A Way Too Early 2024 MLB Draft Thread

[Joseph Zarr]

It's the off-season and I've been surfing Juco arms. And, today, 2023 Reds 18th Rdr RHP Drew Pestka came back on my radar. He bet on himself going back to Logan to improve his draft stock and it's safe to say he is currently winning that bet:

I could absolutely see the Brewers prioritizing an arm like this in the top 10 rounds of 2024. 
 

Who are some names or players that intrigue you at this juncture?

[jay87shot]

I would be looking for a high end college SS/2B. I know we have a bunch of high upside guys there but they are all in the lower minors. Otherwise I wouldn't be against college 1B, upside HS OF, or always pitching.

I can't say I have read enough or looked at scouting videos to name anybody yet.

[SF70]

Power bats & power arms. Power bat SS specifically needed.

[Spencer Michaelis]

To go along with the "random Juco arm they're bound to take" theme, Scott Rienguette is one I'll be watching. He's a pitcher who would be right up their alley. Very Matt Brash like stuff with the insane spin rates on all his pitches and tons of movement. Brash was more in the low-90's until he got to pro ball where he started pushing mid-upper 90's with regularity (averaged 98.1 MPH on the four seam this season, out of the bullpen). 

 

 

[Joseph Zarr]

4 hours ago, Smichaelis9 said:

To go along with the "random Juco arm they're bound to take" theme, Scott Rienguette is one I'll be watching. He's a pitcher who would be right up their alley. Very Matt Brash like stuff with the insane spin rates on all his pitches and tons of movement. Brash was more in the low-90's until he got to pro ball where he started pushing mid-upper 90's with regularity (averaged 98.1 MPH on the four seam this season, out of the bullpen). 

 

 

Yeah, I've been loosely tracking. Ridiculous Spin numbers here. When your evolving fastball is your third lowest spin pitch at 2734 RPM...that is a very very good sign. When hitters don't know what it is and can't touch it also mucho bueno 😂

 

[Joseph Zarr]

I mean: (I really like his teammate Mannell too - nice deceptive two-seamer)

[nate82]

Is it too early to be thinking about the 2027 draft?  An interesting name to follow is 17-year old Rintaro Sasaki from Japan.  He will be going to College in the US forgoing being drafted in the NPB.

https://theathletic.com/4950222/2023/10/10/rintaro-sasaki-npb-college-baseball/?source=user_shared_article

He has hit 140 home runs in HS in Japan! Official tank for Sasaki????

 

 

[BrewerFan]

On 10/8/2023 at 4:18 PM, Joseph Zarr said:

It's the off-season and I've been surfing Juco arms. And, today, 2023 Reds 18th Rdr RHP Drew Pestka came back on my radar. He bet on himself going back to Logan to improve his draft stock and it's safe to say he is currently winning that bet:

I could absolutely see the Brewers prioritizing an arm like this in the top 10 rounds of 2024. 
 

Who are some names or players that intrigue you at this juncture?

The Reds can still sign him for 250K without it counting against their pool, correct? So if they go over 250K, does that then get added to the previous years pool and then the penalties applied or would that count against their future pool?

I was of the belief that you were just strictly limited to 250K, but I don't know that to be the case. 

[markedman5]

Brewers move up 3 spots in the draft lottery……..now picking 17th.

[biedergb]

1 hour ago, markedman5 said:

Brewers move up 3 spots in the draft lottery……..now picking 17th.

Does that impact the bonus pool?

They will get the bonus pool for a 17th overall pick, and not the original slot (20), correct?

[nate82]

16 minutes ago, biedergb said:

Does that impact the bonus pool?

They will get the bonus pool for a 17th overall pick, and not the original slot (20), correct?

Yes it impacts the bonus pool the Twins last year got a boost when they moved up.

[markedman5]

1 hour ago, biedergb said:

Does that impact the bonus pool?

They will get the bonus pool for a 17th overall pick, and not the original slot (20), correct?

Yes

[CheezWizHed]

On 10/26/2023 at 10:29 PM, BrewerFan said:

The Reds can still sign him for 250K without it counting against their pool, correct? So if they go over 250K, does that then get added to the previous years pool and then the penalties applied or would that count against their future pool?

I was of the belief that you were just strictly limited to 250K, but I don't know that to be the case. 

