A Survey of FanGraphs Preseason Projected Win Totals vs Actual Results 2016-23

[sveumrules]

Saw that the Brewers ZiPS projections are getting released over at FanGraphs later today, and since there was neither Bucks nor Badgers nor Golden Eagles games this evening it seemed like as good a time as any to dig into how the Brewers have done compared to the projections during the Stearns, and now Arnold era. Spoiler alert, it's pretty pretty good.

Luckily, FanGraphs historical playoff odds (which use a 50/50 split of Steamer and ZiPS) go back to the 2016, so I rounded off every team's projected preseason win total from there and then compared that to their actual win total for that season. 30 teams times seven full seasons equals 210 individual seasons in the sample.

I will break off each division into their own separate post below to space out the details a little bit, but first I'll lay out some of the information I found most interesting putting this all together....
  

[sveumrules]

I hate to start a project like this with a predetermined idea coloring the investigation, but my premise with a bias towards watching the Brewers more than any other team, is that defense and bullpen performance (which are among the most difficult to project) go a long way toward explaining over or under performance relative to the projections.

Here are how some of the biggest over and under achievers performed in those areas over the 2016-23 time frame...

THE GOOD

MIL (+58 Wins)
+242 DRS (4th) | +41.55 bWPA (1st)

LAD (+50 Wins)
+326 DRS (2nd) | +39.88 bWPA (4th)

ATL (+49 Wins)
+89 DRS (10th) | +19.78 bWPA (12th)

TBR (+43 Wins)
+181 DRS (8th) | +37.52 bWPA (5th)

HOU (+41 Wins)
+345 DRS (1st) | +29.77 bWPA (7th)

NYY (+20 Wins)
+73 DRS (14th) | +40.24 bWPA (3rd)

COL (+18 Wins)
+165 DRS (9th) | +4.51 bWPA (19th)

CLE (+12 Wins)
+196 DRS (5th) | +41.53 bWPA (2nd)

THE UGLY

LAA (-52 Wins)
-9 DRS (17th) | -4.68 bWPA (27th)

DET (-50 Wins)
-410 DRS (30th) | +3.84 bWPA (20th)

KCR (-47 Wins)
-159 DRS (26th) | +1.41 bWPA (21st)

NYM (-44 Wins)
-142 DRS (25th) | -0.53 bWPA (25th)

CHW (-25 Wins)
-264 DRS (29th) | -0.29 bWPA (24th)

WAS (-25 Wins)
-118 DRS (24th) | -7.96 bWPA (28th)

MIA (-21 Wins)
+38 DRS (15th) | -11.59 bWPA (30th)
 

THE OUTLIERS

TOR (-20 Wins)
+77 DRS (13th) | +27.96 bWPA (9th)

SEA (+36 Wins)
-49 DRS (19th) | +21.27 bWPA (11th)

CHC (-5 Wins)
+289 DRS (3rd) | +29.29 bWPA (9th)

I'm not saying that defense and bullpen performance are the only thing when it comes to beating (or getting beat by) the projections, but I think there is enough signal in the noise to say that they play a pretty significant role in the whole process.

Before I get into the divisional breakdowns, here is the overall split of the individual team seasons grouped by variation from zero in terms of projected vs actual wins...

(0): 9
(+/-1): 12
(+/-2): 13
(+/-3): 14
(+/-4): 24
(+/-5): 16
(+/-6): 15
(+/-7): 13
(+/-8): 14
(+/-9): 8
(+/-10): 12
(+/-11): 8
(+/-12): 9
(+/-13): 8
(+/-14): 2
(+/-15): 7
(+/-16): 11
(+/-17 to 19): 8
(+/-20 or more): 7

Overall, if I'm mathing this right, I get an average margin of error about 8 wins per season in either direction. 

Here are the individual divisional breakdowns...

[sveumrules]

AL EAST

Tampa Bay Rays (+43 Wins, 4th)
16: 81 (68) -13
17: 81 (80) -1
18: 76 (90) +14
19: 84 (96) +12
21: 83 (100) +17
22: 85 (86) +1
23: 86 (99) +13 

New York Yankees (+20 Wins, 7th)
16: 82 (84) +2
17: 79 (91) +12
18: 94 (100) +6
19: 100 (103) +3
21: 95 (92) -3
22: 91 (99) +8
23: 90 (82) -8

Boston Red Sox (+5 Wins, 13th) 
16: 89 (93) +4
17: 91 (93) +2
18: 93 (108) +15
19: 96 (84) -12
21: 85 (92) +7
22: 86 (78) -8
23: 81 (78) -3

