Twins extend Pablo Lopez for four years, $73m

[Brock Beauchamp]

Lopez, like the Big Three, was due to be a free agent after the 2024 season.

Now, he's probably a step down from Burnes/Woodruff but he's a solid #2 starter with some upside still in the arm.

This feels wildly team-friendly to me but the Twins only acquired the guy via trade a couple of months ago. There's no historical good-will between the two sides, as they only just met. The Twins get one arb year plus three FA seasons, pushing Lopez free agency back to the 2028 season.

I'm becoming increasingly frustrated with this front office and its lack of extensions.

[nate82]

4 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I'm becoming increasingly frustrated with this front office and its lack of extensions.

As the old saying goes it takes two to tango.  With Burnes it is just not an option for the Brewers to extend him with Yelich on the team.  It is just not financially possible for the Brewers to do this.  Adames is probably looking at a Baez or Swanson type of a deal.  Not all that unreasonable but not someone I would want the Brewers to lock up long term. 

Look I know there are plenty of people who want to see the Brewers to lock up the players they have but I don't think it is necessary to do so especially for ones so close to FA.  Chourio, Wiemer, Mitchell, Turang and Frelick sure offer extension for them and even see if the Brewers could extend Contreras. 

Woodruff I would wait until he comes back and see if he is the same if he is then sign him to an extension if he is willing to sign one that is reasonable. 

I would also look at giving Anderson an extension maybe buy out one or two years of FA.  Something like an extension of 2-years $14.5m for Anderson with a mutual option of $8m for a third year.  Tellez is another player the Brewers could extend cheaply but I am not sure they should.  Basically the players the Brewers could extend are scraping the bottom of the barrel or younger players.

I am more of the mindset of if you can't extend the players within their first or second year in MLB then it is best to just go year to year.  After year 2 the player gets closer to FA and it will cost the team closer to FA money. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, nate82 said:

As the old saying goes it takes two to tango.  With Burnes it is just not an option for the Brewers to extend him with Yelich on the team.  It is just not financially possible for the Brewers to do this.  Adames is probably looking at a Baez or Swanson type of a deal.  Not all that unreasonable but not someone I would want the Brewers to lock up long term. 

Look I know there are plenty of people who want to see the Brewers to lock up the players they have but I don't think it is necessary to do so especially for ones so close to FA.  Chourio, Wiemer, Mitchell, Turang and Frelick sure offer extension for them and even see if the Brewers could extend Contreras. 

Woodruff I would wait until he comes back and see if he is the same if he is then sign him to an extension if he is willing to sign one that is reasonable. 

I would also look at giving Anderson an extension maybe buy out one or two years of FA.  Something like an extension of 2-years $14.5m for Anderson with a mutual option of $8m for a third year.  Tellez is another player the Brewers could extend cheaply but I am not sure they should.  Basically the players the Brewers could extend are scraping the bottom of the barrel or younger players.

I am more of the mindset of if you can't extend the players within their first or second year in MLB then it is best to just go year to year.  After year 2 the player gets closer to FA and it will cost the team closer to FA money. 

It definitely takes two to tango. My frustration is the complete lack of extensions, not that they missed on any single player. For a long time, Woodruff has felt like the obvious choice here. Burnes is too pricey and has the hardware, Adames is kinda scary long-term.

But had the Brewers jumped on an extension 18 months ago, one of them should have been affordable. Now with each passing day, it feels any extension of the big three is more unlikely.

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Lopez, like the Big Three, was due to be a free agent after the 2024 season.

Now, he's probably a step down from Burnes/Woodruff but he's a solid #2 starter with some upside still in the arm.

This feels wildly team-friendly to me but the Twins only acquired the guy via trade a couple of months ago. There's no historical good-will between the two sides, as they only just met. The Twins get one arb year plus three FA seasons, pushing Lopez free agency back to the 2028 season.

I'm becoming increasingly frustrated with this front office and its lack of extensions.

Sure, but look at Jose Berrios, he was smart to turn down the Twins extension overtures as he did better for himself.
 