The signing deadline for draft picks was in July or August.  So they lost all rights to him now. 

[BrewerFan]

5 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

The signing deadline for draft picks was in July or August.  So they lost all rights to him now. 

I posted this last Oct before I knew he was transferring to a non-Juco. 

[CheezWizHed]

On 12/11/2023 at 12:46 PM, BrewerFan said:

I posted this last Oct before I knew he was transferring to a non-Juco. 

The point was that the rules have changed.  Before they could continue to sign people up to the next draft (depending on when and where they played the next college season).  

Now you have a small window of 2 months or so to sign everyone and then it closes.  Doesn't matter if he went to Juco or non-Juco anymore. 

[nate82]

1 minute ago, CheezWizHed said:

Now you have a small window of 2 months or so to sign everyone and then it closes.  Doesn't matter if he went to Juco or non-Juco anymore. 

This isn't 100% true.  If a player was selected after the 10th round and then attends a JUCO college they can be designated as a draft-and-follow.  The player would be able to sign between the end of their JUCO season and before the next draft.  So drafted in 2023 after the 10th round the player doesn't sign and then goes to a JUCO.  The team that drafted that player can try and sign them once the JUCO season finishes and before the 2024 MLB draft.  Any amount over $225,000 counts against the teams available draft pool. 

https://www.mlb.com/news/draft-rule-changes-with-new-cba

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/checking-in-on-the-7-draft-and-follow-prospects-from-the-2022-class/

[CheezWizHed]

27 minutes ago, nate82 said:

This isn't 100% true.  If a player was selected after the 10th round and then attends a JUCO college they can be designated as a draft-and-follow.  The player would be able to sign between the end of their JUCO season and before the next draft.  So drafted in 2023 after the 10th round the player doesn't sign and then goes to a JUCO.  The team that drafted that player can try and sign them once the JUCO season finishes and before the 2024 MLB draft.  Any amount over $225,000 counts against the teams available draft pool. 

https://www.mlb.com/news/draft-rule-changes-with-new-cba

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/checking-in-on-the-7-draft-and-follow-prospects-from-the-2022-class/

That is right.. draft and follow came back.  Hard to keep the rules straight anymore.... 🤦‍♂️

[Playing Catch]

Kind of off-topic, but are we past the point of needing to worry about other teams raiding our scouting department?

[BrewerFan]

On 12/19/2023 at 3:12 PM, CheezWizHed said:

The point was that the rules have changed.  Before they could continue to sign people up to the next draft (depending on when and where they played the next college season).  

Now you have a small window of 2 months or so to sign everyone and then it closes.  Doesn't matter if he went to Juco or non-Juco anymore. 

No, they reinstated the draft and follow rules. If you're picked after the 10th rd and going to a Juco, you can still make an offer...but I don't know how much you can offer. 250K, but I don't know if you go over how that would work. Maybe you can't? 

[BrewerFan]

On 12/19/2023 at 3:24 PM, nate82 said:

This isn't 100% true.  If a player was selected after the 10th round and then attends a JUCO college they can be designated as a draft-and-follow.  The player would be able to sign between the end of their JUCO season and before the next draft.  So drafted in 2023 after the 10th round the player doesn't sign and then goes to a JUCO.  The team that drafted that player can try and sign them once the JUCO season finishes and before the 2024 MLB draft.  Any amount over $225,000 counts against the teams available draft pool. 

https://www.mlb.com/news/draft-rule-changes-with-new-cba

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/checking-in-on-the-7-draft-and-follow-prospects-from-the-2022-class/

Ok...that's what I was wondering about. 

That'd be a good way to use a couple of late picks following talented HS arms that are going to Juco's. I'd imagine most talented Juco arms will end up transferring to 4 year schools. 

[nate82]

1 hour ago, BrewerFan said:

I'd imagine most talented Juco arms will end up transferring to 4 year schools. 

Most would just reenter the draft depending upon how well they played.

Draft range the player would be hoping for would be in the 1-5 range.  The only thing I am not clear on is if the bonus goes towards the year they were drafted or the current draft pool.  If it is the current then you are hoping the player gets a later draft ranking.

[BrewerFan]

24 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Most would just reenter the draft depending upon how well they played.

