2023-24 Wisconsin Basketball season thread

[Brewin]

42 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

To me, it really isn't much different than their football coaching situation. PC simply wasn't that great. Not terrible...but the ceiling wasn't there. Are they okay being average in basketball or do they have aspirations for more potential? Gard could quite possibly be on the same downward trajectory that PC was on.

His recruiting is getting very questionable.

2021 - The only player still there and useful is Hepburn...who took a bit of a step back this year.

2022 - His only player he got is leaving after going from 10+ points a game as a freshman to barely playing. 

2023 - This could be promising with Blackwell and Gard's lone Top 100 recruit in Nolan Winter.

2024 - Only two commits despite a lot of guys leaving/graduating.

He isn't getting many recruits and isn't managing any highly regarded recruits anymore. Eventually the bubble is going to burst. 

Daniel Freitag the 2024 commit from Minnesota is probably the best recruit of the Gard era. As long as Storr stays, there backcourt on paper will be the most athletic and skilled in a long time.

The problem I have with GG is his inability to recruit athletic 4/5's. Their frontcourt is the big problem IMO 

[yourout]

17 minutes ago, Brewin said:

Daniel Freitag the 2024 commit from Minnesota is probably the best recruit of the Gard era. As long as Storr stays, there backcourt on paper will be the most athletic and skilled in a long time.

The problem I have with GG is his inability to recruit athletic 4/5's. Their frontcourt is the big problem IMO 

We probably had the least athletic group of big s in the Big ten this year

[Jim French Stepstool]

4 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

Would it though? What exactly is so special about Gard that would be a risk to lose? There isn't anything about him that seems above-average. 

I think his record has been above average since taking over. There's 361 schools out there playing D-1 ball, you know. There are always risks when you make a change, especially to a relative unknown. Someone mentioned Jr Pitino; there are other examples. If his record was .500-ish the risk-reward would obviously be quite different. 

I don't think there's much if anything "special" about him other than consistency, which is 'special' in its' own right although most people don't look at it that way. It's taken a recent hit with the 3-8 stretch this year, followed by a 5-6 game stretch of maybe the best they've looked all season, followed by a horrible performance in the tournament. That kind of Dow Jones type line is, for this program, very weird. And that's what has led to some of the speculation. But IMO it's a little premature if anyone thinks something is imminent.

My qualifier is that McIntosh has surprised us before. Not exactly the same situation though.

 

[Jim French Stepstool]

14 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

To me, it really isn't much different than their football coaching situation. PC simply wasn't that great. Not terrible...but the ceiling wasn't there. Are they okay being average in basketball or do they have aspirations for more potential? Gard could quite possibly be on the same downward trajectory that PC was on.

 

I don't think they're okay being average in basketball. To their credit they haven't been. 

If the inconsistencies of the last 16 outings continue going forward, You'll see a change. And if that happens, I agree that there IS  similarity to the situation with Chryst. But there are large differences as well, most of which are off-the-field.

Disagree re Hepburn. Other than his 3pt shooting, he was an improved player this year on both ends. He scored less, which happens when you bring in a scorer & your PG shoots less.

[Jim French Stepstool]

2 hours ago, yourout said:

We probably had the least athletic group of big s in the Big ten this year

Throughout his career Tyler Wahl was more than athletic enough (although his offensive resume, when he was scoring, had very little to do with athleticism). This year, yeah, after getting hurt there wasn't much of anything left in the tank. Sad to see, because he made a ton of great defensive plays over the years.

Also agree about the other bigs. But some people have mentioned how Crowl doesn't block a lot of shots. The defense is built on a team concept w/the switching, hedging, not allowing penetration etc. When everyone does their job, Crowl blocking shots doesn't need to happen. Makes you appreciate just how consistent they were defensively over the years when folks were kept out of the lane, unlike this season.

Yeah, most unathletic bigs "award" goes to either us or Northwestern.

[Jim French Stepstool]

13 hours ago, Brewin said:

Daniel Freitag the 2024 commit from Minnesota is probably the best recruit of the Gard era. As long as Storr stays, there backcourt on paper will be the most athletic and skilled in a long time.

The problem I have with GG is his inability to recruit athletic 4/5's. Their frontcourt is the big problem IMO 

Agree on all counts. Their defensive concepts when executed don't really require extreme athleticism or shot blocking from the bigs, but yeah, it's nice to be able to erase mistakes when someone gets beat.

Kai Rogers would fit that bill. They're going after him but so are many others.