Plus the Twins are a good example of how extensions don’t always work out either… while not pitchers, the Twins missed with Max Kepler and Dobnak. Polanco’s extension doesn’t look real good right now, and they owe a soon to be 30 year old Buxton 90 million dollars from now to the end of his extension when he hasn’t had 400 PAs in a season since he was 23.

[wiguy94]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I'm becoming increasingly frustrated with this front office and its lack of extensions.

Just because Lopez signed a garbage deal doesn’t mean Woodruff, Burnes or Adames would. 

Im becoming increasingly frustrated by you constantly moaning about how much better the Padres and Twins are being run here on the Brewers page. 

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

It definitely takes two to tango. My frustration is the complete lack of extensions, not that they missed on any single player. For a long time, Woodruff has felt like the obvious choice here. Burnes is too pricey and has the hardware, Adames is kinda scary long-term.

But had the Brewers jumped on an extension 18 months ago, one of them should have been affordable. Now with each passing day, it feels any extension of the big three is more unlikely.

Lack of extensions for a long time? We have had 3 just in the last few years. Yelich, Ashby, and Peralta. 

[tmwiese55]

Woodruff was the one that made sense 1-2 years ago.  He's hitting FA at an older age and due to coming up later if he were to get hurt it more affects his earnings as he'll be older at FA. Basically, he was at risk of being the next Jimmy Nelson.  And with a hurt shoulder now he might be in trouble a bit on his 200 mil payday.

OTOH, him getting hurt is exactly why its probably technically smarter to go year to year with him. If he's Nelson you're now not on the hook for like 100 mil the next 5 years.   But there was probably a Logan Webb type contract at some point in the past that could've found a middle ground of him locking in money but MKE getting 2-3 years more of control (and only to age 35ish rather than 39ish like some of these megadeals). 

[jay87shot]

It's not like we are against extensions, we did sign Ashby and Peralta. I think we should wait until the offseason on the big 3 and see if we can make it work to keep 1, maybe a can't pass up trade comes together and makes that a bit easier. I wouldn't extend Rowdy, Lauer, Houser, or Urias just because all of those are far from a sure thing. Signing Anderson would be nice but I think that can wait a couple months. I would be all over extending Mitchell, Contreras, and Turang at this point if we could get 7-8 year deals and buy out 2-3 years of arby on each for 10-15 million I think I would take the risk. Devin Williams is the only other obvious extension candidate and I think the Hader logic stands that paying a reliever 15+ million at any point is not logical for a team that will never be in the top 15 in payroll.

[Brock Beauchamp]

52 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Sure, but look at Jose Berrios, he was smart to turn down the Twins extension overtures as he did better for himself.

Plus the Twins are a good example of how extensions don’t always work out either… while not pitchers, the Twins missed with Max Kepler and Dobnak. Polanco’s extension doesn’t look real good right now, and they owe a soon to be 30 year old Buxton 90 million dollars from now to the end of his extension when he hasn’t had 400 PAs in a season since he was 23.

No, extensions don't always work out but given the market prices of them, they don't need to work out every time to be worth the effort.

Kepler's extension is mostly a bust but he's still a marginal big leaguer making under $10m. He's not killing the team and most of my dislike of that extension is tied to my dislike of Max Kepler. Polanco's extension has been phenomenal. He's injured right now but if he doesn't have 550 PAs in 2023, his remaining years become options. He's not going to get 550 PAs this year and as recently as 2021, posted a 4.9 bWAR. If the Twins are worried about his future, they can walk away after this season.

Buxton's extension was a no-brainer. You're paying an oft-injured player $15m per year when he earned that in about 60 games last season. And the contract becomes much more lucrative if he plays often and well, in which case the Twins are happy to make that trade every time. And if you get even one healthy season out of Buxton, you could have a 7-8 win player on your hands.

Dobnak's extension was a flyer that cost the Twins like $8m total over several years. It's a non-entity in baseball payroll terms. All upside with minimal cash outlay.

