2023 Packers draft discussion

[homer]

As is my custom, I want GB to trade down from 13 and accumulate picks. Some goober (cough McCarthy cough) really wants Bijan Robinson. I can feel it.

[patrickgpe]

10 hours ago, Sixtolezcano said:

I hope not. Most experts believe there isn’t much difference in players 20-50. With the team as it currently stands (depth) 2 bites of the apple is better than just 1.

I think there could a possibility of the packers moving down at 13 as well, especially if one of 4 QB's fall down that low and a team in the late teens, early 20's really wants one, which could nab a 2024 1st (similar to the Fields trade)

[brewcrewdue80]

13 hours ago, Sixtolezcano said:

I hope not. Most experts believe there isn’t much difference in players 20-50. With the team as it currently stands (depth) 2 bites of the apple is better than just 1.

I don't  think they would use both 2nds. I think Patrick is same when agreeing from my suggestion that 1 of the 2nds would be used to trade back in to 1st. Both 2nds would technically get to 17-20.  So would that be a tier of players better than 20-50 and worthwhile?  

 

[Matt Breen]

Well, the Rodgers trade is done and the draft is almost here.

Assuming we would get one of the Jets second rounders, I had originally had the Packers going after Branch in the 1st, a TE (Musgrave or Washington) and Edge guy (McDonald IV) in the 2nd, and a WR in the 3rd (Reed or Rice). 

However, the trade does give me reason to change thing. The move from #15 to #13 is important, because the there was a lot of talk of the Patriots (who have the 14th selection) being very interested WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. So I was skeptical he'd get past New England.

Well, no more. 

JSN is really a perfect for for GB. He can come in and fill the slot receiver role to perfection. So here's my predictions (again, these are who I think the club will select - not necessarily who I want them to pick).

1st (13) - WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
2nd (42) - TE Luke Musgrave or Darnell Washington
2nd (45) - Edge Will McDonald IV
3rd (78) - S Quan Martin

The 2nd round picks could be easily flip-flopped. 

Also, if the Packers see some like Branch or either TE Michael Mayer or Dalton Kincaid dropping into the lower first round or early second round - wouldn't be shocked to see them package one of their #2s and another pick to move up to grab them (assuming they like that player quite a bit more than Musgrave or Washington). 

Looking forward to the draft. Glad to have the Rodgers stuff behind us.

 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

26 minutes ago, reillymcshane said:

1st (13) - WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Drafting a WR in the 1st round three days after trading your franchise cornerstone QB would be either simply delicious irony, or a tremendous troll job by Gute on the armchair GM porton of this fanbase. 

[Matt Breen]

17 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Drafting a WR in the 1st round three days after trading your franchise cornerstone QB would be either simply delicious irony, or a tremendous troll job by Gute on the armchair GM porton of this fanbase. 

Yes, it would. But I also see a position woefully thin at talent and depth. It’s a big need and JNS seems to be a guy worth the pick. I’ll say the same thing about safety and TE. 

[CheezWizHed]

19 minutes ago, reillymcshane said:

Yes, it would. But I also see a position woefully thin at talent and depth. It’s a big need and JNS seems to be a guy worth the pick. I’ll say the same thing about safety and TE. 

I'm kind of at the point where if JSN isn't there, I say we trade down. Other worthy players, but not enough of a difference; I'd rather have two bites of the apple instead.  Unless you know you are getting a stud S or TE (and I don't see either in the draft), I'd pass on taking the best one high just because of need. Though, it wouldn't shock me to see a CB picked and move Douglas to safety. 

I'm also torn if I actually want JSN or Rashee Rice (not that we can't get both).  Rice is my current draft crush, honestly.  And his comps are Nate Burleson, Brandon Aiyuk, and Davonte Adams (and Adrian Peterson if you include all ball carriers). 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

33 minutes ago, reillymcshane said:

Yes, it would. But I also see a position woefully thin at talent and depth. It’s a big need and JNS seems to be a guy worth the pick. I’ll say the same thing about safety and TE. 

They are very thin at tackle as well. All indications are that Bahk is gone after this year, and Yosh is an UFA. Maybe one of the developmental guys works out, but I'd like to see more of a sure thing. I know they have had luck with mid-round guys in the past, but if one of those blue-chippers is there, they have to consider  it.

[LouisEly]

I have a hard time believing that they'll spend the #13 overall pick on a slot receiver.  Especially one without an elite combination of size and athleticism.  That's just not their MO.

