What do you think Matt Arnold’s plans are after signing Chourio?

[titletownking]

What do you believe would be his ideal offseason plan? 

[brewmann04]

Going to sign and older Fa to a short deal. And going to move Willy or Corbin or Both 

[Scooterfletcher]

Sign Giolito and Garver.  Trade Burnes and Adames

[SF70]

Trade Burnes-Adames only with the right return. It would need to include big-league talent that helps contention in ‘24.

Better odds of trading Williams & TT, because of depth at those positions they don’t necessarily need big-league talent returned and could go with mostly big-league ready talent.

Next season will be a developmental season in which they still contend for a central title. Chourio-Black will be added to the rookies giving the team a tremendous young core of positionals from which to add to next year with farm additions Wilken and possible trade additions.

On the pitching front, the bullpen even without Williams will be strong, even if they don’t any add big-league relievers, but they will add more arms to be stashed in the upper minors thru trades or ML signings.

The starting pitching if Burnes isn’t traded will be strong enough to win games with a better offensive and monstrous bullpen. 

[nate82]

I think Adames won’t be traded now with the Chourio signing.  I believe the idea here from Arnold is to have a mentor at the MLB level and there is no one better than Adames on the Brewers right now.

I believe Arnold would have to be absolutely blown away by a trade offer to trade Adames.

Burnes on the other hand will be traded.  Once Cease gets traded the Burnes trade rumors will really heat up.  I hope the Orioles get Cease and that then makes the Dodgers and Braves desperate to make a trade for Burnes.

[sveumrules]

We'll ultimately see where Arnold & associates draw the line on Burnes valuation, but for me I would need one of the following as a headliner to be convinced, with current MLB Top 100 ranking...

Kyle Harrison (SFG | #20), Colt Keith (DET | #25), Coby Mayo (BAL | #27), Andrew Painter (PHI | #28), Cade Horton (CHC | #29), Ricky Tiedemann (TOR | #31), Curtis Mead (TBR | #34), Tink Hence (STL | #42) or Mick Abel (PHI | #45).

If the second piece is super intriguing I could maybe be talked into a headliner like...

AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL | #53), Dylan Lesko (SDP | #63), Carson Whisenhut (SFG | #70), Gavin Stone (LAD | #79), Ben Brown (CHC | #86) or Emmet Sheehan (LAD | Graduated)

So essentially one of the top dozen or so non-Paul Skenes pitching prospects or one of the top few positionally challenged power bats.

About 40% of the guys listed above play for teams (DET, CHC, TBR, STL, SDP) that are probably fringe contenders to even deal for Burnes in the first place too.

[nate82]

30 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

We'll ultimately see where Arnold & associates draw the line on Burnes valuation, but for me I would need one of the following as a headliner to be convinced, with current MLB Top 100 ranking...

Kyle Harrison (SFG | #20), Colt Keith (DET | #25), Coby Mayo (BAL | #27), Andrew Painter (PHI | #28), Cade Horton (CHC | #29), Ricky Tiedemann (TOR | #31), Curtis Mead (TBR | #34), Tink Hence (STL | #42) or Mick Abel (PHI | #45).

If the second piece is super intriguing I could maybe be talked into a headliner like...

AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL | #53), Dylan Lesko (SDP | #63), Carson Whisenhut (SFG | #70), Gavin Stone (LAD | #79), Ben Brown (CHC | #86) or Emmet Sheehan (LAD | Graduated)

So essentially one of the top dozen or so non-Paul Skenes pitching prospects or one of the top few positionally challenged power bats.

About 40% of the guys listed above play for teams (DET, CHC, TBR, STL, SDP) that are probably fringe contenders to even deal for Burnes in the first place too.

I could see the Giants trading Harrison for Burnes but I think it would be contingent on Burnes signing a long term contract with them. 

AJ Smith-Shawver, Grissom and a lottery ticket would be a good haul for Burnes from the Braves and this is probably the same offer they are proposing to the White Sox for Cease. 

I like Sheehan over Stone from the Dodgers but after that it is really hard to put a trade together with the Dodgers without including Adames. 

[sveumrules]

55 minutes ago, nate82 said:

I could see the Giants trading Harrison for Burnes but I think it would be contingent on Burnes signing a long term contract with them. 