[Brock Beauchamp]

35 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Lack of extensions for a long time? We have had 3 just in the last few years. Yelich, Ashby, and Peralta. 

I consider the Ashby extension recent and I praised it at the time. I still praise it.

But Peralta's extension was over three years ago, Yelich shortly afterward (I think?). I don't really consider that "recent".

[CheezWizHed]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I consider the Ashby extension recent and I praised it at the time. I still praise it.

But Peralta's extension was over three years ago, Yelich shortly afterward (I think?). I don't really consider that "recent".

Who else would be a legitimate extension candidate (beyond the big 3)? 

[TURBO]

4 hours ago, nate82 said:

...and even see if the Brewers could extend Contreras. 

 

Well, I think this might be unnecessary due to the fact that at some point, Quero will be a factor, and a whole lot cheaper if he keeps developing.

I think I'd hold off at least a year before considering any kind of extension with Contreras due to Quero on his way up...

[nate82]

1 minute ago, TURBO said:

Well, I think this might be unnecessary due to the fact that at some point, Quero will be a factor, and a whole lot cheaper if he keeps developing.

I think I'd hold off at least a year before considering any kind of extension with Contreras due to Quero on his way up...

DH is an option for Contreras and the Brewers will still need a backup catcher also. 

[TURBO]

Just now, nate82 said:

DH is an option for Contreras and the Brewers will still need a backup catcher also. 

Does he have the bat to be a regular DH?  He needs to start flashing some power for that to be a consideration.

No need to overpay a catcher to become a DH when we have a guy like Quero making noise, and probably able to play for the big team in 2024.

I just think we have better places to put extension money than the catcher position when we have a guy like Quero who will be knocking on the door relatively soon.

[TURBO]

Not to mention, Yelich is obviously heading to that DH position pretty soon.  If we end up holding onto all of our young outfielders (Wiemer, Mitchell, Frelick and Chourio) there will simply be no room for more DH type players.

Hopefully, it's a good problem to have when you have 2 deserving catchers, but I really think that extending Contreras is something that can either wait a year, or not do at all.

 

[CheezWizHed]

Blocking a prospect should never, ever be a reason to not extend an MLB player.  If you can get a player at a good deal and you end up with another player pushing him out... trades can and do happen.  

Value is value. 

[tmwiese55]

I'd put almost no weight in a C who's just first playing at AA this year.   He's at least a few years out in best case scenario. And its more likely he'll never be a legit MLB starter than it is that he's so good that he would push out an established starter.   Just think how many hyped prospects flame, and the rate is even lower on catchers.  It would be a great problem to have if he were to be banging the door down in 25 already but planning your major league roster moves banking on 19/20 year old non super elite prospects to pan out in general isn't the best way to do things.  

[Fear The Chorizo]

I'd much rather focus on the Brewers continuing to improve their minor league system of drafting and developing young talent so they can remain incredibly picky at throwing market value extensions to veteran players 4+ seasons into their MLB service time.  There are other ways to build sustained contending teams than trying to outbid huge market franchises for the declining years of good veteran players with market-rate contract extensions and free agency.

The Brewers already have a longterm "face of the franchise" extension on their books through at least 2028, not even counting deferred actual dollar payments into 2042.  Like it or not, the Brewers are MLB's smallest market - they also have seemingly "cheap" extensions already signed with Peralta and Ashby...how many more pitchers with balky shoulders is the front office supposed to extend for people to be happy they're being appropriately reckless with their limited budget?

[Brock Beauchamp]

37 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

Who else would be a legitimate extension candidate (beyond the big 3)? 

No one, IMO. Maybe I would have tried to buy out some Contreras seasons immediately following the trade. Most of my focus has been on the big three. And my goals are pretty reasonable, I never expected them to lock up more than one.

[Jopal78]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

No, extensions don't always work out but given the market prices of them, they don't need to work out every time to be worth the effort.

