2023-24 Offseason Ideas

[wibadgers23]

Trade Burnes to the Rangers, Dodgers, or Orioles for a package of prospects. I think you can still compete in the NL Central with a rotation of Woody, Peralta, Houser, Gasser and a veteran pickup like Miley. The bullpen will be pretty good. The offense will see a bit of a youth movement with Frelick, Mitchell, Turang, Chourio, Wiemer, Black, etc. I could see one of the young outfielders not named Chourio get traded too.

[jay87shot]

Any chance we could make a 3 team deal to get Bobby Witt Jr.?  I know the Royals would get destroyed by their fans and would never do it. However from a organizational standpoint they have nothing on the big league roster after Witt and Pasquintino. No quality starters or decent bullpen options. Add to that a weak minor league system with really no interesting prospects above A+ ball. In reality they should trade Witt for 5 or 6 high quality young players. Here's my idea.

We get Bobby Witt Jr. and Scott Barlow 

Yankees get Corbin Burnes

Royals get Clarke Schmidt, Chase Hampton, Oswald Peraza, Joey Weimer/Garrett Mitchell, and Eric Brown Jr., Elvis Peguro

The Royals get 6 solid pieces that give there rebuild some hope with 4 of those being able to immediately improve the big league team. 

For us we turn a year of Burnes, an excess OF, and 2 extra intriguing pieces into a generational talent that fits into our youth perfectly.

The Yanks (or whoever pays the Royals price for Burnes) get the top non Shohei arm on the market for 3 non top 50 style prospects.

I know not happening but Witt would be so perfect.

[jay87shot]

I am running with my previous Witt trade above.

Trade Woodruff to the Dodgers for Ryan Pepiot, Landon Knack, and Jorbit Vivas

Trade Williams to Texas for Brock Porter, Justin Foscue, Marc Church

Flip Jeferson Quero for Curtis Mead

Re-sign Miley, Chafin (decline option and sign), and Caratini 1 year deals. Sign Lance Lynn and 1 year deal.  Go super young with a plethora of awesome young arms.

C=Contreras, Caratini

1B=Black, Mead

2B,SS,3B= Mead, Foscue, Turang, Witt

OF= Chourio, Weimer/Mitchell, Frelick, Yeli, Black

DH=Yeli

SP=Peralta, Ashby, Pepiot, Miley, Lynn Depth=Gasser, Knack, Rodriguez, Misi, Porter

Pen=Payamps, Uribe, Chafin, Milner, Wilson, Barlow, Church/Megill/Andrews/etc.

Obviously this is crazy but there is a crazy amount of potential in that roster.

[BrewerFan]

14 hours ago, jay87shot said:

We probably could get a mid-level prospect or two, maybe a decent mlb reliever (not high end). I would look into trading Willy especially if we get a quality SS/2B prospect in a separate trade. Don't forget we would save a bunch of money by trading him as well.

 

I think Williams will have more value than Hader. Hader had just had a horrific month and had an ERA around 5, if I remember correctly. Paul Sewald got a similar return as Hader this year, so Williams with an extra half year and with half the ERA should have a bunch more. I don't mind packaging him but not with Burnes or Woody.

Ok, if that's all your getting for Adames, I think it'd make a lot more sense to keep him rather than selling low on him. 

 

And I do not think Williams would have more value. Sewald got a significantly worse return than Hader. They got a guy who's ~30 years old and a...4th OFer at best. A two guys in the 14-15 range for Seattle, not a particularly good system.

That's not all that close to Gasser...plus getting back another closer and Ruiz who had quite a bit of helium.

Hader has had one of the greatest starts to his MLB career for a reliever EVER. 

`285IP, 2.26 ERA, 15.4 K/9
He was even better in the playoffs with ~20IP, a 1.37 ERA, 1.22 FIP

Devin Williams has been...GREAT. He hasn't pitched in the playoffs(injured both times) and I think we saw last year, that extra half year isn't that big of a deal. But I don't think you're getting a top 100 pitcher, a AA MIFer and then Church is a...Uribe type prospect for me. A level below, but I love that addition.

