2023-24 Bucks Season Thread

[nate82]

59 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

When that is gone, he won't have a jumper to fall back on. 

Right and he isn’t good enough in the low post either to be someone who posts up.

[BrewerFan]

11 hours ago, GAME05 said:

I don't mean that Giannis should be the second-best player on the team, as that would be impossible, but that I'd like to see the offense centered around somebody else who can create their own shot. Giannis draws attention even without the ball, should do well in a pick and roll offense, good at offensive rebounds and being available for a pass in the paint. Not the guy needing to go 30/8/8 to win but the guy who goes 20/12/6. 

What we've seen out of their offense for years is Giannis gets the ball at the top of the key and tries to drive the basket. If that doesn't work, reset and try again. If that doesn't work, pass to Middleton with three seconds left to try and make some heavily contested shot. 

So I guess more of a Jamal Murray alongside Giannis. Middleton is the best bail-out shooter in the NBA, but doesn't lead the offense. Jrue tries but he's low-percentage. Ideally I'd like to see the others create opportunities for Giannis rather than the other way around. We used to see a lot of that with young LeBron, too. 

I respect that we're pretty handcuffed with a roster and that a Jrue trade isn't going to bring in some All-Star, but it's still an offense I'd prefer to see instead of Giannis doing everything and the rest of the cast just chucks up 3s. 

Well that makes sense. I think it's really just a matter of actually running a cohesive offense. I like what Jrue brings and I think we've got the pieces...IF they're healthy. 

I'm loving Beauchamp working with Giannis in Greece. I'm hoping Middleton can get back to the better version of himself. That he needed another surgery and STILL played as well as he did in the post-season is encouraging. He was around 24-25 PPG, shooting over 50/40. Ingles is old, but I think he can be a nice facilitator offensively.

 

Terry Stotts is going to be great for this team...and I think Griffith can keep the defense elite.

A HUGE part of the equation is going to be getting Middleton and Lopez back hopefully closer to ~33 and 17 than 40 and 20. Would keep us below the 2nd line that really handcuffs us.

I think Jrue would bring back a nice return, but he's been pretty adamant about retiring after his contract is up. That could be in a year or more likely two. Not sure what that gets you.

[nate82]

1 minute ago, BrewerFan said:

A HUGE part of the equation is going to be getting Middleton and Lopez back hopefully closer to ~33 and 17 than 40 and 20. Would keep us below the 2nd line that really handcuffs us.

The only thing it has handcuffed is the owners not making as big of a profit on the team for the year.  Getting below the 2nd line doesn't help the Bucks get a FA or two. 

[BrewerFan]

5 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Given Giannis' game style, I could buy that he might have peaked already.  His game is predicated on being uber-athletic.  Father time catches up with him too.  When that is gone, he won't have a jumper to fall back on.  

Yeah, that makes sense. He MAY have hit his peak. I don't see any reason he can't stay at his peak for a couple more years. Again, he's just 28. That was how old Jordan was when he won his 2nd Title.

And his mid-range game is much better than I think he's given credit for. The problem was two fold. 

1-They didn't actually run an offense. Ingles came back late and it was primarily just exchanging possessions in which someone would try and take their man off the bounce.

2-Middleton wasn't really all the way back until the end of the year. Had a lingering knee issue we just found out about. That forced Giannis to handle the ball and be the facilitator even more than before. And he STILL went for ~31/12/6. And this is a down year we're talking about.

 

I think a new coach and some type of actual offensive ideology beyond penetrate and score or kick will help. I also don't think Giannis' athleticism is going anywhere in the near future. I also think we saw an injured Giannis in the playoffs and he'd lost his touch around the rim, which is an underrated aspect of his game. It's not just run and dunk, it's how he contorts himself and the ways in which he puts the ball in the hoop while splitting defenders. 

He still put up 38/20 in the last game and the Bucks blew two straight to the team currently in the ECF's with a 13 and a 15 point lead heading in the 4th quarters.

There's not a lot of margin for error of course with a team this age, but there's still enough there to win another title with Giannis.

https://fadeawayworld.net/nba-media/giannis-antetokounmpo-is-shooting-better-from-mid-range-than-jayson-tatum-lebron-james-and-zach-lavine

[BrewerFan]

19 minutes ago, nate82 said:

The only thing it has handcuffed is the owners not making as big of a profit on the team for the year.  Getting below the 2nd line doesn't help the Bucks get a FA or two. 

