Hiura is hitting lefties in AAA Nashville

[Brewcrew82]

K% down to 25.4%. That's below where it was when he was called up in 2019. Better OPS against LHP than RHP. It's time, for both him and Voit. We need to find out before the trade deadline. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

K% down to 25.4%. That's below where it was when he was called up in 2019. Better OPS against LHP than RHP. It's time, for both him and Voit. We need to find out before the trade deadline. 

Okay, so this is an interesting point. He has struck out 10 times in 36 PAs. That's not great but it's damned good by Keston Hiura standards. Super Small Sample Size problem here, of course.

2023 Player Batting Splits

Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB
Total	29	122	106	21	34	5	0	11	28	0	1	12	31	.321	.393	.679	1.073	72	6	2	0	2	1
Home	14	57	47	13	18	2	0	8	21	0	0	8	11	.383	.456	.936	1.392	44	5	0	0	2	1
Away	15	65	59	8	16	3	0	3	7	0	1	4	20	.271	.339	.475	.813	28	1	2	0	0	0
vs RHP as RHB	28	86	73		23	5	0	6	18			9	21	.315	.395	.630	1.025	46	0	2	0	2	1
vs LHP as RHB	17	36	33		11	0	0	5	10			3	10	.333	.389	.788	1.177	26	0	0	0	0	0

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/10/2023.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I split this off into a separate thread because it's something worth keeping an eye on separately from the other Hiura thread.

[MrTPlush]

 

Yah, except he always had backwards splits at the MLB level. I think his past MLB experience (and the large sample it is), is probably a better indicator. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Yah, except he always had backwards splits at the MLB level. I think his past MLB experience (and the large sample it is), is probably a better indicator. 

Oh, it's certainly a better indicator given the small sample size of 2023 but it's an interesting thing to keep an eye on going forward. If he even closes that splits gap, he becomes quite a different hitter and immediately becomes more useful to the Milwaukee club.

[MrTPlush]

2 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Oh, it's certainly a better indicator given the small sample size of 2023 but it's an interesting thing to keep an eye on going forward. If he even closes that splits gap, he becomes quite a different hitter and immediately becomes more useful to the Milwaukee club.

I went back and checked his career in the minors (thanks to your link I finally figured out where they hide that on BRef (not overly obvious to see). There have been a few occasions where he hit LHP better...so this isn't the first time. Much like it isn't the first time he mashed AAA pitching.

Too bad he is a terrible defender or else he would probably be on the roster already replacing someone. Luke Voit isn't really any different though. Same reverse splits nature. 

Also, I think someone can decline Voit's $12mil team option now....lol. 

[wiguy94]

He also hit LHP well in AAA in 2021 so this likely means nothing. The gap between LHP in AAA and the MLB is pretty significant 

[Outlander]

There will be plenty of doubters until he can prove it at the major league level. They can keep him down there until July and if he is still hitting lefties there will be many that say he can't hit major league lefties. They still might even be correct. Since the Brewers are paying him a decent amount they should take another look at some point. He probably is the best first base option in the organization if Rowdy got hurt as pathetic as that is.

[wiguy94]

7 minutes ago, Outlander said:

There will be plenty of doubters until he can prove it at the major league level. They can keep him down there until July and if he is still hitting lefties there will be many that say he can't hit major league lefties. They still might even be correct. Since the Brewers are paying him a decent amount they should take another look at some point. He probably is the best first base option in the organization if Rowdy got hurt as pathetic as that is.

I think they should just get rid of Voit at this point for pretty much anyone.

Winker has had horrible batted ball data for over a year now. I thought the surgeries and getting healthy would lead to a bounce back but the batted ball data has only gotten worse this season. Probably not a popular take but I'd give him another 50-100 PA and if he can't start elevating the ball/hitting the ball harder then I don't think he should be an every day starter. If Hiura continues to reduce the K-rate then call him up and make him the full time DH with Winker either benched/traded/DFA'd

[wiguy94]

How long of a leash will the Brewers give Jesse Winker?

He had really bad batted ball metrics last year and that has only gotten worse this season. Considering he offers nothing outside of his bat this is pretty problematic.

