2023 Packers draft discussion

[adambr2]

We'll be on the clock at #15. Here's an off the wall idea that should go around that range:

#15: Bijan Robinson, RB Texas

Hear me out on this, Aaron Jones has a cap hit of over $20M next year and that certainly isn't happening. Maybe he's back at a reduced cost or maybe it's simply time to move on. 

Dillon is just a guy. He'll be back in a backup role next year in the last year of his rookie contract and then likely gone. 

We've constantly added pieces for the defense, and with Love taking over next year it's time to add one for the offense. I know RBs are a dying breed but Bijan checks every box. Adding a likely generational RB to take some pressure off of Love in his young career behind a good young OL and talented young receivers could be the perfect way to get Love's starting career going. 

[nate82]

54 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

We'll be on the clock at #15. Here's an off the wall idea that should go around that range:

#15: Bijan Robinson, RB Texas

Hear me out on this, Aaron Jones has a cap hit of over $20M next year and that certainly isn't happening. Maybe he's back at a reduced cost or maybe it's simply time to move on. 

Dillon is just a guy. He'll be back in a backup role next year in the last year of his rookie contract and then likely gone. 

We've constantly added pieces for the defense, and with Love taking over next year it's time to add one for the offense. I know RBs are a dying breed but Bijan checks every box. Adding a likely generational RB to take some pressure off of Love in his young career behind a good young OL and talented young receivers could be the perfect way to get Love's starting career going. 

He would definitely be there at 15 and may still be available later in the first round possibly into the 2nd. 

[wallus]

A RB in the first round? No.

[adambr2]

I love how people scoff at the notion of taking a RB in the 1st round when we drafted a RB in the 2nd round as a backup RB and this 1st round RB is arguably the most talented player in the draft and arguably one of the top 5 RB prospects out of college in history. 

[yourout]

safety...safety...safety.

Or free agent safety.

[adambr2]

I mean yeah we do need a safety. Or two. Woof. 

 

But the class isn't very top heavy. We're not getting Brian Brach. So I'm thinking safety might be a Day 2 pick. 

[GAME05]

Tight end.

No telling if Tonyan will be back, Deguera isn't a starter and Marcedes just can't be your #1.

With the corners we have I think we could get by with marginal safeties if needs be. Hopefully someone who knows how to tackle.

[Samurai Bucky]

7 hours ago, GAME05 said:

Tight end.

... and an interior defensive lineman.  There were too many times where they did not control the line of scrimmage on the defensive side.

[Sixtolezcano]

1. Right Offensive Tackle

2. Defensive Tackle 

3. Safety

3B. Edge Pass Rusher

4. Tight End

 

If Rodgers retires/traded move QB to #2.

 

[LouisEly]

In 2021 A.J. Dillon was 19th among all RBs in total yards from scrimmage.  Impressive given that his teammate Aaron Jones was 14th among all RBs. 

In 2022 he was 27th among all RBs in total yards from scrimmage.  Impressive given that his teammate Aaron Jones was 7th among all RBs, 9th overall.

Pretty good for a backup.  I think he's a little better than "just a guy".

[patrickgpe]

I’d like Mayer or Addison at 15.

if they don’t get a te in the first Washington from Georgia makes a lot of sense in the 2nd

[wallus]

If you ever draft a RB in the first round, you do it when you are a Super Bowl contender. To do it when you are likely going to rebuild is not smart.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I actually like the idea of a RB early - if it's the right guy, and Robinson would fit the bill as the right guy.  In this year's draft, it wouldn't surprise me if he goes much higher than his current projection, though.  Dillon is a bellcow-type back, but I don't like the idea of paying him a ton of $ to play 3-4 more seasons in Green Bay and live through the inevitable injuries/wear and tear of a power running back.  So, provided Jones is a cap casualty the RB room is pretty thin, especially 2-3 seasons out.  

As a roster, this team needs new safeties, TE, RB, and OLB.  Interior DL would be nice but assuming Clark is still here next season you have to roll with Wyatt next to him based on what he did down the stretch and the fact he's a 1st round talent and fill in behind it with veteran depth.

[homer]

I'm ok with an RB as long as it's not round 1. 