I'm just struggling to see a top 100+2 more guys in AA and AAA for 2 years of Williams when we got Gasser(who is below Porter value wise). Foscue, a guy probably just outside the top 100 and then Church. 

I'd be thrilled though.

 

The cost to Miller Park/Am Fam, whatever...those are gonna rise by another 200M after I start pounding on the door beating it down if they trade Quero! 

If you're trading a Catcher like Quero, I'm gonna want Caminero back instead. Mead is a 2B with his poor throwing arm. Maybe you throw in Lara or something, but that's who I'd wnt back. Developing catchers is 2nd only to starting pitchers and maybe more difficult. We've got a good one. I think a future AS. I don't want Mead...impressive though he may be. 

I don't think TB is moving off Caminero...especially with so much questions around Franco...which it SEEMS like this was from years ago, but...I don't know. I don't know how they keep developing guys like that.  But assuming this WAS from when Franco was 18 and she's 19 now and her 2 year old isn't Franco's(early days, started with a Reddit post, so IDK)...but then myaybe they trade him. 

That'd answer 3B and then Black plays 2B and your lineup is set. 
Frelick/Chourio/Yelich/Caminero/Contreras/Black/Wiemer/Turang then Monastario at 2B., Black at 1B or Yelich at 1B and leave DH open or get a JD Martinez. Maybe Tellez, Hiura...IDK, but that's 8 spots set in stone for a long time...and I don't think we get Caminero back, but I'm stubborn on Quero. And I can see how much value Contreras could have in a year or two. He may be our ticket to getting a big pitcher.

 

I'm more worried about filling in around our top prospects than trading a C for a 2B for a better fit unless you get a truly elite prospect.

[Never Outhustled]

Goal for the offseason is the same as the last 2 years. Add a bat. I hope they don't strike out a 3rd time. 

Only deal Burnes if we can't add a bat. We have prospects, we don't need to be trading for other teams prospects. 

[mtsportsfan]

3 hours ago, Never Outhustled said:

Goal for the offseason is the same as the last 2 years. Add a bat. I hope they don't strike out a 3rd time. 

Only deal Burnes if we can't add a bat. We have prospects, we don't need to be trading for other teams prospects. 

Burnes is definitely gone ! Even if we could afford him he would want to be traded. The question is , asking because I don't know . Do you get more value in a trade in the off season or around the trade deadline ? I guess the off season makes more sense , could you imagine the backlash if you trade him next year at the deadline and your still in the running for a play off spot ! 

[True Blue Brew Crew]

So let's say the Brewers trade Burnes in the offseason and then are in 2024 playoff contention. Come the July trade deadline, the young bats have blossomed, the young rotation replacements have held their own, and it's said loudly by fans and pundits, that they're just a top end starter away from being a serious WS contender. They consider making a CC Sabathia type move and the price is 2-3 top prospects for a rental. Wouldn't it have just made more sense to hold on to Burnes and not have to trade away a handful prospects on par with the ones who just got when you traded Burnes prior to the season. Since the Brewers still look to be competitive in 2024, there's an argument to be made that keeping him (and Woodruff) and getting draft pick compensation between rounds 1 and 2 in the 2025 draft, is a sensible option.

[Never Outhustled]

1 hour ago, mtsportsfan said:

Burnes is definitely gone ! Even if we could afford him he would want to be traded. The question is , asking because I don't know . Do you get more value in a trade in the off season or around the trade deadline ? I guess the off season makes more sense , could you imagine the backlash if you trade him next year at the deadline and your still in the running for a play off spot ! 

Nah, we could contend next year with Burnes if we add a real bat. Then take the draft pick. Try to do in the draft what we did this year. The extra pick gives us a huge pool to work with. I don't want other teams prospects, we have our own. 

