Rhys Hoskins is a Huge Loss for Brewers, Who Now Have to Test Andrew Vaughn's Staying Power

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

Rhys Hoskins has a Grade 2 sprain of his left thumb, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reported Sunday afternoon. That will land him on the injured list, and it's likely he'll be out past the All-Star break. The Brewers are calling up Andrew Vaughn to take Hoskins's place on the roster—and, at least in part, his role as the first baseman.

This is a major blow to Milwaukee's offense, which relies on Hoskins, Caleb Durbin and Isaac Collins to get the ball in the air and punctuate their OBP-driven lineup with enough power to cash in rallies for maximal scoring. After a 2024 campaign in which he was diminished by the lingering effects of the ligament tear he suffered in 2023 (plus a hamstring strain last May), Hoskins has been an important component of the team this year, batting .242/.340/.428. He's only hit 12 home runs, but his consistent ability to pull and lift the ball and his patient approach have helped the team put up some crooked numbers.

It seems likely that Hoskins will be out for around a month. Over the last nine seasons, removing injuries that took place in September or early in spring training, position players miss an average of 29 days with thumb sprains. This one isn't on Hoskins's throwing hand, but it's a moderate sprain, meaning that he's almost certainly not on the shorter end of the spectrum of absences.

Hopefully, Hoskins can return in early August; most of the players who miss more than four weeks with this malady are catchers. Still, his absence will be felt. In the meantime, the silver lining is that the Brewers get a chance to see what they have in Vaughn.

Since acquiring Vaughn from the White Sox in the Aaron Civale trade, the Brewers are getting more out of the former first-round pick than the Sox were—but only in theory. He's whiffed a hair less often and is hitting the ball considerably harder (92.4 mph average exit velocity with Triple-A Nashville, up from the 89.6 mph he was averaging for Charlotte in the Chicago system), but that's still in the minor leagues, and Vaughn is also hitting it on the ground more since coming over.

The Brewers will have the right to control Vaughn through the 2027 season, although his arbitration-fueled salary of $5.85 million can't be reduced by more than 20% next year (and, in practice, will almost certainly rise) unless they non-tender him. With Hoskins an impending free agent, the team does benefit somewhat from the chance to assess Vaughn and start seeing whether he'll be worth retaining this fall. Nonetheless, this is a troubling development. Losing Hoskins means less depth and less margin to work with; the team can now withstand one fewer injury and is much more prone to rally-killing double plays. 

In the short term, Jake Bauers could start more than Vaughn, to see whether consistent reps will allow him to tap into his power consistently with the improved plate discipline he's shown this year. At the same time, Vaughn will get some looks, because he could solve some medium-term problems for the organization if he continues to blossom under their care. If not, they need to know that, too. While they'll miss Hoskins's pop and his leadership on a day-to-day basis, this is a needed opportunity. The challenge will be for other hitters in the everyday lineup to pick up the slack while Vaughn feels his way back into a major-league rhythm.

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[wiguy94]

I think this is a blessing in disguise for the Brewers giving them the ability to go after one of Naylor or O'Hearn to upgrade the 1B spot which they probably wouldn't have done if Hoskins was healthy. Hoskins hasn't been hitting for like 6 weeks so even though I don't think Bauers/Vaughn are going to match Hoskins 115 wRC+ on the season while he's on the IL, I think they could be an upgrade over how he's hit the last 6 weeks (72 wRC+)

[Ben Lepak]

Since May 22, the Brewers are 5th in the MLB with a 114 wRC+. In that same time frame, Rhys Hoskins has a .595 OPS and 32.4 K%. They were already making it work on offense with well-below average production from Hoskins. I get that we can't count on the likes of Durbn, Collins and Ortiz to continue to hit as well as they have in that stretch, and that Vaughn/Bauers are not great options, but personally I'm not real concerned about losing his bat for a while. He's slugging less than Brice Turang during that sample 

[rickh150]

This might be a time to put Durbin at #2 and slide everyone down a spot or two. Durbin has a better OBP for the YEAR than Yelich….and way better than about anyone lately.  And he can steal bases much better than current #2 in Contreras. This lineup feels a lot better than having slower Contreras at 2,  21 year old Chourio at 4 and rather light hitting 2Ndhalf hitter Turang at 5

Frelick

Durbin

Chourio

Yelich

Contreras

Bauers/Vaughn

Collins

Turang

Ortiz

 

[Brian]

3 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

I think this is a blessing in disguise for the Brewers giving them the ability to go after one of Naylor or O'Hearn to upgrade the 1B spot which they probably wouldn't have done if Hoskins was healthy. Hoskins hasn't been hitting for like 6 weeks so even though I don't think Bauers/Vaughn are going to match Hoskins 115 wRC+ on the season while he's on the IL, I think they could be an upgrade over how he's hit the last 6 weeks (72 wRC+)

I think O'Hearn would be a great choice since the Orioles are 7.5 out of even a WC spot. 

