LouisEly's umpteenth annual Green Bay Packers draft preview and predictions, 2025 edition

[LouisEly]

This is one of the hardest ones to predict because it seems like there are a ton of guys at positions of need projected to go in that 20-60 range.  I could see a dozen guys going to the Packers with their 2nd round pick who could realistically be available.

One of the biggest things that this draft hinges on is their perception of the CB room.  Do they really want Jaire to stay, or is he just there if GB gets skunked out of the CBs they like in the draft?  What do they think of Kalen King and Kamal Hadden, two late round picks in the draft last year?  Do they consider any late day 3 CBs to be significantly better than King or Hadden?

Here we go…

1st Round (#23):  Derrick Harmon, DT, Oregon – The Packers want to improve their pass rush, and there is no better interior rusher than Harmon who led the nation with 55 pressures among IDL and his 10.7% pressure rate was 2nd among all IDL.  He also had one of the best rush defense grades, and was the only IDL with a PFF grade >80 for both pass rush and run stopping.  Checks all the boxes, and has been compared by some to a young but larger Cameron Heyward, but does have some bad weight on him.  The Packers sent everyone but the janitor to Oregon’s pro day for a reason.  DT is a need as Slaton left in free agency, they have a 5th year option decision on Wyatt, and Clark is due $20M in cash in 2026 with the Packers already up to $270M in cap obligations for 2026.  (Replaces T.J. Slaton)
If he’s still available:  Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State – You know a guy is a good WR when he finishes his career as Ohio State’s all-time leader in receptions and yards considering not just the talent that has come through there but the talent he had to beat out just to get on the field.  Has a master’s degree in route running and consistently creates separation with crisp routes and varying his route tempo to keep DBs off-balance.  Ohio State demands that their WRs be good run blockers, and Egbuka demanded that from himself as well as the younger guys in the WR room.  Team leader who put the team’s needs above himself.  4x All-Big Ten.  He’s as pro-ready as any WR in the draft.
Don’t be surprised if it’s:  Nic Scourton, DE, Texas A&M – at first glance, the numbers last season weren’t super impressive (5 sacks, 14 TFLs).  But then you look deeper, and see that A&Ms scheme was designed to stop the run first.  And that Scourton was a teenager a week before the 2024 season started.  And that the film shows a lot of chipping and doubling.  And that the reason he was chipped and doubled so much was because the year before he was wrecking shop in the Big Ten as a legit teenager, leading the conference in sacks as a true sophomore.  He did what the A&M coaches asked – he was asked to stop the run first, and he did that and was disruptive in the backfield with 14 TFLs.  Physical, electric rusher with tremendous change of direction who can create havoc on all three downs.  I think he’s one of those players who was held back by the system that he played in; the tape at Purdue the year before tells a more accurate story.  Finalist for the Lott IMPACT trophy, and at his pro day was seen talking extensively with Packers personnel.

2nd Round (#54):  Darien Porter, CB, Iowa State – Porter only has one year of starting experience, but that’s because he started as a WR at ISU before moving to CB in 2022.  He brings that WR experience to the position though, along with a jaw-dropping amount of size and athleticism.  At 6’3”, 195, Porter has WR size and length that could make an OL blush (33+” arms, 80” wingspan) and ran a 4.30 40 with a 1.49 10-yard split, a 6.71 3-cone (2nd among all players at the combine), and 4.04 short shuttle, agility numbers you rarely see from someone his height.  As for production, he blanketed receivers to the point where, despite his lack of experience, he was only targeted 17 times and allowed only 5 receptions while snagging 3 INTs.  Yes, he had almost as many INTs as completions given up.  Showed excellent instincts in zone coverage, which Hafley primarily employs, and also excelled on special teams with five career blocked kicks.  Older than ideal, and tackling was a bit inconsistent, but he’s a rare specimen at CB with an overall RAS of 9.99; only three CBs since 1987 have had a higher RAS.  Signing Hobbs means that the Packers don’t need an immediate starter, so they can let someone with the extremely high upside of Porter develop for a year.  (Replaces Eric Stokes)
If he’s still available:  Jayden Higgins, WR, Iowa State – Higgins might be the ideal WR for what the Packers are looking for.  Has the size (6’4’, 214”) they like, and showed his athleticism at the combine (4.47 40, 39” vertical, 9.61 RAS).  Productive, too, accumulating almost 3,000 career yards and fared well against both zone (top 8%) and man (top 13%) coverage, and stood out at the Senior Bowl.  Smooth but physical in his routes and creates separation with force and strength, and is a menace on contested catches and jump balls.  Doesn’t sink his hips well for sudden stops and cuts, and operated on a limited route tree.  WRs have tended to get drafted higher than ranked lately, and if the Packers trade down and out of the first round to the early 2nd he could definitely be the target.  
Don’t be surprised if it’s:  Jordan Burch, DE, Oregon – Big DE (6’4”, 279) with long arms who can line up all along the DL and play a big end on running downs and slide inside on passing downs.  Has excellent bend for a bigger end with good get-off as well as the strength to bull rush and cave in pockets.  Knows when and how to get his hands up, knocking down six passes last season and 10 in the last three years.  Finally put things together his senior year after reshaping his body before getting injured, recording 8.5 sacks, 11 TFLs, and 32 pressures in only 10 games.  Basketball background, moves extremely well for his size (watch the clip of him running a fake punt), and was #10 on Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List.  Needs to play with better decisiveness and urgency as a run defender.  

3rd Round (#87):  Tory Horton, WR, Colorado State – Horton was 1st team all Mountain West and fifth in FBS with 96 receptions to go along with 1,183 receiving yards in 2023 and then became a cautionary tale about going back to school as he injured his knee and played in only 6 games in 2024.  Has proven he’s recovered showing good speed at the combine (4.41) with a 37.5” vertical.  Instinctive route runner with a feel for burst timing, and he rarely drops what is thrown his way.  Natural deep ball tracker from his experience playing centerfield in baseball.  Also an accomplished punt returner, and despite playing 5 years in college is still only 22 years old.  Not the strongest WR, as press corners are likely to slow him and take a bite out of his effectiveness.  I remember watching him back in 2023 and being very impressed with his ability to get open… and very confused as to why he went back to school.  (Replaces Christian Watson)
If he’s still available:  Nohl Williams, CB, Cal – long CB with big INT totals, Williams snagged 7 INTs in 2024 and 14 for his career.  Excellent instincts with eagerness from zone, able to make breaks on the throw.  Also physical at the line of scrimmage, leveraging his size to play good press man and disrupt WRs off the line.  Has returned kicks and punts and scored TDs in three ways in 2024 – INT return, fumble return, and kickoff return.  Not explosive, adequate athleticism, missed 14 tackles in 2023 (but cleaned that up to only 3 in 2024), but can be a ballhawk in Hafley’s heavy zone scheme.
Don’t be surprised if it’s: Dylan Fairchild, OG, Georgia – Second team All American, member of Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List, and former high school wrestler who went 67-0, Fairchild’s wrestling background shows in him consistently winning the leverage battle and welcoming anyone who wants to meet him in a phone booth.  Excels at both run and pass blocking and was charged with only one sack and one hit the last two seasons in over 800 pass block snaps, with the sack due to him not picking up a blitz; he was never beaten one-on-one.  As a run blocker, he’s quick off the snap and has great grip strength, and when he gets his hands on you you’re likely going for a ride; just ask Kentucky’s top DT prospect Deone Walker, who Fairchild relocated to a different zip code.  Can play too high out of his stance and needs to improve footwork and hand placement, but is still only 21 years old and has plenty of room to develop.  With the Packers investing heavily in Banks it makes this pick less likely, but Fairchild has played both sides of the line and with Rhyan a free agent after 2025, with Elgton Jenkins set to make $20M in cash in 2026, and with the poor performance of Telfort and Glover in the playoffs, the Pack may want better depth in 2025 with someone ready to step in and start in 2026.

