2023-24 Offseason Ideas

[jay87shot]

What about this.

1) Burnes to Balt. for 1B Ryan Mountcastle, 2B Connor Norby, and OF Billy Cook

If I'm the O's my future IF is Mayo, Westburg, Holiday, and Henderson. For us we get 2 young solid power hitters for the right side of our IF. Mountcastle is a proven bat who help lengthen out our lineup immediately. Norby would be a great 2B option and Cook gives us AAA OF depth incase the injury bug hits again.

2) Payamps to Tex for Jack Leiter

We sell high on Payamps, Leiter gets a change of scenery and we get a top of the rotation talent for a throw in piece last year.

3) Bryce Wilson to NYM for Blade Tidwell

Same thing as Payamps, we sell high to a team who is desperate for quality bullpen arms.

4) Adames to Giants for Mason Black and Will Bednar

In this scenerio we get IF pieces for Burnes so we turn Willy into 2 interesting arms.

Free Agents= Miley 1/10 and Luis Severino 1/8 incentives to 16, Woody 2 year deal

1)LF Frelick 2)C Contreras 3)DH Yeli 4)1B Mountcastle 5) CF Mitchell 6) 2B Norby 7) 3B Black 8)SS Turang 9)RF Weimer/Taylor

Obviously this is really young but it has great upside. Add in Chourio at some point and even better.

Rotation) Peralta, Miley, Severino, Ashby, Houser, Gasser

Missing a true ace but if we resign Woody and some young guys blossom there are tons of top of the rotation options.

Pen) Williams, Uribe, Megill, Milner, Peguero, 2 of Vieira, Small, Andrews, couple vet minor league deals.

The depth takes a hit but the upside is still there and I trust Arnold to find a gem somewhere.

Add in high end arms in AA/AAA in Rodriguez, Misi, Leiter, Tidwell, and Black and that gives us plenty of arms for 2025 or to package to get a SS or ace in a trade at the deadline. If things aren't great we could still trade some vets and have a super strong young team for 2025.

[jay87shot]

We discussed Burnes or Williams for young guys. Would there be any vets that would fit into a trade. Maybe even trading a blocked-ish prospect like Quero or Weimer/Mitchell for a proven bat or arm. 

Burnes for Jeff McNeil, David Peterson, and Blade Tidwell would be interesting. 

The Mets have McNeil, Baty, Acuna, and Mauricio for 2B and 3B, if they keep the 3 young guys McNeil would seem to fit our front office goal of getting contact first players. Peterson is an upside lefty who was better after a terrible start (another good arm our staff could fix). 

Burnes for Gleybar Torres, Chase Hampton, and 3rd piece

For some reason the Yank fans don't like Gleybar much, he would be a solid bat at 2B and then Hampton would be a high upside arm for the long term. Maybe Weimer for Gleybar and a midlevel-prospect as well works.

Other ideas?

[BrewerFan]

On 10/16/2023 at 8:22 PM, jay87shot said:

2) Payamps to Tex for Jack Leiter

We sell high on Payamps, Leiter gets a change of scenery and we get a top of the rotation talent for a throw in piece last year.

3) Bryce Wilson to NYM for Blade Tidwell

Same thing as Payamps, we sell high to a team who is desperate for quality bullpen arms.

It's REALLY nice to have young pitching, relievers or starters, but Bryce Wilson? 

Payamps for a guy like Jack Leiter?  He's nearly 30, on his 6th team and he was very good last year...but the #2 pick in the draft a year ago?

I can't imagine the Rangers giving up on Lieter for just about any reliever at this point(Uribe maybe). He's in a very pitcher friendly league(s) and he's struggled with his command, but his stuff is still elite. 

Tidwell isn't as highly touted, but he's roughly comparable to a Carlos Rodriguez. The Mets can go out and buy a BP(Diaz is coming back for one). I don't think they'd trade a MRP for a really good prospect. And I really don't think the Rangers are trading a player they've not long ago picked 2nd and who's reached AAA and has TOR talent.

 

Unless you're talking about an elite young arm like Uribe, I don't see the Rangers dealing Lieter for a reliever...even after a really good season...

