Brewers (Koenig->Rea) vs Phillies (Sanchez): 6/4/24, 5:40pm

[Brock Beauchamp]

Tough loss last night but the Phillies are a great team, especially with Wheeler on the mound. Let's run it back and try again.

[treego14]

Who says 

we can't beat Sanchez?

TBD is a mystery,

but he

will help us win by three!

[igor67]

Bright side at least we aren't facing TBD, that guy kills us every time!

[Brian]

1 hour ago, igor67 said:

Bright side at least we aren't facing TBD, that guy kills us every time!

Koenig is listed as the opener today. 

[wiguy94]

If you want a good laugh, MLB.com did a ROY poll and Joey Ortiz was only in the received votes sections while Paul Skenes and his 4 starts had 7 first place votes

 

[Frisbee Slider]

2 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

If you want a good laugh, MLB.com did a ROY poll and Joey Ortiz was only in the received votes sections while Paul Skenes and his 4 starts had 7 first place votes

 

If there was a survey on which pitcher wins a Gold Glove this year, wouldn’t it be Paul Skenes based only on hype?

That is to say the Skenes brand name is 100x higher than Ortiz.

[Bulldogboy]

Aaron Ashby is in Philadelphia. Guessing he is Gasser replacement. 

[wiguy94]

7 minutes ago, Bulldogboy said:

Aaron Ashby is in Philadelphia. Guessing he is Gasser replacement. 

No he's Myers replacement for tomorrow. Gasser replacement would be for Friday 

[sveumrules]

Ashby (first 7 AAA starts)
31.1 IP | 41 H | 31 ER | 32 BB | 3 HBP | 7 WP | 35 K

Ashby (last 2 AAA starts)
12.1 IP | 7 H | 2 ER | 6 BB | 0 HBP | 0 WP | 8 K

Obviously a tiny sample, but looks like Ashby maybe found some modicum of control over his last two starts.

[wiguy94]

2 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Ashby (first 7 AAA starts)
31.1 IP | 41 H | 31 ER | 32 BB | 3 HBP | 7 WP | 35 K

Ashby (last 2 AAA starts)
12.1 IP | 7 H | 2 ER | 6 BB | 0 HBP | 0 WP | 8 K

Obviously a tiny sample, but looks like Ashby maybe found some modicum of control over his last two starts.

For starters that's pretty impressive cherry picking even for you so hat's off.

Zone rate in his first 7 AAA starts - 39.1%

Zone rate in his last 2 AAA starts - 46.6% 

Although his most recent start was a 42% zone rate compared to 52% two starts ago, so it's hard to say there's anything meaningful to read from those last two starts. He'll also be pitching on 4 days rest after throwing 7 innings which he hasn't done since July of 2022, so who knows how his body will handle going on 4 days rest after throwing deep into a game for his first time in basically 2 years.

[Brian]

59 minutes ago, Bulldogboy said:

Aaron Ashby is in Philadelphia. Guessing he is Gasser replacement. 

Is this true???? His last 2 starts were good. But short.

[brewerfan82]

32 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

For starters that's pretty impressive cherry picking even for you so hat's off.

I don't think it's necessary to callout "cherry picking" when someone already outright stated it's "obviously a tiny sample" and the whole point of the post is to point out there's a sliver of hope that the results of an otherwise struggling player may be shifting in the right direction. It wasn't that long ago that Ashby looked like an important part of this team's future, here's to hoping he puts it back together!

[sveumrules]

35 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

For starters that's pretty impressive cherry picking even for you so hat's off.

How is it cherry picking to point out that he got better results in his last two starts, all while noting the tininess of the sample and throwing a bunch of soft qualifiers in there like "maybe" or "some modicum"?

[wiguy94]

3 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

How is it cherry picking to point out that he got better results in his last two starts, all while noting the tininess of the sample and throwing a bunch of soft qualifiers in there like "maybe" or "some modicum"?

I don't think you need it explained why what you did was pretty blatant cherry picking. You're a smart guy. It's just hardly a coincidence that the cutoff you chose was right after a 4 IP, 6 ER, 4 BB start.

[sveumrules]

7 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I don't think you need it explained why what you did was pretty blatant cherry picking. You're a smart guy. It's just hardly a coincidence that the cutoff you chose was right after a 4 IP, 6 ER, 4 BB start.

Right, that start was much more similar to his first six starts than his last two that's why I drew the line at 7/2. If he had three starts in a row with good results than I would have drawn the line there instead.

I was just noting the recent change in results, acknowledging the tininess of the sample and throwing a bunch of qualifiers on there as a way of saying "but it's probably nothing though".

