Off-day chat 6/6: has your impression of this team changed after the Phillies series?

[Brian]

11 hours ago, Thurston Fluff said:

If going 5-5 in the last 10 games is our struggling time we're doing fine. The Phillies are 27-9 at home, are playing well, have good health and one of the best pitching staffs in baseball right now. It's hard to think the Phillies will be any better than they are now in the playoffs. We know we can be better.

I agree 100% and Now that the Cubs lost to the Reds again tonight they may be sellers at the trade deadline being only 1  1/2 games above the last place Pirates. 

[Brian]

3 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

 

It was the Reds that beat the Cubs. They have now won 8 of 11 and are tied with the Cardinals just a game behind the Cubs and a half game ahead of the Pirates. 

My bad, I was so excited the Cubs lost I messed up who beat them.

[BruisedCrew]

9 minutes ago, Brian said:

I agree 100% and Now that the Cubs lost to the Reds again tonight they may be sellers at the trade deadline being only 1  1/2 games above the last place Pirates. 

The Cubs are just 5.5 games behind the Brewers. 

That’s a deficit that can be made up in a week.

They’re going to have to fall a lot further back to be sellers at the trade deadline. 

The Pirates are no pushovers with some of their young talent, especially the new pitchers. 

[Brian]

8 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

The Cubs are just 5.5 games behind the Brewers. 

That’s a deficit that can be made up in a week.

They’re going to have to fall a lot further back to be sellers at the trade deadline. 

The Pirates are no pushovers with some of their young talent, especially the new pitchers. 

The Chicago Cubs and Pete Alonso rumors are not going away anytime soon and are getting even hotter ahead of the MLB trade deadline. 

[Brian]

25 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

The Cubs are just 5.5 games behind the Brewers. 

That’s a deficit that can be made up in a week.

They’re going to have to fall a lot further back to be sellers at the trade deadline. 

The Pirates are no pushovers with some of their young talent, especially the new pitchers. 

I was being sarcastic because I hate the Cubs more than ever now that Counsel is managing them. 

 

[brewers4eric]

My impression of the 2024 Brewers didn't change after the Phillies series.  The patchwork rotation held together.  The front office has found allot of solid arms for the bullpen and they've done a good job of deploying their relief options.  Offensively, the team's identity seems to be about getting on base, putting pressure on their opponents with their speed and getting a key single with runners on base. 

The Brewers only drew five walks during the three game series and we never put much pressure on their starters.  The Phillies are good.

I think you win the division by taking two or three games each series against the bad teams.  After the trade deadline, I think its even more important to take down the teams that were sellers.  The Phillies and Dodgers will be adding the pieces that they need for the stretch run.  Hopefully, we can get players off the injured list and make the moves that we need to stay on pace. This year's version of the Brewers has been fun to watch and I'd like to keep watching them in October.   

[Brian]

1 hour ago, brewers4eric said:

My impression of the 2024 Brewers didn't change after the Phillies series.  The patchwork rotation held together.  The front office has found allot of solid arms for the bullpen and they've done a good job of deploying their relief options.  Offensively, the team's identity seems to be about getting on base, putting pressure on their opponents with their speed and getting a key single with runners on base. 

The Brewers only drew five walks during the three game series and we never put much pressure on their starters.  The Phillies are good.

I think you win the division by taking two or three games each series against the bad teams.  After the trade deadline, I think its even more important to take down the teams that were sellers.  The Phillies and Dodgers will be adding the pieces that they need for the stretch run.  Hopefully, we can get players off the injured list and make the moves that we need to stay on pace. This year's version of the Brewers has been fun to watch and I'd like to keep watching them in October.   

I agree 100% but I think we need one more quality arm in my opinion, way more than in the hitting department, that would come second..

Gasser to be out 4 weeks, Jacob Junis 2 more weeks, Joe Ross 2 more weeks, D.L. Hall 2 more weeks, Devin Williams 8 more weeks, J.B. Bukauskas 10 more days.  We are a MASH unit for at least 2 more weeks unless pick up someone plus Miley out Woodruff out.  Also, who is to say when these guys come back they will be the same as before they left. 

[gregmag]

Nah. We played them close and just didn’t hit against great pitching on the road. First sweep of the season — in June. The offense has been inconsistent, which young players tend to be. The pitching needs reinforcements, but the present group is doing really well. It’s the team we’ve had all along — better than expected, still finding itself.