[nate82]

I still believe the Brewers plan for next year is to compete unless they are absolutely overblown with an offer for Burnes or Woodruff.  Adames maybe traded in the off season to the Dodgers but nailing down a return for that is extremely difficult.  Adames still brings elite level defense at SS and his bat this year has been absolutely awful but better than what the Dodgers have been putting out there.  I don't believe the Dodgers see Lux as an everyday SS and instead see him more as a 2B.

[BrewerFan]

17 hours ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

So let's say the Brewers trade Burnes in the offseason and then are in 2024 playoff contention. Come the July trade deadline, the young bats have blossomed, the young rotation replacements have held their own, and it's said loudly by fans and pundits, that they're just a top end starter away from being a serious WS contender. They consider making a CC Sabathia type move and the price is 2-3 top prospects for a rental. Wouldn't it have just made more sense to hold on to Burnes and not have to trade away a handful prospects on par with the ones who just got when you traded Burnes prior to the season. Since the Brewers still look to be competitive in 2024, there's an argument to be made that keeping him (and Woodruff) and getting draft pick compensation between rounds 1 and 2 in the 2025 draft, is a sensible option.

There is a much stronger argument to keeping Burnes and Woodruff when you have the 3rd rated farm system in the game and players coming up behind this current crop...than there was when you had the 20th ranked farm system and you had a couple of blue chip prospects.

Hopefully you'd be looking at offering 3 Qualifying offers with Adames earning one...and then you've got a very healthy bonus pool again and we could hopefully see another draft that follows the model of this past draft. 

The problem in my opinion is the final year of those players doesn't line up as well as you'd hope with the prospects. Black, Quero and Chourio at best will be rookies(I'd guess Quero will spend most of next year in AAA short of any injury issues or another black hole at DH that necessitates moving Contreras to DH on a more regular basis). 

I just think you're gonna be in a better place the next 5-6 years if you get young pitching that can come up and develop with the young hitters then going for it all in one year. 

 

As a fan, it's sure as hell be a lot more fun to ride it out and see Chourio and Burnes on the field together. And if Attanasio is to be believed, and call me naïve, but I do...I think the money is that to increase the payroll in a year they think they can be competitive. So while Burnes(~20), Woody(~20), Yelich(22) and Adames(12? I have no idea with him) making ~75M among the 4 of them, I think they should be able to pull that off with the youth and pre arby players all over the field. 

[BrewerFan]

13 hours ago, nate82 said:

I still believe the Brewers plan for next year is to compete unless they are absolutely overblown with an offer for Burnes or Woodruff.  Adames maybe traded in the off season to the Dodgers but nailing down a return for that is extremely difficult.  Adames still brings elite level defense at SS and his bat this year has been absolutely awful but better than what the Dodgers have been putting out there.  I don't believe the Dodgers see Lux as an everyday SS and instead see him more as a 2B.

On the heels of a 3-5 and 4-4, 1BB game now, Adames looks like he's getting going a bit.

Part of it has been an abnormally low BABIP(.232 just a week or so ago, not up to .244). A strong finish to the season and a productive playoff run could rebuild a whole lot of value. No clue what LAD would give up for him, but a 1 for 1 with a guy like Pepiot would be good with me. 

[Playing Catch]

Trying to balance the value of Adames is tricky. He's a good defender, He has some power, a positive in the clubhouse/leader (presumably). His on-field dollar value is probably around $8M/season, but he'll probably get about $20M/season in FA. There are enough big-spenders that would be happy to have him (Yankees, Dodgers, Braves), but will they be motivated to trade for him? Does he boost your SS production enough for 1 season to give up a good prospect for him? I mean, maybe. My guess is that his offensive production in that Braves lineup would be really, really good (The Braves 8/9 hitters, batting ahead of Acuna are batting a cool .279).

So, yes, he has some value.

Then for the Brewers... are you only willing to trade for MLB contributors, or are you willing to take teenagers in exchange? If you're requiring contributors in exchange, you're probably looking at 40-man roster filler, rather than high ceiling guys, and those guys won't fill the WAR void that they're losing with Adames.

