2023-24 Offseason Ideas

[Matt Breen]

1 hour ago, jay87shot said:

Any chance we could extend Canha to a 2 or 3 year deal at less than his 12 mill option. I feel like 2/18 or 3/24 wouldnt be to crazy, especially with a few incentives and him being 35.

I was thinking something similar. I had suggested as a 2-year $15M deal a few weeks ago - but I'm guessing Canha's performance has upped that a little. Canha will be 35 next Feb., so I would really try and keep things to a two year deal. 

I like the guy to play 1B for a couple of years (assuming someone like Black isn't moved there). Plus he can sub in the OF and DH. 

[Matt Breen]

On 9/18/2023 at 9:54 AM, sveumrules said:

I think this is mostly where I’m at with a few small tweaks.

Think they’ll tender Houser just for the depth he provides, and his Arby’s should still be reasonable.

I’d probably put Ashby on a relief track for 2024 with how his rehab outings have looked.

If Black doesn’t make OD, he’ll be up early enough getting time in the 3B/1B/DH mix & would also expect them to make at least one external acquisition for that mix as a hedge.

I struggle with Houser. I'm guessing he'll make around $5M next year. That's not terrible, but not good either. He certainly adds some experience to the mix. I can really go either way on him. Definitely keep the guy if they deal Burnes or Woody.

[wallus]

This is what I have at this point.

1. Bring back Miley if he is willing. He doesn't pitch a lot of innings and he is injury prone but at least he is good when he plays and he is a good clubhouse guy.

2. Pick up Canha's option. He would be overpaid but it's a one year deal and it would help us not rely so much on the young guys. (We would owe 2 million regardless)

3. Tyler Black needs to be on the team somewhere. I think he is eventually going to be a corner outfielder/DH, maybe even in 2024.

4. Trade Burnes and replace him in the rotation with Gasser. Small market teams can absolutely not let a guy like Burnes walk away for a draft pick. 

5. Keep Adames and Woodruff. I don't put those two guys in the same class as Burnes, especially Adames. I don't want to extend Woodruff because I think he is going to start being injury prone. If you can get a quality trade, I would trade Woodruff I guess. Otherwise you trade them at the deadline if you are out of contention or take the draft picks

6. Find a way to sign Candelario or Chapman. The team needs an extra vet to bring a reliable bat. If we trade Burnes, we should be able to afford Candelario at least.

7. Yelich needs to move to 1st base. I believe I saw some stats that he does not hit well when he DH's. I also think CC played him too often to start the year and he has been injured for a while now. Playing first will help out the OF depth and hopefully make it easier on CY moving forward.

8. No reason to bring back Rowdy or Lauer at their expected price tags. 

9. Bring back Houser. I feel like he is underrated by most and we will need the depth.

 

1. Frelick (RF)

2. Yelich (1B)

3. Candelario (3B)

4. Contreras (C)

5. Adames (SS)

6. Canha (LF)

7. Mitchell (CF)

8. Black (DH)

9. Turang (2B)

We would be setup well to call up Chourio later in the season if he is ready. I am assuming we would not get any MLB ready players from a Burnes trade.

SP - Woodruff, Peralta, Miley, Houser, Gasser
RP - Williams, Wilson, Payamps, Peguero, Milner, Megill, Uribe

We would have an incredible amount of payroll flexibility in two years to extend our young guys or make some big moves ala Cain and Yelich that one offseason.

[jay87shot]

On 9/18/2023 at 11:42 AM, reillymcshane said:

I struggle with Houser. I'm guessing he'll make around $5M next year. That terrible, but not good either. He certainly adds some experience to the mix. I can really go either way on him. Definitely keep the guy if they deal Burnes or Woody.

I would think Houser might be a good candidate to tender him a deal and then trade him. He does have a little value, look at how many teams don't have reliable 4/5 starters right now, even some of the big budget teams might want him as a 5/6 or long relief guy. Even if we just get a couple low level prospects it would be worth it. I am sure Arnold could maybe get someone like Peguero or Vieira for Houser.

Would the Giants be a possibility for a Yeli deal? He might waive a no trade for Cali, we could take back Conforto or Haniger to DH and counter some of Yeli's money and maybe get an interesting prospect. The Giants have lots of money and I doubt any of the big FA's go there.