[nate82]

Probably too early for this but I did one for the Packers when I was running my mock for the Bears.  Packers move back two spots and make a trade with the Steelers.  I think this fills all of the Packers needs and I think they take a QB this year as I believe either Love or Rodgers will not be on the team in '23.  The only one I am not sure on is Gibbs at 78. 

 

 

And I know you all are interested in my Bears mock!!!!  This is my crazy pre draft trade with the Cardinals and Seahawks and then a draft day trade with the Falcons.

[Hacksaw Jim Duggan]

Offensive lineman, defensive lineman, wide receiver, running back, and tight end.  Plus a kicker!  6 positions. Not a lot of glaring holes but better depth is needed.

[Hacksaw Jim Duggan]

I think there is a size difference in footballs from college to the NFL.  So I like QB's with bigger hands, I think college QB's arm strength translates better.  I think Hooker is a really good project.  

[adambr2]

15 hours ago, LouisEly said:

In 2021 A.J. Dillon was 19th among all RBs in total yards from scrimmage.  Impressive given that his teammate Aaron Jones was 14th among all RBs. 

In 2022 he was 27th among all RBs in total yards from scrimmage.  Impressive given that his teammate Aaron Jones was 7th among all RBs, 9th overall.

Pretty good for a backup.  I think he's a little better than "just a guy".

In this category, here were guys ahead of him:

Jamaal Williams, Tyler Allgeier, Devin Singletary, Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson

He was also near the bottom of this group in both YPC and yards per target.

Especially for a 2nd round pick, the above names are nearly the definition of "just a guy."

[CheezWizHed]

RB is a sneaky need.  Even if Jones stays, he has been beat up a lot.  If this is an RB that is a major pass catch as well as runner, I don't see an issue with using a 1st round pick. 

There are general rules of thumb that RBs, S, TE, and MLB aren't good 1st round picks.  Generally this is true... but it is also typical that special players at those positions are HUGE difference makers for teams.  So if you grab one of them in the first round, you better be sure they are one of the special ones.  But boy oh boy if you get one of the special ones.  Their rarity makes it hard for other teams to match up with.  (e.g. Kelce is the most important weapon Mahome has had). 

But we also have a LOT of needs:

• Safety - Amos is probably gone as a FA and starting falling off.  Ford and Savage (though improved) don't make a great starting duo.
• TE - We have Deguara under contract next year.  Big Bob could (and should) come back - maybe a one year prove it deal.  Marcedes might come back if Rodgers does.  But really need some young, talented blood here. 
• WR - Still need to grab another one in the top 3 picks, IMO. 
• OLB - Engebare has been a great pickup.  But with Gary out most of the year and P-Smith getting older the more expensive... we could use more here (always need more pass rush).
• RB - If Jones stays, great time to invest in the next 4th/5th round RB.  Or if Jones is cut, then that escalates. 
• OL - 4th rounders are very, very good to us.

[LouisEly]

And defensive end - Lowry and Reed are free agents. 

[superfly]

 

Offense heavy for me, Priority 1 is an early receiver. Love (And Rodgers) isn’t going to succeed with what we’ve got. The more weapons the better.

 

i also am an advocate of a QB every single year. Churn the backups and search for the next franchise guy every year, not wait until it’s time to look. The more guys the more chance to hit on one.

[CheezWizHed]

16 hours ago, LouisEly said:

And defensive end - Lowry and Reed are free agents. 

With Clark, Wyatt, and TJ Slaton, I'd say our starting DL is pretty solid.  We also have Ford and Chris Slayton as development players.  A vet FA like Reed or a lower (4th/5th) round draft pick with an UDFA or two is probably all we need. 

[CheezWizHed]

QB - Rodgers, Love, Etling - I'm guessing only one of Rodgers/Love will survive this offseason.  I could see a mid-round selection happening in that case. 

RB - Jones, Dillon, Goodson, Taylor.  Jones is the playmaker.  Dillon is a starting caliber RB, but not overly dangerous.  Group is solid as a whole.  There is a short term risk that Jones is cut for salary cap reasons and longer term risk in his health.  If cut, a higher playmaker pick could be necessary.  If not, a lower level development RB would be good. 

WR - Doubs, Watson, Toure, *Others.  Cobb and Lazard are FAs. I can see Lazard coming back as he is more valuable to us than to other teams. I'm guessing Cobb is gone.  There is good upside in what we have but also risk.  We also have zero depth (*not even worth mentioning the various players we churned through on the PS). Using our 1st round pick wouldn't be surprising based on need...except we normally don't.

