NFL Wild Card Round: Packers @ Bears on January 10th at 7:00 PM

[homer]

5 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

He will fail in any of those places besides maybe Arizona because there isn't a QB. He could possibly be the guy to resurrect Murray, Dart maybe in NYG?

Even those moribund franchises, their dream is to win the Super Bowl. It would make more sense to find the next Reid or McVay rather than a retread that didn't win his conference with Aaron Rodgers. I think you are probably right, but it makes no sense to me. 

I just don't see what makes LaFleur an attractive candidate. 

He's built good offenses with two different QBs. Hiring LaFleur and signing Malik Willis might not be a bad way to go for a team.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

2 minutes ago, homer said:

He's built good offenses with two different QBs. Hiring LaFleur and signing Malik Willis might not be a bad way to go for a team.

He'd have to get fired first and my gut feeling is that Policy has already told him he's more or less okay. 

I believe they will retool one more time and try to address what they can, hope that Parsons can join them and some point and be as effective, and hope next year is luckier than this. Golden sure looked like the guy to be opposite Watson next year. 

[homer]

3 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

He'd have to get fired first and my gut feeling is that Policy has already told him he's more or less okay. 

I believe they will retool one more time and try to address what they can, hope that Parsons can join them and some point and be as effective, and hope next year is luckier than this. Golden sure looked like the guy to be opposite Watson next year. 

yeah no kidding hed have to get fired. we're talking hypotheticals.

[Vgmastr]

What a ridiculous stat, master choke artists

[HarryDoyle]

19 minutes ago, Vgmastr said:

What a ridiculous stat, master choke artists

And guess what game that one loss was.

[Jimbo]

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/win_prob.cgi

Not sure how accurate this calculator is, but I'm using it.

 

Week 16: Prior to the onside kickoff, win prob = 98.6%

WC: @ 5:37 Chicago 4th-and-8, win prob = 99.7%

 

Losing one game, it happens.  Losing both, no longer bad luck.  Now a matter of coaching/execution/whatever.

 

[Jopal78]

12 hours ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

I don't get the notion of LaFleur being a hot name that can "cash in" elsewhere. Not saying it isn't true, but I don't understand who is looking at what he's done where and thinking, oh man, yes, let's get that guy!

76-40. Jesus *****,  in a retread league (where posters in this very thread have argued for hiring John Harbaugh and Robert Saleh) you HONESTLY believe a guy with a .654 winning percentage won’t be the hot hire? Okay then. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

14 hours ago, homer said:

 

 

On this same play, the TE was wide open with a capital W in the deep flat (entire secondary on his side of the field had collapsed into the endzone chasing receivers).  He wouldn't have scored, but it was an easy throw and would he would have easily been able to get inside the 10 and get out of bounds, likely giving the Packers 2 more plays to score a TD.

I get that Love went for the HR on this throw and for his part, he made a good enough throw in an impossible window for it actually to be completed (Watson didn't come out of his break at full speed and it was just a bit out of sync). that's likely his primary read on the play and it had a shot - and if I remember correctly this was the play where the clock started running so it had to be snapped quickly.  However, I think for him to get to the next level, Love's got to understand what the entire defense is going to do in coverage, know he's got an easy pitch and catch to the boundary that sets the team up for better chances at a TD throw, and make the easy play.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Mentioned it at the time the plays were made, but the two huge 1st down catches on the Packer drive that resulted in the missed FG from Doubs and Golden also were unfortunate in a way, because they wound up out of bounds and stopped the clock without the Bears needing to burn timeouts.  Both really couldn't be avoided (Doubs slid out of bounds on the over the shoulder diving catch, and Golden was running a hard out to the sideline).  Had either of those plays stayed in bounds, forcing the Bears to burn a timeout to preserve 40 seconds of clock on a 1st down conversion, I think the outcome of what was still another epic Packer collapse would have wound up being a win.  Both of them staying in bounds, and I think the Packers could've all but kneeled away the final minutes before even having to attempt that field goal.   

 

Not anywhere close to the main reason they lost - just one of those "of course" observations I made that was reinforcing the fact this team was incapable of closing when it mattered most, and whatever could go wrong at that stage of the game did (even with positive plays).

[OldSchoolSnapper]

10 hours ago, Jimbo said:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/win_prob.cgi

Not sure how accurate this calculator is, but I'm using it.