 

 

[BrewerFan]

5 hours ago, jay87shot said:

I would think Houser might be a good candidate to tender him a deal and then trade him. He does have a little value, look at how many teams don't have reliable 4/5 starters right now, even some of the big budget teams might want him as a 5/6 or long relief guy. Even if we just get a couple low level prospects it would be worth it. I am sure Arnold could maybe get someone like Peguero or Vieira for Houser.

Would the Giants be a possibility for a Yeli deal? He might waive a no trade for Cali, we could take back Conforto or Haniger to DH and counter some of Yeli's money and maybe get an interesting prospect. The Giants have lots of money and I doubt any of the big FA's go there.

 

 

I think Ohtani is going to be a Giant or Dodger, but I think they'll definitely be in the mix for him. 

They're looking for a face of their franchise. I don't think Yelich is that, but he could fit into their lineup I suppose. If they get Ohtani, maybe a starting pitcher like Snell and then trade for Yelich(I'll take Conforto+Maldonado the 19 year old who spent part of the year in LowA ball this year with uneven results, but a big arm).

 

[TURBO]

I don't think bringing back Houser to trade him is a wise idea.  We just might be the team that needs the starting pitching depth with the fate of Burnes and Woodruff undecided.  

I'd like to sign him and Miley both, with the idea of keeping them around.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

16 hours ago, TURBO said:

I don't think bringing back Houser to trade him is a wise idea.  We just might be the team that needs the starting pitching depth with the fate of Burnes and Woodruff undecided.  

I'd like to sign him and Miley both, with the idea of keeping them around.

Agreed wholeheartedly. Solid seasons from Miley and Houser, along with depth signings like Rea working out are a huge reason why this team is likely going to break the 90-win barrier this year. Don't mess with a good thing to save a few pennies.

[jay87shot]

I guess for me keeping Houser depends on Burnes and Woodruff. If we trade 1, keeping Houser is probably best. However if both are kept I don't think their is room for him and trying to bring Miley back,. I am putting Gasser ahead of him on the depth chart and if we bring back Miley he fits way down. Burnes, Woody, Peralta, Ashby, Miley, Gasser, Houser, Rea, Junk and I would think Carlos Rodriguez would be ready for a call up relatively quick with Misio maybe by midseason. Also our bullpen seems full so keeping him as a swingman like early this year would be tougher.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

9 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

I guess for me keeping Houser depends on Burnes and Woodruff. If we trade 1, keeping Houser is probably best. However if both are kept I don't think their is room for him and trying to bring Miley back,. I am putting Gasser ahead of him on the depth chart and if we bring back Miley he fits way down. Burnes, Woody, Peralta, Ashby, Miley, Gasser, Houser, Rea, Junk and I would think Carlos Rodriguez would be ready for a call up relatively quick with Misio maybe by midseason. Also our bullpen seems full so keeping him as a swingman like early this year would be tougher.

It's been a little bit, but Houser has proven to be a very good bullpen arm if needed there. Yes, that salary would be expensive for a swing man, but not for a late-inning arm. 

[BrewerFan]

5 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

It's been a little bit, but Houser has proven to be a very good bullpen arm if needed there. Yes, that salary would be expensive for a swing man, but not for a late-inning arm. 

Look at next years bullpen at it sits now with nobody making a big leap and no signings and no additions from the Minor Leagues. Tell me where he slots in as a late inning reliever? He's behind Williams obviously. Payamps and Peguero seem obvious. Uribe and Megill? Absolutely. Unless one of them loses it. You still have Bryse Wilson who seems like a better value if you're going to use him exclusively in the pen.  

Now factor in the Brewers preternatural ability to find relievers from the scrap pile and somehow develop them into good to elite BP arms and...I'm not paying 6-7M to Houser to be a late inning reliever.

A starter or swing man, that's his role. I want the 100MPH or Bugs Bunny type stuff in the late, high leverage situations. Uribe's 101 MPH sinker he threw a week or so ago is the nastiest pitch I've ever seen in my life. And he's behind Williams. 