4th Round (#124):  Quincy Riley, CB, Louisville – Riley transferred up from Middle Tennessee State and in his three years at Louisville notched eight INTs, defensed 27 passes, and was second team All-ACC in 2024.  Gave up only 43% completion rate in those three seasons, highlighted by a 37 passer rating against in 2023 and a 23 passer rating against in 2022.  Average height, but good length (31” arms) and good recovery speed.  Needs to be more physical and better in run support, but he’s a ball hawk and Hafley likes guys who can take the ball away.  Packers had success with the last CB they drafted from Louisville, and unless the Packers really like Kalen King and Kamal Hadden, I think they double-dip at CB so that they feel more comfortable moving on from Jaire Alexander and the $17.5M in cash he’s due.  (Replaces Corey Ballentine/potentially Jaire Alexander)
If he’s still available:  Ty Robinson, DT, Nebraska – Bully built for the trenches, Robinson was a force in the middle of Nebraska’s line and took a big step forward with his production in 2024 with 7 sacks and 12 TFLs.   Hot motor who is quick off the line with a bull rush that has put many guards in the QB’s lap.  Played everywhere along the line from 0-tech to 5-tech and helped anchor Nebraska’s best rushing defense since joining the Big Ten.  Can struggle to maintain his pad level at his height (6’5”), has somewhat short arms, and came in surprisingly light at the combine (288 lbs) which could create questions about if he can still be that anchor in the middle of the DL.
Don’t be surprised if it’s:  Isaac TeSlaa, WR, Arkansas – former 0-star wing-T QB at a small Christian high school in Michigan, TeSlaa followed in his father’s footsteps and went to Hillsdale College where he transitioned to WR and became the 2022 Great Midwest Athletic Conference Offensive Player of the Year.  He then hit the portal and had no shortage of offers to choose from (including Wisconsin) and went to Arkansas.  His athleticism stood out from day one, earning a spot on Bruce Feldman’s Freaks list, and he backed it up at the combine, running a 4.43 with a 39.5” vertical, 6.85 3-cone, and 4.05 shuttle – at 6’4”, 214, good for a 9.97 RAS and the 11th best RAS score among 3,441 WRs.  Wasn’t the most productive WR at Arkansas, but averaged 19 ypc, has huge hands and a big catch radius, and was willing to do the dirty work as a blocker; he does not shy away from contact and puts safeties, LBs, and corners on notice.  Didn’t develop the route tree and route-running nuances at Hillsdale and Arkansas, and while he can bench 315 he was primarily used in the slot and thus defeating press with hands into his frame is not an area he’s been developed in.  Looked really good at the Senior Bowl – and the Packers tend to pick players who looked good at the Senior Bowl – and he has the skill set that a creative offensive mind could turn into a star with his run game assets and building quick targets against conflict defenders off of it.

5th Round (#159):  Dalton Cooper, OT, Oklahoma State – Cooper spent four years at Texas State before transferring to Oklahoma State where he started at LT the last two years with two starts at RT and played RT at the Shrine Bowl.  57-game starter in his career who didn’t allow a sack in 285 pass block snaps in 2024, but missed three games with injury.  Showed excellent athleticism at their pro day, running a sub-5.00 40 with a good short-shuttle time for a 9.07 RAS.  Good pass blocker, understands footwork, team leader, and held his own against some talented rushers, but an older prospect and not as good of a run blocker.   (Replaces Andre Dillard)
If he’s still available:  Elijah Roberts, DE, SMU – another Miami transfer who went to SMU, Roberts flourished in two season there accumulating 17.5 sacks, 24 TFLs, 4 forced fumbles, and over 130 pressures.  Great size and length (6’4”, 285, 82” wingspan), Roberts played standing up on the edge but does not have the athleticism to play standing up in the NFL.  Effectively sets the edge with good technique including good knee bend and a wide base.  Elite pass rush win rate of 22%, but doesn’t show good change of direction or bend.  Can be a good rotational player playing DE on run downs and moving inside on passing downs, especially if the Packers draft a smaller situational edge rusher.
Don’t be surprised if it’s:  Seth McLaughlin, OC, Ohio State – first team consensus All-American and Rimington Trophy winner, McLaughlin has started for two powerhouse programs at both Ohio State and Alabama.  Highly intelligent (graduated Summa *** Laude in 2.5 years from Alabama with a 4.00 grade point average), good grit and core strength, and has the range and radar to pull effectively.  In three seasons was credited with only one sack and five hits, likely because he went up against NFL-caliber DTs in practice every day at two different schools.  Tore his Achilles late in the season and will likely miss most if not all of 2025, but that’s OK – Green Bay has plenty of options for center in 2024 (Jenkins, Rhyan, Monk, and even a HOF-caliber emergency option in Tom), but Tom and Rhyan will be free agents after 2025 and Jenkins is due $20M in cash in 2026, so McLaughlin can go on IR and rehab/develop for a year before he is needed.  The Packers like centers from Ohio State.

6th Round (#198):  John Williams, T/G, Cincinnati – two year starter at LT with below-average height but good length (34” arms) and huge hands (11”).  Adequate athleticism, and only gave up one sack and one hit in 460 pass block snaps last season.  Better pass blocker than run blocker and has some questions about holding up against a bull rush, but quieted some of those concerns with 29 reps on the bench.  Looked good at the Shrine Bowl.  Most are projecting to guard, but the Packers have done very well with OTs who have below-average height and they also like interior OLs who have experience at LT.  (Competes with Telfort and Glover for roster spot)
If he’s still available:  Jared Harrison-Hunte, DT, SMU - 6th year senior who followed Rhett Lashlee to SMU from Miami and blossomed into a 1st team all-ACC season with 6.5 sacks and 8.5 TFLs.  Uses the feet of a former basketball player with an unpredictable rush tempo and relentless motor to be a menace for guards in pass protection.  A bit undersized, but does not get pushed around a lot in the run game.    Doesn’t have the ideal size or length and is likely confined to a 3-tech, but can be a rotational pass rusher with the ability to penetrate and create chaos inside.
Don’t be surprised if it’s:  Jackson Hawes, TE, Georgia Tech – former 2nd Team All-Ivy Leaguer at Yale, Hawes spent his final year at Georgia Tech as a thump-and-drive TE and lead/move blocker.  Salty demeanor with a steady diet of physicality, Hawes is basically an extension of the OL who can explode into targets and dig them out as well as provide solid technique in pass protection.  Limited route runner and pass catcher, not the most athletic, but could make a very good blocking TE in the Packers run offense.
 

7th round (#237):  Teddye Buchanan, LB, Cal – former transfer from UC-Davis, Buchanan showed he belonged in the P-4 as he was selected 1st team All ACC.  Athletic in space, Buchanan can be a good cover LB in man or zone but, despite leading the team in tackles, has below-average play recognition and has a tendency to get covered up and stuck in the trees.  Can be a good special teams player and cover LB, with some of the Packers current LBs not strong in pass coverage.  (Competes with Kristian Welch for roster spot)
If he’s still available – Jason Marshall Jr., CB, Florida – 39-game starter in the SEC with good size, length, and athleticism, Marshall had his 2024 season cut short by a shoulder injury.  Lots of PBUs on tape, gave up less than 50% completions when targeted in his career, but only two INTs in his career and gave up a lot of big plays with over 24 yards per completion in 2023 and over 17 in 2024.  Boom or bust, and has a tendency to get suckered in by play fakes and misdirection.
Don’t be surprised if it’s: Cam Horsley, DT, Boston College – one of the better run-stoppers in college football this past season, there is familiarity as Hafley was Horsley’s DC back at BC.  Showed good athleticism at their pro day, running a 5.04 with a 3-cone of 7.67.  Strong at the point of attack, has a wide, strong base to anchor, and gets off the line with good violence.  Doesn’t offer much for pass rush.

7th Round (#250):  Bryson Green, WR, Wisconsin – perhaps no player in college football helped himself more on his pro day than Green did when he checked in at 6’3”, 213, and ran a 4.48 40, had a 39” vertical and a 10’11” broad jump, and made an impressive one-handed leaping catch in pass drills.  No agility info, but his measurables translated into a 9.97 RAS and on size & athletic testing is eerily similar to Jayden Higgins.  Lack of production is easily explained by two years of a backup QB in a dysfunctional offense directed by an OC who was fired before the end of last season, and Green missed four games with injuries last season.  (Competes with Bo Melton/Malik Heath for roster spot)
If he’s still available:  Jalin Conyers, TE, Texas Tech – multi-faceted athlete who can run, catch, and throw, Conyers has experience as both a TE as well as operating out of the wildcat at both Arizona State and Texas Tech.  Second Team All-Big 12, Conyers had 5 receiving TDs, 2 rushing TDs, and a passing TD last season.  Has good build-up speed, ball skills, and size for a TE, but the run blocking runs hot and cold and conditioning has been an issue at times.  MLF has used Tucker Kraft in some creative ways, and Conyers could be another weapon to use in multiple roles.
Don’t be surprised if it’s:  Addison West, OG/C, Western Michigan – raise your hand if you have ever heard of Addison West.  Now, raise your other hand if you knew that he was a consensus first-team All American this past season.  Western Michigan’s first ever Walter Camp first team All-American and anchor of an OL that cleared lanes for over 2,200 rushing yards from three backs.  Brings an old-school nastiness to the run game and works combo blocks like a 10-year veteran.  Not only a good run blocker, West didn't surrender a single sack during his senior season while earning PFF's highest guard grade in college football.  Biggest issue is lack of length and mass as he’s only 6’3”, 300; he has started games at OC and may have to move to OC permanently to make it in the NFL and even then there are questions if he can hold up to big NFL nose tackle bull rushes.  Could try to stash on the practice squad for a year to see if he can make it at center with the ability to play guard if needed.

