Direction of the franchise?

[rickh150]

5 hours ago, Royhobbs said:

Burnes has to be moved this offseason.  A full year of Burnes to a big market team who could afford to resign him has to be worth 2 top 100 prospects and maybe a lottery ticket on top of it.  Sign Willy in arby and maybe even extend him.  He would be cheaper to extend after a down year last year and think that he has a load of talent.  Would love to see what a top end hitting instructor would do with him.  He is the kind of guy that will leave then OPS .900 the next year with a different team.

Unloading Burnes is not a tear down.  Their lineup should be better next year simply by the maturing of their young talent.  Let Frelick bat in his natural position as a leadoff hitter.  A full year of Garret Mitchell. Any contribution from Churio and Black will top what they got out of the 3rd base position and 4th outfield position.  Sprinkle in a couple of vets (Santana, maybe Candelario - who they can absolutely afford) and this lineup should be significantly better than last year.

Between Freddy and Ashby and Houser, one of the rooks and a FA agent signing - bring Miley back, their rotation won't be much worse than last year.  We have to remember how much time Woody and Miley missed.

No Burnes is a huge blow…..he still was really good for a down year. He ate innings.

[Matt Breen]

For all the consideration of a soft rebuild, the front office could double down on the existing roster and go for another division title. You could resign Santana for $6-8m for one year. Add a backup catcher or use Payton Henry, and add a free agent starter - someone on a 1-2 year deal. Miley would be great to have back. Give jobs to Black at 3B, Gasser in the rotation. Anything we get from Ashby is a plus - but I wouldn't count on him.

Cut loose Rowdy. Woodruff - if he comes back, would be a lower salary in 2024 as he rehabs. 

You count on several of your young players to step up and improve. 

C - Contreras, Henry or FA backup
1B - Santana
2B - Turang
SS - Adamas
3B - Black
IF - Miller, Monestorio
OF - Yelich, Mitchell, Wiemer, Frelick, Taylor
SP - Burnes, Peralta, Houser, Rea, Gasser, FA
RP - Williams, Wilson, Payamps, Milner, Peguera, Megill, Uribe
DH - Rotating between players - especially the outfielders

You can make some tweaks to the roster, but I don't think it changes things too much.

Salaries probably total around $90m before any signings (very rough math on my part). Add in a FA starter and Santana at 1B - should be able to keep things around $110m. 

That's not a bad team. You're counting on some improvement from your younger hitters - and a couple of rookies in key roles. But it's interesting. 

If the club does poorly, the selloff could happen at the trade deadline. Won't get as much as you get now in a deal, but that's a risk you take for trying and being a playoff caliber team. 

I'm not arguing to do this - but just saying the 'direction' we take may be to stay the course and trot back most of our same cast.

[Sixtolezcano]

On 11/9/2023 at 1:47 PM, Fear The Chorizo said:

A team that wins their division with a bottom 10 offense probably shouldn't look to tear it all down and start from scratch - significant deck chair reshuffling should definitely be on the table, though.  They got very little from Woodruff in 2023 on the mound and still wound up being the best team in the NL Central by a comfortable margin.

I think Burnes gets dealt this offseason only if the Brewers get a crazy offer, otherwise they've got the payroll flexibility to pay him whatever arbitration dictates and see how things unfold through June .  If they are out of it, they'll trade Burnes and potentially Williams for a haul at the deadline - otherwise if they're on top of the division again they'll add pieces and hope to get hot at the right time.  If anyone offers something of longterm value for Adames, I think he's gone this offseason, too.

One thing I hope the Brewers do change is shifting the roster building emphasis away from run prevention/defensive versatility at least a bit in hopes of building a better offensive position player roster.  This team can make a bunch of changes internally by giving more prospects who have earned their MLB turn a shot - Black, Chourio, Gasser, Quero - and lean on additional production from guys like Mitchell, Turang, Frelick with continued development/health.  I think keeping Wiemer in Milwaukee all season long without burning an option last season sets up pretty well for them to start him off in AAA next season and keep him there until he figures some things out with his swing in 2024 - or he's part of a trade package this offseason.

Looking at the rest of the NL Central - yeah the Brewers are still in the best position to win this division next year on paper at this moment - particularly with the impact talent they could add to their 40 man roster internally in terms of prospects that will be knocking on the MLB door next spring to supplement what is still a pretty talented MLB roster.  I fully expect the Cubs to go nuts this offseason trying to fill holes via free agency, and I can see the Cardinals making some significant pitching staff moves to quickly pull themselves out of the cellar, too.  The Reds, with healthy pitching, are going to be a problem next year - and I think they have the highest ceiling without making any moves to add to what they already have on their 40 man.