AJ Smith-Shawver, Grissom and a lottery ticket would be a good haul for Burnes from the Braves and this is probably the same offer they are proposing to the White Sox for Cease. 

I like Sheehan over Stone from the Dodgers but after that it is really hard to put a trade together with the Dodgers without including Adames. 

I’m not that high on Grissom, but sub him out for one of Spencer Schwellenbach, JR Ritchie or Owen Murphy and that’s in the neighborhood of what I’d be going for.

[rickh150]

1. Trade Burnes

2. Sign Contreras long term 

3. Talk to Yelich about 1B

 

[Redd Vencher]

15 hours ago, sveumrules said:

I’m not that high on Grissom, but sub him out for one of Spencer Schwellenbach, JR Ritchie or Owen Murphy and that’s in the neighborhood of what I’d be going for.

I think any trade of Burnes to the Braves would have to include AJSS and Waldrep.

[jay87shot]

I am fine with a headliner being a position player if there is some power potential in the infield. At this point I wouldnt mind a trade with 3 solid pieces either if no highly ranked prospects is available. Texas could offer 3 of Porter/Walcott/Leiter/ White/Duran/Foscue/Ortiz/Stephen/Rocker?/Harris and make a crazy rotation or more likely get Devin Williams instead.

[nate82]

7 hours ago, Redd Vencher said:

I think any trade of Burnes to the Braves would have to include AJSS and Waldrep.

That would be too much or that is all you would get in return and I don't believe the Braves would be interested in trading both of those pitchers.  You could get Waldrep or AJ Smith-Shawver but not both.  You might be able to get someone like Owen Murphy but definitely not Waldrep and AJ Smith-Shawyer in the same deal. 

[brewmann04]

I want a Top young Arm for Burnes

[Redd Vencher]

3 hours ago, nate82 said:

That would be too much or that is all you would get in return and I don't believe the Braves would be interested in trading both of those pitchers.  You could get Waldrep or AJ Smith-Shawver but not both.  You might be able to get someone like Owen Murphy but definitely not Waldrep and AJ Smith-Shawyer in the same deal. 

It's going to take both coming back to make any deal for Burnes. Whether they choose to meet that price is another discussion altogether.

[nate82]

8 minutes ago, Redd Vencher said:

It's going to take both coming back to make any deal for Burnes. Whether they choose to meet that price is another discussion altogether.

No it will not.  You are overestimating Burnes actual worth if you think you are getting both back.

[Redd Vencher]

3 minutes ago, nate82 said:

No it will not.  You are overestimating Burnes actual worth if you think you are getting both back.

I don't think I am. Using recent trades with SP with similar control, a reasonable return is a top 50 prospect (AJSS) in baseball or a player equivalent, another top 100 prospect (Waldrep) in baseball or player equivalent, and another piece or 2 further away based on the quality of the front half. The Brewers should hold onto Burnes in the off chance they can't get a package of that quality.

[nate82]

6 minutes ago, Redd Vencher said:

I don't think I am. Using recent trades with SP with similar control, a reasonable return is a top 50 prospect (AJSS) in baseball or a player equivalent, another top 100 prospect (Waldrep) in baseball or player equivalent, and another piece or 2 further away based on the quality of the front half. The Brewers should hold onto Burnes in the off chance they can't get a package of that quality.

Burnes value will be closer to what the Padres gave up for Snell in 2020.  So a top 50 prospect and then a couple of organizational top 15-20 prospects.  That is Burnes true worth. 

If you want to put it in a dollar value Burnes has a value of about $35mm assuming he has another 4+ WAR year.  Add in the pick which for the Braves would be o  A top 50 ranked prospect is about $30mm in value which will be in the 3rd round as the Braves will be a CBT Payor with the acquisition of Burnes.  So lets add $5mm to bring this to about $40mm in excess value which is more than what Burnes is worth but I am taking in a serious bidding war for him.  If the Brewers hold onto him until the deadline it will be less than $40mm in excess value probably around $25-30mm.  Which means you would have someone like Waldrep headlining the deal for Burnes.

So with AJ Smith-Shawver who is a 50 FV prospect which puts him at about $25mm in excess value.  So we are about $15mm short of a Burnes trade number.  $40mm is the top of the market so anything within +/- $5mm should be accurate enough.  Waldrep is also a 50 FV prospect so we have two players totaling $50mm in value.  That is $10mm over Burnes valuation with his draft pick associated with him. 

