jay87shot’s 2025 Payroll Blueprint: Jay87shot Dream offseason and payroll

[jay87shot]

1) Williams and Chad Patrick for Alec Bohm

2)Rhys to NYY for Nestor Cortes

3)Black, Peguero, and Tate Kuehner for Yandy Diaz

4)Hoby to Tex for lower level prospect

1)LF Chourio 2)C Contreras 3)DH Yeli 4)1B Diaz 5)3B Bohm 6) CF Mitchell 7)2B Turang 8) SS Ortiz 9)RF Frelick

• C: William Contreras ($7.60M)
• 1B: Yandy Diaz ($10.00M)
• 2B: Joey Ortiz ($0.80M)
• 3B: Alec Bohm ($8.1M)
• SS: Brice Turang ($0.80M)
• LF: Jackson Chourio ($4.25M)
• CF: Garrett Mitchell ($0.80M)
• RF: Sal Frelick ($0.80M)
• DH: Christian Yelich ($24.25M)
• 4th OF: Blake Perkins ($0.80M)
• Utility: Andrew Monasterio ($0.80M)
• Utility: Dunn/Collins/EMJ ($0.80M)
• Backup C: Eric Hasse ($1.80M)
• NA: Add Dead Money Here ($8.75M)
• SP1: Freddy Peralta ($8.25M)
• SP2: Aaron Civale ($8.00M)
• SP3: Tobias Myers ($0.77M)
• SP4: Brandon Woodruff ($5.00M)
• SP5: Nestor Cortez ($8.30M)
• RP: Bryan Hudson ($0.80M)
• RP: Trevor Megill ($2.00M)
• RP: Nick Mears ($0.90M)
• RP: Jared Koenig ($0.80M)
• RP: Craig Yoho ($0.80M)
• RP: Joel Payamps ($2.80M)
• RP: DL Hall ($0.8M)
• RP: Aaron Ashby ($3.45M)
• NA: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M)

Payroll is 13.06% under budget

[Frisbee Slider]

Rhys objectively is without value or wins above replacement for now and Cortes is a very useful starting pitcher. 

Not sure Yankees go for it.

[jay87shot]

I will say that I didn't look at Cortez's stats and thought he had a rougher year in the 4's era. I definitely would need to add a decent prospect for that deal. 

[BigWoo53]

Not very likely the Brewers make 3 trades like that in one offseason. Would dig the Bohm deal. 

If they don't get a 3B via trade, I would try and sign Kim from the Padres to play 3B or SS and at least have the option to have Ortiz stay at 3B. 

Then I would like to sign a SP maybe to an incentive laden deal. Buehler is unlikely but I wonder what a Bieber off TJ surgery would get? I hope the Brewers inquire anyway but find a way to at least get a depth SP. 

[Jopal78]

The Brewer colored glasses are alive and well! 

The Phillies drafted Bohm 3rd overall in 2018, stuck with him as he struggled. He blossomed into an All Star player, was 4th on their team in PAs this past season and with two more years of team control— now they’re going to trade him for a free agent to be closer and a journeyman minor league pitcher!? No way. 
 

 

[CheeseheadInQC]

40 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

The Brewer colored glasses are alive and well! 

The Phillies drafted Bohm 3rd overall in 2018, stuck with him as he struggled. He blossomed into an All Star player, was 4th on their team in PAs this past season and with two more years of team control— now they’re going to trade him for a free agent to be closer and a journeyman minor league pitcher!? No way. 
 

 

I don’t see the issue.

1. He is rumored to be on the block and was playing poorly enough in the second half that he was benched for a playoff game.

2. They are a large market win now team, so chances are they aren’t dealing him for prospects.

3. How many better win now pieces do you think are going to be available for him, especially in a two-team deal?

[Frisbee Slider]

There are a lot of rumors suggesting Bohm may be traded. 

Devin has 1.83 ERA over 235 IP, which is among the best relievers in recent memory. 

The Phillies’ bullpen was underwhelming in the regular season and terrible in the playoffs. A trade might make sense if 2025 is an important year for Philadelphia.

[sveumrules]

Bohm blossomed for one month last year with a 184 wRC+ and 1.8 WAR in April followed by a 96 wRC+ (way more in line with his 103 career mark) and 1.7 WAR from May thru the end of the year. His September was particularly brutal with a 37 wRC+.

Williams has 9.3 rWAR and +14.24 WPA for his career. Bohm has 7.7 WAR.

Looking at the last two years, even with the missed time, Devin still comes in at 4.3 rWAR and +6.18 WPA compared to 5.0 WAR for Alec.

Phillies are also rumored to be in on Bregman which could free them up to move Bohm.

Ultimately the math comes down to two years of Bohm projected for about 5.0 WAR total at say around $20M in Arby’s is something like $30M in excess value at $10M per win.

In his last two full seasons Devin put up +3.46 and +4.09 WPA. If you value him at 3.5 wins with an $8M award in Arby’s that comes out to $27M in excess value.

[Jopal78]

55 minutes ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

I don’t see the issue.

1. He is rumored to be on the block and was playing poorly enough in the second half that he was benched for a playoff game.

