NL Central Discussion 2026

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

31 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

IMHO this is an example of advanced statistics being grossly misused.

Winning baseball games and scoring runs involves a lot more than hitting the ball the hardest. Many times just putting the ball in play has value  

Has anyone studied the correlation between team hard hit ball percentage and team runs scored. 

Just the fact that the statistic completely forgives strikeouts to me severely limits its value for evaluating a team’s offense. 

Definitely agree with this. Reminds me of the AI parable where you ask an agent to help you make as many paperclips as possible. If that's the only directive, the AI will, in theory, do things like kill all humans in order to end international law in order to extract as much metal as possible, in order to fulfill the directive.

Sometimes, when you isolate one variable, you lose the whole bedrock of context that makes that variable meaningful in the first place.

I think anyone who's watched the Cubs' offense can admit it's more talented than the Brewers'. That team can hit, but the Brewers lineup has certain advantage that revolve around patience and contact, rather than SLG. 

[Brewcrew82]

40 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

IMHO this is an example of advanced statistics being grossly misused.

Winning baseball games and scoring runs involves a lot more than hitting the ball the hardest. Many times just putting the ball in play has value  

Has anyone studied the correlation between team hard hit ball percentage and team runs scored. 

Just the fact that the statistic completely forgives strikeouts to me severely limits its value for evaluating a team’s offense. 

I mean the Brewers strike out less as a team than the Cubs....

The stat you're referring which encompasses everything including strikeouts, walks, and quality of contact is xwOBA. Of which the Brewers have an identical one to the Cubs at .321....

[Brewcrew82]

12 minutes ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

Definitely agree with this. Reminds me of the AI parable where you ask an agent to help you make as many paperclips as possible. If that's the only directive, the AI will, in theory, do things like kill all humans in order to end international law in order to extract as much metal as possible, in order to fulfill the directive.

Sometimes, when you isolate one variable, you lose the whole bedrock of context that makes that variable meaningful in the first place.

I think anyone who's watched the Cubs' offense can admit it's more talented than the Brewers'. That team can hit, but the Brewers lineup has certain advantage that revolve around patience and contact, rather than SLG. 

I'm just saying if there is one area where the Cubs clearly have an advantage over the Brewers, you should look more to their defense (58 OAA vs. 7 OAA) and not really their hitting (.321 xWOBA vs. .321 xWOBA). At least from a metrics standpoint. 

[BruisedCrew]

11 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I mean the Brewers strike out less as a team than the Cubs....

The stat you're referring which encompasses everything including strikeouts, walks, and quality of contact is xwOBA. Of which the Brewers have an identical one to the Cubs at .321....

I am not referring to any advanced metric, and if I was looking for one it certainly wouldn’t be “Expected Weighted On Base Average”. 

I’m one of those older posters that one advanced metric devotee thinks “doesn’t believe in statistics”. 

I’m just using my eyes and simple mind to conclude that a team that has averaged just over 6 runs per game over the last 2 months has a much better offense than one that has averaged 4.38 runs per game  (4th lowest in the NL) over the same period. 

Maybe there is some fancy stat that can prove definitively that the Cubs have been extremely lucky and/or the Brewers have been unlucky. But I doubt it. 

[Brewcrew82]

12 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

I am not referring to any advanced metric, and if I was looking for one it certainly wouldn’t be “Expected Weighted On Base Average”. 

I’m one of those older posters that one advanced metric devotee thinks “doesn’t believe in statistics”. 

I’m just using my eyes and simple mind to conclude that a team that has averaged just over 6 runs per game over the last 2 months has a much better offense than one that has averaged 4.38 runs per game  (4th lowest in the NL) over the same period. 

Maybe there is some fancy stat that can prove definitively that the Cubs have been extremely lucky and/or the Brewers have been unlucky. But I doubt it. 

Oh you believe in statistics all right. You just like to manipulate them to fit your narrative such as cherrypicking runs per game over the last two months which just happens to neatly coincide with the end of the Cubs' ice cold stretch and the Brewers' worst stretch of the season. 

xwOBA is a comprehensive metric that encompasses contact and QOC. It's widely considered to be the best metric to measure expected offensive output. Professional baseball analysts use it. Dismiss it all you want because you don't like that it contradicts your never ending narrative, but it exists nevertheless. 

[BruisedCrew]

15 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Oh you believe in statistics all right. You just like to manipulate them to fit your narrative such as cherrypicking runs per game over the last two months which just happens to neatly coincide with the end of the Cubs' ice cold stretch and the Brewers' worst stretch of the season. 

xwOBA is a comprehensive metric that encompasses contact and QOC. It's widely considered to be the best metric to measure expected offensive output. Professional baseball analysts use it. Dismiss it all you want because you don't like that it contradicts your never ending narrative, but it exists nevertheless. 

I am not cherry picking any more than anyone who makes a comment that starts with “Since …”

Are you going to tell me that you never do that?

My “narrative” has been that the Brewers success this season has been produced by exceptional run prevention supported by average offense.

