Forget AAA, call Tyler Black to the majors right now

[KeithStone53151]

18 hours ago, sveumrules said:

I think part of the reason he hasn’t even gotten the call to AAA is just the depth of 3B on the Nashville roster.

Urias, Devanney, Toro, Dorrian, Alvarez before opting out. Think Brosseau is still down there too?

Plus there isn’t really an obvious guy at Wisco deserving of the bump up to take his spot.

I’d love it if they cut bait with Winker and gave just about anyone in the system the DH PAs instead, but think they’ll just ride things out to the deadline at this point before shaking things up.

I struggle with reasons like this for not giving a call to AAA. Black is a higher priority by far than any of these guys except Urias. We can punt one of these guys or move to AA if they think Black is best suited for AAA. What's next, Chourio beats down AA next year but shouldn't get called up to AAA only because we have too many versions of Tyler Naquin on the roster?

[sveumrules]

1 minute ago, KeithStone53151 said:

I struggle with reasons like this for not giving a call to AAA. Black is a higher priority by far than any of these guys except Urias. We can punt one of these guys or move to AA if they think Black is best suited for AAA. What's next, Chourio beats down AA next year but shouldn't get called up to AAA only because we have too many versions of Tyler Naquin on the roster?

I agree in theory, but it isn’t so easy in practice.

Toro is on the 40 man, Devanney and Dorrian are minor league FAs the Brewers would likely prefer to retain given their emphasis on maintaining organizational depth.

Black is still a work in progress in the field too. Easier to give him reps as the everyday 3B in Biloxi than juggling things around in Nashville.

[brewcrewdue80]

13 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

 Easier to give him reps as the everyday 3B in Biloxi than juggling things around in Nashville.

I'm now convinced you figured out who the Brewers will headline in a trade being Black. Just demote the players stopping him from getting reps in AAA to AA. 

 

As to the 40man issue I seen argued. We'll Waive Winker bye-bye and you've fixed your 40man problem. Truthfully they're holding on to Winker up til deadline to move him. Use him in trade of contracts so they aren't just stuck paying him his full salary when just waiving him. They'll finally kick him to the curb after the deadline if still holding on to him. The Black Era might begin if the team didn't acquire somebody to replace Winker.

[brewcrewdue80]

Speaking on 40man. If the Brewers added Black to their 40man when calling him up, a trade involving Black would mean that receiving team has to add him to their 40man. 

I don't think he's rule 5 eligible after this season yet. Those 40man spots protecting those who are are valuable. 

I just wonder are the Brewers keeping him down there til he sets the SB AA record before promoting him to AAA.

[Fear The Chorizo]

From a pitching standpoint, one thing that stands out with the Brewers is they seem to be aggressive in getting MLB-caliber arms up to MLB - particularly if they entered pro ball after college.  Woodruff, Burnes, Ashby, heck even Peralta wasn't down in AAA too long before his callup in 2018 as a 22 yr old.  They gave Small a similar shot last year and he fizzled...but guys like Gasser and Misiorowski probably aren't going to log a ton more minor league innings before their initial call up, and Uribe is already getting broken into the bullpen.  

Conversely, the Brewers have largely been hesitant to bring up hitting/position player prospects quickly at the expense of DFA-ing marginal MLB veterans.  The offseason moves to pave the way for Turang, Mitchell, and Wiemer to see regular MLB playing time this season were largely financial ones but also solid baseball decisions - frankly all 3 had earned their shot through steady progression through the upper minors.  This organizational approach is good for 40 man roster planning in the offseason and headed into opening day, but I think it makes things very difficult to make in-season changes internally in hopes of improving MLB offensive production.  Once minor injuries inevitably show up at the MLB level, the Brewers quickly cycle into having bottom of the 40 man veterans getting a ton of starts in the majors while they wait on guys to heal up on uncertain timelines because adding any talented prospects or other minor leaguers whose onfield performance deserves a MLB opportunity means losing the veteran roster filler.  

I'm guessing there's going to be substantial roster churn at the trade deadline depending on any trades and/or MLB promotions that require prospects to be added to the 40 man.

[KeithStone53151]

52 minutes ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

I'm now convinced you figured out who the Brewers will headline in a trade being Black. Just demote the players stopping him from getting reps in AAA to AA. 

 

As to the 40man issue I seen argued. We'll Waive Winker bye-bye and you've fixed your 40man problem. Truthfully they're holding on to Winker up til deadline to move him. Use him in trade of contracts so they aren't just stuck paying him his full salary when just waiving him. They'll finally kick him to the curb after the deadline if still holding on to him. The Black Era might begin if the team didn't acquire somebody to replace Winker.