2. They are a large market win now team, so chances are they aren’t dealing him for prospects.

3. How many better win now pieces do you think are going to be available for him, especially in a two-team deal?

Sure, but do the Phillies have a proven replacement at 3B to soak up 600+ PAs in ‘25 (and ‘26) at 3.0 WAR level production? Plus Williams is a 60 inning rental before he tests free agency after ‘25. 

The Phillies future goals are as a perennial World Series contender, in that context it does not make sense for them to create a hole in one part of their roster in order to patch another for what almost certainly would be one season. (Not to mention Williams in a very small  has struggled mightily in the playoffs being unable to finish the inning in 2 of his 3 appearances).

Isn’t it more likely they simply sign Clay Holmes or other high leverage relievers and keep Bohm? Seems to me that aligns more with their future goals though it hurts them in the short run with luxury tax payments. 

Next, even assuming the Phillies are looking to trade him for bullpen help. Devin Williams is a highly paid free agent to be. Seems to me the Phillies initial targets would most likely be players with equal or greater control remaining than Bohm and lower salaries so if they do weaken their lineup and infield they gain some benefit in the short run with less payroll susceptible to the luxury tax.  

As for Patrick, he’s a little guy (6’1” 205) with his 3rd organization since ‘21. His K/9, GB% and FB% didn’t change much from last year but the BABiP against him dropped tremendously to .267 and he wins the AAA pitching triple crown. Seems like a midnight pumpkin rather than a prospect sweetener to a contending  club. 

[jay87shot]

10 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Sure, but do the Phillies have a proven replacement at 3B to soak up 600+ PAs in ‘25 (and ‘26) at 3.0 WAR level production? Plus Williams is a 60 inning rental before he tests free agency after ‘25. 

The Phillies future goals are as a perennial World Series contender, in that context it does not make sense for them to create a hole in one part of their roster in order to patch another for what almost certainly would be one season. 

Isn’t it more likely they simply sign Clay Holmes or other high leverage relievers and keep Bohm? Seems to me that aligns more with their future goals though it hurts them in the short run with luxury tax payments. 

Next, even assuming the Phillies are looking to trade him for bullpen help. Devin Williams is a highly paid free agent to be. Seems to me the Phillies initial targets would most likely be players with equal or greater control remaining than Bohm and lower salaries so if they do weaken their lineup and infield they gain some benefit in the short run with less payroll susceptible to the luxury tax.  

As for Patrick, he’s a little guy (6’1” 205) with his 3rd organization since ‘21. His K/9, GB% and FB% didn’t change much from last year but the BABiP against him dropped tremendously to .267 and he wins the AAA pitching triple crown. Seems like a midnight pumpkin rather than a prospect sweetener to a contending  club. 

The Phillies have Stott, Turner, and Sosa and as mentioned before are seriously looking at Bregman. Turner needs a position change, defensively he is one of the worst SS. In theory they could be in on Willy or Kim as well but I haven't seen any rumors like that. 

The Phillies probably will sign a couple relievers but Clay Holmes isn't/shouldn't be a closer on a world series team. Devin is unquestionably a top 3 closer in the game and Bohm is maybe a borderline top 10 3B depending on who you ask.

I don't think anyone truly knows what the secondary pieces in a Bohm/Williams deal would be but they are pretty close in overall value as sveumrules pointed out and there is a 2 way needs match.

 

[Jopal78]

9 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

The Phillies have Stott, Turner, and Sosa and as mentioned before are seriously looking at Bregman. Turner needs a position change, defensively he is one of the worst SS. In theory they could be in on Willy or Kim as well but I haven't seen any rumors like that. 

The Phillies probably will sign a couple relievers but Clay Holmes isn't/shouldn't be a closer on a world series team. Devin is unquestionably a top 3 closer in the game and Bohm is maybe a borderline top 10 3B depending on who you ask.

I don't think anyone truly knows what the secondary pieces in a Bohm/Williams deal would be but they are pretty close in overall value as sveumrules pointed out and there is a 2 way needs match.

 

You could be right… I hope you are. 
 

I don’t really care what the WAR translated into dollar value is. That’s fun to argue about on a message board , but real life trades don’t come together based upon a surplus value equation with amorphous variables.

I think you’re over valuing Williams and under valuing Bohm which isn’t surprising given it’s a Brewers fan site. Hopefully if that swap is actually possible the Brewers jump on it immediately. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

You'd have to sweeten the deal for Cortes, no doubt.

But overall, I think this team is quite good and it comes in under the 2024 payroll. Nice.

[MNBrew]

I'd do your #4 trade.  Toby's gotta have value to someone.  He had it here in spades for a while, but not anymore.  I'm surprised he's still here -- though maybe not by week's end when the tender deadline happens.

[BigWoo53]

I think Kim is a possibility at 3B/SS. I could see a trade and maybe signing Goldschmidt. Not sure he has much left in the tank though. I also think Hoskins could have a major bounce back year now that he has a full season under his belt after the ACL tear. 

I think the Brewers should sign a SP for sure as there are a lot of options but a lot of question marks as well. Woodruff, how does shoulder respond and how many innings can you reasonably expect? Ashby and Hall both could be rotation guys but Ashby in particular I think is a pen guy. Go with young guys like Henderson/Rodriguez/Patrick to round out rotation? I would like to see another arm added to the mix a reliable starter.