Brewers sign Jakob Junis

[StearnsFTW]

29 minutes ago, ClosetBrewerFan said:

I was going off of COTs which has Houser at $5.05M.  7-5 = 2 last time I checked.  If you have better info, please provide source.

I also realize the Brewers got Crow in the trade (and gave up Taylor) but that always felt like a salary dump to me.  Hard to believe the brewers went out of their way to trade for a guy now that is projected to be injured for most of this year.  That's why i question this signing.  I have nothing against Junis, he'll be a fine #4/5.  But they could have just kept the cheaper Houser.

Junis makes $4MM this year 

[Outlander]

It's $7 million for 1 year, with $3 million deferred to after the season ends. It is more than Houser but I also prefer Junis over Houser. 

[StearnsFTW]

9 hours ago, Outlander said:

It's $7 million for 1 year, with $3 million deferred to after the season ends. It is more than Houser but I also prefer Junis over Houser. 

Right.  $4MM this year.

[Jopal78]

16 hours ago, KeithStone53151 said:

For me, this seems like a fine move for a bigger market team to make. For years we've been able to pull guys off the scrap heap and get similar production to what Junis offers. We can't be paying $7 million for a guy to be our 4th or 5th best reliever. I know Junis used to start, you can maybe consider him a multi-inning guy, I just don't see much surplus value here. Seems like at best we are paying market rate and this team can't afford to pay market rate very often and be successful.

$7 million dollars, market rate??  Like most recent Brewer free agent signings it’s actually a cut rate deal ( especially being able to split that 7 million dollars across two seasons with use of a buyout on a mutual option). 

You can’t sign a free agent starting pitcher for much less than 10 million dollars. Then relievers with starting experience like Matt Moore, Joe Kelly, and Martin Perez are all making 8 million or more in 2024.

Grandal and Hoskins aside, this is the same song and dance the Brewers  do every late January/early February: sign some established veteran free agents who are willing to take bargain rate one year guarantees. 

 

 

 

[Underachiever]

Doesn't really matter what Houser was due to make. The Brewers didn't want him, apparently. Or they really liked the pitcher they got from Boston. Either way, they bucked the sunk cost fallacy.

[Thurston Fluff]

18 hours ago, HarveysWBs said:

I swear I’ve had this argument before (and it may have been with you, idk, I can’t find the old post and I feel like I’m in the twilight zone already), but your definition of “market” just hurts my brain. When I say or hear “market,” I don’t mean or think two parties deciding what it will take to get a deal done. That is a transaction.

A market involves multiple transactions, which indicates current trends, and thus allows for the possibility of overpaying or underpaying. For example, relievers A, B, C, and D are free agents, all with roughly comparable ages, experience levels, stats, and projections. A and B sign deals averaging $5 million per year. Richie Rich the GM decides to ink reliever C at $50 mil per. That is an overpay.

Now, on the one hand, if you want to be bleedingly literal about it, yes, that was the rate settled on for reliever C at that particular moment. But that description is of limited analytical utility and you have buried the lede. The important thing is that reliever C got the deal of a lifetime and that Richie Rich should be out of a job. Using your definition of “market rate” obscures that point. Outliers exist, and we should be able to account for them.

While my definition may be narrow it doesn't make it wrong. If player A thinks he's as good as player B but doesn't get the same offers as player A that means either player A really isn't as good as player B or every team that offered player B and not player A a contract overpaid. Speaking for myself I'll side with the former.

[KeithStone53151]

13 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

$7 million dollars, market rate??  Like most recent Brewer free agent signings it’s actually a cut rate deal ( especially being able to split that 7 million dollars across two seasons with use of a buyout on a mutual option). 

You can’t sign a free agent starting pitcher for much less than 10 million dollars. Then relievers with starting experience like Matt Moore, Joe Kelly, and Martin Perez are all making 8 million or more in 2024.

Grandal and Hoskins aside, this is the same song and dance the Brewers  do every late January/early February: sign some established veteran free agents who are willing to take bargain rate one year guarantees. 

 

 

 

I had a very lengthy response drafted up explaining why middle relievers don't make 7 million, but then checked and saw we intend on having him start...and threw up in my mouth a little. What in the absolute heck is Matt Arnold doing?!? This dude has had every chance to start and failed miserably. I question whether he can even be an effective reliever beyond being our 5th or 6th best option, dude throws over 60 percent slider...just a matter of time before the league adjusts or his arm explodes. It's actually annoying that Matt Arnold can make such garbage moves, yet he's going to get completely bailed out by a young core putting up a lot of runs this year. 

[Jopal78]

9 hours ago, KeithStone53151 said:

I had a very lengthy response drafted up explaining why middle relievers don't make 7 million, but then checked and saw we intend on having him start...and threw up in my mouth a little. What in the absolute heck is Matt Arnold doing?!? This dude has had every chance to start and failed miserably. I question whether he can even be an effective reliever beyond being our 5th or 6th best option, dude throws over 60 percent slider...just a matter of time before the league adjusts or his arm explodes. It's actually annoying that Matt Arnold can make such garbage moves, yet he's going to get completely bailed out by a young core putting up a lot of runs this year. 