I have never hidden from the fact that I have been starting with “since June 10” because the Brewers first 10 games in June featured aberrations in both runs scored and runs allowed by the Brewers in no small part because of the environments in which those games were played. The Brewers lost 4 of those 10 games despite scoring 84 runs. 

I first came up with this “narrative” that you think is so negative after the month of May, when the Brewers went 19-7 while only scoring 4.15 RPG largely because they only allowed 2.77 RPG.

I don’t know why my opinion and observation bothers you so much, and why you feel compelled to dig to find advanced statistics to disprove what seems obvious to almost everyone else. 

[82brewcrew82]

On 8/8/2026 at 12:36 PM, Brewcrew82 said:

Some context for those who claim the Cubs have a much better offense than the Brewers.....Not really true.

 

 

What is your premiss here?  That two predictive stats proove the Brewers offense is equal to or better than the Cubs offense?  Two predicitve stats that even their curators say should not be used, together or by themselves, to draw conclusions without a whole lot of other data without risking misleading resutls?  I'm also guessing these are season long numbers. Would love to see what those look like for the last 60 days or so.  I'd bet those arrows are pointing in two very different directions.  I could throw out a ton of stats that show the Cubs offense is better, because it is.  They aren't hard to find.  You talk about Cherry picking but that is exactly what you've done here.

[Brewcrew82]

7 minutes ago, 82brewcrew82 said:

What is your premiss here?  That two predictive stats proove the Brewers offense is equal to or better than the Cubs offense?  Two predicitve stats that even their curators say should not be used, together or by themselves, to draw conclusions without a whole lot of other data without risking misleading resutls?  I'm also guessing these are season long numbers. Would love to see what those look like for the last 60 days or so.  I'd bet those arrows are pointing in two very different directions.  I could throw out a ton of stats that show the Cubs offense is better, because it is.  They aren't hard to find.  You talk about Cherry picking but that is exactly what you've done here.

I mean I also just provided xwOBA, which is the most comprehensive in terms of expected offensive output. These also are not cherry picked for a certain timeframe. They represent the entire season when teams get hot and cold over various points.  

From a metric standpoint, at least, the point remains that the notion that the Cubs offense is “much better” than the Brewers isn’t really borne out by the data. 

Defense is where you’re much better off making that argument.

[Brewcrew82]

2 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

I am not cherry picking any more than anyone who makes a comment that starts with “Since …”

Are you going to tell me that you never do that?

My “narrative” has been that the Brewers success this season has been produced by exceptional run prevention supported by average offense.

I have never hidden from the fact that I have been starting with “since June 10” because the Brewers first 10 games in June featured aberrations in both runs scored and runs allowed by the Brewers in no small part because of the environments in which those games were played. The Brewers lost 4 of those 10 games despite scoring 84 runs. 

I first came up with this “narrative” that you think is so negative after the month of May, when the Brewers went 19-7 while only scoring 4.15 RPG largely because they only allowed 2.77 RPG.

I don’t know why my opinion and observation bothers you so much, and why you feel compelled to dig to find advanced statistics to disprove what seems obvious to almost everyone else. 

Me: “Here are some key metrics which suggest that the Cubs’ offense isn’t that much superior to the Brewers.”

You: “I don’t like those metrics because they don’t take into account things like contact.”

Me: “Okay, here’s a more comprehensive metric which encompasses contact and QOC and likewise shows the Brewers and Cubs with similar levels of expected offensive output”

You: “I don’t know why my opinion and observation bothers you so much and why you feel compelled to dig to find advanced statistics!”

Setting aside the fact that I merely shared some key data points and it was YOU who felt compelled to respond to me (like a week after I made this post btw), let me remind you that several others have pointed out your persistent, years-running habit of discarding data where the Brewers’ offense stacks up relatively well and selectively choosing data within an arbitrary timeframe to best suit your narrative. 

I’m not engaging with you any further here because I know where this is headed as you take up the naive, principled victim card as you’ve already started to do. Bottom line is the data is the data no matter your personal feelings. I shared what I and many believe to be the best indicators, and you’re free to draw your own conclusions.

[BruisedCrew]

3 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I mean I also just provided xwOBA, which is the most comprehensive in terms of expected offensive output. These also are not cherry picked for a certain timeframe. They represent the entire season when teams get hot and cold over various points.  

From a metric standpoint, at least, the point remains that the notion that the Cubs offense is “much better” than the Brewers isn’t really borne out by the data. 

Defense is where you’re much better off making that argument.

Yes, teams get hot and cold over the course of the season. But, as I have said before, teams can change significantly over the course of a season as players get injured, come back from injury, shuttle between AAA and the MLB club, and change teams through trades and waiver pickups.

Using the 2026 Brewers as an example, how relevant are results generated in April when Rengifo, Lockridge Perkins, and Frelick were getting regular playing time and Black and Jones were filling in? So, my opinion is that using more recent data provides a better picture of the current state of the team, and what to reasonably expect in the near future.

Some of the same people who are bothered by my focus on the games after the Coors/Vegas trip routinely started posts in 2021 with "Since the Adames trade..." thereby brushing aside the team's mediocre performance before that trade. But I don't remember anyone complaining about cherry picking 

I would be interested in input from other advanced stats devotees about whether xwOBA is really the best metric to use in this context. It seems like I see wRC+ cited a lot more often when evaluating team and player offensive production.

