Dylan Cease?

[Mr Southpaw]

Any chance we could trade for Cease?  Maybe one of our young outfielders plus, plus?

[nate82]

35 minutes ago, Mr Southpaw said:

Any chance we could trade for Cease?  Maybe one of our young outfielders plus, plus?

The White Sox would want to start with Chourio or Misiorowski.  That is the White Sox starting point so you can throw out Frelick, Mitchell and Wiemer as a starting point.

I don’t think a trade is possible with the White Sox for Cease.  

[Mr Southpaw]

What about Frelick to start and go from there?

Brewers

NAME	POSITION	SURPLUS
Dylan Cease	SP	42.4

Total Value:

42.40

White Sox

NAME	POSITION	SURPLUS
Sal Frelick	OF	35.4
Felix Valerio	2B	2.4
Dylan O'Rae	SS	2.2
Victor Castaneda	SP	1.3
Cam Robinson	SP	1.5

Total Value:

42.80

[Fear The Chorizo]

4 hours ago, nate82 said:

The White Sox would want to start with Chourio or Misiorowski.  That is the White Sox starting point so you can throw out Frelick, Mitchell and Wiemer as a starting point.

I don’t think a trade is possible with the White Sox for Cease.  

Yeah that's just not realistic and a pipe dream even from their point of view.  Cease pitched like a mid rotation starter in 2023, and his 2022 season where he nearly won a Cy Young has been by far and away his statistical outlier for performance and not the other way around.  If the starting point for a Cease trade in the White Sox eyes is that level of prospect talent, than Cease is untradeable - which is a mistake from the White Sox' management.

One thing that is noticeable in recent player for prospect trades is people undervalue what impact prospects are worth across baseball - there just aren't many trades anymore with guys 1-2 years out from free agency that return top 25 in all of MLB-caliber talent when they have yet to play at the MLB level.

i actually think a trade for Cease could come together from the Brewers using some reasonably expendable prospect pieces, starting with one of the young MLB OFs and then including a less-developed minor league arm or two that may become quality MLB starters but need multiple years of development and a good amount of luck with health/performance before arriving in the majors...similar to what Cease was considered when he was part of the trade from the Cubs in return for Quintana that got him to the south side to begin with.  (Jimenez + Cease went to the sox).

[Madhawk23]

If the Sox asked for Chourio in a package back for Cease, I'm sure Arnold would laugh hysterically and then politely end the conversation.  Even Misiorowski would be a major stretch for us to give up on for a guy in Cease that definitely pitched more like a mid-rotation guy this past year. I think the only way we'd give them "Miz" as a headliner is if our FO really didn't think he had the potential to become a TOR type arm in the big leagues.  If you thought his future was definitely as a high leverage relief arm - then maybe you include him as the main piece going back in a deal for Cease.  But, I think our FO still thinks that "Miz" has starting potential in the big leagues.  So, I don't think there is any way we'd trade either of those guys for Cease. 

MAYBE they would consider Quero as a headliner, but didn't the Sox just trade for the other catching Quero prospect from the Angels last summer?  So, I doubt they'd have much interest in him coming back as the main piece. 

I think Frelick could absolutely be a main piece going back, as was suggested above.  I think we'd have to throw in someone in the 6-10 range from our prospect list (maybe Gasser or C Rod), and then maybe someone like Logan Henderson?   

[sveumrules]

Apparently the ask from the Reds was something like three of Rhett Lowder, Edwin Arroyo, Connor Phillips or Chase Petty.

Those were the #2, 3, 4, and 6 Reds prospects on the last MLB list with respective BTV surplus values of $14.1M, $14.9M, $26.2M and $13M currently.

From that I would gather the White Sox value Cease closer to $50M in surplus value so would probably want something like Frelick, plus two of Gasser, Wilken and Lara at minimum.

 

[Madhawk23]

5 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Apparently the ask from the Reds was something like three of Rhett Lowder, Edwin Arroyo, Connor Phillips or Chase Petty.

Those were the #2, 3, 4, and 6 Reds prospects on the last MLB list with respective BTV surplus values of $14.1M, $14.9M, $26.2M and $13M currently.

