Can the Brewers Pounce on the Stuck-in-the-Middle Texas Rangers at the Trade Deadline?

[Harold Hutchison]

Image courtesy of © Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

As the trade deadline nears, Milwaukee is looking for a little more offensive punch, even as they have now surpassed the Cubs for the NL Central lead. But how should the Crew go about bolstering their offense?

One option has been to go to the Twins to acquire Willi Castro. There is another path for the Crew, though—one that could also help them create space for more multi-inning relief-pitching capability and bolster their offense. It could even complement the deal for Castro.

Taking Stock Of Texas
The Texas Rangers are 1.5 games out of the third AL Wild Card spot, currently held by the Boston Red Sox. They're tied with the Rays and just one game ahead of Cleveland in a muddled chase for those Wild Card berths.

Their big need: The bullpen. To boil a big thing down small: they recently designated their saves leader (Luke Jackson) for assignment. This is a team that could use some late-inning help. Old friend Hoby Milner has been solid for the Rangers, as is Robert Garcia, but their depth chart has effectively had a Joel Payamps equivalent at the top of it all year. Real, high-leverage relief depth would go a long way for them.

The Rangers haven’t had a problem scoring runs. They have four players who would rank third on the Crew in home runs, and a fifth player in double figures. But the Crew doesn’t need to target any of them. Rather, the prime asset the Crew needs to ask for is Josh Smith, a utility player under team control through the 2028 season. He’s a highly versatile player (having played all four infield positions and all three outfield spots), with a left-handed bat that has posted a 123 OPS+—just the answer for the Crew’s offensive production issues on the left side of the infield.

The Brewers’ Bountiful Bullpen
Of course, Milwaukee can help the Rangers out, too. In this case, it’s the simple fact that their bullpen depth is such that a pitcher they might turn to in the sixth or seventh inning would be a viable late-inning option for teams that aren’t so loaded.

Creating space for more multi-inning options is important for the Crew, given the innings limits multiple key pitchers face. Plus, Logan Henderson and Chad Patrick, who pitched well in Milwaukee, are currently in Nashville and are arguably the answer to the Crew’s desire for an upgrade.

In this case, the Crew could send Texas Grant Anderson and Nick Mears—just the boost the Texas bullpen could use for their push for the playoffs. Anderson and Mears have given the Crew 1.5 WAR, according to Baseball Reference. If they replace Jackson and Jacob Webb, the Rangers get a lot better in a hurry. Leads can be converted into wins much more reliably.

The Total Package
That said, the Rangers will want more than two relievers from the back end of the Brewers bullpen for Josh Smith. The Crew would need to add one or two other pieces. One might be a young pitching prospect, like Henderson, Patrick, or Coleman Crow. Alternatively, it could be a higher-end position prospect like Braylon Payne, Cooper Pratt, Josh Adamczewski or Blake Burke. For the sake of discussion, let's say it's Adamczewski. Let's also say that they throw in Dominican Summer League outfielder Kenny Fenelon. In return, they could ask the Rangers for a prospect or two in addition to Smith. Devin Fitz-Gerald and Seong-Jung Kim could be possibilities to come over to the Crew, along with Smith.

On its own, the deal would give Milwaukee an offensive upgrade at third against right-handed pitchers, and allow them to shift Caleb Durbin to second and Brice Turang to shortstop if Joey Ortiz continues to struggle. It would also net them a prospect for the Crew’s future. If combined with the proposed Castro trade, the entire left side of Milwaukee’s infield gets a boost, with players who could bolster the bench upon the return of a healthy Sal Frelick.

Big moves often get the talk, but the Crew has shown they can do just as well with deals that don’t look like much at first glance. In this case, the Crew could come out ahead, not just in the short term, but down the road, as well.

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[KCBrewerfan34]

Why do people think we need to give 4-5 assets for anybody we want to acquire??

[Harold Hutchison]

10 minutes ago, KCBrewerfan34 said:

Why do people think we need to give 4-5 assets for anybody we want to acquire??

A lot of it is Smith's three years of control. That's going to come at a higher cost than, say, Castro, who would be a rest-of-the-season rental. Personally, I'd offer Mears, Anderson, Carlos Rodriguez and Brock Wilken as the package for Smith, Fitz-Gerald, and Kim, and see what Texas says.

[BrewCrew8675309]

He is 5'9" 172...perfect fit. Hits righties on the split pretty well this year. 

I just think that a young controllable starter is fine for a controllable UTL player. I think Tobias Myers is up to showcase that he still has it at the MLB level. 

Mears, CCrow (Tex has 4 starters over 33) and Quintana (ss) for Smith plus one. 

 

Now go get OHearn (to pair with Hoskins) and GSoto (to fill in for Mears and knock Koening down the ladder a bit) for TobMyers, Areinamo, and a Mudcat starter.

 

TBlack and AVaughn at 1st next year till the kids come up.

[izzi]

If we give up Adamczewski I will scream bloody murder. 

[MattK]

10 minutes ago, izzi said:

If we give up Adamczewski I will scream bloody murder. 

Also my immediate thought in that trade example ...

[JohnBriggs12]

Where is this "if Joey Ortiz continues to struggle" coming from?  Ortiz hit .277/.326/.422 in June and has hit .255/.283/.412 in July.  Since June 1, he has 5 HR and 23 RBI and is slugging .418.  Not only that he's playing gold glove caliber defense at shortstop.  

Ortiz isn't some guy who was a good field/no hit prospect coming up either.  In essentially one full season at AAA, he posted a .904 OPS.  His recent form is more like that guy.  In fact if you compare Ortiz' first two major league seasons to Smith's first two, Ortiz' numbers are clearly better.