[jay87shot]

Trade Burnes to Balt for 3B Coby Mayo, OF Billy Cook, and P Trayce Bright

Trade Payamps to Texas for 1B Abimelec Ortiz and P Marc Church

Trade Weimer to LAD for P Gavin Stone

Trade Adames to SF for SS Aeverson Arteaga and P Carson Seymour

Trade Houser to Bos for C Reece McGuire and OF Allen Castro

 Pickup options on Miley and Canha (if we can't sign cheaper)

1)RF Frelick 2)1B Canha 3) DH Yelich 4)C Contreras 5) CF Mitchell 6)3B Mayo 7)2B Black 8)LF Chorio 9) SS Turang.  Bench) C McGuire IF Monteserio OF Taylor Utl Miller/Toro

1) Woodruff 2)Peralta 3)Miley 4)Ashby 5)Stone 6) Gasser Depth)Rea

CP Williams SU Uribe, Megill, Peguero, Milner, Wilson, Viera/Church

Maybe we would wait a month or so to go to Chourio in left but I love the youth and upside of this lineup. Also we would have Wilken or Ortiz as big power 1B to take over in 2025. The rotation would be solid with the upside in Ashby, Gasser, Stone, Rodriguez, Misi, and some of the AA pitchers in these deals. I don't think any of these deals are that big of stretches. The O's will find out in the playoffs they need an ace. Mayo and 2 rising lower ranked prospects is a solid haul. Payamps is expendable so we get a high upside 1B and great potential pen arm. Weimer for Stone works I think, the Dodgers would put Outman in LF and Weimer in CF and Stone is a high upside arm that is likely blocked (Kershaw, Buehler, May, Miller, Pepiot, Sheehan, Urias or big FA/trade?). Adames makes way for Black essentially and get 2 younger pieces. Houser gets a lefthanded backup catcher and prospect. We also would have money to extend Woody and Canha and Miley come back for 1 more year as key cogs and leaders. Black and Monte platoon 2B and if Black struggles defensively he becomes more of a utility guys 1B/2B/3B/OF/DH.

[biedergb]

I may be in the minority, but bring back Burnes, Adames and Woodruff and knowing that they are in contract years, see if you can ride that. You lose them for draft picks, but maybe that will be OK seeing that with a larger bonus pool the team is not afraid to go for talent.

Will need another bat - what about Pete Alonso? What would the price be for him for on last year of control? Must be less than earlier in the season?

[Playing Catch]

Reading people's ideas and mulling things over in my own head, I keep coming back to the same thing... The Brewers are currently in a really good spot with the talent in the organization. They should be able to compete for years to come. I'm not naive to the prospective loss of Burnes/Woodruff, and the impact that would have on being able to win division titles, but there isn't a true re-build in the foreseeable future, either. A re-fitting, perhaps, but they should remain competitive.

[jay87shot]

16 hours ago, biedergb said:

I may be in the minority, but bring back Burnes, Adames and Woodruff and knowing that they are in contract years, see if you can ride that. You lose them for draft picks, but maybe that will be OK seeing that with a larger bonus pool the team is not afraid to go for talent.

Will need another bat - what about Pete Alonso? What would the price be for him for on last year of control? Must be less than earlier in the season?

The problem is that we only get like a 3rd or 4th round pick for losing a FA and not all are given. Burnes and Woody would get at least a solid top 100 plus 2 interesting other pieces. I don't think anyone is really against keeping Burnes or Woody  however it is probably best long-term for a lower salary team like us to get maximum value.

It sounds like the Mets are prioritizing signing Alonso long-term this offseason and they definitely have the money to keep him.

[jay87shot]

Here are a couple random trade ideas

1) We get Dylan Cease, Mets get Burnes, CWS get Luisangel Acuna and Blade Tidwell from mets and Logan Henderson from us.

We turn 1 year of Burnes into 2 of a slightly less valuable pitcher but still a top of he rotation piece. The Mets get a young ace they will sign long term so the year of control to just get Cease doesn't matter and the Sox get a top 50 prospect and 2 young upside arms.