I think you made a great point but by accident to a degree. Maybe part of keeping Black in AA is so his numbers stayed up for a potential trade target. Imagine if we sent him to AAA a month ago and he posted a 600 OPS for the month?

I'm honestly just not that concerned about replacing Winker. I don't see a scenario that he we don't bring in at least another option for DH. If we add say Tommy Pham and CJ Cron for example, we didn't specifically address DH but now the guys playing RF and 1B would become bench/DH options. Also when Tellez comes back, he could roll into the DH over winker if he still isn't getting it done. Winker has about 2 weeks left of everyday playing time that he either needs to hit, or he's going to become a bench option or possibly a DFA option. I appreciate the amount of leash he was given, but at this point it's been half a season and it doesn't seem to be happening.

[Jopal78]

The Brewers are going to need at least 2 40 man roster spots soon for Woodruff and Justin Wilson. Plus additional room for anyone they acquire at the trade deadline. That is probably why Black is not being thought of as a contributor to Milwaukee right now. 

[KeithStone53151]

29 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

From a pitching standpoint, one thing that stands out with the Brewers is they seem to be aggressive in getting MLB-caliber arms up to MLB - particularly if they entered pro ball after college.  

Conversely, the Brewers have largely been hesitant to bring up hitting/position player prospects quickly at the expense of DFA-ing marginal MLB veterans. 

If you had to rank the Brewers compared to other teams in developing pitching, top 5 without question. You could easily argue higher, but it's not necessary for this exercise. If you do the same ranking developing hitting, bottom 5 without question. It's too early to tell if we're getting better, or if high picks/high dollar intl FA like Mitchell/Black/Chourio/Quero are succeeding due to Brewers development or despite Brewers development. It's tough to look at Atlanta and see Arcia hit his way to the all-star game after we couldn't unlock him at all.

My point, the Brewers are clearly much better at identifying and developing pitching and rightfully so have a lot of confidence in it. They probably can very quickly judge based on stuff/command/success/etc and fly the best guys through the system. They don't have the same success/confidence with hitters so move them more slowly. That's my guess anyway.

[Fear The Chorizo]

10 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

I think you made a great point but by accident to a degree. Maybe part of keeping Black in AA is so his numbers stayed up for a potential trade target. Imagine if we sent him to AAA a month ago and he posted a 600 OPS for the month?

I'm honestly just not that concerned about replacing Winker. I don't see a scenario that he we don't bring in at least another option for DH. If we add say Tommy Pham and CJ Cron for example, we didn't specifically address DH but now the guys playing RF and 1B would become bench/DH options. Also when Tellez comes back, he could roll into the DH over winker if he still isn't getting it done. Winker has about 2 weeks left of everyday playing time that he either needs to hit, or he's going to become a bench option or possibly a DFA option. I appreciate the amount of leash he was given, but at this point it's been half a season and it doesn't seem to be happening.

While this is a very likely scenario that could happen based on the Brewers' m.o., I think it's also a point of significant frustration with alot of fans/posters in the Brewers viewing the DH as more of a role filled on a platoon-lite basis by position players who commonly are on the roster to begin with due to defensive flexibility/veteran 40 man depth compared to being bat first/glove optional players.  I think it leaves an offensive black hole in the everyday lineup that could be more readily filled by the Brewers identifying 1 hitter to be their DH fulltime, which shouldn't be too hard to accomplish with a 26 man roster.

[sveumrules]

10 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

While this is a very likely scenario that could happen based on the Brewers' m.o., I think it's also a point of significant frustration with alot of fans/posters in the Brewers viewing the DH as more of a role filled on a platoon-lite basis by position players on this roster who largely are on the roster due to defensive flexibility compared to being bat first/glove optional players.  I think it leaves an offensive black hole in the everyday lineup that could be more readily filled by the Brewers identifying 1 hitter to be their DH fulltime, which shouldn't be too hard to accomplish with a 26 man roster.

Except the Brewers don’t view the DH that way. They’ve primarily used bat first/only players in the role.

Of the 1,082 DH PAs since last year the distribution is Cutch (360), Yelich (190), Winker (169), Hiura (96), Tellez (78), Contreras (43), Renfroe (29), Voit (26), Ruf (24) is everyone with at least 20 DH PA since last year.

[Fear The Chorizo]

21 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Except the Brewers don’t view the DH that way. They’ve primarily used bat first/only players in the role.

Of the 1,082 DH PAs since last the distribution is Cutch (360), Yelich (190), Winker (169), Hiura (96), Tellez (78), Contreras (43), Renfroe (29), Voit (26), Ruf (24) is everyone with at least 20 DH PA since last year.