Out of 272 hitters with at least 75 PA this season this is where Winker's batted ball data sits.

.215 xBA - 233rd
.293 xSLG - 263rd
.077 xISO - 261st
.288 xwOBACON - 260th
88.7 Avg EV - 152nd
30.4% Sweet Spot Rate - 200th (batted balls with a LA between 8 and 32)
3.6% Barrel Rate - 221st
5.4% solid contact rate - 167th

He obviously doesn't strike out that much and he draws a lot of walks but with how bad his baserunning is, how valuable is that high OBP?

Not saying I think the Brewers should get rid of him now like I would for Voit, but how long should the leash be? Especially if Hiura continues to lower that K-rate in AAA while being super productive.

[Brewcrew82]

15 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

How long of a leash will the Brewers give Jesse Winker?

He had really bad batted ball metrics last year and that has only gotten worse this season. Considering he offers nothing outside of his bat this is pretty problematic.

Out of 272 hitters with at least 75 PA this season this is where Winker's batted ball data sits.

.215 xBA - 233rd
.293 xSLG - 263rd
.077 xISO - 261st
.288 xwOBACON - 260th
88.7 Avg EV - 152nd
30.4% Sweet Spot Rate - 200th (batted balls with a LA between 8 and 32)
3.6% Barrel Rate - 221st
5.4% solid contact rate - 167th

He obviously doesn't strike out that much and he draws a lot of walks but with how bad his baserunning is, how valuable is that high OBP?

Not saying I think the Brewers should get rid of him now like I would for Voit, but how long should the leash be? Especially if Hiura continues to lower that K-rate in AAA while being super productive.

A month plus. Maybe just before the all-star break. Sometimes it takes a bit to get the power back coming off neck surgery (also possible that it never returns). .355 OBP is 2nd on the team right now and quite valuable still in the #2 slot. I would call Hiura up in place of Voit before I cut bait with Winker completely. Either Hiura comes up and strikes out like he has his entire career. Or he makes a lot hard contact while showing a reduced K% in the high 20s/low 30s. If the latter and Winker's power doesn't return, then go ahead and cut ties with him. In the meantime, there's enough at-bats for both to show what they can do.

 

[wiguy94]

13 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

A month plus. Maybe just before the all-star break. Sometimes it takes a bit to get the power back coming off neck surgery (also possible that it never returns). .355 OBP is 2nd on the team right now and quite valuable still in the #2 slot. I would call Hiura up in place of Voit before I cut bait with Winker completely. Either Hiura comes up and strikes out like he has his entire career. Or he makes a lot hard contact while showing a reduced K% in the high 20s/low 30s. If the latter and Winker's power doesn't return, then go ahead and cut ties with him. In the meantime, there's enough at-bats for both to show what they can do.

 

I personally think Winker's OBP is overrated because of how terrible he is as a baserunner. You basically need 3 singles, a double and a single, or a HR to score him from 1B. He's the definition of station to station as a baserunner. 

[Brewcrew82]

11 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I personally think Winker's OBP is overrated because of how terrible he is as a baserunner. You basically need 3 singles, a double and a single, or a HR to score him from 1B. He's the definition of station to station as a baserunner. 

Meh. Baserunners, even slowpokes like Winker, are still quite valuable when you've got Willy, Rowdy, and Bill coming up in the order. Certainly better than Ks and no-baserunners which is what we've gotten otherwise. 

Frelick is the only one I'd rather have at the top of the order, but he's weeks away from being an option. 

[wiguy94]

4 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Meh. Baserunners, even slowpokes like Winker, are still quite valuable when you've got Willy, Rowdy, and Bill coming up in the order. Certainly better than Ks and no-baserunners which is what we've gotten otherwise. 

Frelick is the only one I'd rather have at the top of the order, but he's weeks away from being an option. 

I said overrated not zero value. If Turang and Winker had the same OBP which is more valuable?

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, wiguy94 said:

I said overrated not zero value. If Turang and Winker had the same OBP which is more valuable?

