Fri. 6/6 - Still Haven't Had a Seven-Pack (Rain), But Tonight We Have a Crazy Eight-Pack!

[Joseph Zarr]

DSL Brewers Gold are 1-3 and have lost by a combined 3 runs? I'll take the Over.

Hard not to be highly intrigued by early Rijo and Tarazona work over on the Blue Squad.

[wiguy94]

Tough game so far for the big 4 on Carolina. Combined 1-12 with 5 strikeouts

[Joseph Zarr]

The calendar flipped to May and the outings have been fairly unkind for RHP Bryan Rivera. He came aboard up 4-3. Still in the game top of the 6th and the Mudcats trail 7-4. Lead off man aboard. Not looking good.

[Joseph Zarr]

Make that 8-4. Doh.

[Ro Mueller]

RHP Jacob Misiorowski (2.31 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 11.3 K/9 in 58.1 IP) starts at home against Gwinnett, as AAA Nashville seeks a 3-1 series lead. C Jorge Alfaro leads the team in homers (11) and RBIs (35), but has a 9 BB / 76 Ks.

[Ro Mueller]

After dropping Game 1 of today’s doubleheader, the Mudcats need a win behind LHP Wande Torres (6.67 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 in 27 IP) in the nightcap to avoid a 3-1 series deficit against Charleston. 3B Luis Lameda had 2 doubles in his first action in 7 days. Anderson, Di Turi, Nadal and Walther join the lineup for Game 2. 

[Jastro]

Luke Adams again... 3R HR

 

[sveumrules]

Jason DeBerry was cruising through five before giving up a double and bomb to open the 6th.

Still ended up at 5.1 IP | 2 R | 5 H | 0 BB | 4 K.

Jesus Broca followed and is currently at 1.2 scoreless with 3 H | 2 K.

TRats answered back with a double (Burke) and bomb (Jadher) of their own bottom six.

[sveumrules]

Shuckers picked up two more in the fourth on a trio of two out singles from Zavier Warren, Matthew Wood and Garrett Spain (plus a Wood stolen bag).

KC Hunt finished with 5 IP | 1 R | 4 H | 1 BB | 6 K.

[sveumrules]

Carolina can’t get the bats going with three singles and two walks through five.

Trailing 3-0 with Bitonti, Anderson, Di Turi due up trying to get something going.

[sveumrules]

Zona Crew up one zip on Pedro Ibarguen’s first stateside homer.

Enderson Mercado on the mound has gone nine up nine down (3 K) to open the game.

[sveumrules]

One down bottom of nine and Jadher doubles and goes to third on a throwing error.

After a couple failed attempts getting Hedbert to chase they intentionally walked him to get to Daniel Guilarte who came through with the sac fly for the Wisco walk off.

[sveumrules]

Mercado faced nine batters through the first three then faced all nine again in a very On The Complex fourth.

Three singles, a walk, an HBP, a catchers interference, three steals, a passed ball and a dropped pop foul by catcher Kevin Garcia (not in that order) added up to three runs across.

[Terry]

Yup, I think he's gradually back to the old Hunt we all know and love. Swstr% over 16% for 4 consecutive games, which is pretty elite. Homerun problem is a bit of an issue, but I think it'll come around.

[snoogans8056]

Anyone know what the advanced stat stuff is saying for Luke Adams?

April: .174 / .326 / .387

May: .271 / .485 / .457

June (3 games): .500 / .623 / 1.200

The crazy thing about his terrible April is that in his last 7 games of the month he went 9/24 with 2 doubles, and 4 HRs.

He’s been very good for a while now.

[Terry]

Popup rate is high in April, but he's probably still a little unlucky to start the season as well. A bit passive and more whiffs of late, but when he does connect the ball it is loud.

[biedergb]

Adams continues to be sneaky good. Unorthodox and the test was could he hit AA or better or was his success just due to his elite eye and patience at the plate.  He may not wow with his stats (although they are good) but he is a really good player in my eyes. And the “old school” (yes I’m an old guy) view is his teams are successful and he looks like a leader on the field and in the clubhouse. Those are important intangibles that are never captured with modern data analytics, and while stat data is a very valuable predictor, these intangibles are maybe why we can’t separate the Lewis Brinsons from Sal Frelicks sometimes. 
‘Anyway his stats are good but Luke seems to have some other intangible qualities that could lead to success.