It absolutely does. It eliminates the MLE, it eliminates sign and trades, it eliminates the bi-annual, it eliminates a LOT of different trades, it eliminates signing players who were bought out. You trade a pick and that pick moves to the bottom of the round...so that future 1st the Bucks have that they could trade becomes far less valuable as a team that may look at it as a pick the Bucks may have without Giannis or during a rebuild loses that value.

Getting below that 2nd line is really the only way they're going to be able to add anyone outside of a minimum salary veteran.

[BrewerFan]

7 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Giannis 16-18: 26.7 PER | .599 TS% | .209 WS/48
Giannis 18-22: 31.0 PER | .631 TS% | .275 WS/48
Giannis 22-23: 29.0 PER | .605 TS% | .204 WS/48

His production last season was much closer to All Star Giannis during the Kidd era than it was to MVP Giannis during the first four seasons of the Bud era.

I hope it is just a one season blip, but yes, barring changes to his playing style we very well may have seen the best of Giannis already. Is it really that wild to think his reckless game based on being stronger and more athletic than the other guy might not age the best, especially after we've already seen a notable drop in efficiency while the games missed pile up a little more every year?

Well, I don't agree it was closer to the J-Kidd version of Giannis than the MVP version. He was 3rd in the league in PER last year, but that's not even the issue.

Making the declaration that at 28;

I

Quote

 

t’s pretty simple to me.

The version of Giannis that won back to back MVPs four/five years ago now at age 24/25…is gone and ain’t coming back.

The version of Giannis that won Finals MVP three years ago…is gone and ain’t coming back.

 

So 28, 3rd in MVP voting, 3rd in PER, 2nd in defensive rating, 3rd in defensive +/-, 5th in +/- overall, and his usage rate was 1st in the league at ~39% and at 28, the best version of him is "gone and ain't coming back," because he wasn't historically great last year?

That seems like a wild declaration in my opinion. Even last year his TS% was equal to Tatum and we're writing him off now like he's some past his prime injury prone player?

 

If ever there was a sign of how quickly we've taken for granted his greatness...

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, BrewerFan said:

If ever there was a sign of how quickly we've taken for granted his greatness...

I’m not taking anything for granted. Giannis is clearly the second best player on the planet right now.

If he wants to maintain that standing as long as possible, or maybe even reclaim the top spot, I think his game necessarily has to evolve at some rapidly approaching point as we’re already seeing the diminishing returns of running into a wall over and over and over again.

Hopefully the front office has some deft moves lined up and the new coaching staff has some fresh ideas to help facilitate that evolution.

[BrewerFan]

29 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

I’m not taking anything for granted. Giannis is clearly the second best player on the planet right now.

If he wants to maintain that standing as long as possible, or maybe even reclaim the top spot, I think his game necessarily has to evolve at some rapidly approaching point as we’re already seeing the diminishing returns of running into a wall over and over and over again.

Hopefully the front office has some deft moves lined up and the new coaching staff has some fresh ideas to help facilitate that evolution.

Well...I don't agree with the first statement...I don't think the best player on the team that wins the final is just anointed the best player. The game is played on both ends, not just the offensive side. I can certainly see an argument for Jokic, but the idea that there is this clear and obvious separation is as...unreasonable as the statement that the Giannis who won 2X MVP or FMVP, DPOY, etc..."ain't coming back."

Put Giannis on a team with Murray, Porter Jr, Gordon, KCP and he's "clearly" the #1 player.

Jokic is a more skilled offensively. That is clear. But the same can be said for Curry...arguably Embiid or Tatum. Giannis is still the best OVERALL player.

 

This feels like a First Take type of reaction. I recall just 2 years ago they were asking if Giannis was already a top 10 player of all-time.

 

I just don't get the logic in general. He WAS the best player doing...pretty much what he did now, just with a healthier team around him, but now he needs a great evolution and players around him to re-take that spot? Again, that's talking about which TEAM is better. Is Jokic actually better this year than he was last year when Murray and Porter Jr were out? The consensus seemed to be that he wasn't. But those two come back after playing just 9 games last year and NOW Jokic overtakes Giannis?

 

No, the Nuggets have overtaken the Bucks and Jokic deserves his flowers. He's an incredible talent. Bill Walton if he'd have stayed healthy type talent. I'll give him that. 