[jay87shot]

8 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

It's REALLY nice to have young pitching, relievers or starters, but Bryce Wilson? 

Payamps for a guy like Jack Leiter?  He's nearly 30, on his 6th team and he was very good last year...but the #2 pick in the draft a year ago?

I can't imagine the Rangers giving up on Lieter for just about any reliever at this point(Uribe maybe). He's in a very pitcher friendly league(s) and he's struggled with his command, but his stuff is still elite. 

Tidwell isn't as highly touted, but he's roughly comparable to a Carlos Rodriguez. The Mets can go out and buy a BP(Diaz is coming back for one). I don't think they'd trade a MRP for a really good prospect. And I really don't think the Rangers are trading a player they've not long ago picked 2nd and who's reached AAA and has TOR talent.

 

Unless you're talking about an elite young arm like Uribe, I don't see the Rangers dealing Lieter for a reliever...even after a really good season...

Quality controllable relievers have value. 1.5 years of Paul Sewald got a slightly less but similar package to Hader. Both of those guys have 3 years of control, had 1.5 WAR, around 2.5 era's. I set my sights high on value, there are only 10-12 decent relievers and Payamps and Wilson won't make nearly as much as them. I agree that my returns are high but someone could very well overpay for either guy.

[SF70]

7 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

Quality controllable relievers have value. 1.5 years of Paul Sewald got a slightly less but similar package to Hader. Both of those guys have 3 years of control, had 1.5 WAR, around 2.5 era's. I set my sights high on value, there are only 10-12 decent relievers and Payamps and Wilson won't make nearly as much as them. I agree that my returns are high but someone could very well overpay for either guy.

Too much volatility in relievers will keep the trade returns down for arms like Payamps and Wilson.

Now Williams should be a different story due to his consistent dominance, especially to a team like Baltimore, who need a replacement for the loss of Bautista and whose cheap owner would love Williams arby salary the next 2 years.

[BrewerFan]

17 hours ago, SF70 said:

Too much volatility in relievers will keep the trade returns down for arms like Payamps and Wilson.

Now Williams should be a different story due to his consistent dominance, especially to a team like Baltimore, who need a replacement for the loss of Bautista and whose cheap owner would love Williams arby salary the next 2 years.

Agreed. Payamps I think you could get a solid return for(not that solid, but solid). I don't think Wilson has much value going into a season. He has more for us based on the questions around our SPing.

Williams, he should have more. Not AS much as I think has been suggested with multiple top 100, but I could see the Rangers being a good team to target.

Their payroll jumped 100M this past year and is already in the ~230 range for next year. That's a team I'd look at IF they come up short. Hell, I'd love to expand it to Burnes+Williams for Porter, Lieter and...Dustin Harris or whoever. I still think if adding Williams with Burnes gets you a premier young pitching talent, you do it. Porter may not be ranked as high, but I could see him being a top 20-25 prospect next ASB. 

[SF70]

3 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

Agreed. Payamps I think you could get a solid return for(not that solid, but solid). I don't think Wilson has much value going into a season. He has more for us based on the questions around our SPing.

Williams, he should have more. Not AS much as I think has been suggested with multiple top 100, but I could see the Rangers being a good team to target.

Their payroll jumped 100M this past year and is already in the ~230 range for next year. That's a team I'd look at IF they come up short. Hell, I'd love to expand it to Burnes+Williams for Porter, Lieter and...Dustin Harris or whoever. I still think if adding Williams with Burnes gets you a premier young pitching talent, you do it. Porter may not be ranked as high, but I could see him being a top 20-25 prospect next ASB. 

I’m not giving-up a contention season, which trading Burnes would likely do, not for prospects that this team doesn’t need.

Porter is 2-3 years away, Lieter a couple, IF he can fix his command. 

We have enough starter arms now all throughout the system that the team’s elite PDS can develop to fill a rotation without a Porter.

Gasser-CRod-Mis (ace/closer) Henderson-Internationals, then another wave with Knoth-Birchard & the HS’ers.

We can trade Williams and still contend because of the 4 or 5 headed monster we have returning from our bullpen, plus a minors with intriguing relievers and a FO with a proven track-record of finding arms outside of the organization.