I’d be surprised if they truly have Junis in the rotation, and not the swingman it would be playing against his strengths.

As for the salary, 7 million dollars is nothing in today’s game. You can’t get a SP, high leverage reliever of quality position player for that kind of money. You get exactly the Junis type of player: mediocre career numbers coming off a decent season. 

[KeithStone53151]

3 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

I’d be surprised if they truly have Junis in the rotation, and not the swingman it would be playing against his strengths.

As for the salary, 7 million dollars is nothing in today’s game. You can’t get a SP, high leverage reliever of quality position player for that kind of money. You get exactly the Junis type of player: mediocre career numbers coming off a decent season. 

For years we've paid guys like Janis 3-4 million, or we've traded very little for better than him. Junis is neither a quality SP or a high leverage reliever. He'll be a low leverage reliever most likely, unless his arm explodes which with slider usage is likely. Not worth close to 7 mil. The "everything costs 7 million" seems to be your implication and that's just not accurate at all....

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

3 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

For years we've paid guys like Janis 3-4 million, or we've traded very little for better than him. Junis is neither a quality SP or a high leverage reliever. He'll be a low leverage reliever most likely, unless his arm explodes which with slider usage is likely. Not worth close to 7 mil. The "everything costs 7 million" seems to be your implication and that's just not accurate at all....

On the surface, you make very good points. But Junis is a guy who has some peripherals that point to a possible breakout. He's a guy who's "stuff" hasn't matched his output. And if the Brewers have proved anything in the last decade, its that they are capable of taking those types of arms and getting results. This is a team that typically doesn't blow good salaries on pitchers who they think are only going to give them replacement-level production.

[KeithStone53151]

13 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

On the surface, you make very good points. But Junis is a guy who has some peripherals that point to a possible breakout. He's a guy who's "stuff" hasn't matched his output. And if the Brewers have proved anything in the last decade, its that they are capable of taking those types of arms and getting results. This is a team that typically doesn't blow good salaries on pitchers who they think are only going to give them replacement-level production.

Your point is really the primary reason I'm holding out hope that this works out. I look at what he throws, all those sliders is really my primary reason for concern and thinking he's going to get figured out quickly or wear down quickly. 62% is just not sustainable. He was even throwing it 56% of his pitches to LH batters. His sinker and changeup are trash pitches currently, they get demolished by both sides hitters. The Giants are also quite good at pitching development, it's not like he's coming over from the Cubs where there's true hope incompetent development is holding him back. The only way I see this as a potentially good signing, is if we completely punt on the idea of him starting...and can find a way to make his sinker or changeup or both more effective...while being able to throw a crazy amount of sliders and not have his arm explode. I mean, it's really a one year deal, his arm is certainly a ticking time bomb but certainly feasible it holds together this year. I can certainly hope it works out while viewing this as an above market signing on paper.

[Jopal78]

34 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

For years we've paid guys like Janis 3-4 million, or we've traded very little for better than him. Junis is neither a quality SP or a high leverage reliever. He'll be a low leverage reliever most likely, unless his arm explodes which with slider usage is likely. Not worth close to 7 mil. The "everything costs 7 million" seems to be your implication and that's just not accurate at all....

Look around the league since the latest CBA went into effect I think you’ll be surprised at what a 3-4 million dollar or less guarantee gets you: Luke Weaver, Jorge Lopez, Carlos Carrasco guys coming of 6.00 era seasons. Rowdy Tellez, Kevin Pillar, Joey Wendle, Nick Senzel guys who had negative or Zero WAR in ‘23. Even ancient players like Carlos Santana and Andrew McCutchen are getting 5 million dollar guarantees. 
 

Maybe you’re right and Junis isn’t worth 7 million dollars, but that’s certainly the going rate for the type of pitcher he profiles as (back end starter, swingman), and I’m not sure who you can realistically expect them to get for the same or similar dollars that makes more of a difference. 

 

[sveumrules]

On 2/6/2024 at 9:00 AM, wallus said:

One thing to note is that SF's defense was bad so our hopefully good defense should help him more.

Yup.

Giants 2022-23
-79 DRS (28th)
3.94 ERA vs 3.67 FIP
+0.27 difference (26th)

Brewers 2022-23
+113 DRS (2nd)
3.78 ERA vs 4.07 FIP
-0.29 difference (3rd)

On average, pitching for the Brewers vs the Giants the last two years would net a pitcher over half a run improvement on their ERA.

And that’s with SF playing in one of thee most favorable pitching environments in baseball.