[stalton]

On 6/6/2024 at 10:42 AM, brewerfan82 said:

To add to this, I just compiled some of the Brewers' MLB rankings when it comes to scoring different amounts of runs:

• At least 1 run (94% of teams' games): 14th most in MLB
• At least 2 runs (85%): 8th
• At least 3 runs (77%): 5th
• At least 4 runs (60%): 8th
• At least 5 runs (47%): 6th
• At least 6 runs (40%): 3rd
• At least 7 runs (31%): 2nd

Where did you get the data that you compiled this from?

[Baldkin]

The only thing that's changed my opinion of the Brewers since April is going from MVP Yelich to Marlins Yelich

[BruisedCrew]

On 6/6/2024 at 10:42 AM, brewerfan82 said:

To add to this, I just compiled some of the Brewers' MLB rankings when it comes to scoring different amounts of runs:

• At least 1 run (94% of teams' games): 14th most in MLB
• At least 2 runs (85%): 8th
• At least 3 runs (77%): 5th
• At least 4 runs (60%): 8th
• At least 5 runs (47%): 6th
• At least 6 runs (40%): 3rd
• At least 7 runs (31%): 2nd

While it is true that they are barely above average in not getting shutout, they are solidly top 73rd-97th percentile across the board otherwise, which seems to indicate they're relatively consistent in comparison to the rest of the league (10th smallest standard deviation in their rankings in MLB).

For fun, the most consistent team across their rankings in MLB (according to smallest ranking standard deviation) are the White Sox (30th, 30th, 30th, 30th, 29th, 30th, 30th) and the second most consistent team are the Orioles (7th, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 5th, 2nd, 4th).

I see that someone else asked this too, but I’m curious where you got this data. 
 

Baseball Reference used to have handy tables showing how many times each team, and the leagues as a whole, scored and allowed a specific number of runs. This made it very easy to look up a team’s run distribution. But, with the transition to Stathead last season, those tables disappeared and Stathead does not have them. 

[brewerfan82]

21 hours ago, stalton said:

Where did you get the data that you compiled this from?

 

2 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

I see that someone else asked this too, but I’m curious where you got this data. 
 

Baseball Reference used to have handy tables showing how many times each team, and the leagues as a whole, scored and allowed a specific number of runs. This made it very easy to look up a team’s run distribution. But, with the transition to Stathead last season, those tables disappeared and Stathead does not have them. 

Not easily, unfortunately, lol.

I used FanGraph's Splits Leaderboard to get the runs scored in each game of the season by selecting "Team" "Batting" stats grouped by "Game": https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=&splitArrPitch=&position=B&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=team&statgroup=1&startDate=2024-03-01&endDate=2024-11-01&players=&filter=&groupBy=game&wxTemperature=&wxPressure=&wxAirDensity=&wxElevation=&wxWindSpeed=&sort=0,1&pageitems=50&pg=3

I then exported that to an Excel file where I used a bunch of COUNTIFS functions to total up the occurrences of each team scoring each number of runs, followed by some additional formulas to convert those counts into a percentage of each teams' games played and rank them against eachother. 🤓✏️📈

[sveumrules]

20 minutes ago, brewerfan82 said:

Not easily, unfortunately, lol.

I used FanGraph's Splits Leaderboard to get the runs scored in each game of the season by selecting "Team" "Batting" stats grouped by "Game": https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=&splitArrPitch=&position=B&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=team&statgroup=1&startDate=2024-03-01&endDate=2024-11-01&players=&filter=&groupBy=game&wxTemperature=&wxPressure=&wxAirDensity=&wxElevation=&wxWindSpeed=&sort=0,1&pageitems=50&pg=3

I then exported that to an Excel file where I used a bunch of COUNTIFS functions to total up the occurrences of each team scoring each number of runs, followed by some additional formulas to convert those counts into a percentage of each teams' games played and rank them against eachother. 🤓✏️📈

Here I was feeling fancy because I just put a new tip eraser on my #2 pencil. 

[BruisedCrew]

2 hours ago, brewerfan82 said:

 

Not easily, unfortunately, lol.