Baltimore Orioles (+2 Wins, 14th)
16: 78 (89) +11
17: 80 (75) -5
18: 76 (47) -29
19: 61 (54) -7
21: 65 (52) -13
22: 63 (83) +20
23: 76 (101) +25

Toronto Blue Jays (-20 Wins, 22nd)
16: 84 (89) +5
17: 86 (76) -10
18: 84 (73) -11
19: 76 (67) -9
21: 87 (91) +4
22: 92 (92) 0
23: 88 (89) +1

NOTES: Tampa Bay at +37.52 bullpen WPA (5th) and +181 DRS (8th) were the best in the division at beating their projections by a wide margin. Yankees bullpen was a little better (+40.24 WPA, 3rd) but their fielders weren't quite as good (+73 DRS, 14th). Orioles overall +2 is hardly indicative of their roller coaster ride with three of only seven total seasons of plus or minus 20 wins in the entire sample. Last two years at +45 wins they are +69 DRS and +10.76 bullpen WPA, both 7th in MLB. From 2017-21 when they were -54 wins vs the projections they came in at -159 DRS and -10.51 bullpen WPA, both 29th. Blue Jays rank did pretty well in both defense (+77 DRS, 13th) and bullpen (+27.96 WPA, 9th) but weren't able to leverage that into beating their projections.

 

[sveumrules]

AL CENTRAL

Cleveland Guardians (+12 Wins, 9th)
16: 88 (94) +6
17: 94 (102) +8
18: 96 (91) -5
19: 97 (93) -4
21: 82 (80) -2
22: 77 (92) +15
23: 82 (76) -6

Minnesota Twins (-13 Wins, 21st)
16: 78 (59) -19
17: 75 (85) +10
18: 83 (78) -5
19: 85 (101) +16
21: 88 (73) -15
22: 82 (78) -4
23: 83 (87) +4

Chicago White Sox (-25 Wins, 25th)
16: 81 (78) -3
17: 68 (67) -1
18: 65 (62) -3
19: 72 (72) 0
21: 86 (93) +7
22: 87 (81) -6
23: 80 (61) -19

Kansas City Royals (-47 Wins, 28th)
16: 78 (81) +3
17: 76 (80) +4
18: 71 (58) -13
19: 70 (59) -11
21: 78 (74) -4
22: 75 (65) -10
23: 72 (56) -16

Detroit Tigers (-50 Wins, 29th)
16: 81 (86) -5
17: 82 (64) -18
18: 70 (64) -6
19: 68 (47) -21
21: 72 (77) +5
22: 77 (66) -11
23: 72 (78) +6

NOTES: Looks like the ALC is thee worst division when it comes to underperforming their projections with only Cleveland at +196 DRS (4th) and +41.53 bullpen WPA (2nd) coming out on the positive end while KCR (-159 DRS, 26th | +1.41 bullpen WPA, 21st) and DET (-410 DRS, 30th and +3.84 bullpen WPA, 20th) being two of thee biggest duds in MLB. Royals have one of the most consistent projected win ranges coming in between 70 and 78 every year.

[sveumrules]

AL WEST

Houston Astros (+41 Wins, 5th)
16: 88 (84) -4
17: 90 (101) +11
18: 100 (103) +3
19: 98 (107) +9
21: 89 (95) +6
22: 91 (106) +15
23: 89 (90) +1

Seattle Mariners (+36 Wins, 6th)
16: 82 (86) +4
17: 82 (78) -4
18: 78 (89) +11
19: 75 (68) -7
21: 74 (90) +16
22: 80 (90) +10
23: 82 (88) +6

Texas Rangers (EVEN MONEY, 15th)
16: 79 (95) +16
17: 82 (78) -4
18: 77 (67) -10
19: 71 (78) +7
21: 70 (60) -10
22: 75 (68) -7
23: 82 (90) +8

Oakland Athletics (-7 Wins, 18th)
16: 79 (69) -10
17: 77 (75) -2
18: 78 (97) +19
19: 85 (97) +12
21: 84 (86) +2
22: 69 (60) -9
23: 69 (50) -19

Los Angeles Angels (-52 Wins, 30th)
16: 81 (74) -7
17: 83 (80) -3
18: 83 (80) -3
19: 82 (72) -10
21: 85 (77) -8
22: 83 (73) -10
23: 84 (73) -11

NOTES: The Astros are almost as good as beating the projections as they are at beating a trash can, but all jokes aside they also put up +345 DRS (1st) and +29.77 bullpen WPA (7th) so they fit the mold. The Mariners are the first big projection beaters to break the fielding/relief mold with a decent +21.27 bullpen WPA (11th) but -49 DRS (19th), The Angels couldn't be anymore hilarious. Projected between 81 and 85 wins every single year and then underperform those middling projections seven of seven years while running a Top 6 to 8 OD payroll every year.

