Shelby Miller's Arrival Should Enable Pat Murphy to Use Nick Mears and Jared Koenig More Strategically

[Jack Stern]

Image courtesy of © Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

Shelby Miller looked game-ready in what will likely be his lone rehab appearance on Tuesday night in Nashville. The Brewers’ trade deadline acquisition struck out the side in order on 17 pitches, averaging 95.5 mph with his fastball and inducing four swings and misses. Optioning Easton McGee on Thursday morning was almost certainly a precursor to Miller joining the Milwaukee bullpen for Friday night’s series opener against the New York Mets.

More than anything, Miller’s presence should ease the strain on his new teammates. Pat Murphy has ridden his best relievers hard this year – sometimes controversially so, but often out of necessity. Abner Uribe, Jared Koenig, and Grant Anderson have each exceeded 50 appearances this year, and Nick Mears is not far behind at 48. Miller, whose stint on the injured list lasted about a month, has only pitched in 37 regular-season games. As a veteran rental, Murphy should have free rein to push the envelope with his workload down the stretch.

The usage of Koenig and Mears should change the most. Both have worked valuable innings in crucial situations, but have attacked the strike zone far less for several weeks, which is often a symptom of fatigue.

Month	Koenig Zone%	Mears Zone%
April	54.4%	56.8%
May	61.6%	57.2%
June	60.6%	61.7%
July	51.4%	48.7%
August	48.4%	44.8%

Most of Koenig’s underlying metrics say he’s been just as good as last season despite a higher ERA, but that’s because left-handed hitters have had an even harder time barreling him up this year. Right-handers, meanwhile, have made much better contact, not to the severe extent the results indicate, but enough to know there are better suitors for those matchups.

Split	wOBA	xwOBA	DRA-
vs. LHB	.239	.188	70
vs. RHB	.372	.336	96

While it looks in the box scores like Mears has been equally effective against both sides, left-handers have had far better swings against him.

Split	wOBA	xwOBA	DRA-	Whiff%
vs. LHB	.248	.351	115	17.2%
vs. RHB	.245	.297	85	30.6%

Part of the issue is that Mears’s fastball has become a worse pitch this year and has lost its ability to blow opponents away. He’s been able to mitigate the issue against right-handers by throwing his devastating slider nearly as often as his heater. Against lefties, his window for low glove-side sliders shrinks, and he lacks another offspeed pitch breaking away from the hitter, forcing him to keep leaning heavily on his fastball.

Season	Velocity	Perceived Velocity	Stuff+	wOBA	xwOBA	Whiff%	Exit Velocity	RHB Usage	LHB Usage
2023	96.7	97.9	108	.319	.321	20.0%	89.8	58.5%	62.4%
2024	95.2	95.8	96	.338	.406	12.9%	94.0	51.2%	62.5%

Miller, meanwhile, is platoon-proof mainly due to his wipeout splitter and the sweeper he mixes in against same-handed opponents. Since the start of 2023, lefties (.204 wOBA) have fared worse against him than righties (.296). Not only should his arrival mean less work for Koenig and Mears overall, but it should also push them into the specialist roles they are best suited for down the stretch.

The veteran likely will not be the only reinforcement available in the coming weeks. Rob Zastryzny just embarked on a new rehab assignment, Robert Gasser is on pace to be built up by the end of the month, and the Brewers could nudge one of their MLB-caliber starters in Nashville to the bullpen if a need arises. That should create a dream scenario for Murphy – the luxury of managing to win tonight without placing disproportionate strain on any one arm.

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[Brian]

I'm looking forward to 34 year old Shelby Miller pitch in NY to help close out our wins for us.  Another calm pitcher that hits the mid to upper 90's, also seems to be a good fit for the Brewers even off the field who I have read is a great human being. Brewers do seen to target those type players I believe. 

[eddiemathews]

1 hour ago, Brian said:

I'm looking forward to 34 year old Shelby Miller pitch in NY to help close out our wins for us.  Another calm pitcher that hits the mid to upper 90's, also seems to be a good fit for the Brewers even off the field who I have read is a great human being. Brewers do seen to target those type players I believe. 

They're in Milwaukee, unless you mean in the play-offs.

[eddiemathews]

Those "Click here to proceed" ads are annoying. And I haven't even clicked on them!

[Brian]

13 minutes ago, eddiemathews said:

They're in Milwaukee, unless you mean in the play-offs.

You right I thought Brewers were in NY for some reason. My mistake. 

[jay87shot]

We have had some really good bullpen but this one without Hader or Devin is by far the deepest. Maybe added in Yoho (or Henderson) come September and just let him throw in the blowouts to get adjusted to big league hitters. 

We have 5 guys (Uribe, Miller, Koenig, Ashby, Mears) that I would be OK with in the 8th inning of a playoff game. Add in Misi possibly if they decide to use him in the pen come playoffs.

[Sugarrayray]

Man I love me a platoon proof set-up man.

I will also say - even though Miller doesn’t have much experience closing, I’m very relieved they got someone with at least a modest amount of recent closing experience. I am a big fan of Uribe, but I do not trust him yet mentally to close games if that need happened to arise.

[wiguy94]

9th - Megill

8th - Uribe

7th - Miller

LH MRP- Koenig

RH MRP - Mears, Anderson

Multi-inning RP - Ashby, Hall

Who loses their spot when Zastryzny comes off the IL or are the Brewers going to milk his rehab assignment until rosters expand in September?

[AKCheesehead]

Nothing against Zastryzny, he's done very well for us in his limited action this year and last.  With that said, I'd be surprised to see him take any of those guys' spot, provided they remain healthy and effective. Also if I recall correctly, he's on a minor league contract that he signed with NYY before we paid them for him.  So we could stash him in AAA as much as we want, yes?  Someone correct me if I'm mistaken. 

[wiguy94]

29 minutes ago, AKCheesehead said:

Nothing against Zastryzny, he's done very well for us in his limited action this year and last.  With that said, I'd be surprised to see him take any of those guys' spot, provided they remain healthy and effective. Also if I recall correctly, he's on a minor league contract that he signed with NYY before we paid them for him.  So we could stash him in AAA as much as we want, yes?  Someone correct me if I'm mistaken. 

Zastryzny is on the 40-man roster and has no options left. No stashing him in AAA without putting him through waivers.

[SRB]

Anderson still has an option so I imagine he gets sent down for Zastryzny, in part just to give Anderson some rest.

[wiguy94]

23 hours ago, SRB said:

Anderson still has an option so I imagine he gets sent down for Zastryzny, in part just to give Anderson some rest.

Feel like Brewers would rather stick him on the 15-Day IL than option him because he didn't burn his option yet this season and I imagine the Brewers don't want him to burn his final option.