UDFAs:
Esa Pole, OT, Washington State
Tyler Elsbury, OG, Iowa
Jacob Bayer, OC, Arkansas State
Avery Boyd, TE/H-Back, Georgia Tech
Taylor Elgersma, QB, Wilfrid Laurier (Canada)
Peny Boone, RB/FB, UCF
Dalevon Campbell, WR, South Carolina
Landon Parker, WR, Troy

Coziah Izzard, DT, Penn State
Johnny Walker II, Edge, Missouri
Ty Wise, LB, Miami (OH)
Nick Jackson, LB, Iowa
Jack Henderson, S, Minnesota
Micah Robinson, CB, Tulane

[patrickgpe]

Thanks, I have been coming here daily looking for this. Its a tradition that you got yourself stuck into :)

[Joseph Zarr]

Incredible. 

Let me just say, I've never tried crack. BUT, as someone about to fly and then drive to GB to attend the NFL draft, I have to imagine this is what crack feels like. I don't know. Is it a stretch? I don't know! I've never tried crack!

[CheezWizHed]

9 hours ago, Joseph Zarr said:

Incredible. 

Let me just say, I've never tried crack. BUT, as someone about to fly and then drive to GB to attend the NFL draft, I have to imagine this is what crack feels like. I don't know. Is it a stretch? I don't know! I've never tried crack!

Blink twice if you need help!...

 

Nice job as always @LouisEly

[bigred]

After watching videos of him, I REALLY want them to draft the DE from Boston College in the first rd. That dude is a beast. 

[BrewerFan]

6 hours ago, bigred said:

After watching videos of him, I REALLY want them to draft the DE from Boston College in the first rd. That dude is a beast. 

He'd be more of a pass rush specialist than a starting DE. 

That's not the worst thing in the world. Pearce from UT is kinda in that same group, but I'm not sure they'd take one at #23 who will just play passing downs, but being from BC, it's more likely than normal.

Here's Pearce. Not necessarily advocating for one or the other...though Pearce looks like he's got more room to fill out and grow, but his SEC experience is a big check in his column. Not as big as being coached by Hafley already, but...still.   

Two guys who I think fit the Packers needs, Darius Alexander, DT Toledo in the 2nd. He's older, so he may go later, but he's a stud.

Dont'e Thornton Jr WR, Tenn. He's a freak athlete. 6'5, 4.3 40. Played in that gimmicky offense at Tennessee. He'll probably get over-drafted, but if he's there in the 4th, that'd be a great pick. 

I think he's a better version of MVS(which...is kinda what Watson has been thus far). I don't think that's a bad thing though. He's thicker and he catches the ball a lot cleaner than Watson or MVS...but none of the Tennessee guys come out real polished. At least not QB/WR. But he's a Day1 Deep Threat who can open up the middle of the field, he can also run a lot of the quick hitters they tried to run with Watson. But primarily a deep threat. 

[BrewerFan]

On 4/15/2025 at 9:52 PM, LouisEly said:

Showed excellent instincts in zone coverage, which Hafley primarily employs

 

Hafley has been pretty clear about a desire to play a lot of press man as well though(as has Matt LaFleur).

Quote

Hafley has expressed a preference for press-man coverage, stating, "Not every snap, but I like press people"

And MLF end of season;

Quote

"I thought there was an incredible amount of growth, to be honest with you," LaFleur said. "A vision of what we wanted to do and where we went to were kind of two different things.

What did he want to do?

Quote

Matt LaFleur and defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley have a clear expectation that Hafley will implement a more aggressive, man-coverage-heavy scheme.

This on top of...countless comments from LaFleur over the years where he'd push Barry to play more aggressive, play more "sticky," which... means play more man coverage.

 

They still finished top ~10 in Man Coverage and that was with Jaire was in and out of the lineup and the pass rush wasn't getting home.

But just right out of the gate last year vs the Eagles, they played Cover 0 about half as much in that game as they played the entire year before under Barry. They also played a decent chunk of Cover1 Man and C2 Man.

 

There were other factors, but the pre-snap look he favors is a single high man. They ended up rotating into Cover 2 Zone a lot last year, but it's not a great disguise unless you...actually play man. 

 

That's not to say Porter can't develop into a VERY good CB, but to spend the 54th pick on a guy who is already 24 years old at a position where longevity isn't great and you don't anticipate him to play for a year?

Which brings me to...

On 4/15/2025 at 9:52 PM, LouisEly said:

Signing Hobbs means that the Packers don’t need an immediate starter, so they can let someone with the extremely high upside of Porter develop for a year. 

 

In all likelihood, the Packers depth chart at CB right now(with the assumption that Jaire is traded, likely during the draft or cut if they can't find a trade that works, but in any event, it seems unlikely he's brought back). That leaves;

CB1-CB-Nixon-Primarily a slot CB until moved there last year out of necessity as much as anything, but certainly not a prototypical boundary CB.
CB2-Nate Hobbs-Primarily a Slot CB
CB3-Valentine-He can play outside, but didn't really take a 2nd year jump. 
Slot-Bullard was primarily used as a slot CB. 

(and then Riley...who I do like in Rd4).

That's 3 guys who are at their best in the slot or at least have played primarily slot and Valentine, a 7th rd pick who looks like he's got some talent, but not a sure thing and there is a big drop off after him.

Kamal Haden, Isaiah Dunn, both guys who were cut and the Packers picked up this off-season. 

If you were bringing Jaire back, that would change the equation a bit, but if you're assuming he's gone, and it seems like most are, you're either abandoning the shift Hafley and MLF talked about, shift to more of a Tampa 2 type defense or even a Cover 3(which Porter is a great fit in). Or it's possible they just think Porter can be coached to use his long arms better, but either way, as our 2nd Rd pick, I don't know that you can take a CB at arguably our thinnest position and say we don't really need him because of Nate Hobbs in his rookie year.

LaFleur also commented about how Hafley did a good job of adjusting to his personnel, but if you're going out and acquiring that personnel, I'd hope you'd target the type of players who fit what Hafley has said he wants to do.

 

I like Porter...but you're getting a project who's already turned 24, has limited experience at CB and he's going to be our 2nd pick and not expect to play?

 

DT-Grant, Nolan or Harmon in Rd 1 all make sense. Rd 2-3, Alexander, Collins, Lott, Turner, Walker(maybe late Rd3)
CB-Rd 1, Will Johnson...if he does slide down the board would be a relatively obvious pick. Revel has similar elite athleticism, but also is much more physical in press. Amos is also a guy in that 1st rd Range who has more experience in press man.

RD2-I think CBs like Hairston(21), Morrison(21), Thomas...might fit the Packers a bit better if they fall to the 2nd rd...and they're all younger...as compared to Riley and Porter who are both ~24 years old. Thomas is one of the younger players and won't turn 21 for a few months yet. They're all guys who can play zone...obviously, zone is just easier, but they all have more experience playing in press man schemes.

Edge-If Stewart is there, I think that'll be their pick. Again, 6'6 290 with his athletic ability? Williams from UGA is...in the same boat. He's the obvious pick, both are gone. 
Beyond that, Mike Green would be popular. I think Scourton would be a great pick. He's not 21 yet, he's got natural bend, he should be able to come in and play year one and help with the pass rush and still has room to fill out into a complete edge.
Landon Jackson in the 2nd could be an option.

Pearce and Ezeiuaku could be just pass rush specialist, but they're better fits at 3-4 OLBs.

WR-I don't think this is a great class. Bond just got accused of sexual assault. That's...not something you roll the dice on. I'm sure they've had it investigated, but I don't see him being taken. The kid from AZ will be gone.