 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

4 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

I have a hard time believing that they'll spend the #13 overall pick on a slot receiver.  Especially one without an elite combination of size and athleticism.  That's just not their MO.

 

He's just the latest WR that Packers Twitter has fallen in love with. I've seen how this movie ends. Typically its with an OT or DT/DE at #13, and Packers Twitter throwing fits. But the big guy is almost always the better choice.

[LouisEly]

13 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

They are very thin at tackle as well. All indications are that Bahk is gone after this year, and Yosh is an UFA.

I don't understand this point of view.  With Bakh and Rodgers gone, they will have plenty of cap space to resign Nijman (or another FA OT).  They have Tom who looked very good for a rookie, and they elevated Jones from the practice squad and kept Walker for a reason.  There will be good OT in next year's draft.

I think OT is a lot like TE last year.  They like the guys in the room more than others think, and they're good for that year.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

11 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

I don't understand this point of view.  With Bakh and Rodgers gone, they will have plenty of cap space to resign Nijman (or another FA OT).  They have Tom who looked very good for a rookie, and they elevated Jones from the practice squad and kept Walker for a reason.  There will be good OT in next year's draft.

I think OT is a lot like TE last year.  They like the guys in the room more than others think, and they're good for that year.

Tom may be solid in time, but needs to add strength to be a starting NFL tackle. Jones and Walker are big time projects. Just saying ... I don't know if I personally would advocate for it, but knowing how this team operates, it wouldn't surprise me whatsoever if tackle is the pick at #13. It's gonna piss off a lot of fans, but in the end, it's hard to argue with replenishing talent in the trenches. Pete Skoronski is the type of guy you can throw out at LT and forget about for the next decade. 

[PeaveyFury]

It's also fair to wonder, IMO, that if Myers doesn't rebound and play better overall in 2023, Tom may end up starting at center.

[PeaveyFury]

Pretty fantastic pre-draft read with this article, particularly the note on 'surplus value' with regard to premium/non-premium positions (and a clear definition of what those are):

https://sumersports.com/the-zone/nfl-draft-proverbs/

I'm not a fan of TE at 13 (and wasn't at 15), so I do think this provides additional merit to them selecting WR/edge/OT there instead of TE despite what the talking heads are mocking to them.

[Fear The Chorizo]

between TE and WR, the Packers simply don't have enough bodies at those positions at present - so I think those positions are the priority in rounds 1-2.  Throw in Edge and I think their 1st two picks are dedicated to those spots.

Going to have another OL drafted mid rounds to maintain depth, but the current roster is thin enough at other positions where OL is an afterthought for this year's draft.  If the line sucks/gets decimated by cuts and injuries this season, then you pick a new franchise cornerstone tackle next year.

[Joseph Zarr]

This made me quite happy last night...the Crew were losing at Home to the Tigers...the Bucks were fulfilling an epic choke job... BUT this gave me comfort. May it be so.

[OldHeidelberg]

I have been an advocate for building inside out and drafting stud lineman on both sides of the ball for a few years now. And with the switch at QB it may be a good time to start. As usual I am a little late getting into the draft but OT seems like a position that may be BPA at 13 and I agree we could use one. I also think we are so close now that trading up for one of the 2 elite Edge guys would be tempting, maybe one gets to 5 or 7 and we could trade up? I think there are some concerns with Wilson's foot that may drop him. Getting to 3 would do it but would take a haul and I am not interested in spending that much on one player until we know what we have in Love. 

[MrTPlush]

27 minutes ago, Joseph Zarr said:

This made me quite happy last night...the Crew were losing at Home to the Tigers...the Bucks were fulfilling an epic choke job... BUT this gave me comfort. May it be so.

I am not sure there was a huge risk of anyone hopping infront of us. anyway. Baltimore and the Chargers were probably the most likely. However, neither has the draft capital depth that makes it likely for them to make a huge jump in the draft. The Ravens really don't have much to offer. The biggest concern is probably the team directly infront of them, Houston. Them taking a WR to pair with a franchise QB wouldn't be shocking...especially when they may come from the same college. 

I am not a huge fan of getting him though.

[Joseph Zarr]

21 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

I am not sure there was a huge risk of anyone hopping infront of us. anyway. Baltimore and the Chargers were probably the most likely. However, neither has the draft capital depth that makes it likely for them to make a huge jump in the draft. The Ravens really don't have much to offer. The biggest concern is probably the team directly infront of them, Houston. Them taking a WR to pair with a franchise QB wouldn't be shocking...especially when they may come from the same college. 