 

Week 16: Prior to the onside kickoff, win prob = 98.6%

WC: @ 5:37 Chicago 4th-and-8, win prob = 99.7%

 

Losing one game, it happens.  Losing both, no longer bad luck.  Now a matter of coaching/execution/whatever.

 

They hit 94% in Cleveland as well. LaFleur cannot manage a clock or play situational football. He can't be a HC. He also nearly caused them to lose in Dallas (another game they blew a two score lead) - and I don't want to hear that it was Love on the final play - because it was Matt's management a minute earlier that caused all the chaos in the first place. 

The only defense I will offer MLF is the mantra going around that we'd miss the playoffs under the old rules is a bit disingenuous. The Packers played the last game of the year like a bye week last year and this year - they don't do that unless the spot is already wrapped up. Last year in particular, they won 11 games, which gets you in easily about 99% of years. In '23, being the 7 seed was seen as a major success of a season during a rebuilding year. This year, they are easily playing for the #2 or #3 in the last week if it made sense to do so. It's kind of one those lying statistics.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

6 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

On this same play, the TE was wide open with a capital W in the deep flat (entire secondary on his side of the field had collapsed into the endzone chasing receivers).  He wouldn't have scored, but it was an easy throw and would he would have easily been able to get inside the 10 and get out of bounds, likely giving the Packers 2 more plays to score a TD.

I get that Love went for the HR on this throw and for his part, he made a good enough throw in an impossible window for it actually to be completed (Watson didn't come out of his break at full speed and it was just a bit out of sync). that's likely his primary read on the play and it had a shot - and if I remember correctly this was the play where the clock started running so it had to be snapped quickly.  However, I think for him to get to the next level, Love's got to understand what the entire defense is going to do in coverage, know he's got an easy pitch and catch to the boundary that sets the team up for better chances at a TD throw, and make the easy play.

Idk man, it's hard for me to say that wasn't an incredible throw. That's a catchable, yes difficult, but catchable ball for Watson placed in the only spot it can be. Not the kind where you're mad he doesn't get it, but with no timeouts, I can't feel any kind of way that Love threw that ball. It actually ticks me off reading all the nonsense about how he "doesn't have the X factor." That pass is all of those things.

[Brewin]

Most of this thread is difficult to get my head around. I understand the frustration with MLF, but anyone who thinks he wouldn't be at the top of the list of coaching candidates if GB fired him is not living in reality. The guys won basically 2/3 of his games as a NFL coach and not all of that was solely due to our previous HOF QB.

He is extremely highly regarding in the league as an excellent QB developer and offensive mind.

Despite MLF's reputation, I would be fine with a change, even though I think it's unlikely to occur. All the buzz is around Harbaugh but the guy I would prefer is Stefanski. I have a strong preference for offensive minded coaches given todays NFL landscape.

 

[adambr2]

6 minutes ago, Brewin said:

Most of this thread is difficult to get my head around. I understand the frustration with MLF, but anyone who thinks he wouldn't be at the top of the list of coaching candidates if GB fired him is not living in reality. The guys won basically 2/3 of his games as a NFL coach and not all of that was solely due to our previous HOF QB.

He is extremely highly regarding in the league as an excellent QB developer and offensive mind.

Despite MLF's reputation, I would be fine with a change, even though I think it's unlikely to occur. All the buzz is around Harbaugh but the guy I would prefer is Stefanski. I have a strong preference for offensive minded coaches given todays NFL landscape.

 

You can have a reputation for QB development, for offensive scheming, for a strong regular season record, and also a reputation for not being able to keep your team focused and composed when adversity happens. All of those things can be true at the same time, and all are part of MLF’s identity.

In no way should panic be setting in for both the coaching staff and players with a 15 point 4th quarter lead. That’s the reality we live in and the reality we saw Saturday night.

Blown leads happen. To blow so many double digit leads in the same season — when you’re melting down in the face of ANY adversity almost inevitably, you really do have to examine a culture change.

 

[homer]

Just now, adambr2 said:

You can have a reputation for QB development, for offensive scheming, for a strong regular season record, and also a reputation for not being able to keep your team focused and composed when adversity happens. All of those things can be true at the same time, and all are part of MLF’s identity.

In no way should panic be setting in for both the coaching staff and players with a 15 point 4th quarter lead. That’s the reality we live in and the reality we saw Saturday night.

Blown leads happen. To blow so many double digit leads in the same season — when you’re melting down in the face of ANY adversity almost inevitably, you really do have to examine a culture change.

