Article: Is Keston Hiura Ready for His Dramatic Comeback? Part II

[Jake McKibbin]

As the Brewers' quest for a more reliably productive designated hitter continues, Keston Hiura remains an interesting potential solution. Why isn't he already with the parent club again, and what needs to happen in order for him to get one last shot?

Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman, Katie Stratman / USA TODAY NETWORK

With a player and team who have been through as much together as the Brewers and Keston Hiura have, there are bound to be complications when considering giving things another try. In his case, there are two distinct questions to ask: What boxes does he still need to check in order to earn another chance, and what other move would open a place for him on both the 26- and 40-man rosters?

Reasons for Caution

Hiura produced an OPS of 1.181 last season in Nashville, across an admittedly small sample of 59 plate appearances. There, his strikeout rate was a viable 25.4 percent. Yet, he couldn’t translate that success to the majors. Part of this is down to the inconsistency of jumping around, not finding regular playing time, as well as what’s very likely a slight mental block at this stage.
As such, the last thing you want to do with a promising bat in what is likely a last chance would be to bring him up and not use him, or react adversely to small sample results. Hiura needs to feel the confidence within the club, and confidence within himself having made this journey several times before.

There is one other statistic that stands out, though again, a small sample. In late innings of close games, Hiura has 12 at bats, with just two hits and six strikeouts, implying that he perhaps needs to show his improvements off under pressure a little more before he can cope with the demands of playing in the midst of a big-league pennant race again. He has an .868 OPS with runners in scoring position and two outs–again, slightly below his current production, and something to keep an eye on as the season progresses. The more confidence he develops in himself and his approach, the more these stats will increase.

How Does He Fit?

DFA Jesse Winker

Winker is currently occupying the DH slot for the Brewers, predominantly against right-handers, with William Contreras or others splitting the role when facing left-handed pitchers. He is expected to get some limited time in the outfield, and has shown good plate discipline but a total lack of power in the batter’s box. The Brewers are likely to give him a little more time to turn things around and regain the power stroke that made him such a fearsome hitter in Cincinnati, which would allow Hiura more time in the minors to solidify his base, increase the level of comfort in his approach, and make sure that he’s fully ready when he does come up again. As Matt Trueblood said though, time may be running short for Winker.

Hiura can fulfill all the roles Jesse Winker currently performs and more, given just how awful Winker is in the outfield grass. He would get regular playing time in this position on the roster, mostly against right-handers but occasionally against left-handed pitching, giving him a real chance to thrive. One thing most people agree on is that Hiura needs regular playing time and opportunities.

DFA Luke Voit

This roster decision seems like it may be coming sooner rather than later, with Voit scuffling horribly against left-handed pitching, and showing a serious lack of power. He has made some very agile plays at first base, but in reality, his bat hasn’t performed quite the way the Brewers would have hoped, and he could be traded or cut by the end of the month.

This may come a little too quickly for Hiura, as well as resigning him to far fewer plate appearances, and solely against left-handers (when they sit Rowdy Tellez). Tellez is struggling significantly in his few at-bats off southpaws so far, so the Brewers need someone who can hit left-handers, but to throw this burden on Hiura after last season may be a touch presumptuous, particularly if you want long-term success from him.

DFA Mike Brosseau

As is the case with Voit, Brosseau is in the lineup to hit lefties, but his inability to field balls makes him a liability at both first and third base, resulting in him playing as the DH against left-handed starters and getting just five at-bats in May so far. Again, Hiura shouldn’t be brought up in this case (he needs regular playing time), but Brosseau’s time in Milwaukee may be coming to an end in the short term. The most likely point of time is when Luis Urias returns from the 60-day injured list at the end of the month, making it even less likely that Hiura will be taking his place on the 40-man roster.

***

Hiura provides a power bat that can carry an offense and punish pitchers in a way the Brewers aren’t managing to do consistently. If they want someone as an everyday DH, that hitter needs to be a serious slugger, posting an OPS of .800 or more, and they’re just not getting that level of production at the moment. It seems a matter of time before Hiura makes the big-league roster again, and when he does, prepare for fireworks.

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[Brock Beauchamp]

I feel like I'm screaming into the void at times but Hiura doesn't fix the Brewers' ails. Voit needs to go and the front office needs to find someone to hit LHP. Hiura ain't that person.

Fix that problem and we can address how and where Hiura might fit into the lineup.

