What Would A Willy Adames Trade to the Marlins Look Like?

[Jason Wang]

With Corbin Burnes being sent off to the Orioles, Willy Adames is now the most valuable trade piece on the team. Could a return to the Sunshine State be best for both parties?

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

To many fans, trading Willy Adames follows a similar logic to wanting to trade Corbin Burnes. With the team unlikely to increase their spending, retaining Adames in free agency while investing in other talent probably won’t be possible. Furthermore, it may be difficult to justify a longer deal after his offensive slowdown last year. He slashed .217/.310/.407 over 638 plate appearances, equivalent to a 95 OPS+. Nonetheless, his glove was immaculate, and he still has elite barrel and walk rates, so he’ll be able to provide value to many teams, including the Marlins. 

They have a pretty questionable shortstop situation, currently slated to start Jon Berti with Vidal Bruján waiting in the wings. Berti was an effective utility piece in 2023, but his ability to play shortstop daily is unproven. Bruján spent most of the year in AAA and posted a decent .839 OPS but has struggled when called up to the major leagues, accumulating -1.6 rWAR over 272 plate appearances in the past three years. They have a few shortstop prospects in the pipeline, namely Jacob Amaya and Yiddi Cappe, but they're a few years away from the show. If they want to return to the postseason sooner rather than later, they’ll need someone more proven, especially in a very competitive NL East division. If it’s clear that the Marlins would appreciate additional help at shortstop, the question then becomes, what can they offer the Brewers? 

With the prospect package received in exchange for Burnes, it’s clear that Milwaukee is okay with deferring success for a few years. In its current form, the team is undoubtedly less competitive but has a brighter future than before. One imminent concern might be at first base. The Rhys Hoskins deal is only for two years and includes a mutual option and an opt-out after the first year, which doesn’t seem like a concrete, long-term solution. Tyler Black is expected to spend most of his time at third base, and the team’s only other top first base prospect is Wes Clarke, last seen in AA.

On the other hand, Marlins prospect Jacob Berry is ranked #4 by MLB.com and has an ETA of 2025, meaning he could be ready soon after Hoskins's potential departure. He’s well-rounded and doesn’t break the radar in any area, but he received a 55-grade hit tool from scouts. His AA slash line of .248/.301/.443 and overall performance in the minors hasn’t lived up to the hype, but at 22 years old, he still has a few more years to figure things out. 

It could also be useful to have another starting pitcher around these parts. After all, the Brewers lost their two best starters in one offseason. Robert Gasser will probably make his major league debut in 2024. Jacob Misiorowski and Carlos Rodriguez aren’t too far off, but it’d be great to get some more major-league-ready manpower. Lefty Trevor Rogers has seen mixed results as a starter but had an outstanding peak in 2021, posting a 2.64 ERA over 133 innings and placing second for NL Rookie of the Year. Since then, he has struggled quite a bit and was sidelined for most of 2023 with a bicep strain, but the juice is still there. With the prowess of the Brewers' pitching staff, it might take a change of scenery for him to reach those same heights again, and he might not have a place in a talented Marlins rotation. 

Ely Sussman wrote a great piece touching on why Adames would be a great fit with the fish. It’s an excellent read if you want to know more about why the Marlins would need his services or are curious to see the trade package that he proposed.

Do you still think the Brewers will trade Adames before Opening Day? If he is traded to the Marlins, what return would leave you satisfied? 

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[JohnBriggs12]

Wes Clarke is a legit 1B prospect with an ETA of 2025.  Then there's Brock Wilken who's primarily a 3B.  He's being fast tracked through the system and could emerge as an option to take over at 3B in 25, allowing Black to move to first, or they could move him to 1B if Clarke doesn't progress as hoped and leave Black at 3B.  I'd add one of the young outfielders and say Dunn to the deal and see if that could pry Xavier Edwards from the Marlins in the deal.