 

I do agree the coaching staff needs to help Giannis and create an actual offensive gameplan while Horst needs to try and acquire young talent with limited resources. Beauchamp's development will be crucial...and he's certainly added a whole lot of mass to try and take that leap working out with Giannis in Greece. So we'll see how that goes.

[sveumrules]

7 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

Well...I don't agree with the first statement...I don't think the best player on the team that wins the final is just anointed the best player.

Sure, Giannis has the edge on defense and Jokic has (I’d say a bigger) edge on offense, but the real separator between them for me are health and postseason resilience.

Giannis 18-23 RS: 326 G | 10516 MP | 30.6 PER | .625 TS% | .261 WS/48

Giannis 18-23 PS: 60 G | 2130 MP | 27.3 PER | .580 TS% | .204 WS/48

Jokic 18-23 RS: 368 G | 12127 MP | 29.4 PER | .641 TS% | .267 WS/48

Jokic 18-23 PS: 68 G | 2556 MP | 29.0 PER | .614 TS% | .236 WS/48

Thats 50 more games and over 2,000 extra minutes on the floor for Jokic over the last five seasons, plus he maintains his production much better during the postseason even with all the additional games/minutes.

[owbc]

8 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Sure, Giannis has the edge on defense and Jokic has (I’d say a bigger) edge on offense, but the real separator between them for me are health and postseason resilience.

Giannis 18-23 RS: 326 G | 10516 MP | 30.6 PER | .625 TS% | .261 WS/48

Giannis 18-23 PS: 60 G | 2130 MP | 27.3 PER | .580 TS% | .204 WS/48

Jokic 18-23 RS: 368 G | 12127 MP | 29.4 PER | .641 TS% | .267 WS/48

Jokic 18-23 PS: 68 G | 2556 MP | 29.0 PER | .614 TS% | .236 WS/48

Thats 50 more games and over 2,000 extra minutes on the floor for Jokic over the last five seasons, plus he maintains his production much better during the postseason even with all the additional games/minutes.

We'll see what 23-24 looks like. Giannis got an extra month of rest. Jokic's reaction to winning last night has drawn laughs, but the guy clearly is tired after playing into mid-June. It's hard to repeat in the NBA these days. 

[BrewerFan]

4 hours ago, owbc said:

We'll see what 23-24 looks like. Giannis got an extra month of rest. Jokic's reaction to winning last night has drawn laughs, but the guy clearly is tired after playing into mid-June. It's hard to repeat in the NBA these days. 

That was a LOT. The bubble, then an abnormally short post-season. Throw the Olympics in there and the Bucks weren't getting any time off.

Also, if Middleton can come back and play a full season. How he played in the post-season this year was encouraging. If Beauchamp or Portis and the supporting cast.

The big thing though, I just don't think you can break basketball down like you do Baseball. It's not individual matchups. 

In those post-season numbers for Jokic, he's not facing the same defenses. We saw what Giannis did vs the Suns. The Warriors were another team that did not have much inside resistance. Especially when you contrast that to what Giannis has with the Celtics, the Raptors when they had Kawhi, Gasol and Ibaka was still playing well defensively.

 

Finally...I REALLY think trying to break down the best player into minutes played or games with Giannis is a little silly. You're not talking about Ben Simmons. The Bucks are extremely cautious(as they should be) with a generational talent. Jokic isn't running guys down like LeBron when, for example he got Bridges in the finals that's forgotten about as the play where he stops Booker and then goes up and gets Ayton was such an freakish play, they were asking if that was the best play in finals history the following day.

 

In any event, there are two different conversations. Can the Bucks win again. Can they add teammates who will hit their shots, take pressure off Giannis as Murray does(and Middleton has) and who's the better player between the two. Throw Giannis on GSW, change nothing and he's going to be an even more efficient scorer and I'm pretty certain he'd widely be considered the best still.

A playoff run like each have had most certainly cements your legacy, but it also leads to overreactions. With Giannis, as I said, it was "Is he a top 10 player all time already," and Jokic I saw a clip Richard Jefferson said he was KD scoring, Magic passing, Duncan rebounding and Steph shooting(though he at least added the caveat that Steph shot more often, so just as good, not better).

 

You can certainly make an argument for Jokic right now. That's not crazy. I'd disagree, but Jokic is an incredibly skilled player. I don't think you can take what Giannis does on both ends and say it's so obvious it's not debatable.