I think this goes for all of Burnes/Woody/Adames. I think the Brewers will either keep them through free agency, or trade them for high-ceiling teenagers. The only teams in the market for those 3 players will be competitive teams, so unless the Brewers are able to pluck a prospect that is perhaps, blocked, and/or up against rule-5 roster rules, they won't be getting back a big-league contributor for 2024.

I think next season will really test their organizational strategy. Do they "go for it," keeping their core and adding a FA stick (Rhys Hoskins? He'd probably cost $20M/season). Or do they stay with their organizational strategy, take a half-step back, trading those guys for A-ballers, still trying to "compete" in 2024?

I suppose they could still choose option C: package Adames with a guy like Wiemer for a guy with a couple of seasons of control (e.g. Ty France, Josh Naylor, WhiteSoxGuys)

They are in a tough spot, but an enviable one. Even as a fan, I'm not sure which strategy I would prefer. Before this season, I would predict that they would trade 'em and take a step back, but with the strength of the farm right now, I wonder if they feel comfortable enough with 2025+ that they can envision letting those guys walk in free agency.

[Never Outhustled]

Hopefully Adrian Houser can finish strong. He's the starting pitcher to deal in the offseason. Attach a prospect or 2, or maybe a reliever, and get an actual hitter. 

[nate82]

1 minute ago, Never Outhustled said:

Hopefully Adrian Houser can finish strong. He's the starting pitcher to deal in the offseason. Attach a prospect or 2, or maybe a reliever, and get an actual hitter. 

You are not getting much for Houser even if he finishes strong.  He is a #4 or #5 starter depending on how you look at him.  It will be his final arbitration year and he will be making about the same as a FA #4 or #5 starter so not much surplus value left to trade from. 

If you are adding a prospect in a Houser deal why even deal Houser?  The only thing you are going to be getting back is salary relief.  You may even lower the value of the deal meaning you will get less in return than if you just dealt the prospect without Houser. 

I like Houser but he is what he is.  There is not much value in trading #5 starters who are a year away from free agency.  You are basically just going to get back a AAAA type of player or someone like Winker.  You will either need to take on a similar salary meaning they are probably about the same value as Houser which means they are definitely not going to be an "actual hitter".

[BrewerFan]

19 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

Trying to balance the value of Adames is tricky. He's a good defender, He has some power, a positive in the clubhouse/leader (presumably). His on-field dollar value is probably around $8M/season, but he'll probably get about $20M/season in FA. There are enough big-spenders that would be happy to have him (Yankees, Dodgers, Braves), but will they be motivated to trade for him? Does he boost your SS production enough for 1 season to give up a good prospect for him? I mean, maybe. My guess is that his offensive production in that Braves lineup would be really, really good (The Braves 8/9 hitters, batting ahead of Acuna are batting a cool .279).

So, yes, he has some value.

Then for the Brewers... are you only willing to trade for MLB contributors, or are you willing to take teenagers in exchange? If you're requiring contributors in exchange, you're probably looking at 40-man roster filler, rather than high ceiling guys, and those guys won't fill the WAR void that they're losing with Adames.

I think this goes for all of Burnes/Woody/Adames. I think the Brewers will either keep them through free agency, or trade them for high-ceiling teenagers. The only teams in the market for those 3 players will be competitive teams, so unless the Brewers are able to pluck a prospect that is perhaps, blocked, and/or up against rule-5 roster rules, they won't be getting back a big-league contributor for 2024.

 

Based on Adames production thus far, you're probably looking at lower level prospects with nice upside. I do NOT think that's the case with Burnes especially, but Woofruff either. 

For an arm like Burnes I think you're looking at a Luis Castillo return...or if nothing else, a Scherzer/Verlander return. 

Scherzer netted the Mets a top 50 prospect and Verlander a former 1st round pick who was absolutely crushing the ball in AAA. 

