Brewers-Cubs NLDS Game Four Thread - 10/9/2025 @ 8:08PM

[willie key]

1 minute ago, adambr2 said:

They totally had me fooled after 2 games that this time was different. I’ll give them that.

Yep.   Had us all fooled.     

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

1 minute ago, adambr2 said:

Momentum is not fake. There’s a reason why teams who come back from 0-2 are 10-7 in game 5.

The reason is: statistical variance. 

[HarryDoyle]

6 minutes ago, bm1090 said:

He put together a good AB in his first at bat. I think 12 pitches. Second AB he was asked to bunt and got it down, Durbin probably would have scored if he didn’t stop. He wasn’t good. But he was fine. I wouldn’t rank him in the top 10 if we were making a list of issues.

12 pitch at bats don't really matter a whole lot if you still can't get on base.

[RobertCrawley]

The negative fan: We are terrible and we will lose.

So if they are right, they have the (small, I would say) satisfaction of knowing they were right.

If they are wrong, they are happy!

It's a no lose situation.

[ReverendBrewmeister]

“Momentum is only as good as the next day’s starter." (Attributed to Earl Weaver.)

That seems to be the issue in these games. Cubs had a disastrous start in Game 1, but followed it up with a bad start in Game 2. But then the Brewers had consecutive starts from Priester and Peralta in Games 3 and 4 that set both those games into holes that weren't climbed out of.

Who knows what the start of Game 5 will be like. But if whoever starts can actually get through 1–3 innings without giving up runs, that will turn the whole matter. But both teams can be thinking the same thing, based on how the first four games have gone.

[RobertCrawley]

Just now, ReverendBrewmeister said:

“Momentum is only as good as the next day’s starter." (Attributed to Earl Weaver.)

That seems to be the issue in these games. Cubs had a disastrous start in Game 1, but followed it up with a bad start in Game 2. But then the Brewers had consecutive starts from Priester and Peralta in Games 3 and 4 that set both those games into holes that weren't climbed out of.

Who knows what the start of Game 5 will be like. But if whoever starts can actually get through 1–3 innings without giving up runs, that will turn the whole matter. But both teams can be thinking the same thing, based on how the first four games have gone.

He was not wrong, and I wonder how we are going to set up our pitching for Saturday. Anyone have a good idea about this?

[HarryDoyle]

1 minute ago, RobertCrawley said:

He was not wrong, and I wonder how we are going to set up our pitching for Saturday. Anyone have a good idea about this?

Nobody does, including Murphy.

[beekay414]

6 minutes ago, HarryDoyle said:

12 pitch at bats don't really matter a whole lot if you still can't get on base.

And strikeout on ball 4

[HarryDoyle]

 

[Jim French Stepstool]

32 minutes ago, RobertCrawley said:

He was not wrong, and I wonder how we are going to set up our pitching for Saturday. Anyone have a good idea about this?

I can only say what I'd do:

Ashby or Quintana for a start & a couple innings. I know Ashby worked some today, but he's worked back-to-back several times so I think he easily could do it. Both probably get used either way.

I think a bigger issue is how they parse out the rest. Best case scenario, Patrick & Misiorowski could cover fifteen outs, more if Miz is locating & getting ahead in the count like he did in Pittsburgh. Patrick might be a darkhorse for the start.

I'm not so sure we don't see Priester for an inning.

Another thing to keep in mind: Uribe has mostly been in mothballs for a long time. He could go two.

Anderson, Koenig, Mears---despite the uncertainty there's more than enough to cover nine effectively.

[RobertCrawley]

4 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

I can only say what I'd do:

Ashby or Quintana for a start & a couple innings. I know Ashby worked some today, but he's worked back-to-back several times so I think he easily could do it. Both probably get used either way.

I think a bigger issue is how they parse out the rest. Best case scenario, Patrick & Misiorowski could cover fifteen outs, more if Miz is locating & getting ahead in the count like he did in Pittsburgh. Patrick might be a darkhorse for the start.

I'm not so sure we don't see Priester for an inning.

Another thing to keep in mind: Uribe has mostly been in mothballs for a long time. He could go two.

Anderson, Koenig, Mears---despite the uncertainty there's more than enough to cover nine effectively.

It's going to be messy.

[Jim French Stepstool]

Lather, rinse, repeat---the similarity between Peralta & Priester in the opening inning was stunning.

One out, and a 'no big deal' ground ball single by Hoerner. I guess that means we have to lose our water & walk Tucker on four straight. The 1st inning HRs sucked the last two days, but what preceded & followed them was just as bad IMO. Set a horrible tone.

I couldn't help but compare it to when Palencia entered the game to face Chourio. Here's a guy who turned around 101MPH for a HR in game two. But Palencia went right after him. First pitch pop up. I don't have numbers in front of me, but in the latter stages of the season it seemed like our pitchers nibbled more than previously. Saturday, be more aggressive in the zone early in the ABs.

[Jim French Stepstool]

6 minutes ago, RobertCrawley said:

It's going to be messy.

Not if we can work from ahead in the count. The problem will be length, unless Patrick or Miz can be effective. If they go with one of the lefties early, a scoreless first would be refreshing. Might even be invigorating.

[RobertCrawley]

1 minute ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Not if we can work from ahead in the count. The problem will be length, unless Patrick or Miz can be effective. If they go with one of the lefties early, a scoreless first would be refreshing. Might even be invigorating.

Unusual, for sure.

