2023 Packers draft discussion

[MrTPlush]

On 1/18/2023 at 12:10 PM, homer said:

I guess if they want more Raider fans than opposing team fans it does matter. If they don't then...

I am sure they don't care at all. Neither did the Rams/Chargers when they moved to LA. Money is money. 

[Matt Breen]

Draft is still a ways away, but it's fun to speculate. What are people's thoughts on the following players as our top pick - which is #15.

• S Brian Branch - Alabama
• TE Michael Mayer - Notre Dame
• WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba| - Ohio State
• WR Quinten Johnston - TCU
• WR Jordan Addison - USC
• OT Broderick Jones, Georgia

I'm guessing the top Edge rushers (Anderson, Wilson, Murphy) will be gone at #15. And I'm guessing the top two Offensive Tackles will be as well (Jones, Skoronski).

Some good corners in the draft as well. Never go wrong with corners. Don't see need for QB or RB (although RB Bijan Robinson would be a nice pick if we moved any of our backs). 

Anyone else have a guy they would like at #15? Thoughts on the above players?

[nate82]

Branch fits the Packers defensive scheme almost perfectly.  QB probably not in the 1st round but third or fourth I think the Packers have to think about it.  The only way I see the Packers taking a QB in the first is if they trade Rodgers and they get a top 10 pick for him.

Jaxon I don’t believe will be a good NFL WR.  It would be foolish to take Mayer in the 1st where the Packers are picking.  Van Ness could be a sleeper at the Packers pick.  

[LouisEly]

Mayer's former teammate Kyle Hamilton was quoted as saying that if there's one thing he learned during the draft process "it's that NFL teams love them some Michael Mayer". 

He's not exciting, but teams covet him because the list of TEs who are both good receivers and blockers is a very short list.  Musgrave is getting some love because of the athleticism he's shown as a receiver during the Senior Bowl practices, but he also got blown up in run blocking in some of those reps as well. 

I don't foresee a tackle unless both Rodgers and Bakh get traded (Raiders and Giants have cap room for both).  Even if Bakh gets traded, they could easily lock up Nijman on a multi-year deal leaving a good young duo in Nijman and Tom.  Not elite, but good enough to invest in other areas of need and give time to see how the young tackles they have develop.  I don't think Tom is strong enough to play interior - he will get shoved around by big, strong DTs. 

I think it's a two-horse race between Branch and Mayer.  Given the run on WRs last year I don't see Johnston making it out of the top 10 given the lack of #1-type WRs in this draft.  If both Branch and Mayer are gone, I foresee a trade down and grabbing Musgrave or Washington late in the 1st/early 2nd or...

Spoiler alert - watch for the combine/pro day testing for Keion White, DE/Edge, Georgia Tech.

[Matt Breen]

Whether we have Rodgers or Love at the helm in 2023, I think a likely pick for the Packers is a WR (Addison, Johnston, Smith-Njigba), TE (Michael Mayer) or S (Branch). 

If someone drops - such as a highly rated edge rusher (such as Murphy) or O-lineman (Skoronski) - then by all means - grab 'em. 

I'd love to see some players that can step in and contribute right away. 

Still really early in the draft process. So much can change. 

 

[Matt Breen]

Thoughts on the top TEs in the draft.

Michael Mayer is seen by most people as the top guy due to his good overall skills as a receiver and blocker. If the club wants him, they will have to take him at #15 (assuming he drops to us). So, Mayer aside, what are people's thoughts on the next tier of players, including:

• Dalton Kincaid - Utah
• Darnell Washington - Georgia 
• Luke Musgrave - Oregon St.

It's possible one or more of these guys could available to us in the 2nd round - and wondering what people thought of them.

[patrickgpe]

Washington intrigues me, just based on his size and pedigree The other 2 I really haven't seem much of so probably won't have an opinion until closer to April. 