[CheezWizHed]

On 6/13/2023 at 10:23 PM, BrewerFan said:

I don't think you can take what Giannis does on both ends and say it's so obvious it's not debatable.

And yet, here we are... debating it. 😂

[BrewerFan]

On 6/14/2023 at 10:24 PM, CheezWizHed said:

And yet, here we are... debating it. 😂

See! I'm....right? I guess....🤷‍♂️

 

It's debatable! 

 

[BrewerFan]

Bradley Beal...given permission to talk to the Bucks.

 

I'm split. He's not been a good 3 point shooter the last ~5-6 years. He HAS also put up 30PPG twice in that span(on bad teams).

Can he get back to 40% from 3 or is he more of the .347% since 2017? If he has Giannis and Middleton, is he the floor spacer who can create his own shot?

The question is, what are we giving up for him?

Jrue=Sure. With just 2 years left and then retirement(which he seems set on) it makes sense.

You'd BETTER believe you have someone like Beauchamp who's ready to make that jump and get into the lineup.

2nd issue-It'd almost certainly push you over the 2nd line.

That means you can't add players in a trade to match salaries, no MLE, no Bi-Annual, no buyouts.

You greatly restrict what you can do.

 

Jrue's one of the most respected players around the league, so maybe a 3 team trade could work. But then there's another big factor. The only players with value are Portis, Beauchamp, Connaughton and Allen. At a minimum, you're going to have to include one of those players and the '27 1st into the deal.

 

Probably a moot point as the Suns are now also invested, but is this the team that can get us back over the top? 

PG-Beal(?)
SG-Connaughton
SF-Middleton(if he's the playoff version)
PF-Giannis
C-Lopez

Bench
Ingles, Mathews, Portis. Leonhard, Thanasis, AJ Reed(?)...

I don't know how much the defense takes a hit and how much the offense opens up.

I think the better way to go would be to give Middleton a longer deal with a lower starting salary(5/170) first year at ~30M
Lopez at 3/54
See if you can trade Crowder for a late 1st or at least a couple 2nds. There are some team with cap room apparently interested. I don't really see the value being there to extend him via Bird rights unless the new staff has very different ideas for him, or you decide to take a guy like Portis who's been INCREDIBLY loyal and passed up tens of millions to be in Milwaukee and make Jae your 6th man, backup 4.

But it could really give us some breathing room to stay below the draconian restrictions that start this year for teams over that 2nd apron.

 

Dame-He's all over the place and I'm not even gonna entertain that one as...again, why would Portland trade him here and for what?

The best suggestion I've seen LONG term is Jrue+Portis for Simmons+Grant+3rd overall pick

Scoot Henderson...who said his dream was to play in Milwaukee with Khris and Giannis.

You get younger, more versatile and you stay under the luxury tax enough to still go out and added players via sign and trad and ML, Bi-Annuel, all those avenues to fill out a roster.

I don't see why Portland is trading a talent like Scoot who'd be the #1 pick in most drafts(if he even goes 3rd) but I guess they feel a lot of pressure to win right now and Holiday playing with Dame in the backcourt is the reason behind such a proposal.

 

The only thing I feel confident about at this point is Middleton and Lopez coming back and signing deals that can help the Bucks add other players in longer term deals with less 1st year money and then...Horst will have to pull off miracles. 

[nate82]

The Bucks don't have the assets to get Beal and the Suns and Heat are already the top contenders for Beal. 

 

Dame is also not a possibility as he wants to go to the east coast if he is traded so that means the Knicks, 76ers, Celtics or Heat. 

I think the Bucks will trade two of Connaughton, Allen and Portis. 

[nate82]

Beal to the Suns according to Woj…..

 

[nate82]

Somewhat official now:

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/bradley-beal-trade-suns-land-wizards-star-as-chris-paul-heads-to-washington-in-blockbuster/

Suns receive

Bradley Beal

Wizards receive

Chris Paul

Landry Shamet

Multiple second-round picks

Multiple pick swaps

 

[BrewerFan]

 

1 hour ago, nate82 said:

Somewhat official now:

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/bradley-beal-trade-suns-land-wizards-star-as-chris-paul-heads-to-washington-in-blockbuster/

Suns receive

Bradley Beal

Wizards receive

Chris Paul

Landry Shamet

Multiple second-round picks

Multiple pick swaps

 

Yeah, the Bucks could have beaten this...IMO.

