Byron Buxton

[Brock Beauchamp]

8 hours ago, gregmag said:

Well, you’re not discounting Pena, but then you are. First you literally discount him by saying he’s in the “20 to 70 range” of MLB prospects, which is kind of like saying that the Brewers were one of the top three or so teams in the NL Central last year. Then you say Pena would be a reach for Buxton. Then you say not wanting to trade Pena for Buxton amounts to “prospect hugging,” which BTW is every bit as mature and nuanced as just calling you a Twins homer and being done with it.

No, I said people were prospect hugging because people said Buxton's trade value is salary relief. There's a million miles between Luis Pena and "salary relief". People look at Buxton's injury history, which is legit, but then ignore that he has been something like the 22nd most valuable position player by fWAR over the past two seasons. He's not just good, he's elite.

And Luis Pena IS a 20-70 prospect. Maybe more like a "20-50" prospect if you want to split hairs, but prospects shouldn't be put into small buckets. Luis Pena is a highly-regarded player in the low minors who has a ton of upside and a low floor. He also struggled in the second half of 2025. In August, Keith Law put him at #37 on his top 100.

I'm high on Pena, I certainly wouldn't trade him for Buxton. But there are legitimate questions about him, especially on defense.

[Jopal78]

14 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

No, I said people were prospect hugging because people said Buxton's trade value is salary relief. There's a million miles between Luis Pena and "salary relief". People look at Buxton's injury history, which is legit, but then ignore that he has been something like the 22nd most valuable position player by fWAR over the past two seasons. He's not just good, he's elite.

And Luis Pena IS a 20-70 prospect. Maybe more like a "20-50" prospect if you want to split hairs, but prospects shouldn't be put into small buckets. Luis Pena is a highly-regarded player in the low minors who has a ton of upside and a low floor. He also struggled in the second half of 2025. In August, Keith Law put him at #37 on his top 100.

I'm high on Pena, I certainly wouldn't trade him for Buxton. But there are legitimate questions about him, especially on defense.

Yeah, and there’s a reason an “elite” player is making less AAV than Rhys Hoskins, because it’s a given he’s going to miss at least 2-3 months with injuries (maybe more) every year.

No way around it, his injuries make his guarantee dead weight;  which in turn is the only reason the Twins would shop him in the first place (they prefer the salary relief to the intrinsic value of a flawed star player on a rebuilding team). 

[Brock Beauchamp]

10 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Yeah, and there’s a reason an “elite” player is making less AAV than Rhys Hoskins, because it’s a given he’s going to miss at least 2-3 months with injuries (maybe more) every year.

No way around it, his injuries make his guarantee dead weight;  which in turn is the only reason the Twins would shop him in the first place (they prefer the salary relief to the intrinsic value of a flawed star player on a rebuilding team). 

Over the past two seasons, he has been paid $30m and been worth 9 fWAR. Your valuation of Buxton is bonkers. In the past nine seasons (basically his entire full-time playing career), he has been worth 3+ fWAR in six of them. And one of the three sub-3 fWAR seasons was the 60-game COVID season. Your valuation of Buxton simply is not based in reality.

The Twins are considering a trade because their owners are incompetent and failing. They've put the team in massive debt, to the point literally one-third of the team's valuation is under debt from other businesses. There's a reason they're bringing in minority partners; they literally need money. It's pathetic, really.

If the owners weren't so bad, there is a zero percent chance a Buxton trade is even a consideration.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Buxton’s injury history is why he’s probably available for the right price. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

44 minutes ago, KCBrewerfan34 said:

Buxton’s injury history is why he’s probably available for the right price. 

As I mentioned above, it's because Twins ownership is awful and really, really bad at their jobs. They're third generation nepo babies who have put the team in massive debt. It's why the Twins have gone from a $160m payroll three years ago to probably around $100m in 2026.

[ghostdrew]

I'd rather have Garrett Mitchell 

[nate82]

I would trade for Buxton but I don’t think the Brewers and Twins are good trade partners for this trade.