TE - Deguara, *Others.  Tonyan, Lewis, and Davis are all FAs.  I think Tonyan is going to be a hot commodity as an upside TE (got better the further into his recovery).  If Rodgers is here, I see Mercedes coming back otherwise retired.  Davis could probably return, but is that good?  Pretty bad situation as high draft capitol often doesn't produce year 1.  But still need to invest here.

OL - Bakh, Jenkins, Myers, Runyan, Tom, Newman, Jones, Tenuta, Walker, Rhyan, Nijman* - Pretty solid starting 5.  Myers plateaued, but still ok.  Runyan showed some limitations and could be a target for upgrade.  Might need more G depth, but honestly we are pretty solid at T depth. Assuming Bakh stays, I'd be ok standing pat here (but 4th round T/Gs are so good to us...). Nijman is an RFA, but after losing his spot to Tom, will we offer? 

DL - Clark, TJ Slaton, Wyatt, Chris Slayton, Ford - Decent starting 3.  Development depth.  Could use a vet backup in case our development players flat-line.  Or maybe a mid-round DL. 

OLB - Gary*, Smith, Enagbare, Garvin - Gary will be out for a while and possibly not overly impactful on early returns.  Smith and Enagbare brought pressure, but few sacks in his absence. Hollins was decent as a backup and could return.   Using our top pick (#15 ) wouldn't shock me here. 

ILB - Campbell, Walker, McDuffie.  - Actually the best ILB depth we have had in a long time.  Barnes was almost a luxury (and as a FA will most likely leave).  Grab another mid-late pick with a UDFA or two and we are probably set here. 

CB - Alexander, Douglas, Stokes, SJC - I wouldn't be opposed to moving Douglas to safety, but he was much better at outside CB than in the slot.  Will be interesting to see what they do next year with the first 3.  Hopefully Nixon returns. Was surprisingly good as a slot CB and returner.  Seems to be more vision on returns than pure speed. If Douglas goes to safety, I see a higher pick at CB necessary.

S - Savage, Carpenter, Gaines. In the first half of the season, the thought of these three being our only safeties was terrifying. Gaines proved to have some value in play and Savage did make improvements in the second half.  But still this is a glaring hole.  Bringing back Ford shouldn't be too hard.  But a high draft pick here is probable unless Douglas moves over. 

ST - Coco, O'Donnell - Will this be the year Crosby hangs it up?  I think we could bring him back cheaply.  Accuracy is still good, distance is ok, but waning. Coco was a forgotten man, which is ideal for the LS.  O'Donnell had a good year.  I could see a 6th/7th round draft pick at K if Crosby retires. 

1st-3rd round pick priorities: OLB, WR, TE, S/CB

4th-7th round pick priorities: DL, RB, QB, CB/S, K

[LouisEly]

Problem is they only have nine picks, and three are in the seventh round which you can't really count on to contribute.

With their first six picks they are going to have to find at least one S, TE, WR, DE (Clark, Slaton, and Ford are NTs, only DE is Wyatt, Slayton was on the practice squad all year for a reason and Ford never saw game action all season for a reason), and Edge rusher.  In the 7th there's a good chance they might have to double-up on WR, S, and TE.  That's eight picks spoken for.  In fact, if Amos isn't back they are going to have to double up on safety, if Lazard/Cobb aren't back they will have to double up on WR.  Sounds like any future that Savage has is at nickel.  All other positions are a luxury.

[HarveysWBs]

Working on the theory that if Rodgers comes back, Love probably won’t:  the need to use a higher pick on a QB skyrockets in the event Rodgers returns, right?  There’s a ton of pressure on this draft, because the team is either in transition this year or next, you’d have to think.  So Gute has to plan for both the possibility of a reload AND a soft rebuild.

If it’s the season of Love, then you can draft for a rebuild while you see what the kid has, and get your cap situation straightened out a little.
 

If Rodgers is back, I’d assume one or two needs have to be met via free agency, and whatever financial shenanigans or cap casualties have to happen to make that work probably happens (bye, Jones, you’ll be missed). Any solid FA safeties likely to be out there?