[sveumrules]

NL EAST 

Atlanta Braves (+49 Wins, 3rd)
16: 68 (68) 0
17: 72 (72) 0
18: 73 (90) +17
19: 84 (97) +13
21: 88 (88) 0
22: 93 (101) +8
23: 93 (104) +11

Philadelphia Phillies (+7 Wins, 12th)
16: 64 (71) +7
17: 72 (66) -6
18: 77 (80) +3
19: 85 (81) -4
21: 80 (82) +2
22: 87 (87) 0
23: 85 (90) +5

Miami Marlins (-21 Wins, 23rd)
16: 81 (79) -2
17: 79 (77) -2
18: 64 (63) -1
19: 60 (57) -3
21: 71 (67) -4
22: 82 (69) -13
23: 80 (84) +4

Washinton Nationals (-25 Wins, 24th)
16: 90 (95) +5
17: 92 (97) +5
18: 92 (82) -10
19: 91 (93) +2
21: 81 (65) -16
22: 70 (55) -15
23: 67 (71) +4

New York Mets (-44 Wins, 27th)
16: 92 (87) -5
17: 87 (70) -17
18: 84 (77) -7
19: 84 (86) +2
21: 92 (77) -15
22: 88 (101) +13
23: 90 (75) -15

NOTES: Braves have three of only nine seasons in the entire sample with projected wins equals actual wins, so their +49 wins in only 4 seasons is all the more impressive. Their defense (+89 DRS, 10th) and bullpen (+19.78 WPA, 12th) have both been contributors, but their hitters +51.22 WPA (2nd) is probably the main driver. Numbers in parentheses are net wins, but in terms of deviation from zero the Phillies and Marlins were two of the most accurately projected teams at 27 and 29, or about 4 wins of deviation per season. LOLMets at the end. If their outlier 2022 didn't save them they'd be fighting with the Angels for last. Should also be noted they came in at -142 DRS and -0.54 bullpen WPA, both 25th.

[sveumrules]

NL CENTRAL

Milwaukee Brewers (+58 Wins, 1st)
16: 69 (73) +4
17: 70 (86) +16
18: 80 (96) +16
19: 81 (89) +8
21: 83 (95) +12
22: 90 (86) -4
23: 86 (92) +6

St. Louis Cardinals (+9 Wins, 10th)
16: 86 (86) 0
17: 85 (83) -2
18: 87 (88) +1
19: 84 (91) +7
21: 81 (90) +9
22: 83 (93) +10
23: 87 (71) -16

Chicago Cubs (-5 Wins, 16th)
16: 96 (103) +7
17: 96 (92) -4
18: 96 (95) -1
19: 87 (84) -3
21: 80 (71) -9
22: 75 (74) -1
23: 77 (83) +6

Cincinnati Reds (-8 Wins, 19th)
16: 71 (68) -3
17: 68 (68) 0
18: 71 (67) -4
19: 79 (75) -4
21: 79 (83) +4
22: 75 (62) -13
23: 70 (82) +12

Pittsburgh Pirates (-12 Wins, 20th)
16: 83 (78) -5
17: 80 (75) -5
18: 76 (82) +6
19: 77 (69) -8
21: 66 (61) -5
22: 69 (62) -7
23: 70 (82) +12

NOTES: Brewers are the biggest projection beaters of them all with +242 DRS (4th) and +41.55 bullpen WPA (1st) doing a lot of the heavy lifting. Cubs are another outlier to the defense/relief theory with +289 DRS (3rd) and a +29.29 bullpen WPA (8th), but a middling -5 wins versus the projections and only a 31 win deviation from zero over the seven full seasons, 3rd smallest in the sample. Also think this exercise does a good job of illustrating how the NLC is superior to the ALC, despite them often getting lumped together as equally bad. The actual win tally comes in at 2,972 for the NLC compared to 2,813 for the ALC from 2016-23, while the NLC came in at +42 net wins vs the projections compared to -123 net wins vs the projections for the ALC.

