A Way Too Early 2024 MLB Draft Thread

[bigred]

I'd be happy if Chase Burns, Dakota Jordan, and Tyson Neighbors end up.the first 3 picks for the Crew

[nate82]

17 hours ago, bigred said:

I'd be happy if Chase Burns, Dakota Jordan, and Tyson Neighbors end up.the first 3 picks for the Crew

Would have to hope the Brewers could get Burns at 17 and then Jordan in the Comp A round.  I am not sure that would happen.  I am not really a Neighbors fan as I think he is a reliever only.  It is way too early to say how this would go down but right now Jordan is probably a late 1st round pick which means he wouldn't make it to the Brewers at 34. 

I am not sure JD Dix is someone the Brewers would be interested in but he should be available around the 2nd or 3rd round.  He is committed to Wake Forest.  I am not sure how much it would take to get him to sign but I think you will have to go over slot for him to sign.  Dix looks to be an interesting SS hopefully he recovers from his shoulder injury as his arm looked a bit below average at SS coming off that injury.  If he recovers from that shoulder injury then he is an above average SS defensively.  He won't hit a ton of HR's but he should be a good average hitter with some power 10-15 HR. 

At 17 I am going to stick with Cam Caminiti though the Brewers haven't drafted a HS pitcher in the first round in awhile now. 

[nate82]

Right now looking at the board some of the players I want the Brewers to take look to be gone well before they pick and the player I would like to see them draft with the comp A pick will be gone right after they pick or there about. 

At 17 it looks like the Brewers will have their pick of Caminiti (LHP), Culpepper (SS/3B), Tommy White (3B) or Dakota Jordan (OF/1B). 

Jordan still K's a lot currently sitting at about 28% but OMG that bat speed and power.  He needs to work on his pitch recognition though it has improved.  He is still raw at the plate when it comes to pitch recognition.  Jordan has Weeks like bat speed.  He has the arm and speed to play RF though I am not sure he has the instincts to play there though he reminds me of a smaller version of Bo Jackson in the OF. 

The Brewers haven't drafted a HS pitcher in the first round in a long time.  So I would be extremely surprised if they take Caminiti at 17.  He has a strong commit to LSU and would require a team to go over slot to sign him.  He still needs to work on his off speed pitches but his FB is really good with some scouts grading it a 70!

Culpepper is a slick fielding SS who also can hit.  He screams Brewers draft pick at 17.  He is more of a doubles hitter right now but he could find some power.  He has a rather balanced swing which could lead to some more HR power.  He does have a little bit of a stride in his pre swing.  He can play either SS or 3B as he has the arm for both and the athleticism to play at either.  He is a very Brewers type of a player.

Tommy White is an interesting selection at 17 if he is available.  He may rub some people the wrong way though.  Excellent baseball player though and he should stick at 3B and provide enough HR power at 3B along with hitting for a decent average.  He kind of reminds me of a mix between Josh Donaldson and Bryce Harper personality wise. 

 

Tommy White:

 

At 34 I think the Brewers go with Levi Sterling.  Similar to Knoth last year. 

If the Brewers go Culpepper or White at 17 and then Sterling at 34 that would be very comparable to last years draft.  I think it will be Culpepper at 17 and Sterling at 34 but don't be surprised if the Brewers go with a college pitcher like Dallas Baptist at 34. 

[biedergb]

Carson Benge, Cam Smith could be there as well.

Vance Honeycutt is a toolsy player but his hit tool is being questioned from what I have read.

They usually don't take pitchers in classical Round 1, meaning non-competitive balance/non-comp pick (Ethan Small was the last one, and prior to that it was 2014 when they took Kodi Medeiros).

[nate82]

7 hours ago, biedergb said:

Carson Benge, Cam Smith could be there as well.

Vance Honeycutt is a toolsy player but his hit tool is being questioned from what I have read.

They usually don't take pitchers in classical Round 1, meaning non-competitive balance/non-comp pick (Ethan Small was the last one, and prior to that it was 2014 when they took Kodi Medeiros).

Right I would be surprised if the Brewers go pitchers in the first round.  Though at the comp pick or 2nd round pick I expect them to go pitcher if the pitcher they want is there like Sterling or Baptist.  I think they go JUCO in round 2 and I don't think they will have to go cheap in the first two rounds as they have a lot of money to spend so I wouldn't be surprised if it is 2 JUCO or 2 HS pitchers for Comp A and Comp B picks.  First round I think they go college bat so Culpepper, Smith, White or Jordan at 17.  Then another college or HS bat at 57.

Should be an exciting draft for the Brewers this year as they will have a lot of money to play with as they have about $13mm to play with. 

[biedergb]

Benge is interesting if he is there. Two way player?? Has to be some thought of it.

And comp pick or 2nd round - Cijntje - switch handed pitcher?  He was a Brewers pick out of HS but did not sign.  Another interesting consideration.

But I do agree. The team M. O. Is to pick best college bat (or one of the top bats) and spread the bonus money around the top 5-6 picks.

