For Sal Frelick and Brice Turang, Troubling Lack of Hard Contact Continues

[Matthew Trueblood]

The Milwaukee Brewers got adequate production from a bevy of young hitters last season, but for nearly all of them, the first thing on the to-do list in preparing for 2024 was to generate more hard contact. That box, sadly, remains unchecked.

Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

The glaring deficiency in the games of both Sal Frelick and Brice Turang, during encouraging rookie campaigns, was a shortfall in the power department. Neither player hit the ball hard enough (or even moderately hard often enough) to sustain the kind of offensive output for which the team is still hoping. They showed good plate discipline and the ability to put the bat on the ball at near-elite rates, they ran the bases aggressively and well, and they played great defense, but Frelick slugged .351, and Turang slugged just .300. Entering the offseason, the hope was that each would figure out how to leave a darker mark on the ball in 2024.

It's very early, but so far, there's little evidence that any of that needed improvement is forthcoming. Each player has dragged their average exit velocity upward, in a tiny sample. Turang is up from an average of 84.6 miles per hour to 86.2. Frelick is up from 83.9 MPH to 85.2. The Brewers really needed to see a bigger boost, though, and specifically, they needed to see each increase their top 10 percent or so of exit velocities. Instead, each has set a lower ceiling, so far. They're not lifting the ball enough. They're not driving it in a fashion consistent with meaningful power production over time.

Neither player changed his swing this winter. Neither has made a major change in approach. Both are doing an exceptional job of making contact and putting the ball in play, but they seem to be emphasizing that too much. It's coming at the expense of any real juice behind the ball when they strike it. Frelick named this as a problem he was trying to solve during spring training, but couched it solely in terms of tightening his strike zone. If that's still his focus, he needs to further tighten it, because his chase rate isn't down any meaningful amount, and he's yet to lock in on a section of the zone where he can do damage when he makes contact on swings.

Turang's situation seems even more dire, despite his superb early results. He's still swinging mostly at pitches up in the zone, which he's still hitting mostly downward, albeit fairly sharply. There's nothing driving his success, except that the ball has crept through the infield exceptionally frequently in a fistful of instances. Both Turang and Frelick are actually striking out more this year, just north of 20 percent of the time. Neither is drawing walks at much more than an average rate.

If not for Garrett Mitchell's injury at the tail end of spring training, Frelick's playing time might be squeezed right now. Oliver Dunn only got his chance to show what he can do because of Mitchell's injury, but now that that opportunity has come, he's shown that one thing he can do is hit the ball hard. He's also been a capable defensive third baseman. Mitchell, though a source of huge strikeout-centered risk, has big-time power. Joey Ortiz has his own exit velocity/launch angle problem, but it's one that offers more hope: his hard-hit balls just tend too strongly to be in a low launch-angle band.

Since Matt Arnold said this week not to expect Mitchell back before June, we can assume Frelick will keep getting playing time for at least that long. Turang is even safer, because his defense has so much value and because his legs have both fueled a prettier batting line and allowed him to rack up value on the bases in the early stages of the campaign. Eventually, however, these two need to find their power stroke. Neither needs to be a 20-home run hitter, but they're not exceptional enough in other facets to make up for a total lack of pop. To stay helpful, they have to at least be able to jolt the ball over the wall 10 or 12 times, in everyday playing time. Right now, that's a pipe dream, based on their batted-ball profiles.

Since both players had long power outages down the stretch last season (and since Andruw Monasterio had an even uglier one), it's worth watching this closely. It might be that all three are fatally afflicted with balsa bat syndrome, but it might also be true that the team needs to coach up power better. In the modern game, the bottom half of the lineup can't be full of guys who slap the ball and hope to scratch out an empty .320 on-base percentage. There has to be some danger there. The Brewers will, eventually, have to fix the problem of these young hitters' dearth of power. It's troubling enough, though, that they don't seem to have made any progress at all on that this winter.

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[jay87shot]

I am not real worried about exit velocity this early. For starters Sal at his best is never going to hit for power. As more of a slap hitter, he will just never own that stat. That being said 1 xbh in 38 abs is worrisome. I feel like Turang has been hitting the ball hard so far, he has had a bloop or two and some seeing eye singles. I think he has also attempted a couple bunts that may lowering his average velo. For both of these guys as long as they are keeping k's down, take their walks, and put the ball in play (use their speed) they will be alright. 

 

[groyce]

Hard to disagree. The lack of power in the order will slow their roll when those three hop grounders stop trickling through. Lucky may be better than good, but good is a better choice in the long term.

[Brian]

Give me a break, Turang is batting .342

That so far is crazy good. That is like saying Rod Carew sucked because he only had 92 HR's in 10,000 plate appearances. 

Gees Louise! 

[gregmag]

How exactly do we know that players can’t provide credible offense with low EVs?  This is the central, unstated assumption of the article. I wish we had EV data for older players like Carew, Brett Butler, Dave Concepcion . . . all different kinds of hitters, but all successful low-power guys. Why can’t versions of that work in the modern game, especially with the demise of extreme shifting?  I’m not asking that question rhetorically, like I already know the answer. I’d like to see the assumption unpacked.

[brewmann04]

I just want to see them continue to get on base steal bases and get the Run in when needed

[tbbc82]

Disagree with the entire premise of the article.  The pitch clock and shift restrictions have had a welcome impact to the game.  The game now has the need for a more diverse set of skills and a variety of strategies to apply.  Base stealing, bunting, sacrificing all have an increased role.

Nevermind Turang's .526 slugging this year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 hours ago, Brian said:

Give me a break, Turang is batting .342

That so far is crazy good. That is like saying Rod Carew sucked because he only had 92 HR's in 10,000 plate appearances. 

Gees Louise! 

Turang has a .414 BABIP. Last year it was .268.

Unless he starts hitting the ball a lot harder - and soon - his numbers will go into freefall.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, tbbc82 said:

Nevermind Turang's .526 slugging this year.

Last year, Turang's xwOBA was .274. This year it's .292.

The problem is that he's making similar contact as he did last year, he's just benefitting from small sample luck. That will run out at some point and he needs to start driving the ball or his numbers will end up similar to 2023.

[Samurai Bucky]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Last year, Turang's xwOBA was .274. This year it's .292.

The problem is that he's making similar contact as he did last year, he's just benefitting from small sample luck. That will run out at some point and he needs to start driving the ball or his numbers will end up similar to 2023.

Yes, it is a small sample size.  However, his whiff % is 12.0 vs. 21.5 last year.  That interests me more.  His average Exit Velo is 88.1 up from last year for sure.  Yelich's average Exit Velo this year is 90.0.  

Turang needs to get on base.  He does that by making contact ala Willie Mays Hayes.  Let's see how he does (and the rest of the team for that matter) after facing some lights-out pitching.

Frelick is probably on the same trajectory.  Baseball Savant doesn't have relative ratings for last year, so last year might be considered a small sample size, too.

[igor67]

Regression seems likely because of the Babip, but I'm also in the camp that there is enough improvement in some of the other important peripherals to believe his numbers will continue to be much improved over last year.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Maybe the numbers significantly changed from when the article was first posted, but a lot of Turang's metrics heading into today are acceptable for a player of his skill set. Fangraphs has his exit velocity at 89.4, which is above average among second basemen. His rate of soft contact is down 10% from last year and is decidedly above average, and his hard contact is up more than 8%. His launch angle isn't really an outlier. His line drive rate is also up. Maybe the xWOBA is a hint that the contact has been less than the sum of its parts, but with his speed and defense, a version of Turang who sprays medium-to-hard-hit line drives all over the field has value even if none of those reach up to the 110 mph mark.