I used FanGraph's Splits Leaderboard to get the runs scored in each game of the season by selecting "Team" "Batting" stats grouped by "Game": https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=&splitArrPitch=&position=B&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=team&statgroup=1&startDate=2024-03-01&endDate=2024-11-01&players=&filter=&groupBy=game&wxTemperature=&wxPressure=&wxAirDensity=&wxElevation=&wxWindSpeed=&sort=0,1&pageitems=50&pg=3

I then exported that to an Excel file where I used a bunch of COUNTIFS functions to total up the occurrences of each team scoring each number of runs, followed by some additional formulas to convert those counts into a percentage of each teams' games played and rank them against eachother. 🤓✏️📈

Thanks.

What I tried was a lot cruder than that. I used Baseball Reference and went to  the team’s “Schedule and Results”. Then I could sort the column with runs scored but had to count each number or group of numbers. That would get even tougher as the season goes on. 
 

I miss the old BR scoring tables 

[stalton]

Yea, that's some might fine work BF82. A younger stalton used to be a whiz with Excel and could have done this but I've been out of the game for too long.

It's interesting because I hear alot of feast or famine talk about the Brewers but I wonder if the distribution of any competent offense is not a normal distribution. It's great to see that comparatively speaking, outside of getting shut out, the Brewers are not that radical.

[Stealofhome]

3 hours ago, brewerfan82 said:

I used FanGraph's Splits Leaderboard to get the runs scored in each game of the season by selecting "Team" "Batting" stats grouped by "Game": https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=&splitArrPitch=&position=B&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=team&statgroup=1&startDate=2024-03-01&endDate=2024-11-01&players=&filter=&groupBy=game&wxTemperature=&wxPressure=&wxAirDensity=&wxElevation=&wxWindSpeed=&sort=0,1&pageitems=50&pg=3

Thanks for sharing the way to get to this data! I had been pulling the game logs from baseball-reference which was too manual for my taste. Now with all team data, we can look at a lot more of the trends.

I did find some discussion about whether or not run volatility matters on Bill James' website (this link was working before, but not today for me) and oddly enough, Reddit. Some of this probably requires a bit more space to really get into, since run scoring is not always normally distributed and what is precisely the right way to compare volatile offenses? Anyway, this is what the distribution looks like for all of MLB:

 

Then here are the top six (top 20%) of teams in runs per game and what their distribution looks like so far this year.

[torts]

The answer is no

[LouisEly]

Maybe the inconsistency is because some pitchers are really good and usually don't give up many runs, some pitchers are average and usually give up an average number of runs, and some pitchers are bad and usually give up a lot of runs.

[Playing Catch]

How awesome is it that it's June and we're debating the competency of the Brewers offense, and comparing it to the "other" top offenses in MLB?

[BruisedCrew]

Does anyone who has discovered some of the ways to retrieve this data also have numbers on this year's overall winning percentages for teams when scoring a specific number of runs? These numbers can highlight the value of a team reaching 5 or 6 runs and the diminishing returns of scoring more than 8 or 9.

Last year the win probability jumped from .346 for 3 runs to .486 for 4 and .682 for 5.

The Brewers record this season based on runs scored:

0  0-4

1   1-4

2  2-4

3  4-7

4  4-4

5  3-2

6  5-1

7  8-0

8  1-1

9  1-0

10+  9-0

What stands out from these numbers are the high number of 3 run games, the relatively low number in the 4-6 range compared to the other top teams, and the relatively high number of 10+ games.

[Stealofhome]

27 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

Does anyone who has discovered some of the ways to retrieve this data also have numbers on this year's overall winning percentages for teams when scoring a specific number of runs? These numbers can highlight the value of a team reaching 5 or 6 runs and the diminishing returns of scoring more than 8 or 9.

Last year the win probability jumped from .346 for 3 runs to .486 for 4 and .682 for 5.

The Brewers record this season based on runs scored:

0  0-4

1   1-4

2  2-4

3  4-7

4  4-4

5  3-2

6  5-1

7  8-0

8  1-1

9  1-0

10+  9-0

What stands out from these numbers are the high number of 3 run games, the relatively low number in the 4-6 range compared to the other top teams, and the relatively high number of 10+ games.

I did a quick and dirty method by joining the hitting and pitching tables from the previous Fangraphs link and came up with this table:

 

Runs Scored	WPCT
0	0%
1	7%
2	20%
3	41%
4	54%
5	69%
6	76%
7	85%
8	87%
9	88%
10	100%
11	90%
12	100%
13	100%
14	100%
15	100%
16	100%
17	100%
20	100%

Four teams have lost while scoring 11 runs this year, but otherwise anything over 10 is a win.