Kepler's extension is mostly a bust but he's still a marginal big leaguer making under $10m. He's not killing the team and most of my dislike of that extension is tied to my dislike of Max Kepler. Polanco's extension has been phenomenal. He's injured right now but if he doesn't have 550 PAs in 2023, his remaining years become options. He's not going to get 550 PAs this year and as recently as 2021, posted a 4.9 bWAR. If the Twins are worried about his future, they can walk away after this season.

Buxton's extension was a no-brainer. You're paying an oft-injured player $15m per year when he earned that in about 60 games last season. And the contract becomes much more lucrative if he plays often and well, in which case the Twins are happy to make that trade every time. And if you get even one healthy season out of Buxton, you could have a 7-8 win player on your hands.

Dobnak's extension was a flyer that cost the Twins like $8m total over several years. It's a non-entity in baseball payroll terms. All upside with minimal cash outlay.

I’m not going to quibble too much, but the point of those extensions are to pay more up front than they normally would in order to get those extra years on the back end. This if the Twins indeed walk from Kepler and Polanco they will have paid more money than they would have going year to year for nothing; not too mention while none of those contracts are budget busting on their own it is 26 million dollars to  just Kepler, Polanco and Dobnak for their salaries this year and buy outs, thats approx. 1/7 the Twins payroll this year.

i’m sure at some point in the last several years the Brewers did their due diligence with their key players and determined that none were interested in giving them extra years or taking a discount, so like Jose Berrios in Minnesota there wasn’t much more to discuss. 

[SF70]

This smallest-market team in baseball isn’t going to extend pitchers unless it’s on a team-friendly, early-pre-arby deal. Jimmy Nelson’s injury is a perfect example of why not to extend 30 year old starters for big money. Way too much risk.

They haven’t extended positional players because they haven’t developed any until now. I’m expecting multiples of Turang, Frelick, Mitchell, Wiemer, Chourio, Quero, Contreras to be extended over the next 1-3 years. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Blocking a prospect should never, ever be a reason to not extend an MLB player.  If you can get a player at a good deal and you end up with another player pushing him out... trades can and do happen.  

Value is value. 

Yes. This. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

i’m sure at some point in the last several years the Brewers did their due diligence with their key players and determined that none were interested in giving them extra years or taking a discount, so like Jose Berrios in Minnesota there wasn’t much more to discuss. 

That’s possible. Unfortunately, it’s hard to see this team being good in 2024-2025 without them and if they’re not extended, they can’t be allowed to just walk.

Especially Burnes. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

5 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Just because Lopez signed a garbage deal doesn’t mean Woodruff, Burnes or Adames would. 

Im becoming increasingly frustrated by you constantly moaning about how much better the Padres and Twins are being run here on the Brewers page. 

That’s funny because I don’t actually believe that. I routinely rip the Twins and Padres for various things. Me being critical of decisions is not unique to the Brewers or this board.

Do not take criticism as bashing. I love watching the Padres go crazy but I’ve actually said *on this forum* that I prefer the Brewers’ approach because I don’t see how it’s even possible the Padres aren’t TERRIBLE in a few years  

And the Twins… well, I doubt I’d take their front office over the Brewers. Out of the three teams, the Brewers probably have the best front office. The Twins are close but also play in a market that allows them to play riskier bets. I doubt they’d be as good as Stearns/Arnold with Milwaukee’s constraints.  

And while Preller is a fun spectacle, I’d take either the Brewers or Twins front office if they get Siedler’s wallet in the deal.

Nothing I’ve said here conflicts with the fact that Stearns/Arnold aren’t without their own flaws nor are they above criticism. 

[CheezWizHed]

5 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

No one, IMO. Maybe I would have tried to buy out some Contreras seasons immediately following the trade. Most of my focus has been on the big three. And my goals are pretty reasonable, I never expected them to lock up more than one.

Yeah, you can really only have hopes for one of the three.  And I'm kind of hoping the lower payroll this year is a precursor to saving $$ for a bigger deal coming.  Burnes is most likely gone. Big Woo is probably the easiest to retain.  But Adames is a bit of the heart and soul the the team. Hard choices.