 

All of that can be true, and he can still be respected enough around the league to get another immediate opportunity if Green Bay decides to move on.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

16 minutes ago, Brewin said:

Most of this thread is difficult to get my head around. I understand the frustration with MLF, but anyone who thinks he wouldn't be at the top of the list of coaching candidates if GB fired him is not living in reality. The guys won basically 2/3 of his games as a NFL coach and not all of that was solely due to our previous HOF QB.

He is extremely highly regarding in the league as an excellent QB developer and offensive mind.

Despite MLF's reputation, I would be fine with a change, even though I think it's unlikely to occur. All the buzz is around Harbaugh but the guy I would prefer is Stefanski. I have a strong preference for offensive minded coaches given todays NFL landscape.

 

It's fine if people want to make a case for him. But let's be serious about it. His best seasons came when Rodgers had a chip on his shoulder because we drafted Love. He responded by winning two MVPs and throwing nearly 50 TD passes.

That era accounted for MLF going 39-10. It can't just be glossed over by saying "Well that wasn't all Aaron." It is pretty obvious it was almost entirely Aaron. He has one losing year at 8-9 where Aaron is clearly hurt (and just old), which again had playoff expectations in preseason and they suddenly aren't so great anymore.

He is 29-21 without Aaron Rodgers. That's OK, above average even. It's not "super hot candidate" great.

A super hot candidate is always a coordinator from a dominant unit, a la Aaron Glenn or Ben Johnson. I think most teams would be looking for that, not a guy that hasn't won playoff games with even the best hand at the table.

But let's say he is at the top of the list. The Packers shouldn't be in the sandbox for candidates with Arizona, Tennessee and New York. They are looking for a coach to get them into title contention. I don't think MLF would be a hot candidate for any of those kinds of openings, granted they open up a lot less frequently.

[adambr2]

9 minutes ago, homer said:

All of that can be true, and he can still be respected enough around the league to get another immediate opportunity if Green Bay decides to move on.

That’s absolutely fine. I expect he will. I don’t know why people care what he does after this or how many other parties will be calling.

Harbaugh’s phone has been blowing up the last week. It doesn’t mean that the Ravens were wrong or should be getting cold feet.

[adambr2]

Hoping this is just kind of a prelude to them eventually saying they couldn’t work out a contract and had to part ways just to save face.

I’ll be honest, I’m pretty much done for now if they give him a big extension. I’ll still pay attention in a casual way like I follow Badger basketball. But I’m not going to go spend my money attending games, get my hopes up, just to go through another inevitable choke job next year. Nah. Just not worth getting that emotionally invested anymore.

[DR28]

What a ******* joke, if we keep him.

Kevin Stefanski please.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

4 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Hoping this is just kind of a prelude to them eventually saying they couldn’t work out a contract and had to part ways just to save face.

I’ll be honest, I’m pretty much done for now if they give him a big extension. I’ll still pay attention in a casual way like I follow Badger basketball. But I’m not going to go spend my money attending games, get my hopes up, just to go through another inevitable choke job next year. Nah. Just not worth getting that emotionally invested anymore.

I thought the tea leaves were pretty obvious he wasn't getting fired. 

-Policy was on his hiring committee

-He expressed support in the final weeks, offering up their perseverance in the face of a rash of injuries as praise for MLF

-They said the decision would not be based on Saturday's game beforehand

-He wouldn't have said anything at all if firing were on the table

-And to me, the biggest reason: Whether or not they are, they think they're close. If you bring in someone new, that's starting at zero with scheme, style, culture, etc. You are going to have to give that new guy at LEAST two seasons. They don't want to wait, they want to do it now. I think that's a mistake, but I think that's their position. 

I'm with you though. I'm a casual next year if this season doesn't get a guy fired, simply because there is no chance they are winning it with MLF. If they weren't expected to contend it would be one thing to find some value in a rebuild, they are now accepting purgatory and yeah, I'm out. I already consciously stopped buying tickets to games, but I'll be a box score checker if this plays out like this.

[adambr2]

14 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

I thought the tea leaves were pretty obvious he wasn't getting fired. 

-Policy was on his hiring committee

-He expressed support in the final weeks, offering up their perseverance in the face of a rash of injuries as praise for MLF

-They said the decision would not be based on Saturday's game beforehand

-He wouldn't have said anything at all if firing were on the table

-And to me, the biggest reason: Whether or not they are, they think they're close. If you bring in someone new, that's starting at zero with scheme, style, culture, etc. You are going to have to give that new guy at LEAST two seasons. They don't want to wait, they want to do it now. I think that's a mistake, but I think that's their position. 