[Harold Hutchison]

19 minutes ago, JohnBriggs12 said:

Wes Clarke is a legit 1B prospect with an ETA of 2025.  Then there's Brock Wilken who's primarily a 3B.  He's being fast tracked through the system and could emerge as an option to take over at 3B in 25, allowing Black to move to first, or they could move him to 1B if Clarke doesn't progress as hoped and leave Black at 3B.

Clarke does have the potential to complicate things. He's a legit 3TO bat and he's pretty good at 1B. Certainly, he could be an option if one of Black/Wilken stumble or end up dealt.

That said, he's also spent substantial time (30+ games, 25+ starts each of the last two seasons) behind the plate. In 2023, his traditional fielding numbers were on par with Jeferson Quero (he was a bit behind in CS% in 2023). There is a case that he's the best catcher not named William Contreras or Quero in Maryvale this spring.

Given the Bally Sports situation, there is a case for the Crew to move Contreras for a haul in the 2024025 offseason (three years of control for one of the best catchers in MLB should bring a LOT), and go with Quero/Clarke as their 1-2 at catcher.

[Trax]

I would question that Adamas could bring the return you mention, I'd be all for it.  I'd be all for it with either if so.

If the right return can be had Adamas needs to be moved now.

[RedStickBrew]

5 hours ago, clancyphile said:

Clarke does have the potential to complicate things. He's a legit 3TO bat and he's pretty good at 1B. Certainly, he could be an option if one of Black/Wilken stumble or end up dealt.

That said, he's also spent substantial time (30+ games, 25+ starts each of the last two seasons) behind the plate. In 2023, his traditional fielding numbers were on par with Jeferson Quero (he was a bit behind in CS% in 2023). There is a case that he's the best catcher not named William Contreras or Quero in Maryvale this spring.

Given the Bally Sports situation, there is a case for the Crew to move Contreras for a haul in the 2024025 offseason (three years of control for one of the best catchers in MLB should bring a LOT), and go with Quero/Clarke as their 1-2 at catcher.

[sveumrules]

5 hours ago, clancyphile said:

(he was a bit behind in CS% in 2023).

4/39 = 10.3 CS%

27/78 = 34.6 CS%

If you legitimately believe this to be a just a bit of a difference, you need to recalibrate.

If you understand the sheer magnitude of that difference and are just trying to undersell it, you are being openly disingenuous.

[RedStickBrew]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

4/39 = 10.3 CS%

27/78 = 34.6 CS%

If you legitimately believe this to be a just a bit of a difference, you need to recalibrate.

If you understand the sheer magnitude of that difference and are just trying to undersell it, you are being openly disingenuous.

 

I absolutely love Clarke, enough to make sure I slip him in our top 20 prospect list. He is also a really nice guy who interacts with the fans and they loved him in Biloxi. But he lacks the tools to counter the run game which is why I have not seen even one scout project him as an MLB option at catcher

Lets hope he continues to punish the baseball at AAA and refine his skills as a first baseman. 

[Harold Hutchison]

19 hours ago, sveumrules said:

4/39 = 10.3 CS%

27/78 = 34.6 CS%

If you legitimately believe this to be a just a bit of a difference, you need to recalibrate.

If you understand the sheer magnitude of that difference and are just trying to undersell it, you are being openly disingenuous.

There is a huge difference. I never said there wasn't. But we've seen both Contreras and Narvaez before him have glaring shortfalls fixed by the Crew's coaching. Clarke's had higher CS% figures in the past. 2023 could have been a blip. Hard to think that Charlie Greene and the coaching team can't at least narrow that gap.

But I don't see Haase or Nola as long-term options - or much of an option. Navarreto... is he even MLB-caliber?

Also, Clarke brings to the table something only one other catcher in Maryvale (Quero) has: Experience working with two of the Crew's top rotation prospects: Carlos Rodriguez and Jacob Misiorowski. That is a factor as well that might inch things toward a favorable outcome.

And then there is a bat that outperformed Jackson Chourio's in several categories last year, which is also part of the equation.

