Forget AAA, call Tyler Black to the majors right now

[Playing Catch]

11 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Pitching-wise, I'd still agree that AA has more talented arms organizations are trying to develop into starters, but AAA bullpens tend to resemble what hitters will face in MLB because organizations keep their veteran reliever backup options there.

It's probably worth its own thread, but I've been thinking about this a lot lately. It seems like in recent seasons, baseball is paradoxically a pitching-dominant game, but that there's never enough pitching. Teams are trying to combat 3TO with unhittable pitches in the zone (most relievers), OR by having elite command to pick the corners (mid-rotation starters). Teams like the Brewers stock up on any guys that have 1.5 plus pitches and options, and stash them on the 40-man. THOSE types of pitchers flood AAA. They represent a lot of swingman starters and backend relievers with control issues. AAAA hitters feast on these guys, but can't hit in MLB.

I still think triple-A has "better" competition for young hitters. Double-A may have more "talented" pitchers, but usually they have control issues. Hitters that rely on taking walks tend to struggle a lot more at the higher levels if they are unable to do damage in the zone on a consistent basis.

(Sorry to derail the thread, and these are just mullings, I haven't yet formulated any strong opinion on this).

[KeithStone53151]

2 minutes ago, Team Canada said:

I'm not convinced this is accurate, and your two paragraphs are contradictory. If AAA is where you move your top prospects before you want to call them up, how can the talent be lower in AAA? By definition your top prospects are there.

How many prospects have jumped from AA to MLB? The percentage can't be that large.

He has a point to a degree in my opinion. Think about the players we have in AAA. Toro, Naquin, Brosseau, etc. At this point, those guys are AAAA types. In AA you are going to run into guys like Jackson Holliday or Chourio or whatever phenom is flying through. There are more younger, and raw/talented high end prospects in AA than AAA generally. That said, I think there's a ton of value to facing and clearing the AAAA types hurdle. 

[nate82]

27 minutes ago, Team Canada said:

I'm not convinced this is accurate, and your two paragraphs are contradictory. If AAA is where you move your top prospects before you want to call them up, how can the talent be lower in AAA? By definition your top prospects are there.

They are not contradictory.  Top prospects normally only stay at AAA for a very short time.  Majority of the top prospects are in AA and not AAA.  The AAA teams are filled with AAAA players.  The time top prospects are in AAA is usually two months at most.  Majority of the time they are there only until they pass super 2 status.

AAA is just not where top prospects stay for very long.  If they play a full season at AAA it usually means they are not as good as the talent evaluators thought or they are injured.  AAA is normally the shortest assignment for top prospects in the minor leagues.

[CheezWizHed]

In the MLB top 100, 32 prospects were at AA with 24 at AAA.  I think it is is reasonable to say that is true of the top prospects on the whole (supporting the theory that top prospects tend to move on from the AAA level faster than AA).

But I struggle to think that AA arms on average are going to be a better test than AAA arms.  How many pitchers at AA won't every reach AAA on a given year? And all those AAAA players are typically guys that pitched well in AA.  

A batter is only going to face any given pitcher 2-3 times in a game and maybe 5-6x in a season.  I doubt having a few more "top end" pitchers is really going to trump the general improvement in all the pitchers you will find at AAA. 

 

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

3 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

It's probably worth its own thread, but I've been thinking about this a lot lately. It seems like in recent seasons, baseball is paradoxically a pitching-dominant game, but that there's never enough pitching. Teams are trying to combat 3TO with unhittable pitches in the zone (most relievers), OR by having elite command to pick the corners (mid-rotation starters). Teams like the Brewers stock up on any guys that have 1.5 plus pitches and options, and stash them on the 40-man. THOSE types of pitchers flood AAA. They represent a lot of swingman starters and backend relievers with control issues. AAAA hitters feast on these guys, but can't hit in MLB.

