2024-25 Offseason Ideas

[jay87shot]

17 hours ago, NOMAAM said:

Last year was Alex’s first multi war year correct.  What was the difference between this year and his previous couple?

His defense took a big jump, at 3B in 2021 -5, 2022 -13, 2023 -10, last year +7. He also had 44 2B and reduced strikeouts to 86, so his ops+ was 10 points higher. 

For me, the bat has been consistent and there is some power potential that hasn't been realized. I think he still has 30 HR potential like when he was drafted,  especially at AFF. He would be a slightly risky add with his struggles at the end of the year and past defensive liabilities. However he is probably the best 3B that we could add within our means. If he has a 30 HR year he could be a guy who could be in line for that coveted QO and net a pick down the road as well.

[sveumrules]

2 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

I think he still has 30 HR potential like when he was drafted,  especially at AFF.

For whatever it is or isn’t worth StatCast park factors has Citizens Bank ever so slightly more HR friendly than AmFam at 115 to 114 so he likely wouldn’t get much of a stadium boost coming to MKE.

[nate82]

32 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

For whatever it is or isn’t worth StatCast park factors has Citizens Bank ever so slightly more HR friendly than AmFam at 115 to 114 so he likely wouldn’t get much of a stadium boost coming to MKE.

This is his 2024 spray chart with AmFam overlay.  Assuming he would hit the same he would have a few doubles and outs recorded as HR's.  Mostly his outs to Left Center and Right Center would be home runs and he would also benefit from the shorter dimensions in RF compared to Citizens Bank. 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/illustrator?playerId=664761&playerType=batter&name=Alec Bohm&tabSelection=0&shape=square&shapeName=Square (Instagram)&subTitle=&chartType=sprayChart&chartName=Spray Chart&pitcherThrows=&batterStands=&plateAppearanceResults=[]&pitchTypes=[]&seasonType=["R"]&pitchResults=[]&facingPlayer=[]&balls=[]&battedBallType=[]&years=[2024]&strikes=[]&outs=[]&selectedGames=[]&homeTeam=[]&awayTeam=[]&vsTeam=[]&exitVelocityGT=0&exitVelocityLT=125&pitchVelocityGT=0&pitchVelocityLT=105&launchAngleGT=-90&launchAngleLT=90&perspective=catcher&venue=32

His expected adjusted is the same in Milwaukee as it would be in Philadelphia and just one less on the standard over at Baseball Savant. 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/alec-bohm-664761?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

[NOMAAM]

1 hour ago, jay87shot said:

His defense took a big jump, at 3B in 2021 -5, 2022 -13, 2023 -10, last year +7. He also had 44 2B and reduced strikeouts to 86, so his ops+ was 10 points higher. 

For me, the bat has been consistent and there is some power potential that hasn't been realized. I think he still has 30 HR potential like when he was drafted,  especially at AFF. He would be a slightly risky add with his struggles at the end of the year and past defensive liabilities. However he is probably the best 3B that we could add within our means. If he has a 30 HR year he could be a guy who could be in line for that coveted QO and net a pick down the road as well.

Idk, probably name usually intails.  Not being within brewers means.

[jay87shot]

What about Devin to the Angels? They have said they are going to up payroll, Devin makes sense that there pen is weak and could trade him at the deadline and get basically the same value they give up.

Devin for 3B/2B Luis Rengifo, RP Camden Minacci, OF Rio Foster

We get a solid IF option and 2 upside prospect adds. The Angels get a big name to make there fans happy, they likely will rush Christian Moore to the bigs like Neto and Schaunel.  

 

 

[Lloyd330]

have a feeling we will sign Nick Madrigal to a minor league deal. 

[Madhawk23]

6 hours ago, jay87shot said:

What about Devin to the Angels? They have said they are going to up payroll, Devin makes sense that there pen is weak and could trade him at the deadline and get basically the same value they give up.

Devin for 3B/2B Luis Rengifo, RP Camden Minacci, OF Rio Foster

We get a solid IF option and 2 upside prospect adds. The Angels get a big name to make there fans happy, they likely will rush Christian Moore to the bigs like Neto and Schaunel.  

 

 

Meh....just not sure if Arnold will want to deal Devin for a guy like Rengifo - that you'd similarly only have control over through next season?  And, I doubt either of those prospects are needle-movers?  

[sveumrules]

8 minutes ago, Madhawk23 said:

Meh....just not sure if Arnold will want to deal Devin for a guy like Rengifo - that you'd similarly only have control over through next season?  And, I doubt either of those prospects are needle-movers?  

Yeah, Rengifo is absolutely brutal afield...

2B (2,460 inn.)
-9 DRS | -12 FRV

3B (850 inn.)
+1 DRS | -8 FRV

SS (625 inn.)
-5 DRS | -9 FRV

Would imagine that disqualifies him for consideration in the Brewers run prevention scheme.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

2 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Yeah, Rengifo is absolutely brutal afield...