 

[jay87shot]

38 minutes ago, SF70 said:

I’m not giving-up a contention season, which trading Burnes would likely do, not for prospects that this team doesn’t need.

Porter is 2-3 years away, Lieter a couple, IF he can fix his command. 

We have enough starter arms now all throughout the system that the team’s elite PDS can develop to fill a rotation without a Porter.

Gasser-CRod-Mis (ace/closer) Henderson-Internationals, then another wave with Knoth-Birchard & the HS’ers.

We can trade Williams and still contend because of the 4 or 5 headed monster we have returning from our bullpen, plus a minors with intriguing relievers and a FO with a proven track-record of finding arms outside of the organization.

 

I don't think trading Burnes gives up the season, my thinking is that by trading him we would play a little moneyball. Add a young starter that can take up part of his value, possible a 2nd piece as well, and then use the money he is owed to improve somewhere else. I agree getting a good prospect like Porter/Leiter wouldn't be ideal since they would be a bit away. My scenerios would be him going to LA for Pepiot and Miguel Vargas or Balt. Mayo and Norby and then signing a vet arm with upside like Luis Severino for a year to make up for Burnes.

I probably would trade whomever gets a better overall package between Burnes and Williams. Burnes carries more value as a starter but Williams has an extra year and some teams will be desperate for a lockdown closer and may overpay with Hader as the only high-end closer (assuming Kimbrel is not lockdown any more).

[SF70]

32 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

I don't think trading Burnes gives up the season, my thinking is that by trading him we would play a little moneyball. Add a young starter that can take up part of his value, possible a 2nd piece as well, and then use the money he is owed to improve somewhere else. I agree getting a good prospect like Porter/Leiter wouldn't be ideal since they would be a bit away. My scenerios would be him going to LA for Pepiot and Miguel Vargas or Balt. Mayo and Norby and then signing a vet arm with upside like Luis Severino for a year to make up for Burnes.

I probably would trade whomever gets a better overall package between Burnes and Williams. Burnes carries more value as a starter but Williams has an extra year and some teams will be desperate for a lockdown closer and may overpay with Hader as the only high-end closer (assuming Kimbrel is not lockdown any more).

No way Baltimore gives up Mayo PLUS Norby or the Dodgers 10-11 years of Pepiot-Vargas for 1 year of Burnes. Just too much.

Severino is perpetually injured and likely carries far too much risk for a team like MKE.

The problem with trading Burnes is the timing. Gasser will be a rookie, Ashby might have to pitch out of the bullpen next season, if at all, and CRod might need the year in AAA.

So that leaves Peralta-Houser-Gasser. Maybe they can bring back Miley or a comparable FA, but that leaves 2-more veteran arms needed additionally. 

Peralta plus 4-5 backend starters doesn’t give me much comfort going into next year even with our likely monstrous bullpen.

[BrewerFan]

On 10/23/2023 at 7:28 AM, jay87shot said:

I don't think trading Burnes gives up the season, my thinking is that by trading him we would play a little moneyball. Add a young starter that can take up part of his value, possible a 2nd piece as well, and then use the money he is owed to improve somewhere else. I agree getting a good prospect like Porter/Leiter wouldn't be ideal since they would be a bit away. My scenerios would be him going to LA for Pepiot and Miguel Vargas or Balt. Mayo and Norby and then signing a vet arm with upside like Luis Severino for a year to make up for Burnes.

I probably would trade whomever gets a better overall package between Burnes and Williams. Burnes carries more value as a starter but Williams has an extra year and some teams will be desperate for a lockdown closer and may overpay with Hader as the only high-end closer (assuming Kimbrel is not lockdown any more).

How are you using that? Playing a little moneyball is looking for an area that's undervalued and jumping on that. You're talking about signing high risk starters and hoping we can piecemeal a rotation together that combined with the loss of Burnes and/or Williams we'll make up for it.

That's...very unlikely. There's a reason you're talking about getting back multiple top 100 prospects back for one year of Burnes. It's because he's really good. 