[Brewcrew82]

I want Mayer so bad. He’s the clear top TE in the draft imo and a top 10 player overall. All of the upper echelon teams in the NFL right now have a top tight end (Kelce, Kittle, Goedert, etc). It’s well past time for the Packers to join the list, as the position has basically been ignored since Finley.

[MrTPlush]

I would take Johnston if he dropped to us...but I find that pretty hard to imagine. I figure either a team in front of us takes him or some team will trade up to get him before #15 ever comes on the clock.

I wouldn't draft Mayer at #15.

[GAME05]

I heavily lean toward Rodgers coming back next season and I wonder how that might effect the team's drafting strategy. If you're figuring one more year of Rodgers do you draft a TE which may be the biggest need, but it's a position which usually takes a couple years before they get a handle on things? WRs have their own acclimation period but they tend to contribute more their first year.

I think one of those TEs is something of a Marcedes Lewis clone and just maybe might fall to later in the 2nd. It'd be odd, but I wouldn't be upset with two TEs in the first two rounds.

[Oxy]

That PFF trading mechanism is completely out of whack. I traded Rodgers for Garrett Wilson AND all of the Jets picks.  Needless to say, the draft turned out pretty good.  In think I ended up with Will Levis, Mayer, and Brian Branch in addition to getting Garrett Wilson...

[CheezWizHed]

2 hours ago, GAME05 said:

I heavily lean toward Rodgers coming back next season and I wonder how that might effect the team's drafting strategy. If you're figuring one more year of Rodgers do you draft a TE which may be the biggest need, but it's a position which usually takes a couple years before they get a handle on things? WRs have their own acclimation period but they tend to contribute more their first year.

I think one of those TEs is something of a Marcedes Lewis clone and just maybe might fall to later in the 2nd. It'd be odd, but I wouldn't be upset with two TEs in the first two rounds.

TE is the one area I hope we double dip - draft+FA.  We won't have much room to add expensive FAs, but this is probably the best area to use what we have.  Hooper is a FA and we went after him in a trade, so perhaps he is a target.  Maybe a tR(odgers)ade with LV to bring back Waller?

I wouldn't want to see a first/second round TE draft.  Maybe like last year's WR - 2nd and 4th or a 1st and 6th.  But bringing in a vet plus a high draft pick makes more sense.

[Sixtolezcano]

It is really difficult to project players prior to the combine and college pro days, so much changes afterwards.  This year’s draft depends on trading Rodgers. At the moment the 2 best options in need of a QB are either the Raiders or Jets.  From a Packers viewpoint the best case scenario would be LV where the 7th pick would be in play. If they are able to swindle this pick from the Raiders I would hope they would prioritize the Edge or OT positions. Edge Rushers that might be available at #7 would be:

Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech, Keion White, Ga. Tech, Miles Murphy, Clemson

at #13 (Jets) or #15: Nolan Smith and Derick Hall from Ga, or Lukas Van Ness, Iowa.

Offensive Tackles- Paris Johnson Jr., OSU or Broderick Jones, Ga.,

*Peter Skoronski, Northwestern (currently there is a chance he might be available. But Bob’s grandson could drop a bit with combine or pro day results).

Picking a TE or S in the top 15 picks is more of a gamble. There always seems to be good ones later in the draft (although S has become almost as important as the big guys ). If you’re looking for a Kittle or Kelce the most similar TE in this draft would be Dalton Kincaid from Utah. He is very quick off the ball, explosive, a fluid route runner, hard to bring down and is great after the catch. Michael Mayer lacks Kincaid’s elite athleticism and speed, however he is more physical and a much better run blocker. However if your looking for a blocking TE, the massive Darnell Washington from Ga. would be a better bet than Mayer, but wasn’t used as much as a receiver at Ga. What makes me nervous in regards to Mayer is Notre Dame overhype. 

The 2 safeties with 1-2 round grades are Brian Branch from Alabama and Antonio Johnson from Texas A & M. Both have excellent tackling skills which always is a Packer weakness. Branch is the better pass defender with Johnson better against the run.