I believe there will be many disappointed fans who are expecting to get a haul for Burnes, Williams, Adames, etc. Very recent trades for highly thought of veterans haven’t brought in highly ranked prospects that were originally anticipated. I would be very surprised if we would receive a team’s top 10 prospect for any of these players. Most GMs have recently been unwilling to trade this type of ranked prospect for a year (or less for a deadline acquisition) of a FA all-star.

[CheeseheadInQC]

38 minutes ago, Sixtolezcano said:

I believe there will be many disappointed fans who are expecting to get a haul for Burnes, Williams, Adames, etc. Very recent trades for highly thought of veterans haven’t brought in highly ranked prospects that were originally anticipated. I would be very surprised if we would receive a team’s top 10 prospect for any of these players. Most GMs have recently been unwilling to trade this type of ranked prospect for a year (or less than a deadline acquisition) of an all-star.

Then you take the year and the pick. It would be basically the equivalent of Knoth draft position wise if I remember correctly, and I’ve got him 8th in a pretty good Brewers system. Anything less and you are taking a loss, especially since the other team would be in line for a pick if they don’t re-sign him.

[Fear The Chorizo]

10 hours ago, Sixtolezcano said:

I believe there will be many disappointed fans who are expecting to get a haul for Burnes, Williams, Adames, etc. Very recent trades for highly thought of veterans haven’t brought in highly ranked prospects that were originally anticipated. I would be very surprised if we would receive a team’s top 10 prospect for any of these players. Most GMs have recently been unwilling to trade this type of ranked prospect for a year (or less for a deadline acquisition) of a FA all-star.

What are some examples of these disappointing recent trades you speak of? Just curious what you consider less than adequate prospect return for players in the same caliber as who the Brewers may be shopping this offaeason....

Burnes is one of the 15 best starting pitchers in baseball and in his prime years, Williams is probably a top 5 reliever, in his prime and still has a couple years of arbitration control.  They will return premium value via trade when they are dealt.  Adames is a few steps below them in terms of trade value IMO, and because of that the Brewers may opt to just roll with him at SS in hopes he can have a really good FA year and try to trade him in July or contend with this group one more season if they're winning this summer.

[MrTPlush]

Wait...not even a teams Top 10 player...? That is just, a terrible take. Josh Hader is a perfect comp for Devin Williams and he managed to get us two top 10 prospects. Burnes is undeniably just as valuable trade value wise. As much as Adames is overrated by Brewers fans even he, I think, is worth a pretty decent prospect in a teams Top 10.

Now are we going to get a boatload of Top 100 prospects and blue chippers in the Top 30? Well, there you would have an argument. We probably aren't flipping them all for guys in AAA that are ready to make a big impact and are can't-miss. You probably hope for a few to become something, and they probably don't do it overnight. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

14 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Wait...not even a teams Top 10 player...? That is just, a terrible take. Josh Hader is a perfect comp for Devin Williams and he managed to get us two top 10 prospects. Burnes is undeniably just as valuable trade value wise. As much as Adames is overrated by Brewers fans even he, I think, is worth a pretty decent prospect in a teams Top 10.

Now are we going to get a boatload of Top 100 prospects and blue chippers in the Top 30? Well, there you would have an argument. We probably aren't flipping them all for guys in AAA that are ready to make a big impact and are can't-miss. You probably hope for a few to become something, and they probably don't do it overnight. 

Agreed, and the best way to get impact prospect talent in these type of trades is to go after guys who aren't already knocking on the mlb door - find upside talent in the lower minor league levels or guys recently drafted that your scouts view highly.  Then be patient for a season or two before you see the full dividends of a trade.

Top 30 guys rarely get moved unless you're getting a guy like Soto for up to parts of 3 seasons.

 

Burnes, Adames, ot Williams were never top 30 prospects - you can land impact talent that isn't hyped at the time of a trade, and oftentimes wind up with better players than focusing on getting who fluctuating ranking services say are top 30 prospects in a vacuum

[Axman59]

21 hours ago, Royhobbs said:

Burnes has to be moved this offseason.  A full year of Burnes to a big market team who could afford to resign him has to be worth 2 top 100 prospects and maybe a lottery ticket on top of it. 

 

The Dodgers would be a good fit. They need high end SP and they have the prospects to deal. And they have the resources to extend Burnes.