I don't think they add one until Day 3 unless there's a perfect fit and I don't think there are many of those. Golden is the only one who could be there in Rd1 that I'd take. He's got the speed, but he's a complete WR....which is why I think he'll be gone.

I like Horton, Thorton Jr and Felton in the 3-4 rd range. They all have good speed and some flaws, but they can help round out the WR'ing core.

OL, there are a ton of great IOL in the first two days. Mbow, 3 UGA guys, 3 Ohio State line, you touched on one of each. If they take one in the first 3 rds, it'll probably be protection against Jenkins or Walker for next year.

Trapilo, the LT from Boston College is a really interesting prospects though  likely gone before we're picking in the fourth anyway. Grey from Oregon STate was one of my favorite prospects last year. OG who can play RT(as a backup). Good late rd option.

Again, I'd consider Simmons from Ohio State in Rd 1. He was a consensus top 10 pick before the ACL. Donovan Jackson reminds me of Elgton Jenkins. He can clearly play OT, but would be a great fit as a OG in the Packers scheme...which I THINK is going to end up being more of a mix of zone and gap when they get Marshawn Lloyd(an underrated "addition" from last year). But I don't think they'll go back to the OL this year. AT least not the first 2 rds.

But I like the UGA IOL. All three, Fairchild, Rateledge and Wilson. Any surprise picks on the OL, especially early would be that pick that gets the fans upset, but they're always forward looking. Jenkins could be in his last year(as Clark could be in HIS last year).

 

The only thing I'm confident about is... the Packers fans will be pissed if we don't draft whoever PFF has graded the highest and people will be ABSOLUTELY positive that we could have traded down and got X player later in the draft with zero consideration to the fact that...maybe teams didn't want to trade up or he's better than PFF thinks. 

[LouisEly]

6 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

Revel has similar elite athleticism, but also is much more physical in press.

Revel is 24, just like Porter.

Unlike Porter, Revel is coming off of a major injury and did not play in a Power 5 conference.  In 1.3 seasons Revel has three INTs - one each against Appalachian State, Old Dominion, and Tulsa.  Revel gave up more completions in three games against Norfolk State, Old Dominion, and Appalachian State in 2024 than Porter did for the entire season.

I think the hype train got a little ahead of Revel and will be very surprised if Revel gets picked before Porter.

[BrewerFan]

2 hours ago, LouisEly said:

Revel is 24, just like Porter.

Unlike Porter, Revel is coming off of a major injury and did not play in a Power 5 conference.  In 1.3 seasons Revel has three INTs - one each against Appalachian State, Old Dominion, and Tulsa.  Revel gave up more completions in three games against Norfolk State, Old Dominion, and Appalachian State in 2024 than Porter did for the entire season.

I think the hype train got a little ahead of Revel and will be very surprised if Revel gets picked before Porter.

Porter had 203 snaps in coverage all year. Revel who did tear his ACL had 138 in just 3 games this year. I'm not sure receptions given up is the best metric. But if you're looking at picks, he had 2 in those 3 games and a passer rating of 48.8.  I don't particularly think that matters either, but 

But more importantly... he appears to be a better fit. You watched both I assume, right? Porter is really not comfortable up on the LOS and Revel is much more comfortable there, playing man. He also obviously sags off and plays zone. 

 

I'm not arguing who is going to go higher...though I think Revel was going to be a pretty easy 1st rd pick based off the last 2 years, but if Hafley still wants to play the type of defense that he and Lafleur said they wanted to play, I think Revel is a better fit and it doesn't make a lot of sense to draft someone who you don't anticipate being able to play in that very scheme. 

 

I like ....Nohl Williams who I think you mentioned, Marshall from Florida, Riley is a good option. Hafley's also a great DB coach...so maybe he'll think he can develop Porter. 

 

[CheezWizHed]

On 4/20/2025 at 7:07 AM, BrewerFan said:

CB1-CB-Nixon-Primarily a slot CB until moved there last year out of necessity as much as anything, but certainly not a prototypical boundary CB.
CB2-Nate Hobbs-Primarily a Slot CB
CB3-Valentine-He can play outside, but didn't really take a 2nd year jump. 
Slot-Bullard was primarily used as a slot CB. 

I think Nixon was moved prior to "necessity".  He and Alexander were meant to be the starting CBs last year... or at least Nixon and Valentine were competing for the starting CB spot with Nixon clearly winning it out.  You could throw Stokes into that conversation too, but regardless, the move outside was intentional and planned; not out of necessity. Nixon's PFF rating matches what I saw last year... and average outside CB.  People keep painting him as nickel only, but he played better outside. 

Valentine (per PFF rankings) actually did slightly better than Nixon. I thought he was a bit worse overall, but played passable especially for a 3rd CB.

Hobbs gets knocked as a slot only player, but he played 2000 snaps in the slot and 800 outside in his career.  He also has much better height and reach than Nixon... it certainly seems like he will be on outside CB (mostly). 

Doesn't really matter if we think the Packers have only slot CBs, they are clearly moving forward with these three players on the outside. That doesn't stop us from drafting another (even first rounder).  But we shouldn't pretend they have no one out there either. 

[BrewerFan]

10 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

I think Nixon was moved prior to "necessity".  He and Alexander were meant to be the starting CBs last year... or at least Nixon and Valentine were competing for the starting CB spot with Nixon clearly winning it out.  You could throw Stokes into that conversation too, but regardless, the move outside was intentional and planned; not out of necessity. Nixon's PFF rating matches what I saw last year... and average outside CB.  People keep painting him as nickel only, but he played better outside. 

He moved out there when they tried to get Bullard and Even Williams into the lineup. 

He had a 62.5 PFF grade in coverage at that time(vs Arizona) and finished the year with a grade of 60.7. So his grade was better in the slot...in coverage. He's an exceptional CB vs the run and on occasion when they send him on a CB blitz. Graded 115th out of 222 CBs in coverage. Nate Hobbs was 102. 

Jaire incidentally was 16th in coverage and Valentine was 22nd. 

So...I'd say it was out of necessity, but I don't think it changes my larger point. You have very little depth at CB and most of their experience has come in the slot...especially if you assume Jaire is gone 

10 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Valentine (per PFF rankings) actually did slightly better than Nixon. I thought he was a bit worse overall, but played passable especially for a 3rd CB.

Valentine is a nice young CB. He'd currently be our #2 with Nixon as our #1(based on last years overall snaps)...

10 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Hobbs gets knocked as a slot only player, but he played 2000 snaps in the slot and 800 outside in his career.  He also has much better height and reach than Nixon... it certainly seems like he will be on outside CB (mostly). 

Yeah, I imagine he'll play outside as well...but all I said was he's been primarily a slot CB. You just posted that he played over 70% of his snaps in the slot. He was in the slot when he was outstanding as a rookie.

They tried him as a boundary CB his 2nd year in the league and he struggled...which prompted the Raiders to move him back to the slot the last part of the year. 

On top of that, he's missed 16 games the past 3 seasons. He plays very aggressively.  

10 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Doesn't really matter if we think the Packers have only slot CBs, they are clearly moving forward with these three players on the outside. That doesn't stop us from drafting another (even first rounder).  But we shouldn't pretend they have no one out there either. 

That's a little hyperbolic, no? I literally listed the players we have who play CB who have any reasonable NFL experience. I even added Bullard, a safety. 

So I don't think I was "pretending" they have no one out there, I'm pointing out it's a major area of need, the lack of depth and how if we're going to draft a guy 54th...it seems unlikely to me that you're going to draft a guy who is largely the antithesis of everything your HC and DC have said they want. And unlike Nixon or Hobbs who are both aggressive, physical in run support, Porter is not that. He's not a strong tackler.

He does excel in other areas of the game that make him a really interesting prospect for the right team, but look at who Gute has drafted, then combine that with what MLF and Hafley have said about what they would LIKE to do on defense(personnel permitting). 

 

I also quoted both Hafley and MLF's desire to play MORE Press Man and Cover1(which was by far Hafley's most consistent pre-snap look) and how LaFleur himself spoke about how Hafley had to adjust to the personnel that was available to him. 

You can't really play Press or Man if your front 4 can't get home and your DBs don't fit that style of play. Jaire...he fits. Revel, Hairston, Thomas, 

 

I can't imagine anyone feeling very comfortable about our CB depth as stands(probably why Louis had 3 CBs  as his choices or in the case or Marshall, "if he's available." 