Disagree strongly to this assessment, simply because Cutch wound up OPS-ing 0.700 and also played alot of OF last season, Yelich is a borderline GG leftfielder this season, Tellez is considered to be a good defensive 1B but is best suited with a platoon mate even at that position so he doesn't face LHP too much, Contreras is an offensive catcher but that doesn't make him an everyday DH option at this stage of his career (he's DH'd this season a decent amount because their primary DH option sucks), Renfroe is a good RF, and the other players you listed were either picked up off the scrap heap for peanuts or frankly not given enough of an extended shot as the team's primary DH (Hiura specifically).  If they just don't want anything to do with giving Hiura an extended shot (like another full season, not a month) to be their DH, then they need to acquire someone who would fill that role on an everyday basis because they're an established MLB hitter who doesn't require a platoon mate.  Then, if plus offensive contributors to their positions like Yelich and Contreras need a day off in the field but can still hit, that's when you have them fill in as DH if there's a platoon advantage or your regular option needs a day for whatever reason. 

The fact that there are 10 players who have gotten at least 20 DH PA for the Brewers in less than 2 regular seasons is the problem - if the Brewers prioritized that position there should be just a handful, because their production would preclude any other players from getting put in the order with much of any frequency. Bringing in Winker was a marginal attempt at this, but he appears to be damaged goods and frankly shouldn't be on this roster anymore.  

[Jopal78]

23 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Disagree strongly to this assessment, simply because Cutch wound up OPS-ing 0.700 and also played alot of OF last season, Yelich is a borderline GG leftfielder this season, Tellez is considered to be a good defensive 1B but is best suited with a platoon mate even at that position so he doesn't face LHP too much, Contreras is an offensive catcher but that doesn't make him an everyday DH option at this stage of his career (he's DH'd this season a decent amount because their primary DH option sucks), Renfroe is a good RF, and the other players you listed were either picked up off the scrap heap for peanuts or frankly not given enough of an extended shot as the team's primary DH (Hiura specifically).  If they just don't want anything to do with giving Hiura an extended shot (like another full season, not a month) to be their DH, then they need to acquire someone who would fill that role on an everyday basis because they're an established MLB hitter who doesn't require a platoon mate.  Then, if plus offensive contributors to their positions like Yelich and Contreras need a day off in the field but can still hit, that's when you have them fill in as DH if there's a platoon advantage or your regular option needs a day for whatever reason. 

The fact that there are 10 players who have gotten at least 20 DH PA for the Brewers in less than 2 regular seasons is the problem - if the Brewers prioritized that position there should be just a handful, because their production would preclude any other players from getting put in the order with much of any frequency. Bringing in Winker was a marginal attempt at this, but he appears to be damaged goods and frankly shouldn't be on this roster anymore.  

Looks like you have a philosophical difference with Counsell, as he certainly uses the DH spot to get his regulars off their feet in order to help stay fresh.
 

Whether in the long run, that philosophy is better than having a player who DH’s every day is anyone’s guess. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

13 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Looks like you have a philosophical difference with Counsell, as he certainly uses the DH spot to get his regulars off their feet in order to help stay fresh.
 

Whether in the long run, that philosophy is better than having a player who DH’s every day is anyone’s guess. 

If you want to score more runs, having an everyday DH deserving of everyday at bats is better - if a regular position player starter needs to be off their feet to stay fresh, they should get a few extra games off compared to what they already get while also being a quasi DH.  I get that a guy like Yeli needs time out of the OF to stay healthier - and yeah giving him a couple dozen plate appearances at DH makes sense over the course of a season.  However, giving him substantially more than that then gives a 5th OF option like Taylor substantially more plate appearances as a corner OF, which in the long run negates any positive offensive impact keeping Yelich in the lineup when he's not in the field and probably makes the lineup worse in the long run.

Now, if the Brewers were to consider moving Yelich into the fulltime DH role while improving their other outfield options if and when Frelick leaves no doubt he's ready in the next 1-2 seasons or Mitchell can stay healthy enough to start in center and shift Wiemer to a corner OF spot, I'd be all for it.  That isn't a good option for the rest of this year, though.