I think you're optimistic and that's cool. And MAYBE you're right...everyone thinks they're the realist and deems people more either pessimistic or optimistic based on their view. But I would look at next year as a transition year if we're doing this...and that'd be my preference. IF you can get Miley back, Ashby is healthy, Peralta, a deep pen, Gasser, Rodriguez, maybe you have a surprising season. 

 

On 10/23/2023 at 6:38 AM, SF70 said:

I’m not giving-up a contention season, which trading Burnes would likely do, not for prospects that this team doesn’t need.

Porter is 2-3 years away, Lieter a couple, IF he can fix his command. 

Yeah, I understand your logic. I don't know that Porter is 2-3 years away. He was overwhelming and dominant in a full year of A-ball.

He'll start next year in HiA and that could VERY easily be a mid-season promotion. If he spends the whole year in HiA, then he starts '25 in AA at worse(assuming health which for the sake of this argument, you always assume otherwise you could just as easily do so for Burnes). By that point, he's a phone call away.

Leiter, he's in a hitter friendly league and the talent is unquestionably there and the Brewers manage to pull it out of pitchers.

 

BUT, the prospects are just guessing. We just have a difference of opinion. I'm alright giving up on contending in '24 as I don't think it's worth losing Burnes for just a QO. You talk about a long way away, you're talking about an extra pick in the '25 draft. Porter is just the near ideal prospect IMO. If he was doing this in AA, he'd be a top 10 prospect and nobody would trade him for Burnes.

So you give up a little longer wait for more upside. I'm sure you could get a Gasser type prospect(more specifically a Robbie Snelling for example). But I like the power righty with Cy Young potential even if it comes with a longer wait. 

On 10/23/2023 at 6:38 AM, SF70 said:

We have enough starter arms now all throughout the system that the team’s elite PDS can develop to fill a rotation without a Porter.

I don't want to just fill a rotation though, I want to find Top of the Rotation type arms. They can obviously help develop arms, but there's always going to be a limit. 

And ideally, those arms line up with Chourio, Black...and all the rest. 

On 10/23/2023 at 6:38 AM, SF70 said:

Gasser-CRod-Mis (ace/closer) Henderson-Internationals, then another wave with Knoth-Birchard & the HS’ers.

Misiorowski is one guy who COULD be an ace. He has a huge range of potential outcomes, but he's the one guy on this list you'd project to start a playoff series until you get to Knoth, a guy we just drafted out of HS.

The Internationals? Absolutely some very interesting young arms, but again, a long way away. 

 

I see the trepidation about "wasting" the Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta era, I understand you don't want to punt on next year. 

I'm just as worried about having the exact opposite problem with the next generation and not having enough pitching when we finally have an offense with some studs in it. 

Re the BP, I agree, that we'll be fine on and you can always solve that when you need to if it's really an issue. 

 

I take your point, you should try and win while you can, but already being down Woodruff next year, I think stepping back and trying to regroup for '25-'30 gives us a better chance to win. Watching AZ go to the World Series though...it really does once again spotlight how young talent and getting hot at the right time can propel a team to the next level.

 

[jay87shot]

10 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

How are you using that? Playing a little moneyball is looking for an area that's undervalued and jumping on that. You're talking about signing high risk starters and hoping we can piecemeal a rotation together that combined with the loss of Burnes and/or Williams we'll make up for it.

 

I don't have the numbers but 1st, 3rd, 2b, RF, DH, CF all were really poor for offensive season stats. So lets say Burnes is worth 4-6 WAR next year. In my head, trading Burnes gets us a 2nd/3rd baseman that hopefully adds 2 WAR, maybe a piece 2B/3rd that adds 1 and signing Severino or a different vet pitcher is like 3 WAR the parts traded for and the $ used elsewhere provides a similar value

[jay87shot]

What about Gio Urshela as an under the radar 3B signing, he was pretty good defensively there last year (only 270 innings) but has been a solid bat most of his career and would probably fit into a 1/2 year deal at a reasonable sum. We would still have Black and Monte to cover if injuries occur, and Gio can play some 1st or 2b if needed. 

