Article: Should the Brewers Re-Extend Freddy Peralta?

[Harold Hutchison]

Though they still have three years of control left via his original contract extension, the Brewers might be wise to talk to Freddy Peralta about another one before 2023 is out. What would that look like?

Image courtesy of © Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

The Brewers’ starting rotation has been rocked with injuries the last two years. The team planned to have Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, Aaron Ashby, Wade Miley, and Eric Lauer as their top six starters, with Adrian Houser moving to the bullpen. In the last two years, only Burnes has avoided the injured list, and Houser’s been starting.

Back in Feburary 2020, Peralta signed a team-friendly deal with team options through 2026, but that year is beginning to feel relatively close. Meanwhile, the Brewers are very likely to lose one or both of Burnes and Woodruff via trade or free agency. There is an outside shot of retaining their aces, but it is very unlikely, given that there seems to be no movement in terms of locking up Matt Arnold and Craig Counsell.

Peralta has been the third ace of the Brewers rotation. He came up during the 2018 season, and was a key part of getting the Brewers to the playoffs, but he was underused–almost an afterthought–in the NLCS, aside from stepping in when Gio Gonzalez was injured in Game 4. In 2019, he struggled, after mostly being in the bullpen that year, but he rebounded in 2020 and broke out in 2021.

In 2022, he had a shoulder injury and went on the injured list. Since then, he’s returned to form, albeit in short outings in 2022. In 2023, he’s had some rough outings, including giving up 10 runs (four earned) against the Giants. He may warrant a mulligan for that one, based on that scary incident involving close friend Willy Adames for that 15-1 loss, but it is time to ask what to do about him.

For starters, let’s assume that the 2025 and 2026 options will be exercised. At $8 million, Peralta is a bargain, especially if he is at his 2021 form. Even at his current level, teams could do far worse.

In 2023, Peralta has been a lot more hittable than he was in the past. He’s also giving up homers at a slightly lower rate than he did in 2019. That said, he has kept the Crew in games more often than not, and currently has a 5-4 record. He’s also stayed on the mound in 2023, as opposed to going on the injured list.

Taking a look at similar pitchers, the names Jake Odorizzi and Lance Lynn come up, along with Dakota Hudson and Cal Quantrill. Odorizzi and Lynn probably provide the best guidance for the Brewers, pulling in salaries ranging from $8 million to $19 million a year. Peralta will be 28 at the end of 2026, though, while Odorizzi and Lynn are 33 and 36, respectively.

That said, the Brewers should not hesitate at this point. Assuming Peralta rebounds as he did following his IL trip last season, the best option might be to offer Peralta a four-year deal at $13.5 million a year. This splits the difference of the salaries, but gives the Brewers a proven commodity in the rotation.

Extending Peralta a second time is not without risk, given his shoulder injury and 2023 struggles. That said, with Burnes and Woodruff likely to be too pricey to keep around, Peralta might be the best option to anchor the rotation in 2025 and beyond.

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[sveumrules]

Peralta has a 107 ERA- so far this year. His Ks are down and BBs/HRs are up to the tune of a 110 FIP-.

Throw in the injury history plus three affordable years remaining on the original extension and I see no reason to tack on another 4/54 at this point.

[jay87shot]

Agree, why add on unneeded future risk. If he was pitching better I would say sure but he is far from a sure thing long term.

[Fear The Chorizo]

NO

 

[MrTPlush]

Odorizzi and Lynn - 13 seasons of 150+ innings combined

Freddy Peralta - Zero

[wiguy94]

Can't wait for the should we re-extend Ashby article to come out next!

[MrTPlush]

5 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Can't wait for the should we re-extend Ashby article to come out next!

"With the 614th pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, the Brewers select...Jimmy Coalwinkle."

*10 minutes later*

Article: Should the Brewers Extend Jimmy Coalwinkle?"

 

All jokes aside, rumor has it this series ends with Christian Yelich. 

[Frisbee Slider]

As fans, we beg for extensions and then get mad when a player signs the extension and underperforms or gets injured. 

conclusion: extensions are not usually good.

[Outlander]

I would certainly take a Peralta extension over Woodruff, big no on Woodruff. However, if they become sellers with Burnes and Woodruff, Peralta becomes a really good trade asset and don't need to lower that trade value.