[sveumrules]

NL WEST

Los Angeles Dodgers (+50 Wins, 2nd)
16: 93 (91) -2
17: 97 (104) +7
18: 95 (92) -3
19: 92 (106) +14
21: 100 (106) +6
22: 95 (111) +16
23: 88 (100) +12

Colorado Rockies (+16 Wins, 8th)
16: 73 (75) +2
17: 78 (87) +9
18: 79 (91) +12
19: 79 (71) -8
21: 65 (74) +9
22: 68 (68) 0
23: 67 (59) -8

Arizona Diamondbacks (+7 Wins, 11th)
16: 78 (69) -9
17: 77 (93) +16
18: 81 (82) +1
19: 77 (85) +8
21: 72 (52) -20
22: 69 (74) +5
23: 78 (84) +6

San Francisco Giants (-6 Wins, 17th)
16: 88 (87) -1
17: 88 (64) -24
18: 81 (73) -8
19: 73 (77) +4
21: 76 (107) +31
22: 85 (81) -4
23: 83 (79) -4

San Diego Padres (-41 Wins, 26th)
16: 73 (68) -5
17: 66 (71) +5
18: 72 (66) -6
19: 78 (70) -8
21: 95 (79) -16
22: 90 (89) -1
23: 92 (82) -10

NOTES: Of course the Dodgers beat up on the projections just like they do the rest of MLB (regular season non-pandemic WS only). They also clock in at +326 DRS (2nd) and +39.88 bullpen WPA (4th) to support the idea that elite fielding and relief pitching help you beat the projections. Rockies at least meet one criteria (+165 DRS, 9th), even if their bullpen is predictably non-impactful (+4.51 WPA, 19th). Frequent Offseason Champion Padres checking in at -41 wins versus the projections, 5th worst in MLB, kind of goes to show that winning the offseason doesn't always equate to winning the actual season. 

[nate82]

No idea on the models being used but I think it is safe to say they are using a more conservative number for defense and bullpen when plugging it into the model.

[homer]

Amazing work. Thanks for putting in the time to do this, @sveumrules

[Playing Catch]

I'm guessing Vegas is already aware of all this?

[torts]

So what you're saying is, more often than not, we perform better than they project.  I'll take that, world series here we come!!!!

[RedStickBrew]

Great work. Thanks for posting it

[Matt Breen]

Thanks for all the work.

[sveumrules]

With 28 of the 30 teams victory totals in the books for the year I thought I would update the tallies here. Format is...TEAM (24 proj. wins | 24 actual wins | difference) with the fourth column representing the updated 2016-24 full season cumulative difference...

MIL (80 | 93 | +13 | +71)
CLE (80 | 92 | +12 | +24)
KCR (76 | 86 | +10 | -37)
SDP (83 | 93 | +10 | -31)
PHI (85 | 95 | +10 | +17)

NYY (87 | 94 | +7 | +27)
BAL (84 | 91 | +7 | +9)
DET (79 | 86 | +7 | -43)
WAS (65 | 71 | +6 | -19)
ARI (84 | 89 | +5 | +12)
LAD (94 | 98 | +4 | +54)

BOS (79 | 81 | +2 | +7)
CHC (82 | 83 | +1 | -4)
SEA (85 | 85 | 0 | +36)
STL (83 | 83 | 0 | +9)
COL (62 | 61 | -1 | +15)
OAK (71 | 69 | -2 | -9)
PIT (78 | 76 | -2 | -14)
CIN (79 | 77 | -2 | -10)
HOU (91 | 88 | -3 | +38)
MIN (85 | 82 | -3 | -16)
SFG (83 | 80 | -3 | -9)
TEX (82 | 78 | -4 | -4)
TBR (85 | 80 | -5 | +38)

TOR (84 | 74 | -10 | -30)
LAA (78 | 63 | -15 | -67)
MIA (81 | 62 | -19 | -40)

CHW (66 | 41 | -25 | -50)

[Samurai Bucky]

Thank you for putting this together.  This proves that the Brewers don't look good "on paper," but are still able to get the job done.  Either FanGraphs stinks, or there should have multiple Manager of the Year awards in the hands of Brewers managers (Counsell and Murphy).

I have a feeling the delta with ESPN would be even more.

Go Crew!

[Fear The Chorizo]

So Fangraphs unhealthily hates the Brewers just about as much as they love the Angels over the years...perhaps that has alot to do with overestimating impacts great players have on overall team W/L records (i.e., Trout and Ohtani on the Angels so long over the years), particularly once injuries start impacting those players routinely.  Conversely, one thing I've long though the Fangraphs seasonal win projections struggle with is factoring in team defense and the cumulative pitching staff for teams who lean heavily on their full 40 man roster to churn out wins over the course of 162 games.