Of course if Rodgers is traded to LV, my dream would be that one of the 4 QBs would fall and still be available at #7…….maybe Will Levis from Kentucky, C.J. Stroud from OSU, Anthony Richardson, Fla. (likely) or Bryce Young from Alabama would be a great option if they still have any questions about Jordan Love.

 

 

[Matt Breen]

Assuming the QB is Love or Rodgers, I don't think the picks should be very different. TE, WR, Edge, S - all major needs. Doesn't mean you don't grab and OL or whatever if someone falls to us, but I think the moves are mostly the same.

[yourout]

Anyone know who the highest rated safety in the draft is.

 

On edit.... Guess i need to read up thread before posting...Sixto already touched on it.

[RedStickBrew]

27 minutes ago, yourout said:

Anyone know who the highest rated safety in the draft is.

 

On edit.... Guess i need to read up thread before posting...Sixto already touched on it.

I believe Branch is the only true safety with a first round grade.  Johnson, I've read, is looked at as more of a slot corner in the NFL. I'd guess Branch goes pretty high.

[Matt Breen]

16 hours ago, RedStickBrew said:

I believe Branch is the only true safety with a first round grade.  Johnson, I've read, is looked at as more of a slot corner in the NFL. I'd guess Branch goes pretty high.

Branch fits our needs really well. He could be gone before we pick - but we shall see. Safeties tend to drop a bit on draft day as they aren't that sexy of selections. He'd be a solid value at #15.

Johnson is currently looked at as a late 1st/early 2nd round pick. The tendency for safeties to drop might get him to us in the 2nd round - but that's unlikely at this time.

Of course, all that can change with the combine and pro day results. A guy runs a bit slow or whatever and he can drop really quickly. 

[LouisEly]

On 2/22/2023 at 11:04 PM, reillymcshane said:

Thoughts on the top TEs in the draft.

Michael Mayer is seen by most people as the top guy due to his good overall skills as a receiver and blocker. If the club wants him, they will have to take him at #15 (assuming he drops to us). So, Mayer aside, what are people's thoughts on the next tier of players, including:

• Dalton Kincaid - Utah
• Darnell Washington - Georgia 
• Luke Musgrave - Oregon St.

It's possible one or more of these guys could available to us in the 2nd round - and wondering what people thought of them.

The TEs will get overdrafted.  There are 5-6 good ones in this draft, then a huge dropoff. 

• Meyer - depends on what he runs.  If he clocks in at 4.65 or better he will be gone by #15.  His PFF grade last year was 92.5.
• Kincaid - depends on what he measures (and runs).  He's listed at 6'4", 240, but I don't see that size on film.  If he comes in under that he will need to run sub-4.6 to get drafted in the top two rounds.  I saw a couple of their games and I believe in the Pac-10 championship game he had a horrible drop in the end zone that would have been a TD.  Everyone has drops, but he was wide open facing the QB with a chest-high pass.  Easiest pass you're going to get.  I'm not a fan. 
• Washington - one of those guys whose talent may have been hidden by the system and what he was asked to do.  If he tests well, at that size he won't make it out of the first round.  Career average of 17.2 ypc.
• Musgrave - late 1st to mid-2nd, depending on how teams value his blocking (which at the Senior Bowl wasn't good).  Limited film due to missing most of 2022 with injury.
• If the Packers strike out on the top guys, at the next tier is Payne Durham of Purdue who might be able to be had in the 4th.  Durham looked good at the Senior Bowl and is one of my sleepers.  Other than Durham you have LaPorta in there, maybe one or two small-school guys in the mid rounds, and then a huge dropoff to 7th round/UDFA talent.

[Matt Breen]

16 hours ago, LouisEly said:

The TEs will get overdrafted.  There are 5-6 good ones in this draft, then a huge dropoff. 