You acknowledged they could go CB in Rd1. 

 

So I'm not sure what I pointed out that wasn't already obvious...other than not finding Porter to be the best fit for the Packers.

 We have 3 CBs and we're going to need to cover...~1100-1200 snaps from two of them, probably another 800 from a 3rd. 

That's asking 3 guys to stay healthy for 17 and one of the three was above average in coverage last year...Valentine. 

 

I would say looking at the roster, there's no position as thing as CB. At least relative to the expected snaps you ask from your CBs.

At edge, you have LVN...he was a pretty solid pass rusher last year(better than Gary in his first two years). 
Enagbare, Cox Jr had a 72 PFF grade a 72.2 Pass rushing grade...and Mosby, a 5th edge. You play 2 at a time.
DT-Again, 2 at a time. Clark, Wyatt, Brooks, Wooden

But Harmon in Rd 1? Yeah, I love that. 

WR-Similar depth to WR, but we also have guys like Heath and Melton...as well as at least two very good pass catching TEs(when healthy). I like Horton in Rd 3. 

I like Riley in Rd4, Marshall if he's available in Rd 7. Nohl Williams, a heavy press man CB in the middle Rds. 

Those guys are GREAT fits, particularly the last two and I think they are just about perfect for what Hafley likes to do. 

 

 

I just...don't completely agree with the 2nd Rd projection LouisEly gave the Packers. I also have different players I may prefer. Thornton at WR over pretty much everyone else in the middle rds. I liked Morgan, Cooper and Bullard last year. My top 3 in the last mock I posted on here. Right now, it looks like the only one I got right(and the Packers for that matter) was Cooper, the LB from Texas A&M everyone wanted, so not exactly unique. It's just fans throwing out their opinions for fun before the actual draft based on the rosters we have. And we don't even know who may be completely off the Packers board(such as Bond) or who they may love) like Golden). 

[Sixtolezcano]

I believe who and when they draft a CB will depend greatly what they intend to do with their 5th year player options on May 1st. They can decide to extend Walker and Wyatt another year and pay ~$28.5M or renegotiate both contracts multiple years. Gutey mention the other day at his presser tat he wants to keep them both past 2026 which would free up more money in 2025.  This would allow them to retain my dark house starter at CB in 2025, Jaire Alexander. I still find it odd that if Gutey was going to get rid of Jaire he would have done it by now. Either way we should know in the next week how the defensive backfield will play out in 2025 by May 1. I just don’t see the current CBs they have in-house will bode well for their defense without selecting a CB in either the first or second round, unless Gutey has a better plan.

[CheezWizHed]

7 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

He moved out there when they tried to get Bullard and Even Williams into the lineup. 

He had a 62.5 PFF grade in coverage at that time(vs Arizona) and finished the year with a grade of 60.7. So his grade was better in the slot...in coverage. He's an exceptional CB vs the run and on occasion when they send him on a CB blitz. Graded 115th out of 222 CBs in coverage. Nate Hobbs was 102. 

Jaire incidentally was 16th in coverage and Valentine was 22nd. 

So...I'd say it was out of necessity, but I don't think it changes my larger point. You have very little depth at CB and most of their experience has come in the slot...especially if you assume Jaire is gone 

Valentine is a nice young CB. He'd currently be our #2 with Nixon as our #1(based on last years overall snaps)...

Yeah, I imagine he'll play outside as well...but all I said was he's been primarily a slot CB. You just posted that he played over 70% of his snaps in the slot. He was in the slot when he was outstanding as a rookie.

They tried him as a boundary CB his 2nd year in the league and he struggled...which prompted the Raiders to move him back to the slot the last part of the year. 

On top of that, he's missed 16 games the past 3 seasons. He plays very aggressively.  

That's a little hyperbolic, no? I literally listed the players we have who play CB who have any reasonable NFL experience. I even added Bullard, a safety. 

So I don't think I was "pretending" they have no one out there, I'm pointing out it's a major area of need, the lack of depth and how if we're going to draft a guy 54th...it seems unlikely to me that you're going to draft a guy who is largely the antithesis of everything your HC and DC have said they want. And unlike Nixon or Hobbs who are both aggressive, physical in run support, Porter is not that. He's not a strong tackler.

He does excel in other areas of the game that make him a really interesting prospect for the right team, but look at who Gute has drafted, then combine that with what MLF and Hafley have said about what they would LIKE to do on defense(personnel permitting). 

 

I also quoted both Hafley and MLF's desire to play MORE Press Man and Cover1(which was by far Hafley's most consistent pre-snap look) and how LaFleur himself spoke about how Hafley had to adjust to the personnel that was available to him. 

You can't really play Press or Man if your front 4 can't get home and your DBs don't fit that style of play. Jaire...he fits. Revel, Hairston, Thomas, 

 

I can't imagine anyone feeling very comfortable about our CB depth as stands(probably why Louis had 3 CBs  as his choices or in the case or Marshall, "if he's available." 

You acknowledged they could go CB in Rd1. 

 

So I'm not sure what I pointed out that wasn't already obvious...other than not finding Porter to be the best fit for the Packers.

 We have 3 CBs and we're going to need to cover...~1100-1200 snaps from two of them, probably another 800 from a 3rd. 

That's asking 3 guys to stay healthy for 17 and one of the three was above average in coverage last year...Valentine. 

 

I would say looking at the roster, there's no position as thing as CB. At least relative to the expected snaps you ask from your CBs.

At edge, you have LVN...he was a pretty solid pass rusher last year(better than Gary in his first two years). 
Enagbare, Cox Jr had a 72 PFF grade a 72.2 Pass rushing grade...and Mosby, a 5th edge. You play 2 at a time.
DT-Again, 2 at a time. Clark, Wyatt, Brooks, Wooden

But Harmon in Rd 1? Yeah, I love that. 

WR-Similar depth to WR, but we also have guys like Heath and Melton...as well as at least two very good pass catching TEs(when healthy). I like Horton in Rd 3. 

I like Riley in Rd4, Marshall if he's available in Rd 7. Nohl Williams, a heavy press man CB in the middle Rds. 

Those guys are GREAT fits, particularly the last two and I think they are just about perfect for what Hafley likes to do. 

 

 

I just...don't completely agree with the 2nd Rd projection LouisEly gave the Packers. I also have different players I may prefer. Thornton at WR over pretty much everyone else in the middle rds. I liked Morgan, Cooper and Bullard last year. My top 3 in the last mock I posted on here. Right now, it looks like the only one I got right(and the Packers for that matter) was Cooper, the LB from Texas A&M everyone wanted, so not exactly unique. It's just fans throwing out their opinions for fun before the actual draft based on the rosters we have. And we don't even know who may be completely off the Packers board(such as Bond) or who they may love) like Golden). 

I'll succinctly state that it sounded like you were saying we had am immediate need at CB because all we have are slot CBs.  And while they might not be high end CBs, I believe the Packers expect Nixon/Hobbs to be starters on the outside (not saying they can't flex around, but in general). 

We clearly have a depth need at CB and will draft at least one.  If someone falls in our lap in the first round, then we should draft them.  But I suspect we will be "going after" the WR and DL positions priority wise.  

Our offense suffered last year because Watson was the only WR to beat man coverage (Wicks can but couldn't hold onto the ball).  Our defense suffered because QBs had all day to throw the ball...while coverage was actually solid.  

Not to say we should draft for need, but I'd assume that if the rankings are equal, we will be picking WR and DL positions early and look for CB depth later in the draft. 

  

2 hours ago, Sixtolezcano said:

I believe who and when they draft a CB will depend greatly what they intend to do with their 5th year player options on May 1st. They can decide to extend Walker and Wyatt another year and pay ~$28.5M or renegotiate both contracts multiple years. Gutey mention the other day at his presser tat he wants to keep them both past 2026 which would free up more money in 2025.  This would allow them to retain my dark house starter at CB in 2025, Jaire Alexander. I still find it odd that if Gutey was going to get rid of Jaire he would have done it by now. Either way we should know in the next week how the defensive backfield will play out in 2025 by May 1. I just don’t see the current CBs they have in-house will bode well for their defense without selecting a CB in either the first or second round, unless Gutey has a better plan.

I do find it a little odd that he isn't gone yet.  I wish we'd hear from Jaire on his status, but he is wisely/oddly quiet on it so far.  

I really though the DC change last year would've "refreshed" him if the problems were truly attitude driven. 