I still think triple-A has "better" competition for young hitters. Double-A may have more "talented" pitchers, but usually they have control issues. Hitters that rely on taking walks tend to struggle a lot more at the higher levels if they are unable to do damage in the zone on a consistent basis.

(Sorry to derail the thread, and these are just mullings, I haven't yet formulated any strong opinion on this).

This is very thoughtful. Enjoying the discussion in this thread.

[Team Canada]

3 hours ago, nate82 said:

They are not contradictory.  Top prospects normally only stay at AAA for a very short time.  Majority of the top prospects are in AA and not AAA.  The AAA teams are filled with AAAA players.  The time top prospects are in AAA is usually two months at most.  Majority of the time they are there only until they pass super 2 status.

AAA is just not where top prospects stay for very long.  If they play a full season at AAA it usually means they are not as good as the talent evaluators thought or they are injured.  AAA is normally the shortest assignment for top prospects in the minor leagues.

Top prospects don't necessarily equal higher level of competition at that time though, just that they have higher ceiling. AA isn't solely composed of top prospects, nor are "AAAA" players all complete scrubs. They just may not have enough to make the leap. They were better than AA players, or they would be demoted to AA and let someone else take their spot,

If AAA is the top prospects who are there for half a year to a year, plus everyone who already advanced from AA but isn't good enough to stick in MLB, then by my reckoning this is clearly superior competition to AA. I'm confident that if the Sounds and Shuckers switched leagues for a week, the AAA players would outperform the AA players.

[rickh150]

Black 2-4 tonight with a double and 43 SB. 

[StearnsFTW]

That has to be a record.

[wibadgers23]

What’s odd is that Black only had 13 SB all of last year so not sure what the difference is this year.

[Jake McKibbin]

Just now, wibadgers23 said:

What’s odd is that Black only had 13 SB all of last year so not sure what the difference is this year.

He isn't injured! Missed most of last season, played some AFL before getting injured there too

[BrewerFan]

On 7/19/2023 at 10:01 AM, Team Canada said:

I'm not convinced this is accurate, and your two paragraphs are contradictory. If AAA is where you move your top prospects before you want to call them up, how can the talent be lower in AAA? By definition your top prospects are there.

How many prospects have jumped from AA to MLB? The percentage can't be that large.

I don't think the argument is that the better arms are in AA is that more players jump from AA to AAA, I think the argument is the most talented prospects spend more time in AA vs higher caliber arms. Arms with better pure stuff, while AAA is...as pointed out, filled with organizational depth like Rea, Pannone, or any number of relievers who are going to bounce around.

It feels like guys move through MiLB MUCH more deliberately at every level until AAA and then it's often time a final tune up vs more advanced pitchers or savvy pitchers(however you'd like to articulate it). More Misiorowski type arms in AA and more Collin Rea type arms in AAA.

 

[BrewerFan]

On 7/17/2023 at 4:39 PM, edfunderburk said:

I saw Black live in one game back in May. His defense on that evening in Montgomery was excellent. His speed on the bases & with his bat were exceptional. 
 

I’ve recommended this promotion a few times on the game threads & in the transaction forum over the past few weeks. 
 

We need to move on from both Winker & Tellez ASAP. Black & a bat via trade make sense. 

I thought Black has looked very good at 3B. He can cover ground, he's got soft hands and the arm looks fine...from what I can tell. 

I also think about the Phillies game yesterday when we won 5-3 and you could point directly to the defensive plays they didn't make at 3B vs the plays we did make that was the difference in the game. 

 

It feels like it'd be a bit of a waste to DH him and keep that speed and athletic ability off the field, but it'd be a much bigger waste to just keep throwing out a .500 OPS at DH. I'd be MORE than happy with .240/.350/.400 at this point, and then his speed on the bases. 

[DR28]

Tyler's bat will totally play in Milwaukee, I would be definitely fine trading Adames this winter and rolling with Turang at SS and Black at 2B.

[endaround]

Since rushing a prospect with no defensive home to the majors worked so well with Hiura the Brewers should definitely do it with Black.