Burnes is a Cy Young winner and the type of pitcher that can help push a team like...the Phillies(that's the team I keep going back to) over the top and they've got a number of young arms). Or the Rangers if they come up short.

Woodruff isn't going to have the same value, but I still expect at least a top 100 prospect and then a couple HiA type talented arms.

 

But if you're not getting at LEAST an Acun type prospect back for Burnes, it really doesn't make sense to trade him or Burnes.

Adames, again, totally different group. He might be worth trying to extend at a reasonable rate(I trust the underlying metrics and his defense). And his value has completely collapsed. I'd think most like 4/70 with a 5th year option at 25M. IF he doesn't take it, run it back with him, hope he bounce back and you offer the QO.

 

Getting the QO for all three would hurt in the short run, but you' d then go into another draft with a very large bonus pool and would have 5 picks...assuming all declined and they'd be in the top 40 or so. 

 

The Brewers will be picking after the 1st round in the '25 draft, you'd had 3 more. The picks are worth ~2.5M. That's nearly the size of our signing bonus THIS YEAR to go out and acquire talent.

That would be like Knoth, Soto, White and Sykora just from the QU and the existing comp pick we'd have coming. This was a better draft, but if you look at it like that, it's a little easier pill to swallow. 4 prep arms, so high risk, but I'd take my chances on developing a couple of them. LAD and SD seem to take prep arms year after year and they seem to do pretty well with them. 

 

I'm still willing to deal Williams with Burnes to maximize the return and I don't believe we're going to run it back with these guys and then add a player for 15-20M next year...and given like 2 of the top 15 prospects are pitchers, I'd assume they're going to get overpaid.

 

I'd assume we just see what we're offered this year for the 2(or 3) and if it's not enough, play out the season, see if there's a team that's on  pitcher away and how we're looking, if CC back. There will be so many variables that go into it, but I still think this FO is going to balk at the idea of letting Burnes walk for nothingg.

[BrewerFan]

8 hours ago, nate82 said:

You are not getting much for Houser even if he finishes strong.  He is a #4 or #5 starter depending on how you look at him.  It will be his final arbitration year and he will be making about the same as a FA #4 or #5 starter so not much surplus value left to trade from. 

If you are adding a prospect in a Houser deal why even deal Houser?  The only thing you are going to be getting back is salary relief.  You may even lower the value of the deal meaning you will get less in return than if you just dealt the prospect without Houser. 

I like Houser but he is what he is.  There is not much value in trading #5 starters who are a year away from free agency.  You are basically just going to get back a AAAA type of player or someone like Winker.  You will either need to take on a similar salary meaning they are probably about the same value as Houser which means they are definitely not going to be an "actual hitter".

I think there are a whole lot of teams that'll happily take Houser back without demanding we match his salary. I'd think a team like LAD or TB would believe they could work with him and turn him around or use him in a different fashion.

We're not getting a good reliever AND a hitter back unless they're guys in LowA and players we scouted and pick from and then they eventually become those things, but I tinnk Houser and even Lauer will have SOME value. With him, it's particularly important on how he comes back, what the velo looks like and how he finishes the year.

 

This is why I think the "one more run, Rhys Hoskins" crowd will be disappointed. I think we'll shop around the players on the margins, the Rowdy, Lauer, Houser, Canha, Chaffin, those are guys who are clearly not back. Wade Miley is a guy I wonder if they MIGHT consider bringing back. He's been outstanding...when healthy, but how much does ~100IP of a ~3.00 ERA go for? And he's was one year removed from a 5.3 WAR. That's the only contract I could see them opting to bring back and even then I thnk it's more likely they try and get a paycut. 

Maybe 6M and another 10M option. He's already get 1M in the buyout(though perhaps they could tie that in.

And then on the other hand I see Gasser, Rodriguez, Uribe, Milner, Peguero, McGill(hopefully), Payamps, Williams to back up Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta/Ashby.

 

Man,  really have NO clue what they'll do next year. 