[Sixtolezcano]

13 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

What are some examples of these disappointing recent trades you speak of? Just curious what you consider less than adequate prospect return for players in the same caliber as who the Brewers may be shopping this offaeason....

Burnes is one of the 15 best starting pitchers in baseball and in his prime years, Williams is probably a top 5 reliever, in his prime and still has a couple years of arbitration control.  They will return premium value via trade when they are dealt.  Adames is a few steps below them in terms of trade value IMO, and because of that the Brewers may opt to just roll with him at SS in hopes he can have a really good FA year and try to trade him in July or contend with this group one more season if they're winning this summer.

What kind of return do you believe we will for either Burnes or Williams? Top 50, top 20, top 10?

[rickh150]

9 hours ago, Sixtolezcano said:

What kind of return do you believe we will for either Burnes or Williams? Top 50, top 20, top 10?

Two top 100…. For each Burnes and Williams. I don’t see that level of value for Adames.  Williams has two years left to Burnes one, which gives a top RP some more value.  I expect both to be dealt, especially Burnes.

If both are traded, we should have the top minor league system in baseball.  This should at least give Brewers fans hope in 2025 and moving ahead and somewhat past the CC saga and Attanasio’s hijack of the stadium upgrades.  The lack of Brewers PR with no Brewers On Deck and  limited Arctic Tailgate (so limited access to players the last few years) still gives fans the feel that it is a complete bother for our team to greet its fans, though. Compared to years 2007-2011, it is night and day.
 

 

[Fear The Chorizo]

10 hours ago, Sixtolezcano said:

What kind of return do you believe we will for either Burnes or Williams? Top 50, top 20, top 10?

To be honest I don't really care what a prospect's ranking number is the moment he's traded.  Hiura was at one point a top 15, Brinson was a top 20, Arcia was a top 10...in a trade of Burnes I'd rather get three prospects outside of the top 100 that turn into quality MLB players than three prospects ranked in the top 20 who go on to have the MLB careers Hiura, Brinson, and Arcia have had thus far.

I'm still waiting on your disappointing trade examples, btw.

[Thurston Fluff]

Trading Burnes doesn't have to be for all prospects. If for example we could get a league average first baseman plus a lower level high ceiling prospect or two would be beneficial as well. We'd get the immediate help we need at a position of need plus a boost for the future all at once.

[TURBO]

54 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

Trading Burnes doesn't have to be for all prospects. If for example we could get a league average first baseman plus a lower level high ceiling prospect or two would be beneficial as well. We'd get the immediate help we need at a position of need plus a boost for the future all at once.

What a disappointment it would be to get a league average 1B in a deal for Burnes.

Are we so used to having crap at 1B that a league average guy is good enough?

I'd rather just sign Santana for $6 million, or whatever, than get back an average player for Burnes.

[rickh150]

Low times for Brewers here in Nov. 2023..

Craig to Cubs….a sad low.

A tear down seems imminent…

Attanasio gun to Bernie Brewers head for stadium deal or threat to leave Milwaukee.

And that stadium deal, however you feel about it, is still contentious without the needed votes. Turmoil over the next months would cause MA to reload the gun.

Brewers PR at a low with little fan interaction with players…token stuff here or there. Even groups like World Series Club not getting speakers..

No apparent vision for TV deal with Balley going bankrupt…

Many look at team as nickel and diming players and fans…fair or not, I don’t know, The perception is there.

So kind of awful

[BrewerFan]

On 11/10/2023 at 2:29 AM, MrTPlush said:

Is Peralta really a part of the future? If you are punting 2024, that is 33% of his remaining control. If you are really optimistic 2025 is maybe .500ish…that is 66% of his control. So you are holding onto him for 2 years to hope you can ride him to FA trying to compete in 2026? Brewers should sell high on him, but I doubt they do because then this off-season will look like a total fire sale. Peralta and Contreras are probably safe for that reason barring a trade offer out of this world.

Im not sure Woodruff cares about a teams ability to compete. He just wants to get back and showcase for a FA contract. 

A lot of people expect Adames to get traded, I’m not so sure. Seems like a guy to keep around unless someone overvalues him. If no one does, pray he puts together a huge first half to be the crown jewel of the trade deadline. If not we can probably still get a draft pick for him.

Yes. He had THREE years of team control. That's the future. 

You're doing your own math to argue otherwise, but no, if you are "really optimistic," you're better than "maybe .500 ish," in 2025.