[Jim French Stepstool]

42 minutes ago, HarryDoyle said:

 

I didn't mind leaving him in to sacrifice. Bank on Yelich or Chourio to drive in a pair & make it a one-run game. Had Murphy pulled out a crystal ball & saw us giving up three more runs then he probably hits for him.

[wiguy94]

Brewers have 3 positions players (Yelich, Vaughn, Contreras) that had started a road playoff game and 3 pitchers (Peralta, Quintana, Ashby) that had pitched in a road playoff game heading into these two games at Wrigley. Feel like the away crowd atmosphere might have messed with a lot of the guys. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

1 hour ago, HarryDoyle said:

12 pitch at bats don't really matter a whole lot if you still can't get on base.

Actually, that was a very good AB by Lockridge that unfortunately ended badly. If several guys put up 7, 8. 9 pitch ABs like that on a consistent basis it can turn games. It's bitten Peralta on the backside many times over the years. It hurt him today, to an extent.

I'm not defending him starting game two, though.

[wiguy94]

8 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Actually, that was a very good AB by Lockridge that unfortunately ended badly. If several guys put up 7, 8. 9 pitch ABs like that on a consistent basis it can turn games. It's bitten Peralta on the backside many times over the years. It hurt him today, to an extent.

I'm not defending him starting game two, though.

In the regular season, sure. Against a legit ace level pitcher in the postseason, sure. Just don’t think it makes much of a difference driving up the pitch count of pitchers like Boyd, Imanaga, or Taillon in the playoffs. None of those guys are going to have leashes that let them go deep into playoff starts. Taillon was pulled at 75 pitches yesterday and Boyd was pulled at 67 pitches today.

[Bulldogboy]

1 hour ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

I didn't mind leaving him in to sacrifice. Bank on Yelich or Chourio to drive in a pair & make it a one-run game. Had Murphy pulled out a crystal ball & saw us giving up three more runs then he probably hits for him.

The fact there was no thought tells you he's in over his head. Best case scenario you are still probably down one with one less out to work with. Just to keep Ortiz in? It's not a good look.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

2 hours ago, RobertCrawley said:

The negative fan: We are terrible and we will lose.

So if they are right, they have the (small, I would say) satisfaction of knowing they were right.

If they are wrong, they are happy!

It's a no lose situation.

Yeah...no. 

It's the realistic fan. It's the fan that's expecting history to repeat itself. Because it's all that has happened to this franchise since the dawn of time. 

I've accepted that destiny is for 30k depressed Brewers fans to silently file out of AmFam while Craig Counsel is doused in Gatorade and chants of Let's Go Cubbies echo off the roof. 

 

 

 

 

[Jim French Stepstool]

49 minutes ago, Bulldogboy said:

The fact there was no thought tells you he's in over his head. Best case scenario you are still probably down one with one less out to work with. Just to keep Ortiz in? It's not a good look.

 

Ortiz was 'kept in' because at that time Murphy would've been happy with making it a one-run game, and Ortiz was more than capable of advancing the runners into scoring position w/one out & two of the better hitters on the team looming. No one is 'in over his head', except apparently Yelich in the following AB.

Check around. You seldom if ever see a manager make moves like that in the fifth inning, when you have the same spots in the order coming around again in a couple innings & you only have four or five position players, and only one of them a MINF. It may have been part of the reason Vaughn was held back until the 9th inning in game 3.

The A's did that in the 70s. they had three or four guys who could play 2B, none of them particularly good hitters, and would often PH for them. But that was when you had seven position players on your bench. Usually the only early moves these days are when you more-or-less script it, like Counsell the other day when he waited for a RHP so he could then insert Busch.

 

[Jim French Stepstool]

2 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

In the regular season, sure. Against a legit ace level pitcher in the postseason, sure. Just don’t think it makes much of a difference driving up the pitch count of pitchers like Boyd, Imanaga, or Taillon in the playoffs. None of those guys are going to have leashes that let them go deep into playoff starts. Taillon was pulled at 75 pitches yesterday and Boyd was pulled at 67 pitches today.

In situations like that you're right, it isn't as consequential if he doesn't reach. I just have a hard time lumping a twelve-pitch AB someone puts up, with one where you're totally overmatched or chase three pitches & sit down or whatever. I thought what he did was impressive despite the result.

[adambr2]

8 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

In situations like that you're right, it isn't as consequential if he doesn't reach. I just have a hard time lumping a twelve-pitch AB someone puts up, with one where you're totally overmatched or chase three pitches & sit down or whatever. I thought what he did was impressive despite the result.

It “feels” better than a first pitch pop up to 2nd. It’s not really any more consequential in a playoff series with days off after almost each game and short starter leashes. 

My summary of it would be that carrying Brandon Lockridge on the playoff roster hasn’t in any way contributed to winning the series.

I believe Murphy thought he had the series won after two games. And got cute with his Game 3 lineup, rather than trying to finish the series off there.

He had numerous opportunities in Game 3 to go for the offensive kill punch and didn’t do it.

[Frisbee Slider]

Home field advantage seems to be a real thing this series. Milwaukee will be ready tomorrow.

[HarryDoyle]

4 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

I didn't mind leaving him in to sacrifice. Bank on Yelich or Chourio to drive in a pair & make it a one-run game. Had Murphy pulled out a crystal ball & saw us giving up three more runs then he probably hits for him.

Isn't that something a manager must take into account when making in game decisions instead of just assuming the Cubs won't score again?