It either has to be a case where Gute REALLY doesn't want JA to head to the Lions/Vikings/Bears or the media is blowing it up more than we expect.  It is still probably 99-1 odds that he is traded or cut, but who knows...

[JosephC]

1 hour ago, Sixtolezcano said:

I believe who and when they draft a CB will depend greatly what they intend to do with their 5th year player options on May 1st. They can decide to extend Walker and Wyatt another year and pay ~$28.5M or renegotiate both contracts multiple years. Gutey mention the other day at his presser tat he wants to keep them both past 2026 which would free up more money in 2025.  This would allow them to retain my dark house starter at CB in 2025, Jaire Alexander. I still find it odd that if Gutey was going to get rid of Jaire he would have done it by now. Either way we should know in the next week how the defensive backfield will play out in 2025 by May 1. I just don’t see the current CBs they have in-house will bode well for their defense without selecting a CB in either the first or second round, unless Gutey has a better plan.

Tom Silverstein at the Journal-Sentinel had a recent article that the Packers have been shopping Alexander and were close to a deal at one point, but the combination of what they want for him and Alexander being unwilling to take any sort of paycut has prevented a deal from happening.  After subtracting the pro-rated part of his cap number, Alexander would have a 17.5 million cap figure in 2025 and it's pretty unlikely anyone wants to take that on.  He also said something along the lines of the league knows the Packers don't intend on keeping Alexander, which leads me to believe that Alexander is likely gone one way or another.  For awhile I was thinking that Alexander now knows he will have to be on the field in 2025, because if he has another year where he only plays 33% of the snaps, then he will be cut and will be looking at a 1 year, 5 million prove-it type deal (his current contract would pay him 19.5 million in 2026...so a huge difference), and that might be enough for Gutekunst to keep him through 2025.  But Silverstein also brought up the point that there is likely resentment between the Packers and Alexander with what has gone on this off-season.  Silverstein also brought up the possibility of an Alexander/Jalen Ramsey swap but the salary numbers he had in the article do not match up with what overthecap has, and I don't think the Dolphins are in a position to take on Alexander's salary and the dead money hit from Ramsey if this swap were to happen.

Last year I thought there was a decent chance they would take Morgan because there just weren't that many left tackles available later in the draft.  I think Morgan was somewhere around #35-#40 and the Packers took him well above that, and the unavailability of left tackles probably played a role in that.  Packers picks are #23, #54 and #87 in first three rounds.  CB rankings on the most recent board I've assembled-

1 - Travis Hunter

9 - Will Johnson (will go lower IMO, not likely to make it to #23 though)

11 - Jahdae Barron

34 - Maxwell Hairston

37 - Trey Amos

40 - Shavon Revel Jr.

46 - Azareye'h Thomas

47 - Benjamin Morrison

72 - Darien Porter

92 - Jacob Parrish

118 - Quincy Riley

120  - Nohl Williams

So that's my best estimate of where guys will go (recent news of Will Johnson not doing the 40 will push him down).  Look what is there between the Packers second and third round picks (#54 and #87), just one player who warmed the bench for most of his long college career.  I will say that Porter definitely fits the Gute profile, but I think he'd be a horrendous pick at #54.  Then at #87, there are only 3 players in the next 33 "slots" and Parrish is really short (5-9 3/4) but does pass the athletic requirement...personally I like both Riley and Williams but both of those guys might not pass Gutekunst's athlete preference.

Edge rusher, defensive tackle, wide receiver...all positions that should have quality (and quality that fits Gutekunst's preferences) in subsequent rounds.  Cornerback...take one early or you might not get one until round four is a real possibility.

I think chances are very strong that the Packers take a cornerback with their first pick with the way the board currently shapes up.  Hairston and Revel are the two that fits Gutekunst's athletic preferences the best.  My most recent prediction was Revel, only because he has the length that Hairston does not.  I guess Azareye'h Thomas is still in that mix, but I'd consider him the long shot at this point, but still include him because he seems like a good fit for what Hafley wants to do on defense.

Personally, I'm not thrilled with any of the late round one cornerbacks and would rather see them go to another position.  I think WR-Emeka Egbuka has emerged as my personal favorite, we'll see if he makes it to #23 (currently #24 on the board, so it will be close).  We'll see what happens with Nate Hobbs, I think Gutekunst may have errored big time by not going after a better and more experienced cornerback in free agency.

 

[JosephC]

22 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Valentine (per PFF rankings) actually did slightly better than Nixon. I thought he was a bit worse overall, but played passable especially for a 3rd CB.

 

PFF seems to get ripped to pieces by a lot of the "veteran" sports writers and the big-time football fans that I know that watch a ton of football.  Whether that is justified or not, I don't know.

But I will say this about Valentine, at year's end he only played in 50.23% of the team's defensive snaps.  Eric Stokes was slightly higher (53.99%).  But what is really concerning is that Pro Football Reference has Valentine's 2025 Yards per Completion at 13.1 and Yards Per Target at 10.1 and those are ugly numbers.  Packer fans I talk to say that Valentine was better in 2023 than he was in 2024.  Valentine appears to be somewhat of a question mark.

So the 3 CBs that will be on the roster next year: Nixon played in 93.66% of the team's defensive snaps, Valentine was at 50.23% and Hobbs was at 49.87% for the Raiders (missed some games, in the games he appeared in, he played in 79% of the teams snaps).  How much guys see the field says a lot.  This is why I was thinking that Alexander could be back until Silverstein's article put me back to thinking Alexander is very likely gone one way or another. After Nixon, Valentine and Hobbs we are down to practice squad level players.  I think the cornerback situation is far weaker than many Packer fans think.

[LouisEly]

1 hour ago, CheezWizHed said:

I do find it a little odd that he isn't gone yet.

I still think that he's on the roster as a backup plan in case they get skunked out of the CBs they are targeting in the draft.

If they double-dip and get the guys they want, he's gone.  If their guys get poached or end up with just a 7th rounder, Jaire stays.

[CheezWizHed]

11 minutes ago, JosephC said:

After Nixon, Valentine and Hobbs we are down to practice squad level players.  I think the cornerback situation is far weaker than many Packer fans think.

I think CB depth is a no-doubter need.  It wouldn't surprise me on a double-dip draft at CB (as we often grab a 7th rounder) plus several UDFAs. 

13 minutes ago, JosephC said:

PFF seems to get ripped to pieces by a lot of the "veteran" sports writers and the big-time football fans that I know that watch a ton of football.  Whether that is justified or not, I don't know.

I agree, but its horseshoes and hand grenades... without a better measure, it gets us in the ballpark.  My eyes told me that Nixon was clearly better than Valentine last year, but PFF ranked them opposite (slightly).  Hopefully they can continue to hone it to be a better metric.

[CheezWizHed]

3 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

I still think that he's on the roster as a backup plan in case they get skunked out of the CBs they are targeting in the draft.

If they double-dip and get the guys they want, he's gone.  If their guys get poached or end up with just a 7th rounder, Jaire stays.

Dang it... you guys are getting my hopes up again.  A happy, healthy, (or maybe just "content") Jaire is a big boost to the team. 

[BrewerFan]

13 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

I'll succinctly state that it sounded like you were saying we had am immediate need at CB because all we have are slot CBs.  And while they might not be high end CBs, I believe the Packers expect Nixon/Hobbs to be starters on the outside (not saying they can't flex around, but in general). 

I am definitely saying the part in bold. We have a big need at CB with Jaire moving. 

To respond to the part underlined, I'm pointing out that is where 2 of the 3 CBs we have on the roster who have played, have played the vast majority of the time in the NFL and where they have played at their best. 

Those are just two things that are true. 

So if we draft a CB in the first two Rds, I'd expect him to play a lot in the first year, to play outside and to be capable of playing the style of Football they've both(MLF, Hafley) have repeatedly said they'd like to play...