[nate82]

3 hours ago, biedergb said:

Benge is interesting if he is there. Two way player?? Has to be some thought of it.

And comp pick or 2nd round - Cijntje - switch handed pitcher?  He was a Brewers pick out of HS but did not sign.  Another interesting consideration.

I don't think Benge fits into the Brewers model.  Interesting player but not someone the Brewers will target and if they do I think they will convert him to his best position whatever that may be. 

I think Cijntje is another name you could possibly put for that comp A pick.  Though I think we may need to look at JUCO players for the 2nd or Comp B pick.

[Platoon Power]

Slade Caldwell is a guy that sticks out to me.  All things equal, the Brewers would prefer to draft a college bat, but I don't see anyone who can stick up the middle with a plus hit tool who also hits left handed.

[nate82]

17 minutes ago, Platoon Power said:

Slade Caldwell is a guy that sticks out to me.  All things equal, the Brewers would prefer to draft a college bat, but I don't see anyone who can stick up the middle with a plus hit tool who also hits left handed.

You won't find that the majority of the time where the Brewers are picking.  Those players are usually gone by the 10th pick.  If you want a plus hit tool then White is probably the best option at 17.  If the Brewers take another short player I think this board may explode as Caldwell is only 5'8". 

Theo Gillen may be someone the Brewers take in the 2nd round if he is still there.  It will probably take something closer to the comp A pick to get him to sign. 

[BrewerFan]

37 minutes ago, Platoon Power said:

Slade Caldwell is a guy that sticks out to me.  All things equal, the Brewers would prefer to draft a college bat, but I don't see anyone who can stick up the middle with a plus hit tool who also hits left handed.

I'd like to see them take the 17 year old high ceiling arm in Caminiti.

They can go to the College OF well later on. I also love the young OFers we have, both on the team and on the way. Always add more, but true TOR arms, that's what I'd do. I Bigger risk...but bigger reward. 

[SF70]

Adding more power bats like they started to do last year with Wilken-Bitonti is what this farm needs. They will add another JUCO big-armed starter like always they can add to the large stable of starter arms added to the system recently.

This is the most balanced farm, positionally vs pitching I can ever remember, but the only real weakness I see is power bats, especially in the OF.

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, SF70 said:

Adding more power bats like they started to do last year with Wilken-Bitonti is what this farm needs. They will add another JUCO big-armed starter like always they can add to the large stable of starter arms added to the system recently.

This is the most balanced farm, positionally vs pitching I can ever remember, but the only real weakness I see is power bats, especially in the OF.

Honestly I think it's potentially tilted from balanced to pitching heavy especially if Tyler Black graduates this year. Completely agree on the need for more power bats. The system is really devoid off big power guys for the most part especially in comparison to other systems.

AAA - nobody really, also hope we eventually get to a point where AAA is filled with prospects/optioned former prospects. Kind of tired of the AAAA minor league FA filled teams

AA - Wilken, Clarke, Martinez Jr

A+ - Adams (maybe Fernandez?)

A - Pratt and Yophery maybe?

ACL - Bitonti

Definitely would prefer more power bats.

[SF70]

8 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Honestly I think it's potentially tilted from balanced to pitching heavy especially if Tyler Black graduates this year. Completely agree on the need for more power bats. The system is really devoid off big power guys for the most part especially in comparison to other systems.

AAA - nobody really, also hope we eventually get to a point where AAA is filled with prospects/optioned former prospects. Kind of tired of the AAAA minor league FA filled teams

AA - Wilken, Clarke, Martinez Jr

A+ - Adams (maybe Fernandez?)

A - Pratt and Yophery maybe?

ACL - Bitonti

Definitely would prefer more power bats.

You could be right about the tilt towards pitching. 

I’m hopeful the last IFA class adds the power I think it could with 2-3 of the SS’s showing power early and or having projectable bodies that can add power eventually.

I’m also hopeful the FO/PPS’s will continue their quest for power and having the extra draft capital in at least the next 2 drafts, but probably more than that should allow the team to flip the lack of power script in short order just like they flipped the lack of starter arm script.

[biedergb]

The other part of the equation is that it is rare to have a legit hit tool and power. Those prospects with serious grades in both categories are top 15-20 picks usually, or the IFA that the Dodgers/Padres sign.

The org did draft for power and raw tools for a while in the 2010s (think V. Roache, Harrison, Gatewood, Lutz etc). Those players if they do not hit, the power is useless. Whereas a hitter who can get on base still has upside, and maybe can generate more power. So if I were to pick between the two, I would go with guys who can hit, or find a way to get on base, and hope that a few develop power along the way as they develop or grown.

That has been a big shift that last few years I think starting around 2016 - 2020, when that shift seemed to begin (Ray and Hiura were hitters who had power potential, and Mitchell was an excellent athlete). Since 2021 on that seems to be part of the MO - also going with the very Stearns like approach of scout what others aren't scouting (ie JuCo arms; pitchers with elite spin but lack of success; hitters who can hit; guys who are athletic to play defense anywhere), and throw in the occasional wild card (Misioroski in '22; Pratt in '23) who sign for big bucks.