[BrewerFan]

21 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

Trying to balance the value of Adames is tricky. He's a good defender, He has some power, a positive in the clubhouse/leader (presumably). His on-field dollar value is probably around $8M/season, but he'll probably get about $20M/season in FA.

This year has definitely made it much more difficult to guage his open market value, but I think his on field value is worth substantially more than 8M.

Last two years, 4.2 and 4.4 WAR. This year he's down to 1.5, but his last month his BABIP has bounced back and his line is a respectable(though hardly elite) .262.343.385  .727 OPS. With his elite defense...I still don't know where he comes out. Dansby Swanson was the comp and now he's fallen off this year. So I'm happy to let him play it out on the QO.

[SF70]

21 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

Trying to balance the value of Adames is tricky. He's a good defender, He has some power, a positive in the clubhouse/leader (presumably). His on-field dollar value is probably around $8M/season, but he'll probably get about $20M/season in FA. There are enough big-spenders that would be happy to have him (Yankees, Dodgers, Braves), but will they be motivated to trade for him? Does he boost your SS production enough for 1 season to give up a good prospect for him? I mean, maybe. My guess is that his offensive production in that Braves lineup would be really, really good (The Braves 8/9 hitters, batting ahead of Acuna are batting a cool .279).

So, yes, he has some value.

Then for the Brewers... are you only willing to trade for MLB contributors, or are you willing to take teenagers in exchange? If you're requiring contributors in exchange, you're probably looking at 40-man roster filler, rather than high ceiling guys, and those guys won't fill the WAR void that they're losing with Adames.

I think this goes for all of Burnes/Woody/Adames. I think the Brewers will either keep them through free agency, or trade them for high-ceiling teenagers. The only teams in the market for those 3 players will be competitive teams, so unless the Brewers are able to pluck a prospect that is perhaps, blocked, and/or up against rule-5 roster rules, they won't be getting back a big-league contributor for 2024.

I think next season will really test their organizational strategy. Do they "go for it," keeping their core and adding a FA stick (Rhys Hoskins? He'd probably cost $20M/season). Or do they stay with their organizational strategy, take a half-step back, trading those guys for A-ballers, still trying to "compete" in 2024?

I suppose they could still choose option C: package Adames with a guy like Wiemer for a guy with a couple of seasons of control (e.g. Ty France, Josh Naylor, WhiteSoxGuys)

They are in a tough spot, but an enviable one. Even as a fan, I'm not sure which strategy I would prefer. Before this season, I would predict that they would trade 'em and take a step back, but with the strength of the farm right now, I wonder if they feel comfortable enough with 2025+ that they can envision letting those guys walk in free agency.

Not just the strength of the farm, but the proven strength of this team’s drafting-skill. 4 great drafts in a row shows a pattern, a system that can be counted on to repeat.

Trade Burnes if the prospect haul is sufficient, keep the other 2 for the picks, use the money savings (Burnes $16M) on a bat (Hoskins?), bring back Miley or a comparable FA starter, add Gasser and Ashby and offensively develop the young positional talent like the Reds andOrioles are doing and go contend for another central title.

[jay87shot]

9 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

Based on Adames production thus far, you're probably looking at lower level prospects with nice upside. I do NOT think that's the case with Burnes especially, but Woofruff either. 

For an arm like Burnes I think you're looking at a Luis Castillo return...or if nothing else, a Scherzer/Verlander return. 

Scherzer netted the Mets a top 50 prospect and Verlander a former 1st round pick who was absolutely crushing the ball in AAA. 

Burnes is a Cy Young winner and the type of pitcher that can help push a team like...the Phillies(that's the team I keep going back to) over the top and they've got a number of young arms). Or the Rangers if they come up short.

Woodruff isn't going to have the same value, but I still expect at least a top 100 prospect and then a couple HiA type talented arms.

 

But if you're not getting at LEAST an Acun type prospect back for Burnes, it really doesn't make sense to trade him or Burnes.