You created this strawman based on your estimation of our chances and then came up with this supposition that we're holding Peralta for 2 years(which we apparently can't compete during) in the hopes you can "ride him to FA trying to compete in 2026?

We'll be trying to compete in '24 and '25. It's an incredibly bad faith argument to frame it in your own lens and then argue vs that particular lens. 

[BrewerFan]

On 11/10/2023 at 10:44 PM, Sixtolezcano said:

I believe there will be many disappointed fans who are expecting to get a haul for Burnes, Williams, Adames, etc. Very recent trades for highly thought of veterans haven’t brought in highly ranked prospects that were originally anticipated. I would be very surprised if we would receive a team’s top 10 prospect for any of these players. Most GMs have recently been unwilling to trade this type of ranked prospect for a year (or less for a deadline acquisition) of a FA all-star.

🤣😅😂

Michael Lorenzen went for the 5th and 20th prospect in the Phillies' very solid farm system, but Corbin Burnes won't go for a team's own top 10 prospects!!!

On 11/11/2023 at 9:36 AM, MrTPlush said:

Wait...not even a teams Top 10 player...? That is just, a terrible take. Josh Hader is a perfect comp for Devin Williams and he managed to get us two top 10 prospects. Burnes is undeniably just as valuable trade value wise. As much as Adames is overrated by Brewers fans even he, I think, is worth a pretty decent prospect in a teams Top 10.

Now are we going to get a boatload of Top 100 prospects and blue chippers in the Top 30? Well, there you would have an argument. We probably aren't flipping them all for guys in AAA that are ready to make a big impact and are can't-miss. You probably hope for a few to become something, and they probably don't do it overnight. 

Right. I don't like speaking in absolutes...but I am absolutely positive than barring some industrial accident in which Burnes right arm gets injured over the next couple months, juuust about every team(if not literally every team) is going to offer multiple of their own top 10 prospects for Burnes.

We just saw a trade deadline in which fringe starters were traded for players ranked in the top 10 of good farm systems.

I'd like to see the disappointing returns, but I don't think they'll actually come.

On 11/11/2023 at 9:56 AM, Fear The Chorizo said:

Agreed, and the best way to get impact prospect talent in these type of trades is to go after guys who aren't already knocking on the mlb door - find upside talent in the lower minor league levels or guys recently drafted that your scouts view highly.  Then be patient for a season or two before you see the full dividends of a trade.

HiA is kinda the sweet spot for starting pitching. AA and they're a call away. 

Brock Porter type arms. The Rangers and Phills were two teams I thought would be the best fits. Teams that had spent big recently...had come close, but failed to get over the top.

The Rangers are not in that group any longer, and they should hope to have deGrom back, so maybe they're not as interested(or maybe repeating makes them just as interested, who can say).

But both teams have pitchers who are are a year or two away, who have top-of-the-rotation stuff.

 

The Dodgers make a lot of sense, but they self-scout so well and they don't ever seem to panic, so I don't know if that's the best possible deal.

 

[MrTPlush]

8 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

Yes. He had THREE years of team control. That's the future. 

You're doing your own math to argue otherwise, but no, if you are "really optimistic," you're better than "maybe .500 ish," in 2025.

You created this strawman based on your estimation of our chances and then came up with this supposition that we're holding Peralta for 2 years(which we apparently can't compete during) in the hopes you can "ride him to FA trying to compete in 2026?

We'll be trying to compete in '24 and '25. It's an incredibly bad faith argument to frame it in your own lens and then argue vs that particular lens. 

Do you know what a strawman argument is? I didn't distort Reilly's view at all. His last sentence is that he expects '24 to be a rough year...so he doesn't expect us to be competing. Which is a pretty understandable outlook if we trade Williams/Burnes/Adames like his post assumed. He didn't really elaborate his expectations past that...so hard to distort that. 

I am sure the team will go out there and try to win games in '24...but I don't think that means we wouldn't lose potentially 90+ in that scenario. Even the loss of Woodruff is getting a bit underrated. He was injured a lot last year, but he still pitched 33% of his starts, went 5-1, and had 2.4 WAR. That is going to get replaced with someone much worse.

Could they pull of a 2017 type of turnaround in 2025? Potentially, going to be done a little different though. That team hit on a lot of MLB players (Shaw/Pina/Anderson) to help turn that around. This one is likely going to end up dependent on prospects heavily. Likely much more than the 2017 team did. The downside, you would burn half of Peralta's control at minimum to find out how that 2025 team shapes up. 