I'm with you though. I'm a casual next year if this season doesn't get a guy fired, simply because there is no chance they are winning it with MLF. If they weren't expected to contend it would be one thing to find some value in a rebuild, they are now accepting purgatory and yeah, I'm out. I already consciously stopped buying tickets to games, but I'll be a box score checker if this plays out like this.

I’m flabbergasted why they think they need to give a new guy two seasons before they see results. It’s not a rebuilding roster. Are they seriously afraid  that someone else is going to come in and go 6-11 with this roster? 

Did Ben Johnson and Liam Coen need two seasons?

The ending to this season gave the Packers the perfect excuse to bail on this guy. Now if you stick with him, you’re setting yourself up for a complete nightmare of a scenario going forward.

The same thing is going to happen next season. We 90% know it. Playoffs, and then some catastrophic exit in January with MLF under the microscope. Only now you’re stuck, because you gave him a long-term deal and they’re not going to eat it all. The same issue they have if they bring in someone new, being stuck with him a couple years, is the same issue they have with keeping MLF.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

5 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

I’m flabbergasted why they think they need to give a new guy two seasons before they see results. It’s not a rebuilding roster. Are they seriously afraid  that someone else is going to come in and go 6-11 with this roster? 

Did Ben Johnson and Liam Coen need two seasons?

The ending to this season gave the Packers the perfect excuse to bail on this guy. Now if you stick with him, you’re setting yourself up for a complete nightmare of a scenario going forward.

The same thing is going to happen next season. We 90% know it. Playoffs, and then some catastrophic exit in January with MLF under the microscope. Only now you’re stuck, because you gave him a long-term deal and they’re not going to eat it all. The same issue they have if they bring in someone new, being stuck with him a couple years, is the same issue they have with keeping MLF.

It's not that they'd need 2 seasons to be OK, but they aren't going to fire the guy after 1 year if he goes 10-7 and loses the WC. Ben Johnson and Liam Coen are great, but they probably aren't going to win the Super Bowl (Coen isn't), either. If the expectation is to win NOW, it's not a fair expectation to put that on a first-year coach. It can happen, but it's unlikely. Perhaps misguidedly, they think they can win it right this moment, and that MLF is the most realistic path there.

Me? I'd say that if they hit on the hire, they'd at least a better chance than doing it with MLF. I don't think he's the "we have a good chance with him" coach that they do.

[OldHeidelberg]

It was reported that they offered him less than 10 million/year on his new deal and that was the holdup. Does that number go up after Saturday night? It would have if not for a spectacular choke by a "disheveled" team, but for now I would say let's see how it plays out this week. 

[adambr2]

3 minutes ago, OldHeidelberg said:

It was reported that they offered him less than 10 million/year on his new deal and that was the holdup. Does that number go up after Saturday night? It would have if not for a spectacular choke by a "disheveled" team, but for now I would say let's see how it plays out this week. 

He didn’t exactly strengthen his bargaining position Saturday night.

I am holding out some hope (but only maybe 20%, at best) that this is mostly a ruse and Policy doesn’t intend to offer him anything he’ll accept, basically letting him save face and look like it was financials that kept him from coming back and not the fact that he’s the biggest choke artist in the NFL.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

6 minutes ago, OldHeidelberg said:

It was reported that they offered him less than 10 million/year on his new deal and that was the holdup. Does that number go up after Saturday night? It would have if not for a spectacular choke by a "disheveled" team, but for now I would say let's see how it plays out this week. 

This feels like the twilight zone. I can't fathom multiple execs thinking this guy is worth $10 million a year.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Say they extend Lafleur - by all indications Hafley's gone, plus the Dolphins may poach some other well-regarded assistants for their own organization at higher roles.  Does Policy really want Lafleur to run this back AND help with naming a new defensive coordinator and adding new assistants elsewhere on the team?  Plus firing his buddy who "runs" special teams?  We've been down that road before and nobody liked it.

If Gute is sticking around, I'll shrug my shoulders and be ok with it, particularly if he's a lame duck.  Honestly, if Policy doesn't want to "fire" LaFleur, the better play would be for him to go back on what he said about not wanting both coach and GM to be on lame duck contracts next season, cite injuries, and they both return on the last year of their deals in 2026 - I'd much rather to that than extend LaFleur right now.