Adames, again, totally different group. He might be worth trying to extend at a reasonable rate(I trust the underlying metrics and his defense). And his value has completely collapsed. I'd think most like 4/70 with a 5th year option at 25M. IF he doesn't take it, run it back with him, hope he bounce back and you offer the QO.

 

Getting the QO for all three would hurt in the short run, but you' d then go into another draft with a very large bonus pool and would have 5 picks...assuming all declined and they'd be in the top 40 or so. 

 

The Brewers will be picking after the 1st round in the '25 draft, you'd had 3 more. The picks are worth ~2.5M. That's nearly the size of our signing bonus THIS YEAR to go out and acquire talent.

That would be like Knoth, Soto, White and Sykora just from the QU and the existing comp pick we'd have coming. This was a better draft, but if you look at it like that, it's a little easier pill to swallow. 4 prep arms, so high risk, but I'd take my chances on developing a couple of them. LAD and SD seem to take prep arms year after year and they seem to do pretty well with them. 

 

I'm still willing to deal Williams with Burnes to maximize the return and I don't believe we're going to run it back with these guys and then add a player for 15-20M next year...and given like 2 of the top 15 prospects are pitchers, I'd assume they're going to get overpaid.

 

I'd assume we just see what we're offered this year for the 2(or 3) and if it's not enough, play out the season, see if there's a team that's on  pitcher away and how we're looking, if CC back. There will be so many variables that go into it, but I still think this FO is going to balk at the idea of letting Burnes walk for nothingg.

I agree Burnes and Woody would bring in something solid, I would put the value of Burnes above the Schezer/Verlander trade but below Castillo. Woody would be more in line with Scherzer/Verlander, the money the Mets ate makes those two deals a little hard to decipher. When it comes down to it there 7 top of the rotation arms potentially available in free agency Ohtani, Urias, Kershaw, Nola, Giolito, Gray, and Snell with some solid #3 starters Stroman, Lorenzen, Montgomery, Paxton, maybe Morton, Lynn, Wacha with a few upside reclamation targets Severino, Ryu, Marquez, Montas. Once those big names get signed the Burnes market should heat up. However with guys like Dylan Cease, Shane Beiber, possibly Glasnow and a Mariners pitcher there will be lots of options for the many pitching needy teams.

That being said just about every decent team will need 1 or 2 top line starters so there should be a big market for Burnes even with all the free agents and other trade candidates. I still really really like the idea of a Paul Goldschmidt (plus a prospect) for Burnes. I know we don't want to face Burnes long term but on paper it would be a perfect deal we could afford to extend Goldy another year or 2 after 24' and the Cards can probably pay Burnes a hefty amount to steady their rotation. The Reds would be another great spot where we could land someone like Christian Encarnacion-Strand (not a big India fan). I get in reality there are likely 8 or so other teams that would offer great packages and aren't in division.

Adames probably isn't worth dealing unless we get a big mlb ready 2B/SS in another trade, his upside is more than a mediocre prospect or two. I doubt he would take a low ball offer this offseason but I would consider extending him for like 4/50 with an opt. out after 25'. 

[BrewerFan]

22 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

I still really really like the idea of a Paul Goldschmidt (plus a prospect) for Burnes.

This just doesn't make sense to me. You're taking on a pending FA...who...we're almost certainly not going to re-sign for Burnes?

That prospect better be Tink Hence(and for that, I'll throw in Williams while they balance that out with a guy like Roby). 

I guess if you're trading away Burnes, your chances at winning a WS drop...significantly. Replacing our 1B production with Goldy would be great...but he's a 36 going on 37(?) year old 1B and I don't think he wants to leave STL. I'm also not sure who they'd replace him with in a year they'd clearly be in it to win a WS(unless they got Ohtani and then...throw Walker in there for a year, even if it's a waste of his talent). 

 

I really feel like the Brewers should really be looking for a top ~50 pitching prospect who, again, like Painter, has had TJ surgery or Griff McGrarry(he's actually maybe the most likely as he's fallen in the rankings a bit, but he's got elite stuff and the Phillies have two pitchers in the top ~45, but McGrarry is in AA, 75 FB, upper 90s, 5 pitch mix, good curve and slider, a change that can be a plus pitch and a cutting that improving.