2) Devin Williams to Atl for Vaughn Grissom and a higher ranked P prospect Shawver/Waldrep/Schellenbach

If Grissom can play 2B better than he has (been a butcher defensively in the bigs) he would be a great get who is blocked. Depending on how everything gets valued out we would also add one of the Braves high end pitching prospects. Uribe seems ready to take Williams place and we could turn 2 years (120 innings) into an everyday .300 hitting 2B and a top of the rotation quality arm.

3)Yelich to NYY for DJ Lemahieu and Chase Hampton/Clarke Schmidt/Drew Thorpe   (I think I proposed this at some point)

Lemahieu has 3/45 left on his deal and his versatilty 1B/2B/3B/DH is at positions of weakness. The Yanks would be getting a solid offensive boost and adding athleticism to an aging team and 26 mill a year in the Bronx doesn't look as bad as Milwaukee. We would get out of the Yeli earlier than later and get a solid pitcher in addition to Lemahieu.

4)Willy Adames (and maybe a minor prospect) for Eloy Jimenez

If the Sox turn down Andersons option Adames would make a great option and we could get a solid DH to improve the lineup next year.

5) Willy Adames, Aaron Ashby, Eric Brown, and Jeferson Quero for Sandy Alcantara

Ok, so this might be out there but the Marlins fix 2 of there major holes SS, C (eventually) for turning Alcantara into Ashby. Yes, Alcantara has 4 extremely affordable years but this could make sense with some editing. Then trading Burnes wouldn't hurt as much.

6) We get Bobby Witt the Dodgers get Burnes and Adames the Royals get Quero, Weimer, Pepiot, Hurt, and Busch. (I have proposed something similar before as well.

The Royals have nothing above A+ ball and no help for Witt, the are like 3 years away from starting something. This trade turns a year of Adames and Burnes with 2 valuable (but expendable pieces into a 23 year old superstar that would be a massive piece to a young sustainable lineup. The Dodgers get an ace and short term SS help for 3 solid players that might be a little redundant in LA, The Royals get a Juan Soto like haul with 5 high potential mlb ready (or near mlb ready) pieces that makes the overall team and organization better despite losing a generational talent.

[nate82]

1 hour ago, jay87shot said:

The problem is that we only get like a 3rd or 4th round pick for losing a FA and not all are given.

This is incorrect.  FA compensation depends on a few different things but for the Brewers it would be after the comp A selection if the player signs for more than $50mm.  If less than $50mm it would be after comp B.  

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/qualifying-offer

Burnes and Woodruff should be after comp A and Adames should also but that will depend on how well he plays in ‘24.  In the ‘25 draft the Brewers will have a comp A pick plus one to three FA comp picks.  Also if Chourio wins the NL ROY next year that would possibly be 4 picks in that range in the ‘25 draft.

[nate82]

I firmly believe that the Brewers will have to bring back Burnes, Woodruff and Adames in order to get CC to comeback for one more year.  If they don’t bring them back I don’t see CC coming back.

I am starting to believe the Brewers are going to do this and will just roll the draft pick dice.  It may not be the best strategy but I think this is what the Brewers are going to do.

[SF70]

1 hour ago, nate82 said:

I firmly believe that the Brewers will have to bring back Burnes, Woodruff and Adames in order to get CC to comeback for one more year.  If they don’t bring them back I don’t see CC coming back.

I am starting to believe the Brewers are going to do this and will just roll the draft pick dice.  It may not be the best strategy but I think this is what the Brewers are going to do.

Agree, and considering the skill of Tod Johnson & co’s drafting, $15-$17M in pool $ plus one more year of the big 3, trumps the alternative. 

Next years team with the big 3, bullpen, and Black added to Mitchell-Frelick-Turang with a key trade and FA signing and that’s a 95+ win team.

[biedergb]

Losing Counsell could be a big loss

The thing I get back to is that this team was one game from the WS without elite pitching.

Keeping Peralta and maybe Woodruff possibly could be enough for 2025 on.

There will be potential impact hitters (Frelick, Contreras, Chourio, Black, Wilken) to fill out the roster or as trade chips. 
It was management and coaching that helped will the 2018-2019 teams with less than stellar starting pitching. The bullpen was elite and that’s possible too. 
 

So run the core back 1 more year than they transition from a SP/RP team to more hitting and RP led team. 