[Fear The Chorizo]

47 minutes ago, Outlander said:

I would certainly take a Peralta extension over Woodruff, big no on Woodruff. However, if they become sellers with Burnes and Woodruff, Peralta becomes a really good trade asset and don't need to lower that trade value.

He's been a below replacement level starter so far this season, and the Brewers have control of him for 3 more seasons.  There's nothing indicating he's a really good trade asset besides Brewers' homer sunglasses and an affordable contract to give him a long leash to reestablish himself as a reliable and quality starting pitcher - honestly Peralta's collective body of work and injury history to this point actually makes the initial extension he signed look like a good move for him and a financially foolish one for the Brewers despite of how team-friendly it's been perceived to be.  When the most valuable aspect of a player to an organization is the contract he's signed to and his best start remains his MLB debut about 5 calendar years ago, perhaps his on-field contributions are over-valued by that team because of it.

[sveumrules]

12 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

He's been a below replacement level starter so far this season, and the Brewers have control of him for 3 more seasons.  There's nothing indicating he's a really good trade asset besides Brewers' homer sunglasses and an affordable contract to give him a long leash to reestablish himself as a reliable and quality starting pitcher - honestly Peralta's collective body of work and injury history to this point actually makes the initial extension he signed look like a good move for him and a financially foolish one for the Brewers despite of how team-friendly it's been perceived to be.  When the most valuable aspect of a player to an organization is the contract he's signed to and his best start remains his MLB debut about 5 calendar years ago, perhaps his on-field contributions are over-valued by that team because of it.

From 2020-22 there were 104 pitchers with at least 250 IP in MLB. Among that sample Freddy came in with a 76 ERA- (22nd), 72 FIP- (10th), 6.6 rWAR (43rd) and 6.8 fWAR (35th). All for less than 4 million dollars. No matter what happens from here on out, the contract is already a success from the team's standpoint.

He's struggled to start the year, no doubt, but he has provided much more value to the Brewers than just signing a team friendly extension.

 

 

[wildcat2237]

As folks have said above, hell no!

Freddy is 27 and the Brewers have him until 30. 

He's not getting any younger, his number are down, and he's been injured. 

I would not even remotely consider an extension. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

30 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

From 2020-22 there were 104 pitchers with at least 250 IP in MLB. Among that sample Freddy came in with a 76 ERA- (22nd), 72 FIP- (10th), 6.6 rWAR (43rd) and 6.8 fWAR (35th). All for less than 4 million dollars. No matter what happens from here on out, the contract is already a success from the team's standpoint.

He's struggled to start the year, no doubt, but he has provided much more value to the Brewers than just signing a team friendly extension.

 

 

Would you agree that most of the statistical value you presented in the above is heavily weighted towards his 2021 season, when he was making a legitimate case for Cy Young consideration through most of the year until a shoulder injury limited him down the stretch?  I'd also be curious to know where Peralta's 282 IP total from 2021-2023 seasons rank in that list of 104 pitchers.  

Don't get me wrong - that contract does carry value and the Brewers got the financial equivalent of equal  to excess value just by Peralta's 2021 season alone up to this point...but at the rate he's performing I'd say it's a coin flip for the Brewers to want to execute either of Freddy's 2025 or 2026 team options that carry an annual $8M pricetag - he's got to stay healthy AND be a better pitcher when healthy than he's been since the calendar rolled into 2022 to justify that future cost.

[SomewhereInTime]

God no, that would be really dumb.

[SomewhereInTime]

Maybe at least wait and see if Peralta ever has a season in his career where he qualifies before we start thinking of extensions.

[Lathund]

I'm not overly worried about Peraltas somewhat rough start so far. His stuff is fine, velo is the highest it's ever been. Much of the difference is BABIP and HR/FB rates which are notoriously noisy. Which isn't to say it's only randomnes/bad luck that's behind his lack of success, but it definitely is a part of it. I don't expect him to be an ace going forward, but I think he'll be an above average starter for sure. 

That said, there is absolutely no reason to "re-extend" him yet. He's under team control for 3½ more seasons, two of them are team-friendly options. The nature of that contract means that the team will have a lot of leverage even a year or two from now to get a team friendly extension. There is no need to rush. See if that should really is, and stays, healthy. See if the above mentioned noisy stats do normalize or not. See if Ashby gets back fully, see what you have in Gasser and Rodriguez. Wait on a bunch of other things that'll affect the future outlook of the rotation. And then decide. 

For now, he's here cheaply for a bunch of more years.