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

So Fangraphs unhealthily hates the Brewers just about as much as they love the Angels over the years...perhaps that has alot to do with overestimating impacts great players have on overall team W/L records (i.e., Trout and Ohtani on the Angels so long over the years), particularly once injuries start impacting those players routinely.  Conversely, one thing I've long though the Fangraphs seasonal win projections struggle with is factoring in team defense and the cumulative pitching staff for teams who lean heavily on their full 40 man roster to churn out wins over the course of 162 games.

I feel like ZiPS, Steamer, PECOTA all really struggle at properly valuing speed, defense, and bullpen pitching which are the three things that carried the Brewers this year and typically speaking defense and bullpen have always been a strong point for the Brewers since 2018.

The defense gets the pitching to overperform their peripherals. The bullpen gets the team to overperform their run differential (most times). Speed can help an offense overperform their middling power and relatively average hitting. 

Like it's just an example but currently Turang's 3 year ZiPS projections have him averaging 21 SB over the next 3 seasons with 4 CS when Turang just stole 50 bases with 6 CS. 

[Playing Catch]

The Brewers had six regulars that were either rookies this year, or have just recently completed 162 big league games. They got a ROY-level performance from Tobias Myers. They shuttled SPs and RPs all season.

Naturally, Fangraphs projections were way off for the Brewers. This was what many posters stated at the beginning of the season. Not that their systems hate the Brewers, or that they just suck, but that when the system has little to no data from players coming in, it naturally spits out data that has limited value.

[sveumrules]

2025 regular season is a wrap so thought I'd give this thread a bump with this year's results and the updated totals for the nine full seasons in the FGPO database. Format is TEAM (projected 2025 wins | actual 2025 wins | difference) nine season total...

MIL (81 | 97 | +16) +87
TOR (83 | 94 | +11) -19

CLE (79 | 88 | +9) +33
CHC (83 | 92 | +9) +5
MIA (70 | 79 | +9) -31
NYY (86 | 94 | +8) +33
PHI (88 | 96 | +8) +25
SDP (82 | 90 | +8) -23
SEA (85 | 90 | +5) +41
CIN (78 | 83 | +5) -5

BOS (85 | 89 | +4) +11
DET (83 | 87 | +4) -39
HOU (84 | 87 | +3) +41
SFG (81 | 81 | 0) -9
ATH (76 | 76 | 0) -9
KCR (82 | 82 | 0) -37
STL (79 | 78 | -1) +8
TEX (84 | 81 | -3) -7
NYM (86 | 83 | -3) -39
CHW (63 | 60 | -3) -53
LAA (75 | 72 | -3) -70

LAD (98 | 93 | -5) +49
TBR (82 | 77 | -5) +33
ARI (86 | 80 | -6) +6
WAS (72 | 66 | -6) -25
PIT (78 | 71 | -7) -21
BAL (83 | 75 | -8) +1

MIN (84 | 70 | -14) -30
ATL (94 | 76 | -18) +22
COL (63 | 43 | -20) -5

RANDOM OBSERVATIONS

- Brewers are now eight for nine at beating their preseason FanGraphs projected win total, with five of those years at +12 wins or better.

- Difference between the Brewers in first at +87 wins and Dodgers in second at +49 wins is the same as the difference between the Dodgers in second and the Red Sox in tenth at +11 wins.

- Angels on the other end are nine for nine at falling short of their projections.

- Of the 13 teams that beat their projections this year, 11 made the playoffs with only MIA and HOU missing out. LAD was the only playoff team to fall short of their projection.

- Kind of crazy that both SFG and ATH nailed their projected win totals and have matching -9 marks over the nine seasons.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

3 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

2025 regular season is a wrap so thought I'd give this thread a bump with this year's results and the updated totals for the nine full seasons in the FGPO database. Format is TEAM (projected 2025 wins | actual 2025 wins | difference) nine season total...