Take all that together, and I'll stand by calling Clarke the third-best catcher in Maryvale.

[sveumrules]

6 hours ago, clancyphile said:

There is a huge difference. I never said there wasn't. But we've seen both Contreras and Narvaez before him have glaring shortfalls fixed by the Crew's coaching.

You said “a bit behind” which doesn’t imply a huge difference at all.

Charlie Greene and staff were able to coach up Narvaez, Contreras and Caratini on framing…

Narvaez
16-19: -22.3 FRM
20-22: +20.2 FRM

Contreras
20-22: -6.3 FRM
2023: +14.4 FRM

Caratini
17-21: -5.0 FRM
22-23: +10.1 FRM

Their CS% didn’t see quite the same level of improvement…

Narvaez
16-19: 52/251 = 20.7 CS%
20-22: 47/218 = 21.6 CS%

Contreras
20-22: 16/71 = 22.5 CS%
2023: 16/93 = 17.2 CS%

Caratini
17-21: 30/142 = 21.1 CS%
22-23: 22/106 = 20.8 CS%

6 hours ago, clancyphile said:

Clarke's had higher CS% figures in the past

Yes, A/A+ base runners aren’t as good at stealing bases as AA (or especially MLB) base runners are.

Narvaez had a 25.0 CS% between AA-AAA, Contreras was at 32.7% in AA, Caratini was at 26% in AA.

If you can only throw out 10.3% of AA base runners, MLB players will run wild.

[Jeff Meyer]

On 2/3/2024 at 8:03 AM, clancyphile said:

Clarke does have the potential to complicate things. He's a legit 3TO bat and he's pretty good at 1B. Certainly, he could be an option if one of Black/Wilken stumble or end up dealt.

That said, he's also spent substantial time (30+ games, 25+ starts each of the last two seasons) behind the plate. In 2023, his traditional fielding numbers were on par with Jeferson Quero (he was a bit behind in CS% in 2023). There is a case that he's the best catcher not named William Contreras or Quero in Maryvale this spring.

Given the Bally Sports situation, there is a case for the Crew to move Contreras for a haul in the 2024025 offseason (three years of control for one of the best catchers in MLB should bring a LOT), and go with Quero/Clarke as their 1-2 at catcher.

I like what Contreras brings and he certainley could DH. But good young Catchers like Quero don't come along that often either. I would say explore and early arbitration year buy out contract with Contreras and give Quero a complete full year at AAA to be ready next year in the bigs. That would be quite a combo for many years to come.

[Jim French Stepstool]

11 hours ago, sveumrules said:

You said “a bit behind” which doesn’t imply a huge difference at all.

Charlie Greene and staff were able to coach up Narvaez, Contreras and Caratini on framing…

Narvaez
16-19: -22.3 FRM
20-22: +20.2 FRM

Contreras
20-22: -6.3 FRM
2023: +14.4 FRM

Caratini
17-21: -5.0 FRM
22-23: +10.1 FRM

Their CS% didn’t see quite the same level of improvement…

Narvaez
16-19: 52/251 = 20.7 CS%
20-22: 47/218 = 21.6 CS%

Contreras
20-22: 16/71 = 22.5 CS%
2023: 16/93 = 17.2 CS%

Caratini
17-21: 30/142 = 21.1 CS%
22-23: 22/106 = 20.8 CS%

Yes, A/A+ base runners aren’t as good at stealing bases as AA (or especially MLB) base runners are.

Narvaez had a 25.0 CS% between AA-AAA, Contreras was at 32.7% in AA, Caratini was at 26% in AA.

If you can only throw out 10.3% of AA base runners, MLB players will run wild.

Just be glad he isn't calling Clarke a legitimate option for 3B & call it a day.😉

[BrewerFan]

43 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Just be glad he isn't calling Clarke a legitimate option for 3B & call it a day.😉

I'm honestly still waiting for the 'Jackson Chourio to SS' posts to begin...

I mean, he was signed as one. That's usually all it takes!