Now if Brooks Lee became available now we can talk about a fit.  Yes he wasn’t the greatest last year.  But Lee at 3B with Durbin and Ortiz splitting time at 2B that would be a good offense and defense.  Probably would have to do a Pena plus deal to get Lee.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Hah, I just noticed BF has a Buxton article queued in the next few minutes. Before you all blame me, I had nothing to do with it. Getting out in front of this. 😁

[Jopal78]

4 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Over the past two seasons, he has been paid $30m and been worth 9 fWAR. Your valuation of Buxton is bonkers. In the past nine seasons (basically his entire full-time playing career), he has been worth 3+ fWAR in six of them. And one of the three sub-3 fWAR seasons was the 60-game COVID season. Your valuation of Buxton simply is not based in reality.

The Twins are considering a trade because their owners are incompetent and failing. They've put the team in massive debt, to the point literally one-third of the team's valuation is under debt from other businesses. There's a reason they're bringing in minority partners; they literally need money. It's pathetic, really.

If the owners weren't so bad, there is a zero percent chance a Buxton trade is even a consideration.

It doesn’t really matter what his WAR is vis an vis his salary. Buxton will play 90+ games a season if his team gets lucky. 
 

Functionally, it really means a  team needs two players for whatever position they have Buxton penciled in, because years and years of history, tell us he is likely to miss multiple months with injuries. 
 

To us fans it all seems like Monopoly money, but the reality is the Twins have $45 million dollars guaranteed to superstar who can’t be counted on to be healthy, not to mention injury prone players typically dont get healthier as they age.
 

That’s why I don’t see a bevy of teams lining up to take on a $45 million commitment not knowing how many games they’re going to get out of the player.  I’ll grant you there’s one or two teams that may be willing take a $45 million gamble, but if that’s case, what’s the return for the Twins? Salary relief. 

As a further example, look what the Cubs got last year for Cody Bellinger (30.5 career bWAR in 4200 ABs); you’re really going to argue that an oft injured Buxton (29.8 career bWAR in  3100 ABs) is so far superior to Bellinger to warrant premium prospects  in return? (So you don’t have to check, the Yankees sent Cody Poteet to the Cubs who they then released in spring training.) 

[tmwiese55]

But all that is what makes him available and only 15 mil per year. Bellinger is likely going to be 3-4X total commitment than what Buxton is.    But in general I'm in agreeance he shouldn't require "premium" prospects to acquire, especially since everyone knows MNs financial issue right now.   So, someone might beat what I'd be willing to give up for him, so be it.  But he is not going to be just a salary dump either. you'll have to give something. 

But mostly I was just going to add that in the last few posts talks of how you need to plan two people, plan for his absences and have depth for it, etc.  Well, that is exactly what the Brewers are, we are probably the best team in baseball to hit that mark with how we value quality depth.  Multiple ok 4th outfield types who play good D so when they fill in for 2-3 weeks they won't kill you.  Perkins/Collins/Mitchell if healthy are perfect for that. Though probably fair to assume one would go back to MN in a trade.   If a move like this were to happen the key is having him healthy for October. So IL stints or routine maintenance days should be planned. A guy like Perkins is kind of the perfect fit for that situation. 

[Outlander]

All this discussion and Rosenthal now saying that the Twins are keeping their stars.

Link

 

[Frisbee Slider]

1 hour ago, Outlander said:

All this discussion and Rosenthal now saying that the Twins are keeping their stars.

Link

 

But are they cracking the door open or fretting over payroll?

[Outlander]

I know that was in blue but their payroll is low even with Buxton and Lopez so even Rosenthal doesn't think they should fret over payroll. Even though Buxton is their second highest paid players, it is still at a very reasonable $15 million for three years. If a team like the Brewers really wanted him they should hold out for a guy like Pena instead of some of the mid level prospects being mentioned. The Brewers are not doing a huge favor by taking Buxton off their hands.

[PBTank]

I’ve had this thought for quite some time. 
 

Brewers receive:

Ryan & Buxton

Twins receive:

1. Pena (or Pratt)

2&3:  Any two P not named Peralta, Woodruff, Miz, Preister, or Uribe. 
4: OF not named Frelick or Chourio. 
5: Mears