[BrewerFan]

12 hours ago, JosephC said:

Tom Silverstein at the Journal-Sentinel had a recent article that the Packers have been shopping Alexander and were close to a deal at one point, but the combination of what they want for him and Alexander being unwilling to take any sort of paycut has prevented a deal from happening.  After subtracting the pro-rated part of his cap number, Alexander would have a 17.5 million cap figure in 2025 and it's pretty unlikely anyone wants to take that on.  He also said something along the lines of the league knows the Packers don't intend on keeping Alexander, which leads me to believe that Alexander is likely gone one way or another.  For awhile I was thinking that Alexander now knows he will have to be on the field in 2025, because if he has another year where he only plays 33% of the snaps, then he will be cut and will be looking at a 1 year, 5 million prove-it type deal (his current contract would pay him 19.5 million in 2026...so a huge difference), and that might be enough for Gutekunst to keep him through 2025.  But Silverstein also brought up the point that there is likely resentment between the Packers and Alexander with what has gone on this off-season.  Silverstein also brought up the possibility of an Alexander/Jalen Ramsey swap but the salary numbers he had in the article do not match up with what overthecap has, and I don't think the Dolphins are in a position to take on Alexander's salary and the dead money hit from Ramsey if this swap were to happen.

Last year I thought there was a decent chance they would take Morgan because there just weren't that many left tackles available later in the draft.  I think Morgan was somewhere around #35-#40 and the Packers took him well above that, and the unavailability of left tackles probably played a role in that.  Packers picks are #23, #54 and #87 in first three rounds.  CB rankings on the most recent board I've assembled-

1 - Travis Hunter

9 - Will Johnson (will go lower IMO, not likely to make it to #23 though)

11 - Jahdae Barron

34 - Maxwell Hairston

37 - Trey Amos

40 - Shavon Revel Jr.

46 - Azareye'h Thomas

47 - Benjamin Morrison

72 - Darien Porter

92 - Jacob Parrish

118 - Quincy Riley

120  - Nohl Williams

So that's my best estimate of where guys will go (recent news of Will Johnson not doing the 40 will push him down).  Look what is there between the Packers second and third round picks (#54 and #87), just one player who warmed the bench for most of his long college career.  I will say that Porter definitely fits the Gute profile, but I think he'd be a horrendous pick at #54.  Then at #87, there are only 3 players in the next 33 "slots" and Parrish is really short (5-9 3/4) but does pass the athletic requirement...personally I like both Riley and Williams but both of those guys might not pass Gutekunst's athlete preference.

Edge rusher, defensive tackle, wide receiver...all positions that should have quality (and quality that fits Gutekunst's preferences) in subsequent rounds.  Cornerback...take one early or you might not get one until round four is a real possibility.

I think chances are very strong that the Packers take a cornerback with their first pick with the way the board currently shapes up.  Hairston and Revel are the two that fits Gutekunst's athletic preferences the best.  My most recent prediction was Revel, only because he has the length that Hairston does not.  I guess Azareye'h Thomas is still in that mix, but I'd consider him the long shot at this point, but still include him because he seems like a good fit for what Hafley wants to do on defense.

Personally, I'm not thrilled with any of the late round one cornerbacks and would rather see them go to another position.  I think WR-Emeka Egbuka has emerged as my personal favorite, we'll see if he makes it to #23 (currently #24 on the board, so it will be close).  We'll see what happens with Nate Hobbs, I think Gutekunst may have errored big time by not going after a better and more experienced cornerback in free agency.

 

The CB rankings look...almost perfect...IMO. It's just too hard to nail these guys down without the testing. 

Barron isn't an ideal fit...he's shorter, but he's just physical and tough. Jaire wasn't a questionable fit as well and despite the situation we're currently in, that was a great pick. The Packers are going to likely have to break some trends. Barron's length, Hairston size, most of these guys didn't do the agility. So they'll have to lean heavily on the tape which favors...IMO, Johnson, Morrison and Revel or they just overlook Barron's length and take him should he fall. 

Johnson falling like Mitchell would be ideal, Thomas in the 2nd rd of a trade down would be great(either or) and then Williams in the 4th. I don't think he's a star, but I think he could step in and play right away and be a very good all-around player. 

I think for what they paid Hobbs, Paulson Adebo or DJ Reed seemed like...the most obvious fits. Reed got 3/48M and Adebo got 3/54.. I wonder if the Packers insistence on not handing out guaranteed money beyond the SB hurts them? It seems odd to me they wouldn't pay more for either of those guys...OR maybe they are going to play more of a zone heavy Cover3 like SF does or Seattle did? They want CBs who can come up and play the run and make the tackles in front of them? Or maybe they just tried and those guys wanted to be in New York and Detroit respectively. Hard to say, but Hobbs was a little bit of an odd choice knowing you wanted to move on from Jaire.

As for other players, I've watched more Golden and Egbuka. Golden reminds me of a JSN type WR but he has that top end speed. He's pretty smooth and complete. Egbuka...I went back and watched him as well. I think some of these guys you just see for so many years, maybe I'm underrating him, but I would be a lot better with him at #23 than I would have been a couple weeks ago. Especially if you're talking about trading Doubs(which has been rumored). I think both can come in and play at a relatively high level year 1(as opposed to a guy like Thornton from Tennessee who I like, but in a far more limited role early on). 

 

I completely agree with this take though...and even did a little silly mock draft. Totally pointless as it gives you WAY too much to trade back, but you can easily go through and eliminate like 4 picks where I got a little redundant, but the top of the draft is how I'd like the Packers draft to look and just a general idea in the middle rds. One big dark horse I have is Jackson Slater, an IOL from little Sacramento State. In this little exercise he was gone in the top 100 which is unlikely, but he's an athlete and he's a really physical player who can slide in and contribute earlier. 

 I also just want to be covered on the OL in case...Morgan doesn't become a really good LT(don't want to pay Walker with those knees). I actually have no positive opinion of Williams from UT, but I wanted to add an OT...which I guess the Oregon kid is, but you can erase that pick as we're not getting that many for trading down(I don't think). Same with Slater, Frazier...Cornelius. I think we'll take 3 if we add picks, but not 4 OL and I have 5(albeit one who won't play this year). Also, just bring in competition. Jenkins is due 20M last year and you don't know how the transition will go(and I don't think he's been the same since the ACL). 

 

As for the more...realistic picks....

I went Hairston over Thomas at CB. I may go the other way due to the physical style of play with Thomas. I think Nohl Williams can also play snaps Yr1. I think he's a ballhawk and probably best in press but solid playing zone and a Ball Hawk. Still...a fit. I would love this if they kept Jaire and got a healthy season out of him, but I think this would help solve the depth issue. Plus, we have elite Safety play behind them. 

DT-Grant and Farmer replace Slaton and then MAYBE help to replace Clark...who is out of GTD money after this year and declined pretty badly last year. I also really like the kid from Toledo, Alexander, but he's got a little too much helium on these mocks. I don't think he's a 1st or 2nd rd pick. 

Landon Jackson reminds me...a LITTLE of Arik Armstead. He's long, athletic. I think he could also kick inside and play DT in the sub.
Jayden Higgins, I love Thornton, but Higgins is a potential #1 WR and he's a big body.

After that, if you could give me 2 of the IOL and Cornelius, I'd be thrilled. LB, the kid from Cal is an athlete who can be a demon on STs and help vs the run right away and be an impact between Quay and Cooper long term. Same with Kobe King...who I think goes around the same time, not a late day 3 pick.

But the main theme is last year we went with kinda secondary positions. LB, Safety, RB with our 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th pick in the top ~95. We need to hit those premium positions and Gutekunst has said there's more talent later in this draft than normal AND they were older. That may suggest we see a slightly different approach and more guys who wouldn't "fit" the Packers parameters in the past. 

 

But I'd definitely like to see an extra day 2 pick and a couple extra day 3 picks to move down ~20 spots and add more talent IF there isn't a guy like Johnson, maybe Stewart, Bolden available. I also think we'll end up with a couple extra as I think we deal a couple guys. Doubs and Ja. Doubs could net us a 4th rd pick from Dallas perhaps? Ja, I have no idea. I wonder if there's any thought to taking on some of his contract, eating some dead money to get a better pick? Maybe 6M we turn into a bonus and maybe we get back a 3rd? More dead money, but could be worth it in this draft. 

[BrewerFan]

On 4/22/2025 at 12:09 PM, JosephC said:

PFF seems to get ripped to pieces by a lot of the "veteran" sports writers and the big-time football fans that I know that watch a ton of football.  Whether that is justified or not, I don't know.

But I will say this about Valentine, at year's end he only played in 50.23% of the team's defensive snaps.  Eric Stokes was slightly higher (53.99%).  But what is really concerning is that Pro Football Reference has Valentine's 2025 Yards per Completion at 13.1 and Yards Per Target at 10.1 and those are ugly numbers.  Packer fans I talk to say that Valentine was better in 2023 than he was in 2024.  Valentine appears to be somewhat of a question mark.