[wiguy94]

4 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Right, that start was much more similar to his first six starts than his last two that's why I drew the line at 7/2. If he had three starts in a row with good results than I would have drawn the line there instead.

I was just noting the recent change in results, acknowledging the tininess of the sample and throwing a bunch of qualifiers on there as a way of saying "but it's probably nothing though".

And the start before the 4 IP, 6 ER, 4 BB was far more in line with the two starts after but wasn't included because it made his recent form look worse which defeated the whole point of the cherry picking to make it seem like Ashby has suddenly become good again.

[tmwiese55]

1 minute ago, wiguy94 said:

And the start before the 4 IP, 6 ER, 4 BB was far more in line with the two starts after but wasn't included because it made his recent form look worse which defeated the whole point of the cherry picking to make it seem like Ashby has suddenly become good again.

I mean yea, that's exactly what he said he was doing.    He basically just said "hey the guy finally had two good starts after he's sucked for a long time, hopefully we get lucky here and get something out of him".  That's it, nothing too crazy warranting all this

[wiguy94]

Just now, tmwiese55 said:

I mean yea, that's exactly what he said he was doing.    He basically just said "hey the guy finally had two good starts after he's sucked for a long time, hopefully we get lucky here and get something out of him".  That's it, nothing too crazy warranting all this

Yeah he egregiously cherry picked, so I said a comment about how impressive it was to cherry pick a 2 start sample and play it off as Ashby is good again? I don't see how that's crazy. He literally admitted that he cherry picked it.

[tmwiese55]

1 minute ago, wiguy94 said:

Yeah he egregiously cherry picked, so I said a comment about how impressive it was to cherry pick a 2 start sample and play it off as Ashby is good again? I don't see how that's crazy. He literally admitted that he cherry picked it.

yea that's why attacking him over it is overboard.      He said exactly that with tons of caveats and did not pass it off good as again.  He passed it off as there might be a possible sliver of hope for him not sucking.    

[willie key]

Just following the gasser stuff now.   I’m assuming he will be out for the year.   Won’t talk to reporters about injury.   Waiting for second opinion

at Some point this is not sustainable for the brewers.   

[tmwiese55]

2 minutes ago, willie key said:

Just following the gasser stuff now.   I’m assuming he will be out for the year.   Won’t talk to reporters about injury.   Waiting for second opinion

at Some point this is not sustainable for the brewers.   

Yea survive a couple weeks until some guys are back, maybe trade for a blah innings eater type.  But its crazy to have been hit like this and somehow still be in 1st by this much 

[igor67]

Last year it was OFers, at least there are more pitchers on the roster in general to partially explain why.

[sveumrules]

6 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

And the start before the 4 IP, 6 ER, 4 BB was far more in line with the two starts after but wasn't included because it made his recent form look worse which defeated the whole point of the cherry picking to make it seem like Ashby has suddenly become good again.

I wasn't trying to make it seem like Ashby had suddenly become good again. That was the whole reason I included words as caveats in addition to the splits.

If you'd rather move the arbitrary line back two games, Ashby's last four appearances (21.2 IP of 4.57 ERA | 3.31 FIP) are still a notable improvement over the 22.0 IP of 9.00 ERA | 7.22 FIP he had posted prior to that. 

 

[wiguy94]

6 minutes ago, willie key said:

Just following the gasser stuff now.   I’m assuming he will be out for the year.   Won’t talk to reporters about injury.   Waiting for second opinion

at Some point this is not sustainable for the brewers.   

Brewers kind of reaping what we they sowed. Brewers built a rotation that really only had one sure and dependable SP in Peralta (2 if you want to consider Rea which I think is fair as a Rea guy) then a bunch of question marks. Miley has always been injury prone and hadn't put together 2 mostly healthy seasons in a row the late 2010's. Ross had basically not pitched the previous 2 seasons. Junis hasn't gone over 120 IP since 2019. Hall has had injury and reliever concerns. Ashby was a year removed from shoulder surgery. So much downside risk in the rotation the Brewers built. Hard to expect it to have gone this poorly, but at the same time it's not very surprising based on the rotation that was built.

[Jim French Stepstool]

12 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

Yea survive a couple weeks until some guys are back, maybe trade for a blah innings eater type.  

Agreed. We all know Junis, Ross & Hall aren't the second coming of Catfish Hunter, but given the improved offense & deep bullpen maybe they don't need to be. Some stability (finally) would be nice. I'm not a big fan of Ashby coming back right now, but with the aforementioned three not yet available it isn't like we have a lot of choices.