MIL (81 | 97 | +16) +87
TOR (83 | 94 | +11) -19

CLE (79 | 88 | +9) +33
CHC (83 | 92 | +9) +5
MIA (70 | 79 | +9) -31
NYY (86 | 94 | +8) +33
PHI (88 | 96 | +8) +25
SDP (82 | 90 | +8) -23
SEA (85 | 90 | +5) +41
CIN (78 | 83 | +5) -5

BOS (85 | 89 | +4) +11
DET (83 | 87 | +4) -39
HOU (84 | 87 | +3) +41
SFG (81 | 81 | 0) -9
ATH (76 | 76 | 0) -9
KCR (82 | 82 | 0) -37
STL (79 | 78 | -1) +8
TEX (84 | 81 | -3) -7
NYM (86 | 83 | -3) -39
CHW (63 | 60 | -3) -53
LAA (75 | 72 | -3) -70

LAD (98 | 93 | -5) +49
TBR (82 | 77 | -5) +33
ARI (86 | 80 | -6) +6
WAS (72 | 66 | -6) -25
PIT (78 | 71 | -7) -21
BAL (83 | 75 | -8) +1

MIN (84 | 70 | -14) -30
ATL (94 | 76 | -18) +22
COL (63 | 43 | -20) -5

RANDOM OBSERVATIONS

- Brewers are now eight for nine at beating their preseason FanGraphs projected win total, with five of those years at +12 wins or better.

- Difference between the Brewers in first at +87 wins and Dodgers in second at +49 wins is the same as the difference between the Dodgers in second and the Red Sox in tenth at +11 wins.

- Angels on the other end are nine for nine at falling short of their projections.

- Of the 13 teams that beat their projections this year, 11 made the playoffs with only MIA and HOU missing out. LAD was the only playoff team to fall short of their projection.

- Kind of crazy that both SFG and ATH nailed their projected win totals and have matching -9 marks over the nine seasons.

Thank you for this. I used to think we were the Rays of the NL. It's getting to the point where you have to say: we're just the Brewers.

This is not to rag on Fangraphs. Projections are hard, there's going to be mean reversion, etc. But, man, it's a huge credit to this org to have systematically outperformed to this degree. In a weird way, I'm almost as impressed by the Dodgers, who have put together very projectable rosters and still managed to outperform systematically.

Great job. with this, @sveumrules

[sveumrules]

39 minutes ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

Thank you for this. I used to think we were the Rays of the NL. It's getting to the point where you have to say: we're just the Brewers.

This is not to rag on Fangraphs. Projections are hard, there's going to be mean reversion, etc. But, man, it's a huge credit to this org to have systematically outperformed to this degree. In a weird way, I'm almost as impressed by the Dodgers, who have put together very projectable rosters and still managed to outperform systematically.

Great job. with this, @sveumrules

Yeah, feel like the Rays and Indians were always kind of the small market models we were chasing and its funny how close they all are from a couple different end points...

Wins since 2007
TBR (1,589 | 5th) MIL (1,569 | 7th) CLE (1,560 | 8th)

Wins since 2016
CLE (843 | 4th) MIL (836 | 5th) TBR (816 | 8th)

These last couple two tree years since Arnold took over and the position player development / procurement has finally caught up to the pitching side is when I feel like we kind of took over the small market mantle...

Wins since 2023
MIL (282 | 2nd) | CLE (256 | t-13th) | TBR (256 | t-13th)

Of course the other big separator has been postseason success with the Rays making two World Series and going 28 W - 36 L in nine postseasons since 2008, the Guardians making one World Series and going 26 W - 28 L in eight postseasons since 2007, versus the Brewers still waiting for a World Series return and only a 14 W - 23 L record in eight postseasons since 2008.

If we slide it up to 2018 the Brewers and Guardians have matching 8 W - 14 L postseason records compared to 15 W - 19 L for TBR.

Pretty much the only thing left to do is finally beat those World Series Odds the same way we've been beating the regular season ones.

[formerlybis]

If I were the modeler at Fangraphs, I might look into whether the algorithm needs a Brewers/Angels tweak. It’s the consistent over and under that makes you wonder whether there’s a missing variable.

[igor67]

I would think looking at a few other projection systems would give some insight about whether the same teams were being consistently under or over estimated.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

3 hours ago, formerlybis said:

If I were the modeler at Fangraphs, I might look into whether the algorithm needs a Brewers/Angels tweak. It’s the consistent over and under that makes you wonder whether there’s a missing variable.

KenPom did this relatively recently with the Badgers. They put up a couple of middling years in that Ryan/Gard transition (the Davison years), and yet the algo had them rated very highly. I think he tweaked things to bump them down a bit because he thought something about Wisconsin's per possession strategy was gaming the system.

Might not be a bad idea to adjust MLB projection in the same way, although I think you might start to run into funkier and less quantifiable variables given the nature of the sport. Good thought.