The Brewers Farm System Is (Once Again) An Arm Factory

[Jake McKibbin]

If you want the lowdown on the Brewers next wave of pitching, look no further. It appears the 2023 draft class has brought a lot of new, young arms into the Brewers development system and it seems they may have struck gold. 

Image courtesy of Craig Yoho

Sixteen of the Brewers' 21 picks in the 2023 draft were pitchers, especially towards the later rounds, and it seems these rounds may have borne a lot of fruit with some talented arms such as Bishop Letson, Brett Wichrowski, Hayden Robinson, and more. With a lot of high-upside arms have taken considerable jumps already; the Brewers have a massive variety of arms that could all be elite in one way or another. Add that to some already strong pitching that has taken leaps forward, and you will have a recipe for more dominant pitching in the next few years. 

One of the best indicators of a pitcher’s raw stuff is their swinging strike rate, especially in the lower minors, where defenses can be iffy at best, so it’s better to focus on that which a pitcher can control. Being able to miss bats with regularity is perhaps the best indicator of quality “stuff,” we’ll use that and other factors to look beyond mere ERA totals that may not tell the whole story.

Logan Henderson - Double-A, Biloxi Shuckers
Key Statistics - 17.3% swinging strike rate; 33.1% whiff rate; 1.56 ERA

Henderson missed the month of April due to an oblique strain during spring training, and his debut was met with anticipation. Over the offseason, reports were coming out that Henderson had added a couple of ticks to his fastball velocity, which now sits 93-95 mph, and some serious induced vertical break, which averages an elite 18-20 inches of ride. Add that to his deadly, unique changeup and improving slider, and it could be said that he’s the best guaranteed starting pitching prospect the Brewers have.

Henderson has strong command to go along with his raw stuff, spending most of last season at Low-A Carolina before jumping to High-A at the end of the year. He ramped up there in May this season before quickly earning promotion to Double-A Biloxi and has started to show why some prospect hounds have been raving about him as a breakout star this season. He pitched on Saturday evening and threw 5 ⅔ innings of 10 strikeout ball with one of the very few mistake pitches getting hit for a two-run homer by James Triantos of the Cubs. Usually, the jump to Double-A takes some adjustment for any player. Logan Henderson struck out ten batters and walked none, but Henderson has taken it like a duck to water.

His 10K performance in just 77 pitches showcases both his efficiency and wipeout pitching mix that leaves a lot to salivate over. His fastball has seen a lot more swing and miss so far this season, with those improved characteristics making a noticeable difference, but the biggest area for Henderson to improve is the slider. Currently, the command isn’t quite the same as he has on the changeup and fastball, and that can make it a waste pitch a little too often. When he gets it right, it has some sharp, late break that should let it play well, but he needs to start hitting his spots a little more often. If he can, the fastball and changeup could be even more effective in a true three-pitch mix, and at 22, he’s maybe got a little more physical development in the tank. He still has work to do, but Henderson could be a quality number three starter at some point next season for the Brewers.

Yujanyer Herrera - High-A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers
Key Statistics - 16.5% swinging strike rate, 32.7% whiff rate

Yujanyer Herrera is a 20-year-old free agent signing in 2019 who didn’t play his first game for a Milwaukee affiliate until 2021 due to the Covid season. His slider moves like a wiffle ball, and a mid-90s fastball have seen him dominate low A and earn a promotion to High-A Wisconsin this season. Again, as a young pitcher for the level, Herrera was the only pitcher in Low-A under 21 with a strikeout rate above 35% (he sat at 42%). There have been some struggles early adjusting at High-A, but he’s still showing above-average swing and miss at the level, and when he settles, there’s no reason he can’t begin to dominate just as he did at Low-A.

Herrera is perhaps a more underrated arm in the Brewers system, in part due to a lack of helium as a prospect. But he’s standing out emphatically this season with at least one plus pitch in the slider that overmatches hitters at this level. The fastball is well-commanded at the top of the zone with good velocity, sitting around 93-94 mph, and the changeup is developing but showing good characteristics with some nice late fade.

When I say the slider is nasty, this is what I mean:

Bishop Letson - Low-A Carolina Mudcats
Key Statistics - 14.4% swinging strike rate, 31.8% whiff rate

Bishop Letson was the 11th-round pick of the 2023 draft and is one of the more intriguing arms out there. The Brewers area scout who picked him up talked about his changeup making some big strides in 2023, along with some velocity jumps on the fastball, which reached 94 mph (it was sitting in the upper 80s earlier in the season). He threw a lot of strikes, but one of the most interesting things was that he’d never had a pitching coach, and the Brewers thought they could take him forward. They see a ton of projectability in his frame and arm, and it’s been shown so far this season.