From that I would gather the White Sox value Cease closer to $50M in surplus value so would probably want something like Frelick, plus two of Gasser, Wilken and Lara at minimum.

 

Yeah, I think you're right.  I would guess that Frelick, Gasser and Wilken gets the deal done yesterday.  But, if I'm Arnold - I have no interest in that deal.  

[Fear The Chorizo]

47 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Apparently the ask from the Reds was something like three of Rhett Lowder, Edwin Arroyo, Connor Phillips or Chase Petty.

Those were the #2, 3, 4, and 6 Reds prospects on the last MLB list with respective BTV surplus values of $14.1M, $14.9M, $26.2M and $13M currently.

From that I would gather the White Sox value Cease closer to $50M in surplus value so would probably want something like Frelick, plus two of Gasser, Wilken and Lara at minimum.

 

Yeah, if that's the case the White Sox must be fine with rolling the dice on Cease being healthy to start this season and shopping him at the deadline...or they think they have a shot at competing in the AL Central. 

[wallus]

Pass

[AKCheesehead]

Crazy to think how much value the Sox could end up getting off trading Quintana.  All the years of Cease (11.8 WAR and counting) and Eloy they've had so far, not to mention the returns if they trade either or both of them.  All for the 4 years 3.8 WAR Quintana got the cubs at 30 something million. 

[adambr2]

Chourio is way too much to ask for Cease. Misiorowski is realistic, though. I don't think Frelick alone gets it done but I think he's a reasonable headliner. 

Given the state of the White Sox I think it's a mistake on their part if they don't get a deal done. As we found out with Burnes, the returns for 1 year of even an ace pitcher will be underwhelming. But they can roll the dice that he'll dominate for a few months and then deal him in the summer. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

38 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Chourio is way too much to ask for Cease. Misiorowski is realistic, though. I don't think Frelick alone gets it done but I think he's a reasonable headliner. 

Given the state of the White Sox I think it's a mistake on their part if they don't get a deal done. As we found out with Burnes, the returns for 1 year of even an ace pitcher will be underwhelming. But they can roll the dice that he'll dominate for a few months and then deal him in the summer. 

Would tend to agree, but if I'm the Brewers I can't trade Mis right now either because the upside is just too amazing to give up with that arm and his stuff...even if it's a coinflip chance at best he stays healthy and improves his command enough to be a Frontline starter.

[Ignitor 4ever]

I have no interest in Cease.  If I recall correctly he only has 2 years of team control so he would basically be a one year player for the Brewers and then we trade him.  Sure, we get players back for him, but is one year of Cease worth what we would have to give up to get him?  No.  I'm not trading any of our top pitchers for him (Misiorowski, Gasser or Rodriguez) and I'm definitely not trading Chourio for him.  At best I would agree to package one of our other 3 OF prospects (Mitchell, Wiemer or Frelick) for him along with a couple of lower level prospects.  Since the White Sox won't do that, I'm out.

[MNBrew]

I'd far rather see them pay Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell -- potentially for a handful of years -- and give up no prospects vs. give up nice prospects for 2 years of Dylan Cease. . . . I'm not saying I think they would or could sign either of those guys, just I'd rather see that vs. giving up anything of substance for Cease.

If they actually did sign an upper-end FA SP (however unlikely), then the theoretically expendable assets they didn't move to get Cease could be used to acquire someone else to fill a bigger need -- or, of course, just not get traded at all.

[Scooterfletcher]

If they’d do Cease for Turang, Wiemer, Peguero (fair on BTV) those are guys I’d be ok moving for him.

[brewmann04]

I don’t see this happening 

[JohnBriggs12]

The White Sox are overvaluing Cease which is why he still hasn't been moved.  Yes he has one more year of control than Burnes but he also is coming off a year where he posted an ERA that was double what it was in 2022.  The Sox put the blame on command issues.  A lot of things can cause command to be off, but not all of them are easy fixes.  I listen to a lot of Chicago talk radio.  I get the feeling that Sox don't want to risk starting the season with Cease because if he gets hurt, his value vaporizes.  They're going to either blink and drop his price significantly or take a huge risk that he can re-establish value before the deadline.  If I'm the Brewers, I keep an eye on the situation.  It might make more sense to get involved at the deadline.