Naylor and AZ are still in the hunt. 

Baltimore would want a king's ransom I would suspect. 

[Team Canada]

Calling it a big loss feels hyperbolic to me. Is this early 2025 decent Rhys, or June terrible Rhys? Are we replacing him with early good Jake Bauers or June terrible Jake Bauers (plus Vaughn)?

I don't know whether this will be good, bad, or a total wash. He did have a tendency to hit fly balls, which can be helpful (whether they go out of the park or not), but otherwise I hesitate to say it's going to matter one way or the other. If Vaughn can manage an OPS north of .700 for a month it's probably a net positive, unless his torrid July start was an indication that he was back on a hot streak.

[MrVos]

Since May 21st 1B has not been good  

 

 

[Ben Lepak]

1 hour ago, rickh150 said:

This might be a time to put Durbin at #2 and slide everyone down a spot or two. Durbin has a better OBP for the YEAR than Yelich….and way better than about anyone lately.  And he can steal bases much better than current #2 in Contreras. This lineup feels a lot better than having slower Contreras at 2,  21 year old Chourio at 4 and rather light hitting 2Ndhalf hitter Turang at 5

Frelick

Durbin

Chourio

Yelich

Contreras

Bauers/Vaughn

Collins

Turang

Ortiz

 

I've been railing for Contreras to get dropped in my group chat.  Or please just give him a full day off. I know the bench is horrible, but when he's not behind the plate, Contreras is not much of a DH.  He's missing the 'H' part these days

[bensheeps]

3 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

I think this is a blessing in disguise for the Brewers giving them the ability to go after one of Naylor or O'Hearn to upgrade the 1B spot

These are the exact two on my wishlist...and were the same before the Hoskins injury as a replacement for Bauers.

The baseball trade values site (taken with a grain of salt) lists 

O'Hearn at 6.1

Naylor at 3.5

Tobias Myers at 6.0

What's a doable trade with Myers as the starting point?

[JohnBriggs12]

For their careers, Vaughn and Bauers have produced very similar HR rates.  Both have hit 1 HR every 29 or so ABs in the majors.  Hoskins is closer to 1 HR every 16 ABs but as a Brewer it's closer to one every 18.5.   Over a month's worth of games, it would take a slight uptick for the combination of Bauers and Vaughn to come close to a typical month for Hoskins.  If by end of July, it looks like Hoskins won't be returning anytime soon, a guy like Ryan O'hearn makes sense as a trade target.

[Frisbee Slider]

4 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

 

I think this is a blessing in disguise for the Brewers giving them the ability to go after one of Naylor or O'Hearn to upgrade the 1B spot

 

I feel like Milwaukee wouldn’t ’do that’ to Hoskins if he is back in August. Not saying it’s right but I doubt we’d bench Hoskins upon his return.

[Outlander]

If the Brewers feel it is a fair trade I don't know why the Brewers wouldn't go after Naylor/O'Hearn. They still need to win games to get to the playoffs and if they get there Hoskins could still play a fair amount at DH with Yelich in LF.

[Jim French Stepstool]

How often we see Vaughn in the lineup may depend on how many LH starters we face in the next month; I expect Bauers to get the lions' share of time & I'd be fine with that. It seems Bauers is at his best when he can get at least semi-regular ABs. And w/o having much knowledge of Vaughns' prowess around the bag, I suspect Bauers is superior there.

Nice writeup @Matthew Trueblood, but I don't think we'd be 'more prone to rally-killing double plays' with Hoskins out.

[Jim French Stepstool]

2 hours ago, rickh150 said:

This might be a time to put Durbin at #2 and slide everyone down a spot or two. Durbin has a better OBP for the YEAR than Yelich….and way better than about anyone lately.  And he can steal bases much better than current #2 in Contreras. This lineup feels a lot better than having slower Contreras at 2,  21 year old Chourio at 4 and rather light hitting 2Ndhalf hitter Turang at 5

Frelick

Durbin

Chourio

Yelich

Contreras

Bauers/Vaughn

Collins

Turang

Ortiz

 

I like the idea of moving Durbin to #2 & seeing how that works. But In that case I'd rather leave Yelich at #3 & then Chourio. They seem to like alternating L & R hitters. And with relievers having to face at least three batters, that makes sense in the part of the order that you don't usually PH for.