[True Blue Brew Crew]

On 8/19/2023 at 8:37 AM, True Blue Brew Crew said:

So let's say the Brewers trade Burnes in the offseason and then are in 2024 playoff contention. Come the July trade deadline, the young bats have blossomed, the young rotation replacements have held their own, and it's said loudly by fans and pundits, that they're just a top end starter away from being a serious WS contender. They consider making a CC Sabathia type move and the price is 2-3 top prospects for a rental. Wouldn't it have just made more sense to hold on to Burnes and not have to trade away a handful prospects on par with the ones who just got when you traded Burnes prior to the season. Since the Brewers still look to be competitive in 2024, there's an argument to be made that keeping him (and Woodruff) and getting draft pick compensation between rounds 1 and 2 in the 2025 draft, is a sensible option.

Nice to have company on this wagon

[BrewerFan]

5 minutes ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

Nice to have company on this wagon

I'm not-not on that bandwagon. I think you try and re-sign Woodruff, you guarantee him 100M+ but nothing near what Burnes will earn and if he bites...then keeping Burnes makes more sense.

I'd also trade all 3, though Adames struggles have made that less appealing.

I'd see what you could get for BOTH Woodruff and Burnes and if the answer is 2-3 top 50-60 pitching prospects and then 2-3 other nice, but younger prospects, I'd do that as I think it keeps our window open much longer. I also think our attention should start to shift to extending Chourio. You don't want to get a year or two into an Acuna like career where he realizes how stupid it is to sign away up to 4 FA years. 

But with the farm system doing as well as it is, I'm really find with whatever they do. You always want to see your team win. Most of us just wanted to see us get some pitching talent back for the best two RHPing prospects we've developed.

[BrewerFan]

16 hours ago, jay87shot said:

Here are a couple random trade ideas

1) We get Dylan Cease, Mets get Burnes, CWS get Luisangel Acuna and Blade Tidwell from mets and Logan Henderson from us.

We turn 1 year of Burnes into 2 of a slightly less valuable pitcher but still a top of he rotation piece. The Mets get a young ace they will sign long term so the year of control to just get Cease doesn't matter and the Sox get a top 50 prospect and 2 young upside arms.

2) Devin Williams to Atl for Vaughn Grissom and a higher ranked P prospect Shawver/Waldrep/Schellenbach

If Grissom can play 2B better than he has (been a butcher defensively in the bigs) he would be a great get who is blocked. Depending on how everything gets valued out we would also add one of the Braves high end pitching prospects. Uribe seems ready to take Williams place and we could turn 2 years (120 innings) into an everyday .300 hitting 2B and a top of the rotation quality arm.

3)Yelich to NYY for DJ Lemahieu and Chase Hampton/Clarke Schmidt/Drew Thorpe   (I think I proposed this at some point)

Lemahieu has 3/45 left on his deal and his versatilty 1B/2B/3B/DH is at positions of weakness. The Yanks would be getting a solid offensive boost and adding athleticism to an aging team and 26 mill a year in the Bronx doesn't look as bad as Milwaukee. We would get out of the Yeli earlier than later and get a solid pitcher in addition to Lemahieu.

4)Willy Adames (and maybe a minor prospect) for Eloy Jimenez

If the Sox turn down Andersons option Adames would make a great option and we could get a solid DH to improve the lineup next year.

5) Willy Adames, Aaron Ashby, Eric Brown, and Jeferson Quero for Sandy Alcantara

Ok, so this might be out there but the Marlins fix 2 of there major holes SS, C (eventually) for turning Alcantara into Ashby. Yes, Alcantara has 4 extremely affordable years but this could make sense with some editing. Then trading Burnes wouldn't hurt as much.

6) We get Bobby Witt the Dodgers get Burnes and Adames the Royals get Quero, Weimer, Pepiot, Hurt, and Busch. (I have proposed something similar before as well.

The Royals have nothing above A+ ball and no help for Witt, the are like 3 years away from starting something. This trade turns a year of Adames and Burnes with 2 valuable (but expendable pieces into a 23 year old superstar that would be a massive piece to a young sustainable lineup. The Dodgers get an ace and short term SS help for 3 solid players that might be a little redundant in LA, The Royals get a Juan Soto like haul with 5 high potential mlb ready (or near mlb ready) pieces that makes the overall team and organization better despite losing a generational talent.