 

[Playing Catch]

This seems like a better spot than the optimism thread...

Bring up Misiorowski?

Best stuff in the minors? Check. Never enough pitching in bigs? Check. Have him in long-relief like Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta? Check. Monitor workload? Check. Master the changeup? Check.

John Smoltz once said that pitching out of the bullpen allows guys to tinker with stuff and practice new pitches. The Brewers pen might be the perfect spot for Jake the Snake to cut his teeth.

This would give the Brewers important info going into this offseason, too. Allows them to get a sense of Misiorowski's timetable to the bigs when considering trading Burnes/Woodruff.

Also, the Brewers pen would have to be on a shortlist of nastiest bullpens in MLB history, even though they may be a little wild.

[DR28]

52 minutes ago, endaround said:

Since rushing a prospect with no defensive home to the majors worked so well with Hiura the Brewers should definitely do it with Black.

 

Black is much better hitter than Keston.

[DR28]

4 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

This seems like a better spot than the optimism thread...

Bring up Misiorowski?

Best stuff in the minors? Check. Never enough pitching in bigs? Check. Have him in long-relief like Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta? Check. Monitor workload? Check. Master the changeup? Check.

John Smoltz once said that pitching out of the bullpen allows guys to tinker with stuff and practice new pitches. The Brewers pen might be the perfect spot for Jake the Snake to cut his teeth.

This would give the Brewers important info going into this offseason, too. Allows them to get a sense of Misiorowski's timetable to the bigs when considering trading Burnes/Woodruff.

Also, the Brewers pen would have to be on a shortlist of nastiest bullpens in MLB history, even though they may be a little wild.

My god... Devin, Jacob and Abner, wow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

That would be something!!

[YelichPosse]

Just now, DR28 said:

Black is much better hitter than Keston.

Black gets on base a lot more, that is 100% true. His K rate is also more "normal" as opposed to "high".

Black's bat and OB skills would play in the DH spot right now, dare I say, better than any other option we have, sans Contrares when he's not behind the dish.

[endaround]

18 minutes ago, DR28 said:

Black is much better hitter than Keston.

Based on what? Hindsight? Hiura as a 22 year old destroyed AAA pitching.

[shanedog19]

36 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

This seems like a better spot than the optimism thread...

Bring up Misiorowski?

Best stuff in the minors? Check. Never enough pitching in bigs? Check. Have him in long-relief like Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta? Check. Monitor workload? Check. Master the changeup? Check.

John Smoltz once said that pitching out of the bullpen allows guys to tinker with stuff and practice new pitches. The Brewers pen might be the perfect spot for Jake the Snake to cut his teeth.

This would give the Brewers important info going into this offseason, too. Allows them to get a sense of Misiorowski's timetable to the bigs when considering trading Burnes/Woodruff.

Also, the Brewers pen would have to be on a shortlist of nastiest bullpens in MLB history, even though they may be a little wild.

If he dominates his first few appearances at AA, I wouldn't be shocked if this happens. He sure looked MLB ready at the futures game.

[brewmann04]

I think they want him to Play everyday @ 3rb down there

[Playing Catch]

18 minutes ago, brewmann04 said:

I think they want him to Play everyday @ 3rb down there

I agree. I hadn't realized that the CF/2B stuff was completely non-existent this season. I have to think the Brewers believe that he's their 3-bagger of the future.

[wibadgers23]

Last year, Garrett Mitchell was promoted to Nashville on August 2 and then to Milwaukee on August 27. Perhaps Black is on a similar timeline.

[DR28]

1 hour ago, endaround said:

Based on what? Hindsight? Hiura as a 22 year old destroyed AAA pitching.

Scouting reports.

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, endaround said:

Based on what? Hindsight? Hiura as a 22 year old destroyed AAA pitching.

Not striking out more than a quarter of the time and putting up 15%+ BB rates. 

Also, FWIW, Tyler Black at AA: 155 wRC+. Keston Hiura at AA: 116 wRC+.