It is an absolute overpay by the Braves if you are including Waldrep with AJ Smith-Shawver.  You can get one but you are not getting both.  The one year of control of Burnes is what is holding back his value.  If this were last year yes you would be correct Burnes would command both Waldrep and AJ Smith-Shawver but not with only 1-year of control left. 

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, nate82 said:

Burnes value will be closer to what the Padres gave up for Snell in 2020.  So a top 50 prospect and then a couple of organizational top 15-20 prospects.  That is Burnes true worth. 

If you want to put it in a dollar value Burnes has a value of about $35mm assuming he has another 4+ WAR year.  Add in the pick which for the Braves would be o  A top 50 ranked prospect is about $30mm in value which will be in the 3rd round as the Braves will be a CBT Payor with the acquisition of Burnes.  So lets add $5mm to bring this to about $40mm in excess value which is more than what Burnes is worth but I am taking in a serious bidding war for him.  If the Brewers hold onto him until the deadline it will be less than $40mm in excess value probably around $25-30mm.  Which means you would have someone like Waldrep headlining the deal for Burnes.

So with AJ Smith-Shawver who is a 50 FV prospect which puts him at about $25mm in excess value.  So we are about $15mm short of a Burnes trade number.  $40mm is the top of the market so anything within +/- $5mm should be accurate enough.  Waldrep is also a 50 FV prospect so we have two players totaling $50mm in value.  That is $10mm over Burnes valuation with his draft pick associated with him. 

It is an absolute overpay by the Braves if you are including Waldrep with AJ Smith-Shawver.  You can get one but you are not getting both.  The one year of control of Burnes is what is holding back his value.  If this were last year yes you would be correct Burnes would command both Waldrep and AJ Smith-Shawver but not with only 1-year of control left. 

Now, if they can packaged Adames with Burnes that’s a different story…

[Rick Daltons Flamethrower]

I am all in on trading Burnes but hoping it will be someone other than the Braves who don't presently  have a strong minor league system. Was hoping we could business with the Orioles. Lots to like in that organization. 

[Frisbee Slider]

On 12/2/2023 at 9:15 AM, nate82 said:

I believe Arnold would have to be absolutely blown away by a trade offer to trade Adames.

Who would possibly blow us away with Adames offer? I suppose Adames had 10th best OPS among qualified SS but I can’t expect a .717 OPS yields a lot of prospects.

[Frisbee Slider]

13 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Now, if they can packaged Adames with Burnes that’s a different story…

Is Adames an elite SS that meaningfully increases trade value? His offense in 2023 was more like Tommy Edman than Bogarts or Lindor.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

1 hour ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Who would possibly blow us away with Adames offer? I suppose Adames had 10th best OPS among qualified SS but I can’t expect a .717 OPS yields a lot of prospects.

With Adames, it's going to take a GM who sees his potential, elite defense, raw skills, and past dominant stretches. You hang up on the GMs who only care about last year's batting line.

[SF70]

9 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

With Adames, it's going to take a GM who sees his potential, elite defense, raw skills, and past dominant stretches. You hang up on the GMs who only care about last year's batting line.

The team likely keeps him for his performance and the draft-pick, which would make me quite happy since I believe he has a nice rebound season at the plate and could lead this team to a central title.

Demand for a SS like Adames doesn’t lend itself to a trade return that makes it worth giving up one of our best players, and thus lessening our title chances for 2024.

And make no mistake, the ‘24 team is a potential sleeping giant.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

3 minutes ago, SF70 said:

The team likely keeps him for his performance and the draft-pick, which would make me quite happy since I believe he has a nice rebound season at the plate and could lead this team to a central title.

Demand for a SS like Adames doesn’t lend itself to a trade return that makes it worth giving up one of our best players, and thus lessening our title chances for 2024.

And make no mistake, the ‘24 team is a potential sleeping giant.

Yep ... and I know many fans don't put a lot of value on clubhouse chemistry, but we saw firsthand following the Hader deal how a player move can gut a clubhouse psychologically. Adames is a glue guy in that clubhouse. 

[nate82]

43 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Adames is a glue guy in that clubhouse. 

Adames is the heart of the team.  He is the leader of the Brewers.