EDIT: I think 'big problem' should come with a qualifier. The depth didn't excite many (although I think Winter is on track to have an effective career). But I feel that depth only became an issue when Wahl struggled so mightily. When he plays an effective 32-35 minutes, Gilmore & Ilver were good enough. Near the end, he didn't.

[Samurai Bucky]

3 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Disagree re Hepburn. Other than his 3pt shooting, he was an improved player this year on both ends. He scored less, which happens when you bring in a scorer & your PG shoots less.

I wonder how much the "Fear of Gard" was put in the players.  Did Chuckie not shoot as much earlier in the season because he didn't want to, or because he was told not to. 

When AJ Storr started contributing in a game, then made one or two poor decisions, he was benched.  

However, this worked earlier in the year up until the Nebraska game.  Actually, that was a huge game for Storr -- especially in the first half.  Crowl was exposed, teams picked up on that, and that was the script by which to beat the Badgers.  Chuckie played very well in the B1G tournament because he either took charge or was allowed to score more.  I don't think teams were expecting that.

[LouisEly]

20 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Because as Lucroy said, it's really easy to do "splashy" in this sport and fail mightily.

Just ask Michigan fans how well that last "splashy" hire worked out for them.  Or Indiana (multiple times).  Or Minnesota.

Marquette played Colorado and their coach has been there for 14 years and made the tournament six times.  Oklahoma hasn't made the tournament in the three years since they hired Porter Moser from Loyola.  Since hiring Andy Enfield from Florida Gulf Coast 11 years ago, USC has made the tournament five times.  Those guys were the hot coaches at the time.  I think UW's doing really well.

Additional thoughts:

1) For those who think that Gard should be fired, ask them how many schools consistently make the Sweet 16 AND consistently make New Year's Day bowls in football.  I'll bet that it's a really, really short list.  No school has the resources to be consistently at the top of both.  (Alabama being good at basketball is a recent phenomena... and look at their record after the Avery Johnson hire).

B) Reminder, Paul Chryst wasn't fired for his W-L record.

 

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

I think the Badgers have only been "average" relative to themselves this century. Men's CBB has the most competitive postseason in all of sports. Sure, there are are about 150 programs that aren't good. But you've got to be in the top like 13 percent of the other 200 to make the tourney. You should not throw that away without really thinking about it.

Gard's probably got what? 5-10 years left in him? And I fel like you're going to be expected to make the tournament in most of those years. Let me be clear, I don't think Gard's a great coach. He seems like he's trying to be "new school" while actually being totally not that. It's a little awkward, and he doesn't have Bo's offensive efficiency genius. Still. His teams play hard. They care. They win a lot. Penn State hired a highly regarded coach last year. Rutgers and Northwestern probably have the best coaches they've ever had. I am in no hurry to trade places with either of them. 

Edit: or, my Lord, look at Maryland! If I were a MBB coach, no way I'd bolt the BE for the stress and pressure of a B1G job, save for maybe 1 or 2 historically great ones (and UW is not on that list).

The truth, for me, is just that UW cares a lot about football. There's a clear plan to succeed in men's hoops, and it basically involves caring about it more than football. This is what UCONN does. Kentucky, Duke,  Kansas, and Carolina too. I am all for becoming bad at football to support hoops (and hockey and volleyball and a baseball team), but the university will never make that bargain. You could make the case that it's actually better to just be mediocre at everything than to give up on football, and I get that. It's not how I'd do things, but I understand it. So, given that, yeah. Gard is about the best bet men's basketball can make.

[LouisEly]

Let's also not forget that right now coaches have the least amount of control over their roster that they've every had.  Even if they bring in good players, the players are getting contacted behind the coach's back left and right.  Coaches have to re-recruit their players constantly.  Coaches can't control how much NIL there is for players or how much other schools are offering.  They are meeting constantly with the NIL leaders telling them who is most important to keep, then who is next with what money is left over.  Not only NIL, but right now with that injunction in place players can transfer every year without sitting out. 

Just look at what happened with Noah Reynolds last year.  Committed to UW... then left without a word to go play for his brother who was hired as a coach at UWGB.  The staff found out from a social media post of his.   What the heck was Gard supposed to do about that?

That they've managed to keep the players they have - especially Chucky who has been getting offered left and right - is a testament to how good they are as a staff.

[Playing Catch]

9 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Yeah, most unathletic bigs "award" goes to either us or Northwestern.

I know you were responding to someone else, but there's more to front court play than being athletic. I want them to recruit differently as well, but let's not just throw out all of the positive contributions that players like Crowl and Wahl can make... Point forward?? Not many of those guys out there. Inside AND outside? Not many 7-footers with that skill-set.