[Frisbee Slider]

Jesus Aguilar has career OPS of .799 against LHP in 697 AB.

In 2023, Aguilar has 1.149 OPS against LHP in 45 PA.

I assume Oakland would be willing to trade Aguilar for a fair price. Seems like bringing Aguilar back would be a ‘Brewers move.’

At the same time, I don’t think we need to typecast the Brewers’ need as only more offense against LHP. I think we could let Hiura hit against anyone for a little bit In Milwaukee. 

If Hiura reproduces his .866 OPS against RHP like he did in 2022, that would also be helpful.

[Lathund]

I would absolutely like to get better against LHP, but at the same time LHP accounted for only around 25% of plate appearances in 2022. So essentially, a 5 wRC+ improvement against RHP results in similar offensive improvement as 15 wRc+ improvement against LHP. It's not quite that simple of course, and you don't want to be too weak against LHP or it can get exploited. But the goal should be to improve run scoring, period. Improving offense against LHP is just one way to do it. So I wouldn't get too hung up on Hiura's splits. If they think he has turned the corner and cut down sufficiently on the swing-and-miss, promote him regardless. He's more versatile than Voit or Winker too. But I'd give it a bit longer. He can't be optioned again, so gotta be fairly sure the improvement is real. 

[Outlander]

The answer is no, put on the IL. Sad trombone sound.

[Frisbee Slider]

5 hours ago, Outlander said:

The answer is no, put on the IL. Sad trombone sound.

What was the injury? Is it serious?

[wiguy94]

5 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

What was the injury? Is it serious?

Came up limping while in a run down. Think it's a lower left leg injury if I had to guess. 

[sveumrules]

3 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Came up limping while in a run down. Think it's a lower left leg injury if I had to guess. 

Bummer. Saw he got picked off in the play log and subsequently pulled.

Was hoping it was just a jammed finger or something, but this sounds potentially a little more serious.

[wiguy94]

5 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Bummer. Saw he got picked off in the play log and subsequently pulled.

Was hoping it was just a jammed finger or something, but this sounds potentially a little more serious.

He stayed in the game at LF for the first 3 batters the next inning before being pulled. It's probably something that will keep him out for a bit, but it didn't look like anything too serious.

[DHonks]

I obviously don’t know if he’s figured it out, but let’s not forget that last season he was one of our most productive hitters despite bouncing between AAA and MLB.  He’s clearly not who he was as a rookie, but he’s also shown some positive trends in the last year.  I hope Voit and Winker turn it around, but if not, Hiura will be a good option

[MrTPlush]

On 5/14/2023 at 7:09 AM, Frisbee Slider said:

 

I assume Oakland would be willing to trade Aguilar for a fair price. Seems like bringing Aguilar back would be a ‘Brewers move.’

 

Just agree to pay his contract. That would reduce their payroll like 10%.

[igor67]

Aguilar seems to have lost the ability to hit righties well, but still rocking an OPS over 1.000 against lefties. So in that dedicated DH emergency 1st basemen role trading for Jesus seems like a solid move at this point.

[Jopal78]

Cutch has a .936 OPS against lefties this year, and a .781 against righties. That’s against major league pitching. If the Brewers are bringing in a retread; he’s get my vote. 

[MrTPlush]

12 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Cutch has a .936 OPS against lefties this year, and a .781 against righties. That’s against major league pitching. If the Brewers are bringing in a retread; he’s get my vote. 

Except one we already have the rights to and the other is sitting on a team currently in a postseason spot.

Yeah, that probably doesn't last till July...but who knows. They might also expect a return more than reasonable just because McCutchen is a fan favorite and a bag of balls isn't worth trading him away. Might as well keep him to appease fans versus some worthless return.

[markedman5]

 

[rickh150]

32 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

 

He would have been called up today.

[markedman5]

Late June…….https://wisportsheroics.com/milwaukee-brewers-first-baseman-keston-hiura-injury-details-and-timeline/

[YelichPosse]

13 hours ago, markedman5 said:

Late June…….https://wisportsheroics.com/milwaukee-brewers-first-baseman-keston-hiura-injury-details-and-timeline/

Of course, this year, why not... lol. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

13 hours ago, markedman5 said:

Late June…….https://wisportsheroics.com/milwaukee-brewers-first-baseman-keston-hiura-injury-details-and-timeline/

That just sucks