[jay87shot]

What about this as a 3 team deal

We get Luke Raley, Brandon Lowe, Manny Margot

Rays get Willy Adames, Joey Weimer, and a reliever (Wilson/Peguero) 

We then flip Margot for a vet 1 year pitcher, say Sean Manaea

Raley would be a great 1st baseman for the future and Lowe would be great a 2B. Adames fills the SS hole and Weimer and the reliever give them some young upside to and Margot balances out money for the Rays. Probably needs some editing Raley/Lowe and Margot for Adames and reliever maybe works better

[BrewerFan]

3 hours ago, jay87shot said:

What about this as a 3 team deal

We get Luke Raley, Brandon Lowe, Manny Margot

Rays get Willy Adames, Joey Weimer, and a reliever (Wilson/Peguero) 

We then flip Margot for a vet 1 year pitcher, say Sean Manaea

Raley would be a great 1st baseman for the future and Lowe would be great a 2B. Adames fills the SS hole and Weimer and the reliever give them some young upside to and Margot balances out money for the Rays. Probably needs some editing Raley/Lowe and Margot for Adames and reliever maybe works better

The Rays have a top 5 prospect and Mead to play SS. I don't think they're trading for a year of Willy. 

The Rays are likely trading Glasnow, but...I doubt they're in the market for a SS. I also have no clue what's going on with Franco. I haven't paid attention to that story at all, but even assuming he's done, I think they're fine there.

 

[Brewcrew82]

5 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

The Rays have a top 5 prospect and Mead to play SS. I don't think they're trading for a year of Willy. 

The Rays are likely trading Glasnow, but...I doubt they're in the market for a SS. I also have no clue what's going on with Franco. I haven't paid attention to that story at all, but even assuming he's done, I think they're fine there.

 

Neither Caminero or Mead are going to be able to play SS in the majors. Or at the very least on a full-time basis.

They do, however, also have Carson Williams who is in AA and a top 50 prospect. 

[BrewerFan]

2 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Neither Caminero or Mead are going to be able to play SS in the majors. Or at the very least on a full-time basis.

They do, however, also have Carson Williams who is in AA and a top 50 prospect. 

I think Caminero can play SS, I just don't think they were planning on him playing there until the whole Franco thing happened. 

 

In any event, this is about the Brewers moves, so if it's Caminero, Mead, Williams...they're likely not trading for Adames, right? That feels like it's more the takeaway. 

[jay87shot]

I still think we could find a way to get Lowe or Raley. Weimer still. could be an option to get one of them if Adames isn't on the Ray's radar. I feel like the Ray's will do a bunch this offseason as there team is quickly getting more expensive. Harold Ramirez, Jonathan Aranda, and one of those prospects (Mead) could be good targets. 

[LouisEly]

Adames to the Dodgers for one of Pepiot/Sheehan/Stone

Payamps to the Orioles for Joey Ortiz

Burnes to the Braves for one of Smith-Shawver/Waldrep and Grissom

Black takes over 3B.  One year stopgap at 1B until Wilken is ready.

OF: Frelick, Mitchell, Taylor (until Chourio is ready)
3B: Black
SS: Ortiz
2B: Grissom
1B: (Santana/Canha?)
C: Contreras
DH: Yelich
Rotation: Peralta, Miley, Houser, Gasser, one of Pepiot/Sheehan/Stone
Pen: Williams, Megill, Milner, Uribe, Peguero, Wilson, Rea (swingman/spot starter), LHRP free agent/trade acquisition

AAA: Chourio, Wiemer, Turang, Wilken, Rodriguez, Smith-Shawver/Waldrep

I think that's ideal.  Gets value for impending FAs with young ML-ready talent, has some depth at AAA in case of injury/ineffectiveness.  Could be good enough to sneak into the playoffs.

[Brewcrew82]

28 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

Adames to the Dodgers for one of Pepiot/Sheehan/Stone

Payamps to the Orioles for Joey Ortiz

Burnes to the Braves for one of Smith-Shawver/Waldrep and Grissom

Black takes over 3B.  One year stopgap at 1B until Wilken is ready.