Still I agree, the AA and high A clubs are in the bottom 2 in HR, and bottom 5 in SLG (although Biloxi plays in an 8 team league), Carolina has more power in their league (tops in SLG), but their SLG is bolstered by the league leading triples which speaks to their speed. Which is another tool we have in spades in the system.

So this could be the year to try to draft a power profile or two, so balance the good hitters, elite speed and defense that the system has.

[SF70]

28 minutes ago, biedergb said:

The other part of the equation is that it is rare to have a legit hit tool and power. Those prospects with serious grades in both categories are top 15-20 picks usually, or the IFA that the Dodgers/Padres sign.

The org did draft for power and raw tools for a while in the 2010s (think V. Roache, Harrison, Gatewood, Lutz etc). Those players if they do not hit, the power is useless. Whereas a hitter who can get on base still has upside, and maybe can generate more power. So if I were to pick between the two, I would go with guys who can hit, or find a way to get on base, and hope that a few develop power along the way as they develop or grown.

That has been a big shift that last few years I think starting around 2016 - 2020, when that shift seemed to begin (Ray and Hiura were hitters who had power potential, and Mitchell was an excellent athlete). Since 2021 on that seems to be part of the MO - also going with the very Stearns like approach of scout what others aren't scouting (ie JuCo arms; pitchers with elite spin but lack of success; hitters who can hit; guys who are athletic to play defense anywhere), and throw in the occasional wild card (Misioroski in '22; Pratt in '23) who sign for big bucks.

Still I agree, the AA and high A clubs are in the bottom 2 in HR, and bottom 5 in SLG (although Biloxi plays in an 8 team league), Carolina has more power in their league (tops in SLG), but their SLG is bolstered by the league leading triples which speaks to their speed. Which is another tool we have in spades in the system.

So this could be the year to try to draft a power profile or two, so balance the good hitters, elite speed and defense that the system has.

Yeah, absolutely, especially with a young and controlled big-league team, deep farm system and extra draft capital. Focus on upside HS hitting prospects with the extra pool money.

They don’t need the depth of prospects as much as upside talent. 

This team is in a good spot right now to potentially build the best farm in baseball over the next 2-3 years.

[nate82]

I think you need to stay away from the draft power because you don't have power now.  That could all change at any moment due to a trade or just the development of the prospects.  But if you want power then taking Dakota Jordan or Tommy White in the first round would accomplish that.  Maybe you go with Theo Gillen also for the Comp A pick.  Gillen has some power though it is hard to tell with HS players.  I wouldn't be surprised if he is the Brewers 1st round pick either.  He has similar grades to Turang though with more power and less defensively.  I think Gillen maybe more of an OF long term or maybe a 2B. 

[jay87shot]

I think we go with another power bat 17 that we can save some money. Dakota Jordan and Tommy White make sense. With the comp. I like Ben Hess, 6'5/250, high spin fastball up to 98, big curveball, and 98k's in 61 innings. His era will lower his value and he would be another under slot high potential guy. It would be nice to find a HS prospect like Knoth who would take an underslot deal, bit that might be tough. Then in the 2nd it is JUCO time, I don't know rankings but some of the top Juco arms include Connor Ware, Cade Crossland, Tanner Wiggins, and Colin Linder. By this point we will have saved plenty and can take 2 of the top HS prospects left.

[brewmann04]

 i would really hope  a starter falls to us  at 17

[SF70]

21 hours ago, jay87shot said:

I think we go with another power bat 17 that we can save some money. Dakota Jordan and Tommy White make sense. With the comp. I like Ben Hess, 6'5/250, high spin fastball up to 98, big curveball, and 98k's in 61 innings. His era will lower his value and he would be another under slot high potential guy. It would be nice to find a HS prospect like Knoth who would take an underslot deal, bit that might be tough. Then in the 2nd it is JUCO time, I don't know rankings but some of the top Juco arms include Connor Ware, Cade Crossland, Tanner Wiggins, and Colin Linder. By this point we will have saved plenty and can take 2 of the top HS prospects left.

I like your thinking in regards to how the team probably approaches the ‘24 draft. 
 

They were so successful with that strategy last year so why not try it again. Last years once in a lifetime depth of prospects thanks to Covid might throw a wrench into that strategy. Hope not. 

[nate82]

On 5/19/2024 at 7:01 PM, brewmann04 said:

 i would really hope  a starter falls to us  at 17

Unlikely and the ones that may drop wouldn't be worth drafting.  Think Ethan Small type of a starting pitcher.  Actually this year is probably one of the worst college pitching in awhile at least for anyone in the 1st round.  I fully expect the Brewers to go bat in the 1st round especially where they are picking.  There are far more bats available in this draft than there are starting pitching.