'Applying a predictive metric to a team (as opposed to a player) really seems flawed because the mix of players might be significantly different in the future .

Anyway, however you decide to come to the conclusion, anyone is going to have a hard time convincing me that the Brewers offense is as good as the Cubs'. It's not because I don't "believe" the numbers being thrown around. But I do question that they lead to the conclusion that the offenses are almost equal.

BTW, does anyone have the team wRC+ numbers for season to date?

 

[82brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, BruisedCrew said:

Yes, teams get hot and cold over the course of the season. But, as I have said before, teams can change significantly over the course of a season as players get injured, come back from injury, shuttle between AAA and the MLB club, and change teams through trades and waiver pickups.

Using the 2026 Brewers as an example, how relevant are results generated in April when Rengifo, Lockridge Perkins, and Frelick were getting regular playing time and Black and Jones were filling in? So, my opinion is that using more recent data provides a better picture of the current state of the team, and what to reasonably expect in the near future.

Some of the same people who are bothered by my focus on the games after the Coors/Vegas trip routinely started posts in 2021 with "Since the Adames trade..." thereby brushing aside the team's mediocre performance before that trade. But I don't remember anyone complaining about cherry picking 

I would be interested in input from other advanced stats devotees about whether xwOBA is really the best metric to use in this context. It seems like I see wRC+ cited a lot more often when evaluating team and player offensive production.

'Applying a predictive metric to a team (as opposed to a player) really seems flawed because the mix of players might be significantly different in the future .

Anyway, however you decide to come to the conclusion, anyone is going to have a hard time convincing me that the Brewers offense is as good as the Cubs'. It's not because I don't "believe" the numbers being thrown around. But I do question that they lead to the conclusion that the offenses are almost equal.

BTW, does anyone have the team wRC+ numbers for season to date?

 

WRC+ is probably the standard for judging team performance.  Cubs 111, Brewers 102.  Pretty much anything that isn't a statcast (expected or predictive) stat is noticably in favor of the Cubs.  More so more recently.

[BruisedCrew]

39 minutes ago, 82brewcrew82 said:

WRC+ is probably the standard for judging team performance.  Cubs 111, Brewers 102.  Pretty much anything that isn't a statcast (expected or predictive) stat is noticably in favor of the Cubs.  More so more recently.

Certainly you aren’t suggesting that somebody cherry picked a stat to support a narrative. 

[82brewcrew82]

5 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I mean I also just provided xwOBA, which is the most comprehensive in terms of expected offensive output. These also are not cherry picked for a certain timeframe. They represent the entire season when teams get hot and cold over various points.  

From a metric standpoint, at least, the point remains that the notion that the Cubs offense is “much better” than the Brewers isn’t really borne out by the data. 

Defense is where you’re much better off making that argument.

And where is this "much" stuff coming from?

[wiguy94]

xwOBA is nice but because it doesn't actually take into consider spray angle (where the ball is hit), I don't think it matters that the Cubs and Brewers have the same xwOBA. The Cubs lead MLB in air pull percentage which lets them overperform their underlying metrics and hit for more power. The Brewers are last in MLB in air pull percentage which probably helps their BA a bit but hurts their ability to hit for power this not overperforming their underlying metrics.

[Brewcrew82]

13 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

xwOBA is nice but because it doesn't actually take into consider spray angle (where the ball is hit), I don't think it matters that the Cubs and Brewers have the same xwOBA. The Cubs lead MLB in air pull percentage which lets them overperform their underlying metrics and hit for more power. The Brewers are last in MLB in air pull percentage which probably helps their BA a bit but hurts their ability to hit for power this not overperforming their underlying metrics.

I never said I wouldn't still take the Cubs offense. I'm just saying the gulf may not be as substantial as it feels right now in the midst of the Cubs hot stretch and the Brewers ice cold streak. Versus their defense where they legitimately have a substantial metrical advantage. 

They definitely hit the ball more consistently at optimal spray angles, which is why they have a higher SLG% than the Brewers despite the similar metrics. But there also may be a degree of overperformance right now too. 

[markedman5]

Yep……I was just talking a friend about this today…….Brewers top 10 in hard hit percentage…….middle of the pack in barrel percentage………yet last in homers.

Brewers lack of pull hitters…..( offensive philosophy?) really is hurting them when it comes to converting hard contact into damage.

[wiguy94]

1 minute ago, markedman5 said:

Yep……I was just talking a friend about this today…….Brewers top 10 in hard hit percentage…….middle of the pack in barrel percentage………yet last in homers.

Brewers lack of pull hitters…..( offensive philosophy?) really is hurting them when it comes to converting hard contact into damage.

Definitely think it has more to do with philosophy than personnel when it comes to the super low air pull rate.

[Brian]

If the Brewers could avg only 5 runs per game they would be completely unstoppable. 

[Frisbee Slider]

Big day for the Cubs. It will be interesting to see what Edward Cabrera brings today after nearly two month absence.

White Sox come to Wrigley next.