2B (2,460 inn.)
-9 DRS | -12 FRV

3B (850 inn.)
+1 DRS | -8 FRV

SS (625 inn.)
-5 DRS | -9 FRV

Would imagine that disqualifies him for consideration in the Brewers run prevention scheme.

He's more mediocre at third than brutal, but that may still make him an unlikely get for the Brewers.  On the plus side, he absolutely destroys LH pitchers.  I think he would be a good fit for our team, though wish he had more power.

[jay87shot]

I was reading that the Red Sox are thinking about moving Rafi Devers to 1st creating a strange scenerio with Triston Cases and Yoshida. Would there be any possiblity that we could trade for Casas, he would be a perfect long term 1st baseman for us.  

Would Devin, Peguero, and 2 prospect (say Black and Henderson) get close? To much?

[jay87shot]

I am going to run with the Casas idea.

1)Casas for Devin, Peguero, Black, Henderson

2)Coby Mayo for Freddy Peralta and Mike Boeve

3) Trade Rhys (eat 6 million) to Mets for low level prospect

4)Sign Buehler 1/15 (option(s)), Eovaldi 2/36, Scherzer 1/18, Beiber/Sugano 2/25

Ok this is a pretty big stretch but lets say the O's strikeout on pitching and get desperate for Freddy and the Mets strikeout on power bats. Our everyday positions would be lock in for like 3 years until arby raises. Our pitching would be solid this year but reliant on our younger starters for the future (which it is anyways). 

 

[wntrtxn21]

1 hour ago, jay87shot said:

I am going to run with the Casas idea.

1)Casas for Devin, Peguero, Black, Henderson

2)Coby Mayo for Freddy Peralta and Mike Boeve

3) Trade Rhys (eat 6 million) to Mets for low level prospect

4)Sign Buehler 1/15 (option(s)), Eovaldi 2/36, Scherzer 1/18, Beiber/Sugano 2/25

Ok this is a pretty big stretch but lets say the O's strikeout on pitching and get desperate for Freddy and the Mets strikeout on power bats. Our everyday positions would be lock in for like 3 years until arby raises. Our pitching would be solid this year but reliant on our younger starters for the future (which it is anyways). 

 

I like your thinking and much of this could be possible. However you'd be about 10% over budget. The Red Sox do want to move Devers (he was the worst fielding 3B in baseball) so Casas would be available.  Maybe put Henderson in the Mayo deal. If the Mets lose out on a 1B, Hoskins could be a target and at a reasonable price for the Mets.  I think Eovaldi is going to get more than a 2 year deal and over $20M per year. I don't know how much time Bieber is going to miss to start the year. If you subtract Scherzer you would get closer to budget. 

[Matt]

ESPN's got an article on one big move every team should make. 

When they got to the Brewers they were literally like 🤷‍♂️ we got nothing.

[Scooterfletcher]

13 hours ago, jay87shot said:

I was reading that the Red Sox are thinking about moving Rafi Devers to 1st creating a strange scenerio with Triston Cases and Yoshida. Would there be any possiblity that we could trade for Casas, he would be a perfect long term 1st baseman for us.  

Would Devin, Peguero, and 2 prospect (say Black and Henderson) get close? To much?

I love all your posts and comments Jay, but this is massively more than I’d pay for Casas.   We can deal these pieces one by one (or keep a couple of them) and have a much greater outlook than Casas alone gives us for four nice pieces.

[Scooterfletcher]

1 minute ago, Scooterfletcher said:

I love all your posts and comments Jay, but this is massively more than I’d pay for Casas.   We can deal these pieces one by one (or keep a couple of them) and have a much greater outlook than Casas alone gives us for four nice pieces.

In fact, if they are sold on moving Devers to first, I wouldn’t trade Henderson and Black alone for Casas.   He’s just not that good.

[Playing Catch]

10 hours ago, Matt said:

ESPN's got an article on one big move every team should make. 

When they got to the Brewers they were literally like 🤷‍♂️ we got nothing.

It's hard for an outsider to look at this team and feel like they NEED a big move.

[sveumrules]

9 hours ago, Scooterfletcher said:

In fact, if they are sold on moving Devers to first, I wouldn’t trade Henderson and Black alone for Casas.   He’s just not that good.

Steamer projects Casas for 124 wRC+ | 2.5 WAR next year which is a Top Ten projection at 1B for them.

That’s right in line with the projections for guys like Alonso (125 wRC+ | 2.6 WAR) and Walker (119 wRC+ | 2.5 WAR) who are about to bank in free agency except Casas is only 25 and will be making significantly less money over the next four years under team control.

Before graduating he had appeared on eleven different BA/MLB/BPro Top 100 lists peaking as high as two Top Twenty placements at #19 and #16.

I wouldn’t personally do Henderson and Black for him because his defense at 1B is so bad he should probably be a DH only already, but if the Red Sox do put him on the market I’d guess they land a better haul than that anyway.

Given the Red Sox catching situation, Connor Wong had a nice 110 wRC+ but a not so nice -14 DRS | -10 FRV | -11.5 FRM, my guess is any productive talks would have to start with Quero.

