luke Wypler(+24)
OT Jaelyn Duncan(+21)

Guys I ranked lower
WR Jordan Addison(-67)
RB Jahmyr Gibbs(-58)
IOL John Michael Schmitz(-53)
Edge BJ Ojulari(-52)
IOL Steve Avila(-46)
RB Devon Achane(-41)
IOL O'Cyrus Torrence(-41)
WR Josh Downs(-39)
WR Zay Flowers(-38)
Edge Tyree Wilson(-38)
RB Bijan Robinson(-35)
DL Siaki Ika(-29)
Edge Will Mcdonald(-29)
Edge Felix Anudike-Uzomah(-26)
TE Dalton Kincaid(-26)
CB/S Brian Branch(-23)
RB Zach Charbonnet(-22)

Do you rate the players in general or for how they would fit with the Packers specifically?

[MVP2110]

2 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

Do you rate the players in general or for how they would fit with the Packers specifically?

This is my list for the Packers specifically, as an example I like Mingo as a WR but I think he's a perfect fit for GB so that boosted him quite a bit, it's also part of why I knocked Brian Branch, overall I'd probably have him late 20s/early 30s but I don't think he's a good fit for GB so that knocked him down a bit 

[patrickgpe]

@LouisElyThank you! Another great write up. Washington is my favorite player in the draft, 

@MVP2110 Thank you as well, you obviously put a lot of time and effort into those rankings. Well done!

[patrickgpe]

On 4/18/2023 at 3:58 PM, CheezWizHed said:

Good stuff as always @LouisEly.  Washington is my preferred TE.  Clearly will block now... certainly has the physical capabilities to grow as a receiver.  

I do think they will draft a QB regardless of Rodger's situation.  No way is he going to back up Love and I can't see the coaching staff sitting Love now. Trade or retirement at this point. 

I agree that they will draft a QB. I know Bennett has a lot of baggage but maybe GB is the perfect place for him to take a 7th round chance on. 

[nate82]

On 4/17/2023 at 5:52 PM, LouisEly said:

3rd round (#78) – Trey Palmer, WR, Nebraska – speed demon who set Nebraska’s record for receiving yards in a season despite his production tanking when their starting QB went down with injury.  Topped all WRs at the combine with a 4.33 40 and has long arms and strong hands.  Has good burst off the line with a quiet engine that he can turn on and leave defenders in the dust.  Also a great returner, has returned both a punt and a kick for a TD, and was used on jet sweeps and gadget plays.  Route running needs refinement, tends to get by on athleticism over technique.  Eerily similar to Jalin Hyatt, but played with a worse QB and can probably be had a round later.  (Replaces Randall Cobb)
If he’s still available: Jordan Battle, S, Alabama – three year starter for Alabama, which says something with the talent they have.  Highly instinctive player who always knows where he is supposed to be, it’s rare that you will see film where there is a busted coverage on his part.  Mostly lined up as a deep safety, but also has and can play in the box.  Not the most athletic, that might get exposed on the next level, but good enough where he can succeed deep in a split safety alignment like Barry typically plays.  
Don’t be surprised if it’s: Andrei Iosivas, WR, Princeton – WR with plus size and elite athleticism, but questions about playing at a lower level of competition and limited route tree.  Sound familiar?  6’3”, 205, Iosivas is a bit raw because he never participated in spring practice – he was on the track team.  Decorated heptathlete, finished 3rd in the country and set an indoor record in the 60-meter dash.  While he ran a limited route tree, he’s a good route runner and can drop his hips and get in and out of his breaks.  Small-ish hands, but only seven drops for his career.  9.92 RAS.  Playing across from Watson could cause nightmares for defensive coordinators.

If Hooker is available at 78 would the Packers be tempted to draft him?

[patrickgpe]

24 minutes ago, nate82 said:

If Hooker is available at 78 would the Packers be tempted to draft him?

Yes, especially with the (so far) reluctance to sign a back-up. 

[LouisEly]

35 minutes ago, nate82 said:

If Hooker is available at 78 would the Packers be tempted to draft him?

Absolutely.  I was *this* close to putting him as the "Don't be surprised" pick if they get a 2nd from the Jets.  Why not draft a QB with a pick they got for Rodgers?