[Jake McKibbin]

There are some inconsistencies and modelling that prevent this being 100% accurate, although Thomas Nesticos is fairly confident in it's overall validity regarding in zone/out of zone data.

The swing rate is easier to get and Adams over his last ~300 pitches is hovering between 35-40% swing rate, a notch up while also showing a little more chase. Not a lot, and still far above average as a result of the low swing rates, but his in zone contact rates look pretty damn good

[CheeseheadInQC]

21 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

The issue is if you return Chandler Welch then Carolina is going to be in a tough spot pitching wise. The system’s pitching is pretty light at the lower levels and AA and especially AAA are a bit overflowing

It isn't just in A-ball either. I count 15 in the ACL before the Bravo promotion and I think the two DSL teams have 14 and 13 respectively.

[CheeseheadInQC]

21 hours ago, gregmag said:

I don't know where to put this, so I'm putting it here.  Maybe everyone already knows all this, but . . .

The Brewers have the youngest hitters in the complex league, A (Carolina), and AA (Southern), all at least a full year younger than league average.  In each of those leagues, the Brewers' offensive production comfortably leads the league.  I did a quick rundown using OPS and runs per game, because those numbers were easily available on BR.

Numbers are Brewers / (league average)

Complex Brewers - OPS: .864 (.746); R/g: 7.48 (5.52)

A (Mudcats) - OPS: .767 (.672); R/g: 6.14 (4.75)

AA (Shuckers) - OPS: .713 / (.651); R/g: 4.76 (3.81)

A few more tidbits . . . the Brewers have the second-youngest hitters at A+; their production is near the bottom of the league.  On the pitching side, the Brewers have the youngest pitchers in the complex league and A.  Using ERA and WHIP (again, easily available), the complex kids are near the top of the 15-team league (4th in ERA, 1st in WHIP), while the A pitchers are a mixed bag -- second of 12 teams in ERA but sixth in WHIP.  Wisconsin pitchers are middling by age and production.  Biloxi pitchers are on the older end and doing not great.

That Wisconsin has even managed to be middling is honestly pretty impressive. As of right now, you could make an impressive high-A staff just from guys on the IL (Letson, Knoth, Rodriguez, Galindez and Woodward in the rotation backed by Corniel, Wagoner, Rudy, Jimenez, Maldonado, etc.)

[Terry]

3 hours ago, Jake McKibbin said:

There are some inconsistencies and modelling that prevent this being 100% accurate, although Thomas Nesticos is fairly confident in it's overall validity regarding in zone/out of zone data.

The swing rate is easier to get and Adams over his last ~300 pitches is hovering between 35-40% swing rate, a notch up while also showing a little more chase. Not a lot, and still far above average as a result of the low swing rates, but his in zone contact rates look pretty damn good

Not sure what's going on with his rolling plot in that app, but combined with my data and his other app, I think this one is the correct version. Meaning that Adams is quite passive lately. 

[Jake McKibbin]

You're using a 300 pitch rolling average, I've got it at 100! Maybe part of it?

This is from tjstats 

[Terry]

Yup the above plot was from Tjstats as well. I've changed it to 100 pitch rolling now. I'm confident that my monthly Swing% is correct(I'll see if I have time to make a rolling one just to double check), so I'm guessing this plot from his other app is probably the correct one because it's trending downward.

[Jake McKibbin]

1 hour ago, Terry said:

Yup the above plot was from Tjstats as well. I've changed it to 100 pitch rolling now. I'm confident that my monthly Swing% is correct(I'll see if I have time to make a rolling one just to double check), so I'm guessing this plot from his other app is probably the correct one because it's trending downward.

I'll drop him a message about it, very much could be!

[Jake McKibbin]

1 hour ago, Terry said:

Yup the above plot was from Tjstats as well. I've changed it to 100 pitch rolling now. I'm confident that my monthly Swing% is correct(I'll see if I have time to make a rolling one just to double check), so I'm guessing this plot from his other app is probably the correct one because it's trending downward.

In response to this, Nestico is actually correcting my version this weekend, the X axis is graphed the wrong way around, meaning point 0 is actually on the right and the 800/900th pitch is on the left.

 

Good spot Terry!