[KeithStone53151]

The Brewers philosophy has been to rotate a few different bat first players into the DH role. Saying we do anything else is incorrect. Last year, we had a bit of an outfield log jam so Renfroe and McCutchen got a lot of DH at bats. We went into this year with Voit/Tellez/Winker figuring 3 players to start in 2 spots most of the time with Winker getting occasional outfield reps. The goal is to platoon effectively and maximize production on low cost players...which is unfortunately something the Brewers need to do due to budgetary constraints. This is also something most teams do. If you look around a bit, most teams don't have a designated player at DH. In 2023, 4 players have more than 300 PA as the DH. Ohtani, Meneses, JD Martinez, Byron Buxton. 8 other teams have a player getting at least 200 PA at DH. That means 26 teams are getting at least 100 PA and 18 teams are getting at least 200 PA this season so far from someone other than a designated DH. As I scrolled teams, approx 2/3 of teams have at least 5 guys getting 20 PA this season at DH. Point being, what the Brewers are doing isn't unusual...it would be unusual if we were the team paying JD Martinez $10M to DH for us full time.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The Brewers philosophy has been to rotate a few different bat first players into the DH role.

There's a big difference between bat first options that produce a low 0.700's OPS AT BEST even when attempting to rotate them in platoon advantages, and having a premium offensive player taking those ABs consistently.  I get that the Brewers can't have players at every position making $10M+ in salary as part of their payroll limitations and that's going to always limit quality veteran offensive depth - but I actually think the Brewers SHOULD be one of the teams paying a professional hitter like JD Martinez a decent chunk of $ to be a lineup centerpiece that the Brewers can then fill in with platoon options at defensive positions to try and maximize offense out of those other spots.  They paid Cutch almost $9M to be 2022 DH and he had one of his worst statistical seasons offensively with the Brewers, in large part because he was leaned on too heavily against RHP and wound up playing half the season in the field as a 35 yr old.  They're paying Winker a similar amount to perform even worse offensively after the offseason trade.

The problem is that the Brewers are picking the wrong bat-first veteran players in the offseason and wind up being stuck with them too far into the season before cutting bait and giving other options extended opportunities.  As the rest of their roster construction leans heavily on defensive flexibility, the Brewers aren't in the same boat as other teams who might collectively have better (and more expensive) offensive players across their MLB rosters that would be viewed as decent everyday DH options if they weren't also considered starting caliber defensive players. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

3 hours ago, KeithStone53151 said:

Maybe part of keeping Black in AA is so his numbers stayed up for a potential trade target. Imagine if we sent him to AAA a month ago and he posted a 600 OPS for the month?

 

This was raised as a possibility recently, and I think there may be some merit to it. Having said that I doubt I would be happy with any deal they made right now involving Black.

[Jim French Stepstool]

7 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Also, Chris Saenz in 2004. The highest game score for any pitcher with one career start.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIL/MIL200404240.shtml

Definitely a little more history of them doing it with pitchers. Jeff D'Amico skipped AAA as well.

[sveumrules]

2 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

They paid Cutch almost $9M to be 2022 DH and he had one of his worst statistical seasons offensively with the Brewers, in large part because he was leaned on too heavily against RHP and wound up playing half the season in the field as a 35 yr old.

Cutch started 49 games in the OF last year, not even a third much less half and it was only that many because Cain  was out of shape and quit.

His 360 PAs at DH made him the 9th most regular DH in all of MLB for 2022.

[KeithStone53151]

3 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

The Brewers philosophy has been to rotate a few different bat first players into the DH role.

There's a big difference between bat first options that produce a low 0.700's OPS AT BEST even when attempting to rotate them in platoon advantages, and having a premium offensive player taking those ABs consistently.  I get that the Brewers can't have players at every position making $10M+ in salary as part of their payroll limitations and that's going to always limit quality veteran offensive depth - but I actually think the Brewers SHOULD be one of the teams paying a professional hitter like JD Martinez a decent chunk of $ to be a lineup centerpiece that the Brewers can then fill in with platoon options at defensive positions to try and maximize offense out of those other spots.  They paid Cutch almost $9M to be 2022 DH and he had one of his worst statistical seasons offensively with the Brewers, in large part because he was leaned on too heavily against RHP and wound up playing half the season in the field as a 35 yr old.  They're paying Winker a similar amount to perform even worse offensively after the offseason trade.

The problem is that the Brewers are picking the wrong bat-first veteran players in the offseason and wind up being stuck with them too far into the season before cutting bait and giving other options extended opportunities.  As the rest of their roster construction leans heavily on defensive flexibility, the Brewers aren't in the same boat as other teams who might collectively have better (and more expensive) offensive players across their MLB rosters that would be viewed as decent everyday DH options if they weren't also considered starting caliber defensive players. 