I am not a huge fan of getting him though.

I believe there have been whispers about the Titans, the Texans and the Patriots. Regardless, I've loved Njiba for quite some time. I see him as the absolutely perfect compliment to Watson and Doubs. Obviously, the Packers would have to buck trends to take him. I was just excited to get a bit of good news (even if it is hearsay in the smoke and mirrors of draft week) on an otherwise classic Wisconsin sports night.

[Joseph Zarr]

59 minutes ago, OldHeidelberg said:

I have been an advocate for building inside out and drafting stud lineman on both sides of the ball for a few years now. And with the switch at QB it may be a good time to start. As usual I am a little late getting into the draft but OT seems like a position that may be BPA at 13 and I agree we could use one. I also think we are so close now that trading up for one of the 2 elite Edge guys would be tempting, maybe one gets to 5 or 7 and we could trade up? I think there are some concerns with Wilson's foot that may drop him. Getting to 3 would do it but would take a haul and I am not interested in spending that much on one player until we know what we have in Love. 

It would be hard to complain about taking a blue chip DL/OL/Edge/CB in Rd 1 despite my cravings for an offensive weapon. It's where you build the foundations. We do have quite a bit of OL depth, however, so it may be a scenario where the personnel staff sees that 'Need' come into play with comparable talents. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

I've got a ton of hesitancy using a mid-1st rounder on a guy with average measurables who had a monster Rose Bowl game (not a CFP game, so in essence meaningless) in early 2022 because the #1 and #2 receivers on that team opted out of that game to prepare for last season's draft and Stroud just fed him the ball all game long against soft zone coverages by inferior defenders.  Then, he plays in just 3 games last season while dealing with a lingering hamstring injury.

To me Smith-Njigba profiles as a 2nd round pick that will get overdrafted in a thin year.  I'd rather go different position at #13 and then see if a WR like Johnston is available late round 1 or early round 2 and try to use available draft capital to pick him to fill out the WR room.

 

[MrTPlush]

Just now, Joseph Zarr said:

 I see him as the absolutely perfect compliment to Watson and Doubs. 

The perfect complement would seem like a guy who is a force in the redzone and a threat for a jump ball...so more like Johnston. 

I don't hate JSN, I think he would certainly be a big help to Love in the short game, but for a guy to primarily play the slot. #13 is hefty high for that.

[Matt Breen]

I think adding JSN would open up the game for the other receivers. And if we could get a TE that can step up and play right away - we're gold. 

I think the front office is going to want to help out Love as much as they can so they can figure out if he's the long term guy. And let's face it - they don't want to look like idiots. If Love comes in and bombs bad - they look like fools for picking him - and forcing out Rodgers (at least that will be the narrative). 

Doesn't mean the team has to get JSN. But it sure is tempting to load up on some offensive skill players. 

[Joseph Zarr]

26 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

The perfect complement would seem like a guy who is a force in the redzone and a threat for a jump ball...so more like Johnston. 

I don't hate JSN, I think he would certainly be a big help to Love in the short game, but for a guy to primarily play the slot. #13 is hefty high for that.

Johnston, for whatever reasons, actually has a very pedestrian (if not below-average) contested catch rate. He has fallen down boards for reasons like this - you'd think he would sky above CB's and claim that territory. That is not the case. If we are going to worry about the slot label in 2023, I think that's the wrong approach. Cooper Kupp is a slot guy, for example. Chris Olave, a guy the Packers loved last season is primarily a slot guy (Njibs greatly outperformed both Olave and Garrett Wilson while in the same receiving corps). And, like a dominant nickel CB, it carries just as much weight in 2023 as the outside wideouts. My opinion, of course. And, please don't get me wrong here: I simply love Njiba and what he brings to the football field. If they went the route of a Johnston I'm going to root like all get out for him to succeed.

I would propose: take the best WR in the draft in Njiba (if he's there) and worry about the proverbial jump ball guys with the gluttony of really good athletic TE's.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think adding JSN would open up the game for the other receivers.

That theory would've been alot easier to know for sure had JSN actually played meaningful snaps last season without Olave and Wilson in the same receiving corps as him and Harrison, Jr., too.  I think the counter argument to this is it's tough to tell how much of JSN's 2021 production was a direct result of being the possession receiver in an absolutely loaded receiver room at OSU with top 10 first round talents like Olave/Wilson/Harrison Jr. occupying all sorts of coverage on the outside, and a quarterback with the potential to be a #1 overall pick throwing them the ball.