[Devinep]

2 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Steamer projects Casas for 124 wRC+ | 2.5 WAR next year which is a Top Ten projection at 1B for them.

That’s right in line with the projections for guys like Alonso (125 wRC+ | 2.6 WAR) and Walker (119 wRC+ | 2.5 WAR) who are about to bank in free agency except Casas is only 25 and will be making significantly less money over the next four years under team control.

Before graduating he had appeared on eleven different BA/MLB/BPro Top 100 lists peaking as high as two Top Twenty placements at #19 and #16.

I wouldn’t personally do Henderson and Black for him because his defense at 1B is so bad he should probably be a DH only already, but if the Red Sox do put him on the market I’d guess they land a better haul than that anyway.

Given the Red Sox catching situation, Connor Wong had a nice 110 wRC+ but a not so nice -14 DRS | -10 FRV | -11.5 FRM, my guess is any productive talks would have to start with Quero.

I’m not sure they’d want Quero too much with Kyle Teel already reaching AAA

[sveumrules]

15 minutes ago, Devinep said:

I’m not sure they’d want Quero too much with Kyle Teel already reaching AAA

Teel sounds like more of a bat first lefty option who has struggled to control the running game a bit at AA/AAA with 100 SB / 25 CS (20.0 CS%) over 690 innings.

Quero would be a perfect complement as the defensively tooled up - 51 SB / 27 CS (34.6 CS%) in 622 innings at AA - righty hitting option.

[Devinep]

4 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Teel sounds like more of a bat first lefty option who has struggled to control the running game a bit at AA/AAA with 100 SB / 25 CS (20.0 CS%) over 690 innings.

Quero would be a perfect complement as the defensively tooled up - 51 SB / 27 CS (34.6 CS%) in 622 innings at AA - righty hitting option.

That’s a good point that they could co-exist well. I just think that in the event Casas becomes expendable due to Devers moving to 1B, that would out 3B as a need as well as back end relief and SP. if those weren’t filled first, those would probably be what Boston would want in exchange for Casas before getting catching help 
 

but getting Casas would be really good for Milwaukee 

[Matt]

12 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

It's hard for an outsider to look at this team and feel like they NEED a big move.

The other two teams in the category were the Rockies and Twins, though. I can buy the Rockies but the Twins? 

[Playing Catch]

On 11/28/2024 at 8:17 PM, Matt said:

The other two teams in the category were the Rockies and Twins, though. I can buy the Rockies but the Twins? 

All of the Twins fans I know talk the same way... the Pohlad's are cheap asses that ruined a good thing by cutting payroll.

I just don't see it that way at all. I think it is quite similar to Brewers fans that don't fairly assess the differences between MLB and NFL/NBA. Not that the Twins didn't cut payroll, which may, or may not have anything to do with the Bally's fiasco, but just that their team was going to be younger and cheaper (and better), without major FA additions.

Had they made the playoffs, I think most of the fans would still grumble about the Pohlads, but missing the playoffs gave them what they actually wanted... new ownership. Or, at least a team that is kinda for sale.

All of this is to say, is to be careful what you wish for as fans. Twins fans had a borderline playoff team and playoff roster with young stars. Now, the fans have an organization in flux, with an uncertain short and long-term outlook.

[jay87shot]

The consensus seems to be to trade Black before he loses to much value. What about instead of trading low on Black we trade high on an OF like Perkins and make Black the 4th OF? I think the general consensus has been that Black will be a good OF and his bat would offer more power and upside than Perkins. While Perkins is cheap and affordable we could get good value from a team that highly values defense. I could see the Blue Jays, Rays, and Phillies being great options among others

1)Perkins and Devin for Spencer Horowitz, Orelvis Martinez (Will Wagner preferably), and OF Alan Roden

We get a 1B platoon, 3B option and a near the bigs upside OF.

2) Perk and Devin for C Eduardo Tait, P Mick Abel, and SS Starlyn Caba

I am off Bohm until I see the price come down, this is just 3 solid high potential prospects for the Phillies 2 biggest needs.

3) Perk, Peguero, and P CarGo to the Rays for Yandy Diaz maybe small 2nd piece

This would require Rhys to be moved but the Rays get 3 solid (cheap) pieces and save money we get a greatly needed bat to replace Willy with a couple years of affordable control.

If you want you could make any of the Sal instead of Perk and add a little more value coming back.

[jay87shot]

While I am out here throwing out ideas what about Willson Contreras at 1B, if we could move Rhys cheaply I could see it working. I will be the 1st to admit I am not a big Willson fan, however his bat has been sneaky good .264/.380/.468 and he wouldn't cost much. I don't know if I am a huge believer in him at 1st but I could see him being a Carlos Santana style defender at 1st in time. It would likely be good for William and maybe motivates him to accept a cheaper extension. 

[Scooterfletcher]

Perkins for Baty might work as Stearns values defense quite highly.   That could definitely be a win-win based trade.

And absolutely no to Contreras at first.   Trade him before moving him to first (but keep him this year and trade him next off season).