The problem was Beal had a personal connection to Pho(his agents son is the Suns President of...something).

But that's CP3 and Shamet who are just there for salary purposes. Paul was going to get waived.
2nds can be bought pretty easily.
Pick swaps are basically just lottery tickets in case a David Robinson type situation occurs. Or they're far enough out that KD will be gone.

 

The problem for the Suns is they really have no way to add depth. For a team without a PF, that's going to be tough. 

They have 5 guys under contract and outside of trading Ayton(and they can't package players with him) they're going to have to sign basically all veteran minimum guys. 

It's good for the Suns owner, but man, this team could be in REAL trouble if they have any injuries. 

Ayton HAS to be moved now in a deal where they can get a defensive big and then a couple other depth pieces. The Knicks seem like a good option. Mitchell Robinson, Obi and even a guy like Hartenstein. 

 

 

They've really made that 2nd luxury tax threshold kinda punitive. I'm thinking the NBAPA is going to want to re-visit that as it's going to cost a lot of vets a lot of money. It also almost forces teams who are already over that limit to pay whatever FAs they have what they want(if they have their Bird rights).

Really hope(and assume) Middleton and Lopez understand this and are willing to work with the team.

[BrewerFan]

Beal was given a choice...due to the no-trade.

Bucks made a sales pitch. Beal turned down Milwaukee, Miami and Sacramento(a little sleeper).

 

In terms of just professional success, seems like the Bucks would have been the best fit. Lopez/Giannis/Middleton/Beauchamp/Beal?

There's a LOT of open shots for him. Not that he'll struggle with KD and Book, but they don't create the same type of open catch and shoot 3s that Giannis does. Seems like that's just the Brooklyn Nets again without the depth they had...which compared to the Suns is a significant difference.

 

Just to cement that point a bit;

 

[patrickgpe]

MIddleton declining his 40MM player option.

While he has been very good for the bucks, I think its time to move on. The bucks are in a bind, they had basically 4 max out players and have not been able to get any supporting cast members around them.  The 40-50MM they would have to pay Kash could really help this depth on the team. 

 

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/37896452/khris-middleton-declines-40-million-player-option-bucks-becoming-free-agent

[patrickgpe]

NBA draft tonight, obviously no buzz in Milwaukee with only the final pick in the draft. I am excited to see where O-Max ends up. Also I am hoping they can trade their way into earlier in the draft. They need depth and to get a decent rookie would be helpful with regards to him being a cheap option off of the bench. 

Regarding 58, I'm looking at a guy like Drew Timme, really low ceiling but high floor guy. 

[sveumrules]

5 minutes ago, patrickgpe said:

The 40-50MM they would have to pay Kash could really help this depth on the team. 

From my understanding the Bucks are capped out so their only options are to resign Middleton or to sign and trade him, otherwise they lose his salary slot.

[patrickgpe]

9 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

From my understanding the Bucks are capped out so their only options are to resign Middleton or to sign and trade him, otherwise they lose his salary slot.

thanks for the clarification. 

[GAME05]

There's basically a salary cap to sign your own guys (with a tax if you go above) and a much lower salary cap to sign free agents. And the Bucks are still over the FA cap even with Middleton's salary gone. It's why a sign-and-trade is still possible even though Middleton is a FA so that the other team is technically only re-signing him. 

Still possible Middleton signs a longer-term deal with Milwaukee, though with Jrue being a FA next year, doing so is a big go-for-it move. Adding in that ownership probably wants to get out of the repeater tax (would have been something like $55M if Middleton opted in) and I'm not holding my breath for that.

If Milwaukee wants to go for it, they'll probably do so with Giannis and Jrue and hope for the best. If they're looking for more of a soft rebuild/reset, you trade Jrue this offseason, too. 

[sveumrules]

Definitely going to be a pivotal offseason.

Will Horst run back a team that won the most games in the NBA then laid an egg in the playoffs (but with a hurt Giannis and understandably distracted HC to a team on an epic heater they rode all the way to the finals) and hope changing the coaching staff and minor tweaks around the edges will suffice?

Its the path of least resistance and would likely still have the Bucks among the top two tree teams in the East and top half dozen or so overall in terms of Championship odds for next year.

Or do they get creative and try to package some combo of Pat, Bobby, Grayson for either more of a true PG or an athletic wing defender to join Jrue, Khris, Giannis, Brook in the starting five?