This is a greater possibility in a couple years when Woodruff/Burnes are off the roster, but that will also probably be during a rebuild where it's not the best use of $. To sum up your post, it sounds like you're more frustrated with the execution of the philosophy than the philosophy itself. That is certainly fair. Winker is in the top 18 in PA at DH this season. With a wRC+ of 64, that is 24 lower than the next lowest which is Miguel Cabrera at 88. Guys like McCutchen, Pederson, Blackmon, Vogelbach, Bell, Ozuna, Cabrera are all getting 180+ PA in the DH spot and all are outperforming Winker by a fairly wide margin. Mind you none of these guys are jumping off the page, only Pederson has an OPS over 800 and he's strict platooned. 

So at the end of the day, the philosophy seems fine and widely used across the league. You can either chalk it up to the Brewers chose poorly, or we chose fine and simply got exceptionally unlucky to pick Winker over the similar options available.

[Fear The Chorizo]

4 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Cutch started 49 games in the OF last year, not even a third much less half and it was only that many because Cain  was out of shape and quit.

His 360 PAs at DH made him the 9th most regular DH in all of MLB for 2022.

And he stunk offensively - he was the wrong guy to bring in for this roster.

How did his DH numbers rate compared to the 8 guys with more PAs in 2022?

[edfunderburk]

If we don’t make a trade or call up Black soon we will lose several low scoring games in the next few weeks before the deadline …

Why wait?

[nate82]

12 hours ago, KeithStone53151 said:

I struggle with reasons like this for not giving a call to AAA. Black is a higher priority by far than any of these guys except Urias. We can punt one of these guys or move to AA if they think Black is best suited for AAA. What's next, Chourio beats down AA next year but shouldn't get called up to AAA only because we have too many versions of Tyler Naquin on the roster?

First AAA tends to be lower talent wise than AA there are far more career minor league and AAAA type players in AAA than there are in AA.  If Black had a problem with being patient at the plate sure send him to AAA to work on that as he is going to face junk ball pitchers like Rea 90% of the time. 

AA is far better for Black than AAA is.  AAA is just a spot you put your prospects when you want to call them up.  It is basically just a holding spot when you are ready to move them to your big league roster.  I would rather see Black get time at AA facing pitchers closer to what he will see in the majors than having him feast on AAA pitching. 

[rickh150]

4-6 with a HR Tues. night…. Could even lead him off, ha! The state of our offense….. is Braun available? 

[Fear The Chorizo]

11 hours ago, nate82 said:

First AAA tends to be lower talent wise than AA there are far more career minor league and AAAA type players in AAA than there are in AA.  If Black had a problem with being patient at the plate sure send him to AAA to work on that as he is going to face junk ball pitchers like Rea 90% of the time. 

AA is far better for Black than AAA is.  AAA is just a spot you put your prospects when you want to call them up.  It is basically just a holding spot when you are ready to move them to your big league roster.  I would rather see Black get time at AA facing pitchers closer to what he will see in the majors than having him feast on AAA pitching. 

This can all be true, but it's not as cut and dry anymore.  With the reduced total in minor league teams organizations have under their wing and slight changes to the length of minor league control teams have over signees before they have to add to 40 man rosters, there has been a shift to improved prospect talent playing a full year or more in AAA and it not being mostly a haven for AAAA players.  The combination of the lost minor league development seasons due to the COVID year and these rule changes are both improving the overall talent level across AAA.  Pitching-wise, I'd still agree that AA has more talented arms organizations are trying to develop into starters, but AAA bullpens tend to resemble what hitters will face in MLB because organizations keep their veteran reliever backup options there.

Factors like the league and competition organization's affiliates face, state of a team's farm system overall, etc. currently determine if AA or AAA currently has more MLB-caliber prospects playing in it.  I also think there's value for just about every prospect to get some experience at the AAA level to get accustomed to playing in stadiums with at least a bit larger fan attendance and "brighter lights" than alot of high A and AA ballparks that at times resemble regular season college baseball crowds.

Specific to Black, I don't think it matters what level he's in provided he's playing everyday defensively to see if he can develop into a viable MLB thirdbaseman - right now AA is perfect for him because of that.

[Team Canada]

11 hours ago, nate82 said:

First AAA tends to be lower talent wise than AA there are far more career minor league and AAAA type players in AAA than there are in AA.  If Black had a problem with being patient at the plate sure send him to AAA to work on that as he is going to face junk ball pitchers like Rea 90% of the time. 

AA is far better for Black than AAA is.  AAA is just a spot you put your prospects when you want to call them up.  It is basically just a holding spot when you are ready to move them to your big league roster.  I would rather see Black get time at AA facing pitchers closer to what he will see in the majors than having him feast on AAA pitching. 

I'm not convinced this is accurate, and your two paragraphs are contradictory. If AAA is where you move your top prospects before you want to call them up, how can the talent be lower in AAA? By definition your top prospects are there.

How many prospects have jumped from AA to MLB? The percentage can't be that large.