I don't disagree that rules changes have effectively neutered positional defense in favor of bouncy, big shot blockers that go over the back on every possession, and can't pass out of a double-team to save their life (just jump and throw it towards the hoop! Then chase down the rebound!). But let's not pretend that Wahl and Crowl didn't provide UW with tremendous benefits. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

6 hours ago, Samurai Bucky said:

I wonder how much the "Fear of Gard" was put in the players.  Did Chuckie not shoot as much earlier in the season because he didn't want to, or because he was told not to. 

When AJ Storr started contributing in a game, then made one or two poor decisions, he was benched.  

However, this worked earlier in the year up until the Nebraska game.  Actually, that was a huge game for Storr -- especially in the first half.  Crowl was exposed, teams picked up on that, and that was the script by which to beat the Badgers.  Chuckie played very well in the B1G tournament because he either took charge or was allowed to score more.  I don't think teams were expecting that.

Don't know about Hepburn & what he was or wasn't told. But I think this was his most complete season. He had more weapons to dole the ball out to than he's ever had. I suspect that influenced his decisions. 

As for Storr, I think one of the big differences between Gard & Ryan was that Gard actually let people play through their mistakes much more. This year, yeah, it seems like he reverted to a quicker hook with Storr. This is probably due to a combination of Blackwell being available, and Storr just not being the best decision maker, defender, or ball handler. He was new to the system & there was probably a lot of 'sit him down, make the correction, then send him back out' going on. IMO it would benefit him SOOO much to return. But flip a coin on that one.

 

[Jim French Stepstool]

3 hours ago, LouisEly said:

Let's also not forget that right now coaches have the least amount of control over their roster that they've every had.  Even if they bring in good players, the players are getting contacted behind the coach's back left and right.  Coaches have to re-recruit their players constantly.  Coaches can't control how much NIL there is for players or how much other schools are offering.  They are meeting constantly with the NIL leaders telling them who is most important to keep, then who is next with what money is left over.  Not only NIL, but right now with that injunction in place players can transfer every year without sitting out. 

Just look at what happened with Noah Reynolds last year.  Committed to UW... then left without a word to go play for his brother who was hired as a coach at UWGB.  The staff found out from a social media post of his.   What the heck was Gard supposed to do about that?

That they've managed to keep the players they have - especially Chucky who has been getting offered left and right - is a testament to how good they are as a staff.

And supposedly Reynolds was asked directly about his thoughts after his brother went to GB, and gave no indication that it was a factor. Then as you said, does the equivalent of pulling the rug out from someone you gave your word to, w/o having the integrity to face them with the news. And oh yeah, he just announced he's entering the portal, again. I'll say this for the current framework--it sure is building character.

[Jim French Stepstool]

5 hours ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

 Let me be clear, I don't think Gard's a great coach. He seems like he's trying to be "new school" while actually being totally not that. 

If you told me 10 years ago college hoops would be seeing players getting paid--some really, really well---and they'd be able to leave year to year w/o having to sit out, and then you told me Greg Gard would be piloting us through that, I'd be concerned at a colossal level. IMO he's dealing with all this crap impressively, all things considered.

[Jim French Stepstool]

1 hour ago, Playing Catch said:

I know you were responding to someone else, but there's more to front court play than being athletic. I want them to recruit differently as well, but let's not just throw out all of the positive contributions that players like Crowl and Wahl can make... Point forward?? Not many of those guys out there. Inside AND outside? Not many 7-footers with that skill-set.

I don't disagree that rules changes have effectively neutered positional defense in favor of bouncy, big shot blockers that go over the back on every possession, and can't pass out of a double-team to save their life (just jump and throw it towards the hoop! Then chase down the rebound!). But let's not pretend that Wahl and Crowl didn't provide UW with tremendous benefits. 

You're right, and I amended one of my responses above. I'd love to add to the frontcourt athleticism but not at the cost of skill level. and Wahl (when healthy) certainly was skilled.

I wonder how many schools would salivate over a 7-footer in the portal that averages a little over 11 a game, shoots over 55% from the floor & almost 45% from the arc, makes his FTs & grabs between 7 to 7.5 boards? That's Crowl.

[MrTPlush]

18 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

I don't think they're okay being average in basketball. To their credit they haven't been. 