In short, Ortiz is not struggling.  He's a key reason this team has taken off the last couple months and he's a superior defender to Smith.  Smith is a fine utility player who's turned into a solid hitter albeit in a weak division in the weaker of the two leagues.

[Jacob Walsh]

45 minutes ago, JohnBriggs12 said:

Where is this "if Joey Ortiz continues to struggle" coming from?  Ortiz hit .277/.326/.422 in June and has hit .255/.283/.412 in July.  Since June 1, he has 5 HR and 23 RBI and is slugging .418.  Not only that he's playing gold glove caliber defense at shortstop.  

Ortiz isn't some guy who was a good field/no hit prospect coming up either.  In essentially one full season at AAA, he posted a .904 OPS.  His recent form is more like that guy.  In fact if you compare Ortiz' first two major league seasons to Smith's first two, Ortiz' numbers are clearly better.

In short, Ortiz is not struggling.  He's a key reason this team has taken off the last couple months and he's a superior defender to Smith.  Smith is a fine utility player who's turned into a solid hitter albeit in a weak division in the weaker of the two leagues.

I'm not trying to dump on the author, but this article is filled with errors. In addition to the point you make about Ortiz's improved offense, the author is also wrong that the Rangers are a good offensive team. They rank 25th in baseball in runs and have the third-worst OPS. Texas is not going to trade Smith if they are trying to contend. If they do trade him, they will be selling, meaning they would want prospects in return, not bullpen pieces. 

[Jim Goulart]

Harold, you do remember who traded Grant Anderson to the Brewers?

Milwaukee flips the “fixed version” back?

Looking forward to the deadline passing…

[Johnny Logan]

No need to overpay for Josh Smith even with three years of control. He's not a starter, he's utility. I think you get him for Tobias and a lottery pick.

[TURBO]

Man, that is a severe overpay for a guy like Smith.  This looks like we are willing to overpay and are desperate.  Smith can do a lot, true, but what can he do well enough that he pushes us to a World Series appearance?

If we give up a package like that for Josh Smith, who is nothing more than a utility guy for the next 3 years, that is complete and total failure on our front office.

[BrewerFan]

Quote

That said, the Rangers will want more than two relievers from the back end of the Brewers bullpen for Josh Smith. The Crew would need to add one or two other pieces. One might be a young pitching prospect, like Henderson, Patrick, or Coleman Crow. Alternatively, it could be a higher-end position prospect like Braylon Payne, Cooper Pratt, Josh Adamczewski or Blake Burke.

Mears 2.54 ERA, .85 Whip and 2.73 FIP is a "back end" of the BP? Seems like he's the 3rd guy behind Megill and Uribe...

Anderson has been very good as well, but he's also a former Texas Ranger. He's also been very valuable in his role for us. 

But fine... we could trade them. It's require us to go out and then replace them and do so from a position of weakness vs strength... and you think with all the relievers on the market, the Rangers would just...trade for a guy like Duran, Bautista, Clase, Griffin Jax or Helsley or just...so, so many relievers. 

But now here's where I'm really confused. We're going to trade a top 50 prospect as well as a very valuable young pitching prospect like top 100 prospect Logan Henderson, Chad Patrick or...Coleman Crow. 

 

And we're getting back a slightly better version of Durbin? 

This is all before we end up trading a young IFA who was IIRC, our top or 2nd top prospect and we're going to get back a reliever who's 31 or a young SS/P back? 

I'd do this if we get Seager and they are going to pay 120M of what he has left on his deal...while throwing in Adolis Garcia(who could actually help...good underlying metrics this year). But that's... how bad of a trade this could potentially be within the parameters of your proposal. 

 

13 hours ago, izzi said:

If we give up Adamczewski I will scream bloody murder. 

He suggests Pratt and Payne in the same sentence. I'm not sure I wouldn't prefer those two to Adamczewski, but it's still a terrible deal. 

[BrewerFan]

13 hours ago, Harold Hutchison said:

A lot of it is Smith's three years of control. That's going to come at a higher cost than, say, Castro, who would be a rest-of-the-season rental. Personally, I'd offer Mears, Anderson, Carlos Rodriguez and Brock Wilken as the package for Smith, Fitz-Gerald, and Kim, and see what Texas says.

Well, that's a helluva lot better than throwing Pratt and Henderson into the conversation for a utility IFer who's not particularly great defensively, not likely to play at SS and effectively even with Durbin overall(though the splits help, they don't make up for the talent you're giving up). 

[Branyanisthegoat]

"The Rangers haven’t had a problem scoring runs."

Got to disagree here, they are currently 27th in team OPS, and 24th in runs per game. 

[Outlander]

Smith may be just an utlity guy but if he is really available would be a heck of a pickup. Yes, I do believe he is the type of player to add to increase the Brewers chances at a World Series. If the Brewers can pick up 3 WAR guys at the deadline sign me up.

[endaround]

44 minutes ago, Outlander said:

Smith may be just an utlity guy but if he is really available would be a heck of a pickup. Yes, I do believe he is the type of player to add to increase the Brewers chances at a World Series. If the Brewers can pick up 3 WAR guys at the deadline sign me up.

Smith is a "utility guy" like Zobrist was a "utility guy". If a guy is getting close to 600PAs and putting up three wins, he's not a "utility guy" but a starter playing multiple positions. Long term the Brewers would likely stick him at 3B and just leave him there but versatility is a bonus not a detriment. 

[OneangryBadger]

For that package of prospects I’d go to the Nationals and see if I could pry away CJ Abrams. I think a package of Pratt, Myers, Lara, and someone from the DSL might get it done. I know guys on here are going to scream about Pratt, but the Crew has two SS at low A ahead of him on baseball’s top 100. By the time he is ready to hit FA one of the two should be ready to take over. The Nationals probably won’t want to but should because they need to seriously lean into the rebuild.