Draft range the player would be hoping for would be in the 1-5 range.  The only thing I am not clear on is if the bonus goes towards the year they were drafted or the current draft pool.  If it is the current then you are hoping the player gets a later draft ranking.

I'd think it'd be the current years draft pool(meaning the year the player was drafted) and then the time before the draft allows for the potential punishment(if you went over enough to lose the pick). 

But I've tried looking that up as well and can't find it. I do wonder what a guy like Misiorowski would have done if he'd been offered 1.8M. Would he turn that down and roll the dice in the draft? He wasn't someone everyone had on their top 100 boards IIRC. He was a guy people were all over the board on. He got a bigger bonus, but that was after he had more leverage as the 2nd rd pick.

I'm sure it's going to be rare though. 

[nate82]

Mayo has put out his top 100 for the '24 draft about a week ago:

https://www.mlb.com/news/draft-top-100-prospects-list-2024

Around the 17th pick these are who I would target:

For pitchers I am looking at Brody Brecht (RHP), Thatcher Hurd (RHP), Chase Burns (RHP), Josh Hartle (LHP), Cam Caminiti (LHP) or Drew Beam (RHP).  Brecht, Hurd and Burns all have control issues and could just be relievers.  It is possible all three drop to after the 1st round.  Hartle maybe gone before the Brewers pick and Caminiti is a HS pitcher and the Brewers haven't taken a HS pitcher in the 1st round in awhile.  Beam has the highest ceiling of all the pitchers as a mid rotation starter.  Nothing exciting about Beam but he should make it to a starting rotation but his ceiling isn't all that high maybe a #3 starter at best with a floor of a #4/5 starter. 

For bats this is who I am looking at PJ Morlando (OF/1B), Mike Sirota (OF), Caleb Bonemer (3B), Cam Smith (3B), Dakota Jordan (OF) or Braden Montgomery (OF).  I really like PJ Morlando and I think he is more of a 1B than OF but he can definitely play the OF and he has plenty of power though he gets pull happy a lot.  Sirota is basically the same type of hitter the Brewers have been drafting recently.  More hit tools than power.  Someone who may rise up in the rankings and be out of the Brewers draft range would be Cam Smith.  If he performs this year he could be in the 10-15 range.  Caleb Bonemar is another interesting player who could fly up draft boards. 

Dakota Jordan is a very interesting prospect who is very much like Tyrone Taylor.  Probably is a comp A pick or a 2nd round pick than a 1st round pick.  Dakota Jordan is extremely raw and will take some time to develop but OMG his bat speed and his swing remind me of a young Rickie Weeks.  The power potential in his bat is there just need to get him better at handling breaking balls.  He K's a lot with a 25% K rate which is mostly due to him having issues with breaking balls.  If he could get better at recognizing those pitches you have a 40+ HR hitter who can hit those HR's all over the park.  He has HR power to all parts of the field. 

 

[jay87shot]

I like Jordan a lot, adding him alongside Wilken's power would be solid.

As for pitching, Drew Beem would seem like a perfect college arm to move through the system quickly and complement Misi, Gasser, Hall, Ashby, C ROD, Peralta eventually.

I have been enomored with 2 way prospects and think a guy like Carson Benge would be super interesting, a solid across the board OF and an intriguing Fastball/slider combo up to 95/96. He could be an amazing 4th OF and then a bullpen option, on days he doesn't start in the OF you could have an extra bullpen arm.

Looking a little down the list for college players who could be drafted a bit high to save some draft pool money for later picks. I like what I've read about Ethan Anderson (ranked 44) a swittch hitting 1B who might be able to make it as a catcher.  Matt Ager (ranked 52) looks like an interesting starter, at 6'5 he has 4 solid but unspectacular pitches. His command is really good and would seem like a guy our pitching staff could really improve. A little further down Fran Oschell (ranked 77) has a big arm and is 6'7" 230 who get solid extension. He has some potential to start and again with our pitching development team seems like a guy who would take off. Cole Mathis (ranked 92) is another 2 way player, he had a great Cape Cod league which our org loves and could offer starter ability as well as solid 1st potential.

 

 

[nate82]

Sasaki will be attending Stanford.  If 2025 doesn’t work out I say tank in 2026 and go for Sasaki!