So the 3 CBs that will be on the roster next year: Nixon played in 93.66% of the team's defensive snaps, Valentine was at 50.23% and Hobbs was at 49.87% for the Raiders (missed some games, in the games he appeared in, he played in 79% of the teams snaps).  How much guys see the field says a lot.  This is why I was thinking that Alexander could be back until Silverstein's article put me back to thinking Alexander is very likely gone one way or another. After Nixon, Valentine and Hobbs we are down to practice squad level players.  I think the cornerback situation is far weaker than many Packer fans think.

It makes it tough when they don't clearly articulate how they arrive at those grades.

They also just don't know the coverage being called at times so they can't know who is responsible.

AS for Valentine, I'd agree he looked better as a rookie, but I also wonder how much of that was just him getting beat because the pass rush wasn't getting home? If you leave him in man and the QB has 3-4 seconds, even the best CBs are going to give up big plays.

You can get by with mediocre CB play like the Vikings have if you are getting after the QB and forcing the ball out quickly. We didn't do that a whole lot.

Some positions are easier to grade than others. I would think CB would be among the toughest.

 

One more thing about the CB rankings...obviously Hunter is #1, but what are your thoughts on the Browns looking at him as a WR who occasionally plays DB...which seems appropriately backwards for the Browns.

I'd give him a few snaps at WR, but have him play CB...but that's why they're picking 2nd....

[CheezWizHed]

13 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

I am definitely saying the part in bold. We have a big need at CB with Jaire moving. 

To respond to the part underlined, I'm pointing out that is where 2 of the 3 CBs we have on the roster who have played, have played the vast majority of the time in the NFL and where they have played at their best. 

Those are just two things that are true. 

So if we draft a CB in the first two Rds, I'd expect him to play a lot in the first year, to play outside and to be capable of playing the style of Football they've both(MLF, Hafley) have repeatedly said they'd like to play...

I don't think the Packers share that opinion. 

From the point they extended Nixon, I think they intended to move him outside.  Last year might've been a "best player" competition takes it with Nixon, Valentine, and Stokes on the outside and Nixon/Bullard on the inside, but looked like an intentional move from the beginning. And the results were pretty good. He isn't a shutdown, but not a liability either. 

Hobbs likewise was given too much money to expect him to be a slot CB.  I'm pretty sure they signed him to play outside and he has better size than Nixon for playing outside. 

While both played more slot in their careers, they also have played plenty on the sidelines to show they can play there.  Neither are Alexander's level, but they provide the floor.  Plus, Bullard showed himself to be very good at slot CB...and he clearly can't move outside (nor looked great as a traditional safety).  

It wouldn't shock me to see a 1st round CB (it is a key position to take in the 1st round) and we certainly need depth.  I just think the needs are bigger at WR and DL where the depth plays more in rotations and where we got less production last year.

[BrewerFan]

On 4/23/2025 at 1:34 PM, CheezWizHed said:

I don't think the Packers share that opinion. 

Opinion? That Hobbs and Nixon have played the majority of their time in the slot and that's where they played their best or that CB is a need? 

I guess we'll find out if the Packers believe that or not based on the draft. 

As for being better in the slot or outside...I'm just going off past performance. If the Packers don't believe that Hobbs can play outside, that'd be...well, just one of the worst signings they've made in a while. 

On 4/23/2025 at 1:34 PM, CheezWizHed said:

While both played more slot in their careers, they also have played plenty on the sidelines to show they can play there. 

They provide a floor... I didn't rail against the signing of Hobbs, but you're responding to me making the argument the Packers have very little depth at CB, particularly on the boundary. 

I also don't really think there's much...if any history supporting Hobbs being very good outside of the slot. After a breakout rookie year, he moved to the slot and played very poorly there...so the Raiders moved him back. 

 

On 4/23/2025 at 1:34 PM, CheezWizHed said:

Plus, Bullard showed himself to be very good at slot CB...and he clearly can't move outside (nor looked great as a traditional safety).  

Did he? He looked pretty solid as a traditional safety...playing the run, playing over the top...but Evan Williams **Took his job and Bullard played worse. I would certainly hope they'd give their 2nd round pick more time, but his coverage in the slot last year was...bad.  I would certainly think they expect more out of him, but he didn't play well in the slot. 

 "he played 361 snaps in the slot, he allowed a high completion percentage (84.2%) against him, resulting in a 2024 rookie ranking of 27th among defensive backs."

I would certainly think they expect more out of him, but he didn't play well in the slot. Over 8 out of 10 passes when he was in coverage were completed. Could be they brought in Hobbs as some protection in the event Bullard doesn't improve...or they just missed out on the top options.

I do disagree that they paid him too much to play slot. 4/48, 16M SB is not hardly out of line for a slot corner in the modern NFL. 

 

On 4/23/2025 at 1:34 PM, CheezWizHed said:

It wouldn't shock me to see a 1st round CB (it is a key position to take in the 1st round) and we certainly need depth.  I just think the needs are bigger at WR and DL where the depth plays more in rotations and where we got less production last year.

Ok... well, I went position by position and we have more depth at DE, DT and WR. It's not a ringing endorsement of the depth we have there, I just think it says more about the CB depth we have.

 

As for when they draft a CB, I'd hope they don't draft one at 23 just because it's a need, but I think that position is there biggest hole. I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree on that. 

 

[OldHeidelberg]

I would agree CB is #1 need, as much I would love to believe Jaire is backup plan to draft I think that ship has sailed, he will probably be traded during this draft and we will be disappointed in return. WR is a very close second though in my mind, I do not think much of any of the guys after top 4 and that may only be top 2 without Doubs and Watson. 

[CheezWizHed]

9 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

Opinion? That Hobbs and Nixon have played the majority of their time in the slot and that's where they played their best or that CB is a need? 

I guess we'll find out if the Packers believe that or not based on the draft. 

As for being better in the slot or outside...I'm just going off past performance. If the Packers don't believe that Hobbs can play outside, that'd be...well, just one of the worst signings they've made in a while. 

Your opinion that we don't have boundary CBs because two of our CBs played most of our snaps there. I don't think the Packers plan on either Hobbs or Nixon playing the majority of their snaps at the slot.  

At least we agree that they provide the CB floor.  🙂

11 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

I also don't really think there's much...if any history supporting Hobbs being very good outside of the slot. After a breakout rookie year, he moved to the slot and played very poorly there...so the Raiders moved him back. 

I'm guessing there is a typo here?  You said he wasn't good outside the slot but then moved to slot and played poorly? 

11 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

Did he? He looked pretty solid as a traditional safety...playing the run, playing over the top...but Evan Williams looked worse. I would certainly hope they'd give their 2nd round pick more time, but his coverage in the slot last year was...bad.  I would certainly think they expect more out of him, but he didn't play well in the slot. 

 "he played 361 snaps in the slot, he allowed a high completion percentage (84.2%) against him, resulting in a 2024 rookie ranking of 27th among defensive backs."

I would certainly think they expect more out of him, but he didn't play well in the slot. Over 8 out of 10 passes when he was in coverage were completed. Could be they brought in Hobbs as some protection in the event Bullard doesn't improve...or they just missed out on the top options.

Bullard at safety I can't agree on.  Nor your take on Williams.  Bullard was lost at safety at the beginning of last year.  Williams was lauded for his play and by the second half of the year was the clear favorite for starting.  The DB as a whole was MUCH better with Bullard at the slot and Williams at safety.  Perhaps Bullard didn't get a great grade last year, but he looked much better in the slot.  

Doesn't mean that the Pack should give up on Bullard at safety, but I'd be surprised if Williams is even challenged as the starter. 

And we agree (twice in one post?? 😂) that Hobbs or Nixon will have chances to play slot CB at times (injury, defensive alignment, shifting, whatever).  I just see the Packers planned alignment to be Nixon and Hobbs at outside CB, Bullard at slot, McKinney and Williams at safety.   Of course any CB they draft (and they will draft at least one) will have a chance to break in at starting CB, but that floor they had last year (same config with Valentine instead of Hobbs) was solid.  Solid enough to not panic at CB need either. I guess there we agree to disagree. 😉

If LVN had broke out last year, Watson wasn't injured, and our DTs looked better, I'd elevate CB more.  But WR and DL are still bigger concerns to me.  CB and OL rank about the same, IMO.  All of those positions will probably be addressed in the draft (and possibly multiple times).  Just where do you spend the money early if you have similar players at thos positions?