I guess everyone has a different definition of average, but Wisconsin has been performing at a pretty casual level you expect out of most teams in the P5. 4/7 years they have made the dance, no higher than a 5 seed, can't make the Sweet 16, and have been ranked 14+ on three occasions in that span to end the year. I believe they have two Big Ten titles in that span, but both were shared...one of which was a 3-way tie.

I mean, if you want to call that slightly above average, sure, I guess. It is certainly a sharp decline from what they had seen prior to Gard taking over. I guess it is a matter of what you think Wisconsin's ceiling can be in the NIL era. 

[LouisEly]

45 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

4/7 years they have made the dance

That's because there was no tournament in 2020, when they were regular season B1G champs and absolutely would have made the tournament and been at least a top 5 seed as they were ranked #17 at the end of the season.

So that makes 5 of the last 7 and 7 of 9.  Still much better than "average" for a P5 school, which is not making it more often than they do.

[Jim French Stepstool]

4 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

I guess everyone has a different definition of average, but Wisconsin has been performing at a pretty casual level you expect out of most teams in the P5. 4/7 years they have made the dance, no higher than a 5 seed, can't make the Sweet 16, and have been ranked 14+ on three occasions in that span to end the year. I believe they have two Big Ten titles in that span, but both were shared...one of which was a 3-way tie.

I mean, if you want to call that slightly above average, sure, I guess. It is certainly a sharp decline from what they had seen prior to Gard taking over. I guess it is a matter of what you think Wisconsin's ceiling can be in the NIL era. 

You're right, everyone does have different definitions, which is fine. There are plenty of schools that, while they may not want to settle for a 5 seed being a high-water mark (and I'm sure they don't), at the same time won't be hanging crepe because they were seeded among the top 20 schools in a given year, rather than the top 16. 

In the Big Ten, sign me up for a title any/every year, shared or not.

Yes, what they're experiencing right now is a sharp decline from back-to-back final fours.

The ceiling in this era? Good question that's yet to be answered. I believe a lot of schools are feeling that out. Personally I feel the current transfer rules, where 'commitment' seems to be an obsolete term, are just as big a factor.

[Playing Catch]

I have no idea if this link will work properly, but I'll give it a shot...

In the roughly 300 games since the end of 2015, Wisconsin ranks #20 in T-Rank. Fourth in the B1G. Call that average if you wish.

I think the goal and ambition of any program in that position is to try and keep climbing to the top. For some, they view Gard as maxxing out his potential as a coach. In my opinion, I don't think there is any doubt that Gard is a student of the new landscape in college hoops, and has moved toward those changes. He is not as staid as his reputation suggests. Allowing players like Johnny Davis and A.J. Storr to do what they do, and in general, loosening up the offense (an uncharacteristic offensive team in terms of efficiency this season), or navigating the portal/NIL does not demonstrate a Paul Chryst-like refusal to acknowledge the changes in his sport. Being able to recover from the locker-room leak, or the Moore tragedy, and continue to sustain their level off success simply doesn't provide me with doubt over the leadership of Greg Gard, but rather confirms my belief in it.

The question people need to ask themselves is, "Which coach is best positioned to lead this program back to great heights?" For me, the answer remains Greg Gard.

[Jimbo]

Badger women with a nice second-half comeback to advance.  When I hear Southern Indiana, thoughts of Bruce Pearl coming into Madison are still in my head.

 

[stoutdude04]

Storr declares for the draft - bummer, but not surprising.

[Brewin]

1 hour ago, stoutdude04 said:

Storr declares for the draft - bummer, but not surprising.

I'm a little surprised as I don't believe he's projected to be a R1 selection. Maybe he chasing more NIL money than Bucky's willing to pay....

[wallus]

1 hour ago, stoutdude04 said:

Storr declares for the draft - bummer, but not surprising.

Bad decision, he isn't ready.

[LouisEly]

34 minutes ago, wallus said:

Bad decision, he isn't ready.

At this point he is not hiring an agent so he can maintain his eligibility while getting feedback from the league.

Not a bad decision.

[Jim French Stepstool]

1 hour ago, LouisEly said:

At this point he is not hiring an agent so he can maintain his eligibility while getting feedback from the league.

Not a bad decision.

My wife just called me with the news as I was out & about. Told me he also mentioned that if he returns to college hoops it'll be with UW. For a guy who's moved around as much as he has, even in HS, that's a pretty positive indictment toward the current staff. In the old days of declare & then either make a roster or die on the vine this would be a bad decision. Glad to hear he isn't hiring an agent.

So you still can't hire an agent as a collegian. That's refreshing. Seems like they can do anything these days short of betting on their games.