Of course Turang would be more valuable. But the fact of the matter is that Turang isn't at that point yet, neither are any other of the alternatives. Taking a .355 OBP away from the lineup without a proven alternative is risky business. Why I want to see if Hiura's actually become playable before jettisoning Winker. 

[YelichPosse]

Question is do we think Huira is a better option than Voit right now? 
Winker will probably have another month or two to sink or swim. He’s probably earned that right based on past production. 
It’s not like there’s a great option in the bunch …. Which is too bad. Frelick and Mitchell getting hurt took away some of the excitement of opportunities this year! 

[Jopal78]

Does anyone truly believe Hiura “found it”? Let’s face it, the guy is the ultimate tease: always been awesome against AAA pitching, yet except for that magical stretch in 2019 he’s kind of sucked against MLB overall.

They gave him 700 PAs on playoff contending teams to figure it out and he couldn’t get it done. They already made the decision to chalk up a Top 10 pick as a flop when they DFA’d him. 

No major league team was interested in his potential to take a 2 million dollar flyer on him. So Hiura is collecting his big league salary in AAA

The Brewers would likely trade him tonight, if someone called offering just cash considerations. 

 

 

 

[duewizard]

If by June he continues on the current trend and Voit continues to suck then I would say bring him up. 

[Brewcrew82]

8 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Does anyone truly believe Hiura “found it”? Let’s face it, the guy is the ultimate tease: always been awesome against AAA pitching, yet except for that magical stretch in 2019 he’s kind of sucked against MLB overall.

They gave him 700 PAs on playoff contending teams to figure it out and he couldn’t get it done. They already made the decision to chalk up a Top 10 pick as a flop when they DFA’d him. 

No major league team was interested in his potential to take a 2 million dollar flyer on him. So Hiura is collecting his big league salary in AAA

The Brewers would likely trade him tonight, if someone called offering just cash considerations. 

 

 

 

I'm interested in giving the guy one more chance. His quality of contact has always been elite and the slightest bit of improvement in contact % would make him worth rostering. But if he falters again with a 40% K rate, then, yeah he won't be missed much. 

[YelichPosse]

15 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I'm interested in giving the guy one more chance. His quality of contact has always been elite and the slightest bit of improvement in contact % would make him worth rostering. But if he falters again with a 40% K rate, then, yeah he won't be missed much. 

Worst case right now is Voit with actual pop lol…. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

No major league team was interested in his potential to take a 2 million dollar flyer on him. So Hiura is collecting his big league salary in AAA

I think this is more of an indictment of cheap MLB teams than Keston Hiura.

Sure, I get why a bunch of good teams didn't have space for a reverse-split, no-position player.

But there was absolutely no excuse for teams like the A's, Reds, et al not to take a $2m flyer on Hiura in hopes of flipping him in July... except they value $2m more than actually improving their baseball team.

[SF70]

Because of his huge change in the box eliminating his leg-kick and toe-tap and fast diminishing K-rate of the last 2 weeks — after his 2 K-less PA’s in tonight’s game so far, he’s now at less than 18% in his last 14+ games, so let’s see if he can keep it below 20% over the next couple weeks and if so I think things will be different when he’s called-up.

 

[igor67]

Being skeptical is certainly worthwhile, and I would not at all mind exploring trade opportunities to improve that roster spot over trying Keston again. But there is more to the stat line then just dominating the same level again, so I am definitely in the give him a chance soon if those improvements hold. Compared to the Nelson Cruz saga Keston is still a baby.

[wallus]

I would give those two at least until Frelick is back and hopefully playing well. Then if things are still the way they are now, I would swap Hiura and Frelick for Voit and Winker. Play Keston at least 5 games a week and rotate the other guys at DH to give them a day off.

[Jim French Stepstool]

I suppose Voits' stat line is the answer to the question "how bad does someone have to be to (again) consider Hiura?" What may make it easier for the team to consider it is that Voit can only defend 1B, and while Hiura is scary with the glove that's the position where he came the closest to being acceptable. Plus it has the advantage of being an in-house move--the Adames trade notwithstanding I think it's highly unlikely a trade of any significance is going to occur at this time of year.

I watch Winkers' ABs and I don't think he looks "lost" at the plate or anything. I'd give him quite a bit more time.