• Meyer - depends on what he runs.  If he clocks in at 4.65 or better he will be gone by #15.  His PFF grade last year was 92.5.
• Kincaid - depends on what he measures (and runs).  He's listed at 6'4", 240, but I don't see that size on film.  If he comes in under that he will need to run sub-4.6 to get drafted in the top two rounds.  I saw a couple of their games and I believe in the Pac-10 championship game he had a horrible drop in the end zone that would have been a TD.  Everyone has drops, but he was wide open facing the QB with a chest-high pass.  Easiest pass you're going to get.  I'm not a fan. 
• Washington - one of those guys whose talent may have been hidden by the system and what he was asked to do.  If he tests well, at that size he won't make it out of the first round.  Career average of 17.2 ypc.
• Musgrave - late 1st to mid-2nd, depending on how teams value his blocking (which at the Senior Bowl wasn't good).  Limited film due to missing most of 2022 with injury.
• If the Packers strike out on the top guys, at the next tier is Payne Durham of Purdue who might be able to be had in the 4th.  Durham looked good at the Senior Bowl and is one of my sleepers.  Other than Durham you have LaPorta in there, maybe one or two small-school guys in the mid rounds, and then a huge dropoff to 7th round/UDFA talent.

Thanks.

I was reading it's one of the deepest TE drafts in years. Will be interesting to see if we go there.

[PeaveyFury]

I appreciate the TE thoughts as well. Deep draft which should play into Green Bay's needs, but as noted, the combine could result in overdrafts. The only one I could be convinced to like at 15 right now is Meyer because he seems to be complete. I'm hoping one of the tier behind him make it to 45, as I think any of them in the 2nd are good value.

Really, if you think that edge, TE, WR, and safety are where the Packers should look to, it's a pretty good draft class for those positions. Obviously pending measurables, scheme fit etc.

[LouisEly]

I disagree on the TE depth.  There are maybe 5 guys that could go in the top two rounds, which is more than most years, but after that there is a huge dropoff.  Barring some surprising performances at the combine/pro day, maybe 10 TEs that could get drafted before the 7th round.  That's why I think that they'll get overdrafted - there will be a scramble to get those top 4-6 guys (Mayer, Washington, Musgrave, Kincaid, maybe LaPorta & Durham).  Guys like Kraft, Schoonmaker, Whyle, Mallory, Latu will have to show something at the combine/pro days, but are likely backups at best in the pros.

[LouisEly]

Arrest warrant issued for Jalen Carter in connection with the vehicle death of his teammate Devin Willock after the national championship game.  Allegedly he and the girl driving the other vehicle were racing, driving recklessly, swerving in and out of traffic, driving in the oncoming lane.  The girl who was driving the other vehicle apparently had a BAC of .197.  Carter is being charged with misdemeanors at this point, but have to think that this is going to make him drop quite a bit as the behavior risk just shot up.

[GAME05]

I'd imagine agents must really bang their heads against a wall when one quick, stupid decision suddenly costs their client a couple million bucks by getting knocked down in the draft like he'll be.

[Matt Breen]

19 hours ago, LouisEly said:

Arrest warrant issued for Jalen Carter in connection with the vehicle death of his teammate Devin Willock after the national championship game.  Allegedly he and the girl driving the other vehicle were racing, driving recklessly, swerving in and out of traffic, driving in the oncoming lane.  The girl who was driving the other vehicle apparently had a BAC of .197.  Carter is being charged with misdemeanors at this point, but have to think that this is going to make him drop quite a bit as the behavior risk just shot up.

I was reading that there were already some 'maturity' questions about Carter. Everything has come really easy for him, and there are some questions as to his dedication to the game and so forth. He's just never had to work hard to be great so some wonder what will happen when he gets to the NFL. The scary part is if it things actually click for the guy - and he realizes he can be more than just 'good' - but 'great' - by working hard, studying, etc. 

[MrTPlush]

I’d draft him. Not like this type of stuff doesn’t fit in with what loads of guys do every year in the NFL. Probably wouldn’t even get suspended.