[KeithStone53151]

3 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Look around the league since the latest CBA went into effect I think you’ll be surprised at what a 3-4 million dollar or less guarantee gets you: Luke Weaver, Jorge Lopez, Carlos Carrasco guys coming of 6.00 era seasons. Rowdy Tellez, Kevin Pillar, Joey Wendle, Nick Senzel guys who had negative or Zero WAR in ‘23. Even ancient players like Carlos Santana and Andrew McCutchen are getting 5 million dollar guarantees. 
 

Maybe you’re right and Junis isn’t worth 7 million dollars, but that’s certainly the going rate for the type of pitcher he profiles as (back end starter, swingman), and I’m not sure who you can realistically expect them to get for the same or similar dollars that makes more of a difference. 

 

Junis is not a back end starter, if he starts...he's a pitching machine as he had been his entire career until he moved to relief. Going down the link I provided previously that you clearly didn't bother to click on, Middleton, Brebbia, Smith, Ottavino, Yates...are a few guys in the $4-6M range that are better options than Junis.

[KeithStone53151]

3 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Yup.

Giants 2022-23
-79 DRS (28th)
3.94 ERA vs 3.67 FIP
+0.27 difference (26th)

Brewers 2022-23
+113 DRS (2nd)
3.78 ERA vs 4.07 FIP
-0.29 difference (3rd)

On average, pitching for the Brewers vs the Giants the last two years would net a pitcher over half a run improvement on their ERA.

And that’s with SF playing in one of thee most favorable pitching environments in baseball.

Now shift Junis to playing in one of the smallest ballparks in baseball, a lot of fly balls that would have died at the track in SF will go over Miller Park fences.

[Jopal78]

12 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

Junis is not a back end starter, if he starts...he's a pitching machine as he had been his entire career until he moved to relief. Going down the link I provided previously that you clearly didn't bother to click on, Middleton, Brebbia, Smith, Ottavino, Yates...are a few guys in the $4-6M range that are better options than Junis.

The same Brebbia who missed 2.5 months with a lat strain and barely had a positive WAR 0.2. 37 year old Kirby Yates who has pitched 71 innings total the last four years, or 38 year old Ottavino. I get it you don’t like Junis but your examples of old, injured and ineffective pitchers is arguing against your point. 

[KeithStone53151]

9 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

The same Brebbia who missed 2.5 months with a lat strain and barely had a positive WAR 0.2. 37 year old Kirby Yates who has pitched 71 innings total the last four years, or 38 year old Ottavino. I get it you don’t like Junis but your examples here are arguing against your point. 

None of your descriptions paint an even remotely accurate picture of any of these players, I know I've had this issue with you before where you cherry pick support that fits your narrative but isn't a remotely accurate picture of events. All 3 were either more effective or comparably effective last year than/as Junis and there's more reason to expect success next year in all 3 cases than Junis. Age is basically irrelevant on a one year deal unless you think this is the year it all falls apart for any of those guys. All things being equal, I would take any one of them over Junis and all 5 of my examples are earning at least 1 million less than Junis next year. 

[jay87shot]

I think Junis will be ok as a starter but we are probably looking at something like Julio Teheran (slightly better stuff) where he is going to only pitch 5 innings. He will go through some stretches were his 2 pitch mix is dead on and he has 3 or 4 good outings in a row and then one of his pitches will be a bit off and he will look like he shouldn't be a starter. Granted I get he uses his change up occasionally. Someone mentioned Junior Guerra, which seems about right to me (not going to be as good as Guerra's 1st year with us).

[nate82]

15 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

I think Junis will be ok as a starter but we are probably looking at something like Julio Teheran (slightly better stuff) where he is going to only pitch 5 innings. He will go through some stretches were his 2 pitch mix is dead on and he has 3 or 4 good outings in a row and then one of his pitches will be a bit off and he will look like he shouldn't be a starter. Granted I get he uses his change up occasionally. Someone mentioned Junior Guerra, which seems about right to me (not going to be as good as Guerra's 1st year with us).

I think Junis is probably closer to Chacin than he is to Teheran.  I think Junis will be around a 4 ERA pitcher which to me sounds about right. 

[Jopal78]

42 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

None of your descriptions paint an even remotely accurate picture of any of these players, I know I've had this issue with you before where you cherry pick support that fits your narrative but isn't a remotely accurate picture of events. All 3 were either more effective or comparably effective last year than/as Junis and there's more reason to expect success next year in all 3 cases than Junis. Age is basically irrelevant on a one year deal unless you think this is the year it all falls apart for any of those guys. All things being equal, I would take any one of them over Junis and all 5 of my examples are earning at least 1 million less than Junis next year. 

Don’t let the facts get in the way, Brebbia had a 0.2 WAR and spent half the year injured-facts-.

I don’t have an opinion if Junis is a good signing or not for the Brewers, I do know, however, that in 2023 if you’re shopping for free agents for 3-4 million or less per season you’re shopping in the junk bin where most players are in their late 30s, or coming off injuries or just had bad seasons. I think you know that too but want to ignore it in order to double down on a point (you don’t like Junis/Junis sucks) that’s subjective,