Ok...these three team trades and then getting Bobby Witt Jr and Sandy Alcantra, do you really think teams are going to trade away the most important players in their franchises like that? Cheap, young, Cy Young and MVP potential players?

And the 3 team deals, they're exceptionally rare. The White Sox wanted 3 souls and a top 5 prospect for Cease. I doubt that's changed.

 

If we're going to make all these massive moves, they're almost certainly going to be trading players in their last year for prospects in HiA or maybe AA. And I don't think we're going to add the type of payroll you're suggesting. 

I also know I kinda started the Yelich trade suggestion, but I think we're on the wrong coast. The Yankees have 600M invested i their OF and I feel like Yelich would hear Horace Greely's words..."go west young man." He's a West Coast kid. With him being a 10/5(AND a NTC) you're trying to navigate a trade in which both he and LeMahieu have to agree to make it work. And to agree, they usually want something out of it. 

 

 

I think it's really fundamentally simple.

1-You decide to run it back and go all in on the draft picks and keep trying to develop;

2-You trade the pitchers and maybe Adames and you're cutting payroll or at least not adding a bunch in Jiminez, or others, you'd be putting that back into your own young players in a re-tooling year.

I don't think you'll sell Burnes and then add these expensive players and kinda go half way in on each.  

[SF70]

40 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

I'm not-not on that bandwagon. I think you try and re-sign Woodruff, you guarantee him 100M+ but nothing near what Burnes will earn and if he bites...then keeping Burnes makes more sense.

I'd also trade all 3, though Adames struggles have made that less appealing.

I'd see what you could get for BOTH Woodruff and Burnes and if the answer is 2-3 top 50-60 pitching prospects and then 2-3 other nice, but younger prospects, I'd do that as I think it keeps our window open much longer. I also think our attention should start to shift to extending Chourio. You don't want to get a year or two into an Acuna like career where he realizes how stupid it is to sign away up to 4 FA years. 

But with the farm system doing as well as it is, I'm really find with whatever they do. You always want to see your team win. Most of us just wanted to see us get some pitching talent back for the best two RHPing prospects we've developed.

It’s precisely the current strength of the farm and skill-level of the prospect-procurement systems as to why we don’t need to trade-off any of the big 3. 

The trade-off forces a re-set in ‘24 and a lost WS opportunity. 

Trading-off during the offseason doesn’t bring-back the return it does doing it at the trade-deadline, so that’s another reason I’m holding for the draft-picks and pool-money.

I’ve been advocating for a Burnes trade this offseason, but with the ‘24 future of Aaron Ashby in doubt, I’ve changed my mind. Hoping the ‘23 playoff monies can encourage Attanasio & co to bump-up the ‘24 OD payroll.

 

[Brewcrew82]

With one year left for each of these guys, the trade returns aren't going to be that much better than the comp picks we'll end up getting for them. Is it really worth forgoing what could easily be another 90+ win season and WS opportunity? And after what Johnson and co. have pulled off the last couple of drafts, why wouldn't we want to give them those picks? If the season goes awry for whatever reason, you can always end up trading them at the deadline, too. 

Offseason focus should be on extending Woodruff/Chourio and on getting Mark Canha/Josh Donaldson types to fill out the lineup alongside Yelich/Contreras and our younger players. Rhys Hoskins, anyone?

[jay87shot]

18 hours ago, nate82 said:

This is incorrect.  FA compensation depends on a few different things but for the Brewers it would be after the comp A selection if the player signs for more than $50mm.  If less than $50mm it would be after comp B.  

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/qualifying-offer

Burnes and Woodruff should be after comp A and Adames should also but that will depend on how well he plays in ‘24.  In the ‘25 draft the Brewers will have a comp A pick plus one to three FA comp picks.  Also if Chourio wins the NL ROY next year that would possibly be 4 picks in that range in the ‘25 draft.

My bad, the team that signs the player loses like the 2-5 round pick. 

Well that does make a pretty big difference.