[SF70]

31 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Do you know what a strawman argument is? I didn't distort Reilly's view at all. His last sentence is that he expects '24 to be a rough year...so he doesn't expect us to be competing. Which is a pretty understandable outlook if we trade Williams/Burnes/Adames like his post assumed. He didn't really elaborate his expectations past that...so hard to distort that. 

I am sure the team will go out there and try to win games in '24...but I don't think that means we wouldn't lose potentially 90+ in that scenario. Even the loss of Woodruff is getting a bit underrated. He was injured a lot last year, but he still pitched 33% of his starts, went 5-1, and had 2.4 WAR. That is going to get replaced with someone much worse.

Could they pull of a 2017 type of turnaround in 2025? Potentially, going to be done a little different though. That team hit on a lot of MLB players (Shaw/Pina/Anderson) to help turn that around. This one is likely going to end up dependent on prospects heavily. Likely much more than the 2017 team did. The downside, you would burn half of Peralta's control at minimum to find out how that 2025 team shapes up. 

No reason why this team’s prospects can’t breakout like the Reds prospects did last season. We have Chourio, who’s currently destroying winter league pitching poised to make the OD roster with superstar potential.

Tyler Black, who’s probably our second best hitting prospect, also set to enter the lineup early next year. If 1 of Mitchell/Frelick breaks out in the box this team suddenly has an offense to go with their elite defense. 

Even without Williams, the bullpen will be strong and if they end up trading Burnes, it will be because they got blown-away with a return, including a player that helps the team next year, in all likelihood.

I see a contending team next year even if they end up trading Burnes/Williams.

[MrTPlush]

4 hours ago, SF70 said:

No reason why this team’s prospects can’t breakout like the Reds prospects did last season. We have Chourio, who’s currently destroying winter league pitching poised to make the OD roster with superstar potential.

Tyler Black, who’s probably our second best hitting prospect, also set to enter the lineup early next year. If 1 of Mitchell/Frelick breaks out in the box this team suddenly has an offense to go with their elite defense. 

Even without Williams, the bullpen will be strong and if they end up trading Burnes, it will be because they got blown-away with a return, including a player that helps the team next year, in all likelihood.

I see a contending team next year even if they end up trading Burnes/Williams.

The division is weak, so yah, it isn't impossible to compete next year. Maybe the Cubs try to spend a bunch and have the best team on paper by a mile...but that doesn't assure them anything. Not saying they can't, but banking on the postseason being a decent scenario...is a pretty generous and optimistic outlook. I don't think assuming that wouldn't happen is some kind of terrible opinion on my part. I think 75%+ of Brewers fans would say we have little to no shot. 

I am optimistic we can have an offense that isn't completely embarrassing, but that rotation needs some serious TLC. Losing Woodruff, Burnes, and even Miley is quite crippling. 

 

[Thurston Fluff]

23 hours ago, TURBO said:

What a disappointment it would be to get a league average 1B in a deal for Burnes.

Are we so used to having crap at 1B that a league average guy is good enough?

I'd rather just sign Santana for $6 million, or whatever, than get back an average player for Burnes.

I was using that as an example of how we can use a Burnes trade to shore up our current roster while adding to our future. Burnes getting us an elite first baseman plus a couple of elite prospects is not gonna happen. What can happen is we get a serviceable player at a position of need plus a high ceiling prospect or two. If we could manage to shore up a weak spot without using all the trade value Burnes has while doing so I'd consider it a good trade. My main point is it isn't a bad thing to add a veteran to the mix.

[Underachiever]

1 hour ago, SF70 said:

No reason why this team’s prospects can’t breakout like the Reds prospects did last season. We have Chourio, who’s currently destroying winter league pitching poised to make the OD roster with superstar potential.

Tyler Black, who’s probably our second best hitting prospect, also set to enter the lineup early next year. If 1 of Mitchell/Frelick breaks out in the box this team suddenly has an offense to go with their elite defense. 

Even without Williams, the bullpen will be strong and if they end up trading Burnes, it will be because they got blown-away with a return, including a player that helps the team next year, in all likelihood.

I see a contending team next year even if they end up trading Burnes/Williams.

Why can't the Brewers have next year's Corbin Carroll? or Steven Kwan? A 5-WAR rookie can happen, and that would go a long way to helping this team compete.

And I agree with the earlier comment that it's sad that our production at 1B has been so bad that we dream of an average guy there. Maybe Greg Brock is still available. Dude had 5.1 WAR in five seasons with Milwaukee. Imagine!!!!