OF: Frelick, Mitchell, Taylor (until Chourio is ready)
3B: Black
SS: Ortiz
2B: Grissom
1B: (Santana/Canha?)
C: Contreras
DH: Yelich
Rotation: Peralta, Miley, Houser, Gasser, one of Pepiot/Sheehan/Stone
Pen: Williams, Megill, Milner, Uribe, Peguero, Wilson, Rea (swingman/spot starter), LHRP free agent/trade acquisition

AAA: Chourio, Wiemer, Turang, Wilken, Rodriguez, Smith-Shawver/Waldrep

I think that's ideal.  Gets value for impending FAs with young ML-ready talent, has some depth at AAA in case of injury/ineffectiveness.  Could be good enough to sneak into the playoffs.

I'd rather trade Devin Williams to the Orioles for Ortiz and Heston Kjerstad. 

[TURBO]

Grissom has a ton of red flags if you ask me.  Maybe a change in scenery would help him, but I'm not sure he is a guy I'd be targeting.

[LouisEly]

10 minutes ago, TURBO said:

Grissom has a ton of red flags if you ask me.  Maybe a change in scenery would help him, but I'm not sure he is a guy I'd be targeting.

Such as?  And why would a guy who is only 22 years old need a change of scenery?

His minor league OBP, while always being 1.3 - 4 years younger than league average, is .407 with a B:K ratio of 3:4.  Teenagers with that type of plate discipline aren't common.  He was in the majors by the age of 21.  I have him moving to 2B if the concern is SS defense.  Hopefully people aren't judging him by his performance as 21-22 year old in MLB.

[jay87shot]

Grissom's only red flag is his defense. he was passable in 2022 at 2nd (not great) horrific at SS this year. He is a good athlete and my guess is he will be fine at 2nd long term.

 Any chance we could get into a Soto trade as a 3rd team. 

SD gets Burnes, Oswaldo Cabrera, Ron Marinachio

Yanks get Soto, Houser

We get Clarke Scmidt, Chase Hampton, Graham Pauley

SD gets Burnes, a young OF, and established pen arm. The Yanks get Soto (and Houser) and we get 2 high upside arms, and a solid IF prospect. That would be more than we would get in a Burnes alone deal.

[Brewcrew82]

20 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

Grissom's only red flag is his defense. he was passable in 2022 at 2nd (not great) horrific at SS this year. He is a good athlete and my guess is he will be fine at 2nd long term.

 Any chance we could get into a Soto trade as a 3rd team. 

SD gets Burnes, Oswaldo Cabrera, Ron Marinachio

Yanks get Soto, Houser

We get Clarke Scmidt, Chase Hampton, Graham Pauley

SD gets Burnes, a young OF, and established pen arm. The Yanks get Soto (and Houser) and we get 2 high upside arms, and a solid IF prospect. That would be more than we would get in a Burnes alone deal.

Not enough from the Brewers' perspective. Way too much to the Padres. 

[jay87shot]

On 10/28/2023 at 7:05 PM, Brewcrew82 said:

Not enough from the Brewers' perspective. Way too much to the Padres. 

Move Marinaccio to the Brewers or change him in Trey Sweeney?

 

[jay87shot]

Sorry for all the scenarios but here's another

1) Burnes  to Toronto for SS/3B Orvelis Martinez, P Alex Manoah, and 1B Spencer Horwitz

This depends a bit on how you value Manoah but we get a top 100 prospect, a potential/former top of the rotation pitcher, and intersting 1B option.

2) Payamps and Robert Moore for 2B Connor Norby

I kind of have developed a thing for Norby, the O's get bullpen helps and a lesser prospect we get a power hitting 2B.

3) Weimer for P Gavin Stone

We get a pitching version of Weimer essentially.

4)Willy Adames for P Trevor Rogers and 1B Troy Johnston

The Marlins fill a major hole, we get an upside arm and another interesting 1B option.

Pickup option on Canha, sign a vet minor league contract catcher and a bunch of minor league contract arms.

Basically no DH (splits between Canha, Yeli, Contreras), Black at 3B, Martinez to AAA but Turang gets short leash if the bat isn't better. 

Rotation goes 6 deep with some great upside if Manoah and Rogers revert to better selves, the bullpen is still a strength.