 

I think we're too focused on finding a 1B/3B for Burnes. Pitching is what got us there. use Burnes to bring in more pitching the Brewers can work with. Our future lineup looks great as it stands. Boeve and Wilken may well be making their debut by next year. And you probably save ~30M a year the next two years by not going after Goldy. 

 

Basically I'm looking at it like...if we compete in '24 with young talent, great...but I don't think you should trade Burnes and then go back and try to win again. And I'd hate facing him. But Goldy, Roby and Hence for Burnes and Wiliams, I'm in. Even if it means having to see Burnes on the Cards. 

[Playing Catch]

Tink Hence? Griff McGrarry? C'mon, you're just making these names up, aren't you?

[owbc]

I think the ship has largely sailed on trading these guys. The time to do it would have been last offseason and we're lucky we didn't because nobody saw the Cards' collapse coming. Letting the Cubs coast to an 80-something win divisional title would have been an embarrassment. 

Given all three of them being on the same timetable, it seems silly to trade only one or two of them. Adames would be the most obvious to ship, but the return doesn't seem worth it. I would hang on to all three and use that as incentive to get Counsell to come back for one more year. 

The biggest risk is that the Cubs or Reds break out in 2024 and the Brewers are out of contention at the deadline, in which case they can sell and get returns that will be nearly as good as what they would get in the offseason. 

And it's not like they would walk for nothing in free agency, we can get the compensatory draft pick(s) and you are tacking another year onto the competitive window which is quite juicy right now with the division being weak and having enough top-tier pitching to get to the NLCS if the stars align. 

[wntrtxn21]

10 minutes ago, owbc said:

I think the ship has largely sailed on trading these guys. The time to do it would have been last offseason and we're lucky we didn't because nobody saw the Cards' collapse coming. Letting the Cubs coast to an 80-something win divisional title would have been an embarrassment. 

Given all three of them being on the same timetable, it seems silly to trade only one or two of them. Adames would be the most obvious to ship, but the return doesn't seem worth it. I would hang on to all three and use that as incentive to get Counsell to come back for one more year. 

The biggest risk is that the Cubs or Reds break out in 2024 and the Brewers are out of contention at the deadline, in which case they can sell and get returns that will be nearly as good as what they would get in the offseason. 

And it's not like they would walk for nothing in free agency, we can get the compensatory draft pick(s) and you are tacking another year onto the competitive window which is quite juicy right now with the division being weak and having enough top-tier pitching to get to the NLCS if the stars align. 

Please remember the draft pick is not automatic. The Brewers have to make a qualifing offer which is probably going to be over $21M after next year.  Burnes and Woody would turn it down, but would the Brewers want to keep Adames for 21-22 million dollars?  Trading Adames seems like the best option even if the return isn't great. I still think Milwaukee could get a pretty nice return for Burnes in the off season. It would have to be to a big money team that can afford to re-sign him, but there are options.

[wallus]

6 minutes ago, wntrtxn21 said:

Burnes and Woody would turn it down, but would the Brewers want to keep Adames for 21-22 million dollars?  .

I don't see any way that Willy would accept a one year deal unless he has a really brutal season next year.

[BrewerFan]

10 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

Tink Hence? Griff McGrarry? C'mon, you're just making these names up, aren't you?

LOL...it really does sound like someone who played on the 1883 Game between the Boston Beaneaters vs the Philadelphia Quackers.

Cannonball Titcomb will take the ball today throwing to John Wockenfuss as Snuffy Stirnweiss steps in to start the game with Peek-A-Boo Veach on deck and Dick Pole in the 3 hole today(you need the old timey radio voice and enunciating).

(These are all real names and...you REALLY could get dirty with it. There's a guy named Rusty who's name is...probably not suitable). There's also a player named "The Only Nolan." That...that was his given name. Amazing.