Letson is still just 19 and young for Low-A, which is important to note here, but he’s more than held his own at the level. 

The slider, for now, looks downright nasty, while the fastball, like Henderson’s, appears to have some good ride at the top of the zone to help him miss bats and get some ugly swings. As with some other Low-A/High-A level arms, the ERA isn’t quite telling of his talent, and a little more polishing will see that drop significantly, but he’s missing bats regularly and looks like someone in a couple of years that could be a top 100 prospect. He looks poised and balanced on the mound, and you’d expect to see his results tick upwards as the season progresses.

Josh Knoth - Low-A Carolina Mudcats
Key Statistics - 13.5% swinging strike rate; 29.5% whiff rate

Josh Knoth was a comp A pick in the 2023 draft with some pitches that are just mana for a statistical scouting department. His fastball took a big jump in 2023 from the low 90s to hitting 98 mph at the end of the season, combined with a 3,000 rpm slider and curveball, showing a real feel for a spin. Knoth is still just 18 years old and has been plagued by a few command struggles early on but of late his results have been a lot more promising.

Over the last 30 days, Knoth boasts a 17.2% swinging strike rate and 33.5% whiff rate overall, mowing down hitters left and right with some truly nasty offerings. He sits 95-96 mph, which at his age should give some strong long-term projectability to adding more velocity. He may have the highest ceiling as a pitcher for anyone not named Jacob Misiorowski. Those breaking pitches combined with an upper 90s fastball would be truly deadly.

These four are perhaps my favorite pitchers to watch in the Brewers system, but I’m leaving out countless others here:

Brett Wichrowski - Double-A Biloxi
Wichrowski was the Brewers 13th round pick in the 2023 draft, and the Brewers' development system has seen him jump to a high 90’s sinker with incredible arm-side movement to complement an electric slider that, to steal prospect Tilt’s vocabulary, is just goofy. He’s taking some time to adjust to Double-A and has some big platoon splits so far with struggles against left-handers, but that raw stuff can play if the Brewers can help him develop a changeup offering.

Hayden Robinson - ACL Brewers
14th round pick in the 2023 draft (can you see a trend here?) Robinson has started the season in the Arizona Complex League, and at just 19 years old, he’s absolutely shoved. Twenty-eight strikeouts in 18 ⅔ innings, he’s struck out 16 in his last eight innings and looks a surefire bet to be promoted to Low-A Carolina before too long. He appears to have a strong multi-pitch arsenal with a changeup and slider baffling hitters at the complex league.

Craig Yoho - Double-A Biloxi
Perhaps the name most recognizable of this lot, Yoho was the eighth-round pick in 2023 for just $10,000 as a signing bonus. His arsenal is quite freakish, and he’s progressed rapidly from Low-A to Double-A with an eye on maybe even impacting the majors later this year. Yoho has an airbender similar to Devin Williams, who has hitters looking utterly confused, with a 1.33 ERA in 27 innings pitched this season. Until his last outing at Double-A, he had a negative FIP and boasted a 17% swinging strike rate and 38% whiff rate overall at Double-A. It may not be long before he’s in Nashville and eyeing up a major league spot as the Brewers chase the playoffs.

I haven't even mentioned names like Ryan Birchard, Mark Manfredi, and Jason Woodward, who, with more playing time, could fit right into this bracket. Woodward and Birchard both have the potential to soar through the system if they can stay healthy. Woodward is currently recovering from TJ surgery, and Birchard is close to making his return after a couple of months out.

Then you have relievers turned starters like Shane Smith and the 2023 undrafted KC Hunt, who are just tearing up in High-A and Double-A.

It's wealth beyond imagination in the pitching department with such strength in depth.

 

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[SF70]

Yeah, the team has enough starter arms now that they can develop over the coming years to have a mostly homegrown rotation again within the next 3-4 years, especially if we include Gasser-CRod-Myers.

Love Henderson, but his innings buildup might take all of next season just to get to 120-130. So 2026 would be a more realistic timeframe for Henderson to rotation, imo.

 

[Brian]

I guess scouting starters is the way to go since they only pitch about 5 innings now days and they can always be used in relief. 

[homer]

Great article, Jake.

[Jason Wang]

brewers pitching coaches building a top-5 pitching staff every year 

[Jake McKibbin]

22 hours ago, SF70 said:

Yeah, the team has enough starter arms now that they can develop over the coming years to have a mostly homegrown rotation again within the next 3-4 years, especially if we include Gasser-CRod-Myers.

Love Henderson, but his innings buildup might take all of next season just to get to 120-130. So 2026 would be a more realistic timeframe for Henderson to rotation, imo.

 

He very well may end up spending most of this year at Double A and begin next year at Triple A with a delayed ramp up perhaps.

I think it all hinges on that slider, can he locate it well enough to be an effective third offering. If he can make strides here then he may force the Brewers hand in chancing adding him early next year and just seeing how well the body holds up.

19 hours ago, homer said:

Great article, Jake.

Thanks! I really enjoyed writing it, the fact I couldn't go as deep into Smith and Hunt as I'd have wanted without writing a novel both plagues me and excites me in equal measures

[CheeseheadInQC]

With hitting prospects, quality is key. Pitching, however, with the injury rates anymore you really need quantity as well. I like to see the Brewers building that.

[biedergb]

Can we add to that list Manuel Rodriguez. 18 year old starter in low A. Sure the stats look nice, and he does when we he starts. But this organization never lets pitchers go deep…. Except this kid.  Only 2 of his 11 starts are less than 5 IP. He has 4 Quality starts - yes a very imperfect stat but it does require pitching 6 innings. Again in an organization where pitch counts are seemingly carefully monitored, pitchers are oftentimes limited to only 2 trips through the batting order and 4-5 IP starts are normal, this kid is going 5-6 IP (59.w IP in 11 starts) on a regular basis with good strikeout numbers (I mean amazing if you factor in age), but incredible control with only 6 BB in almost 60 innings. 
He is young. He has years to go. But very promising. He could see high A next year as long as he had no injuries (please baseball gods, please no), as a 19 year old. That’s like a HS pitcher drafted this upcoming draft being in high A next year.

[Sugarrayray]

Jake, thank you so much. Upon my word, this article was eloquent, nice, and sexy.

Can you expound at all on Yoho’s freakish arsenal? What are his other pitches outside fastball/change and whats his velo topping at these days.

Lastly, what was it that made the pitching brass decide to turn Smith into a starter mid season? A somewhat strange decision but appearing to work out admirably :) Whats his third pitch after his power fastball/breaking ball combo?

 

Thanks again for all the wonderful stuff.

[Jake McKibbin]

22 hours ago, biedergb said:

Can we add to that list Manuel Rodriguez. 18 year old starter in low A. Sure the stats look nice, and he does when we he starts. But this organization never lets pitchers go deep…. Except this kid.  Only 2 of his 11 starts are less than 5 IP. He has 4 Quality starts - yes a very imperfect stat but it does require pitching 6 innings. Again in an organization where pitch counts are seemingly carefully monitored, pitchers are oftentimes limited to only 2 trips through the batting order and 4-5 IP starts are normal, this kid is going 5-6 IP (59.w IP in 11 starts) on a regular basis with good strikeout numbers (I mean amazing if you factor in age), but incredible control with only 6 BB in almost 60 innings. 
He is young. He has years to go. But very promising. He could see high A next year as long as he had no injuries (please baseball gods, please no), as a 19 year old. That’s like a HS pitcher drafted this upcoming draft being in high A next year.

I couldn't agree more, and perhaps should have stretched this into two pieces. Rodriguez has done better vs lefty's than righty's so far this season, and his main reason for success is the minuscule walk rate. Rodriguez 2.5% rate is just incredible and it's allowing him to go deep into starts than, as you say, they would usually allow at that age. Control like that is unusual as a teenager and it'll be interesting to see how the stuff holds up moving up levels. That being said, an almost 14% whiff rate while pounding the strike zone is pretty damn impressive.

 

1 hour ago, Sugarrayray said:

Jake, thank you so much. Upon my word, this article was eloquent, nice, and sexy.

Can you expound at all on Yoho’s freakish arsenal? What are his other pitches outside fastball/change and whats his velo topping at these days.

Lastly, what was it that made the pitching brass decide to turn Smith into a starter mid season? A somewhat strange decision but appearing to work out admirably :) Whats his third pitch after his power fastball/breaking ball combo?

 

Thanks again for all the wonderful stuff.

Haha thanks very much, eloquent and sexy is a new one for me!

Yoho's arsenal involves a:

• A two seamer at 92-93 mph with over 202 of arm side run
• A slider/curveball (it has so much depth it sometimes gets miscategorised as a curve, but I think it's a slider) with serious two plane depth glove side
• A cutter in the high 80's he added this summer
• And last but certainly not least, an airbending changeup to rival Devin Williams

Perhaps the best aspect of it all for Yoho is all his pitches have extreme movement profiles, and he has both two fastballs and tow breaking pitches that move in opposite directions. It's a hitting nightmare

Shane Smith is one I really wanted to talk about, and can't wait to get more data about him and his arsenal when he reaches Triple A. He has good command and works ahead in the count well. Although his stuff doesn't necessarily stand out like some of the others mentioned, it's his combination of command and stuff that really stands out in his results. A 15% swinging strike rate is well above average and my favourite pitch is that incredible curveball.

He leans most heavily on the fastball/curve but he does have a decent slider as well for a third pitch. If the Brewers can throw a changeup in there that could be a big difference maker as his splits are noticeable with a 16.8% swinging strike rate to righties vs just 12.9% to lefties.

I think the main reason for him moving into the rotation was injury based. Starting out of the bullpen Smith had only pitched 10 1/3 innings at Wake Forest and that included a TJ recovery in there. With a full season behind him, they maybe felt they could start stretching him out more and see how he handles it which, so far, is with absolute aplomb.

[biedergb]

2 hours ago, Jake McKibbin said:

I think the main reason for him moving into the rotation was injury based. Starting out of the bullpen Smith had only pitched 10 1/3 innings at Wake Forest and that included a TJ recovery in there. With a full season behind him, they maybe felt they could start stretching him out more and see how he handles it which, so far, is with absolute aplomb.

I agree. From the interviews and the write up on him, sounds like an intriguing arm with a lot of injury history. So ease him in with relief appearances. I am guessing they will see how his stuff translates and his arm holds up and if he does well we have a starter, if not we have another possible ace reliever (along with Yoho etc)

[Sugarrayray]

6 hours ago, Jake McKibbin said:

I couldn't agree more, and perhaps should have stretched this into two pieces. Rodriguez has done better vs lefty's than righty's so far this season, and his main reason for success is the minuscule walk rate. Rodriguez 2.5% rate is just incredible and it's allowing him to go deep into starts than, as you say, they would usually allow at that age. Control like that is unusual as a teenager and it'll be interesting to see how the stuff holds up moving up levels. That being said, an almost 14% whiff rate while pounding the strike zone is pretty damn impressive.

 

Haha thanks very much, eloquent and sexy is a new one for me!

Yoho's arsenal involves a:

• A two seamer at 92-93 mph with over 202 of arm side run
• A slider/curveball (it has so much depth it sometimes gets miscategorised as a curve, but I think it's a slider) with serious two plane depth glove side
• A cutter in the high 80's he added this summer
• And last but certainly not least, an airbending changeup to rival Devin Williams

Perhaps the best aspect of it all for Yoho is all his pitches have extreme movement profiles, and he has both two fastballs and tow breaking pitches that move in opposite directions. It's a hitting nightmare

Shane Smith is one I really wanted to talk about, and can't wait to get more data about him and his arsenal when he reaches Triple A. He has good command and works ahead in the count well. Although his stuff doesn't necessarily stand out like some of the others mentioned, it's his combination of command and stuff that really stands out in his results. A 15% swinging strike rate is well above average and my favourite pitch is that incredible curveball.

He leans most heavily on the fastball/curve but he does have a decent slider as well for a third pitch. If the Brewers can throw a changeup in there that could be a big difference maker as his splits are noticeable with a 16.8% swinging strike rate to righties vs just 12.9% to lefties.

I think the main reason for him moving into the rotation was injury based. Starting out of the bullpen Smith had only pitched 10 1/3 innings at Wake Forest and that included a TJ recovery in there. With a full season behind him, they maybe felt they could start stretching him out more and see how he handles it which, so far, is with absolute aplomb.

Boy I could hear you wax about (Brewers) pitching all day long! 
 

Thanks for the in depth replies!! So appreciated.

[jay87shot]

Great article, I would say guys like Enoli Paredes, Jared Koenig, Tobias Myers could all be added as guys we have developed quickly and have had huge big league impacts. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

I know Yoho is a relatively late bloomer as a pitcher, but my goodness, a $10,000 bonus---------when did we sign him, 1964?😄

[Jim French Stepstool]

On 6/19/2024 at 9:18 AM, biedergb said:

Can we add to that list Manuel Rodriguez. 18 year old starter in low A. Sure the stats look nice, and he does when we he starts. But this organization never lets pitchers go deep…. Except this kid.  Only 2 of his 11 starts are less than 5 IP. He has 4 Quality starts - yes a very imperfect stat but it does require pitching 6 innings. Again in an organization where pitch counts are seemingly carefully monitored, pitchers are oftentimes limited to only 2 trips through the batting order and 4-5 IP starts are normal, this kid is going 5-6 IP (59.w IP in 11 starts) on a regular basis with good strikeout numbers (I mean amazing if you factor in age), but incredible control with only 6 BB in almost 60 innings. 
He is young. He has years to go. But very promising. He could see high A next year as long as he had no injuries (please baseball gods, please no), as a 19 year old. That’s like a HS pitcher drafted this upcoming draft being in high A next year.

Thanks for the info. I was aware of Rodriguez but never looked into him deeply enough. About 1 walk per 9-10 innings along with the length he's providing, at age 18, that's exciting.