The Angel Zerpa Trade Looks Like a Rare Miss for Milwaukee’s Front Office

[Jason Wang]

Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

Matt Arnold’s tenure with the Brewers has been highlighted by some brilliant moves. The strategy of buying low and selling high has brought some intriguing talent to the team, like Caleb Durbin (acquired from the Yankees in the Devin Williams trade), Joey Ortiz (acquired from the Orioles in the Corbin Burnes trade), and most recently, Kyle Harrison (acquired from the Red Sox in the great infield culling of 2026).

That said, not all of his deals have been as successful. Sure, some of the smaller trades were duds on both ends, and any depth pieces that ultimately fail to exceed expectations can’t necessarily be deemed failures. However, one recent trade this offseason is looking like one of the tougher sells in hindsight.

On Dec. 14, 2025, the Brewers acquired left-handed reliever Ángel Zerpa in exchange for Nick Mears and Isaac Collins. It came as a surprise to some, since both Collins and Mears were solid contributors in 2025, while Zerpa’s abilities were less obvious. 

Collins posted a 122 wRC+ over 441 plate appearances and placed fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting, while Mears made 63 appearances for Milwaukee and pitched to a 3.49 ERA. On the other hand, Zerpa had pitched a total of 177 innings over five seasons for the Royals and managed an ERA of 3.97, with a 4.13 FIP. By all estimates, that's a satisfactory big-league resume, but it's hardly worth giving up two players.

Nonetheless, our very own Jack Stern had his thoughts on why the implicit upside of Zerpa and impending regressions of Mears and Collins could still swing the deal in Milwaukee’s favor. Even when Zerpa hit a snag and struggled to find his footing to start the year, Stern remained optimistic on what he could accomplish down the stretch.

Unfortunately, now that Zerpa’s season will draw to a premature close as a result of UCL surgery, the statistics of his debut season with the Brewers will remain as they are: underwhelming. Across his 12 ⅔ innings pitched, he posted a 6.39 ERA with a 5.33 FIP and -0.2 fWAR.

Over in Kansas City, the two former Brewers are faring just a bit better. Collins has seen some defensive regression but has remained solid at the plate so far, posting a 102 wRC+ with a nifty 13.3% walk rate. Mears has pitched 14 innings to a 3.07 ERA and 3.93 FIP, sacrificing chase rate for more ground balls.

As the saying goes, hindsight is 20/20, and at the time, the thesis behind the trade was probably sound. Although Collins had strong numbers over the entirety of last season, his offensive production took a tumble in the fall, posting a .664 OPS in the final month of the regular season and managing just one walk with seven strikeouts in ten postseason plate appearances. Similarly, Mears had a second-half ERA of 5.59 and pitched just 1 ⅔ innings in the playoffs. Zerpa, a hard-throwing southpaw with some potential left to unlock, seemed like a natural project for the organization’s pitching staff. His showing in the WBC helped his case quite a bit.

The tournament that took his hype to all-time highs for Brewers fans may have also been the very thing that led to his brutal start to the season and eventual addition to the injured list. It’s possible that getting ramped up too early and quickly may have been too much of a workload for his body to handle, but while it’s easy to blame the WBC, it’s far from the definite cause of his worries. Pitching injuries are more common than ever, and with teams making endless demands for more velocity and spin, injuries such as Zerpa’s are typically caused by a slew of different factors, rather than having a single smoking gun.

Zerpa will now be sidelined until next spring or summer, which (assuming there’s no labor stoppage in 2027) means that Milwaukee will have, at most, just over a season more of club control over him. Meanwhile, the Royals will have Mears until 2028 and Collins until 2031.

Unless Zerpa goes on a ridiculous run to conclude his time with the Brewers and/or Collins and Mears become negative contributors to the Royals, it’s likely the result of this trade will be disappointing. But misses can’t always be avoided, and for an organization as galaxy-brained as the Brewers, not all bets will pay off. 

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[wildcat83]

Your judging a trade as a miss because the player we received got hurt?  If that’s the case, then yes, they screwed up.  Zerpa’s upside was very evident in the WBC, his stuff is electric.  Knowing his injury, I would still make that trade today.

[brewmann04]

Cant judge because of injuries 

[BallFour]

Isaac Collins has an fWar of 0.0

Nick Mears has an FWar of 0.1

Even if Zerpa was a terrible player and didn't get hurt this would still not even be close to being defined as a "miss"

I am not even sure if Isaac Collins is a MLB left fielder. He was good defensively for a couple months with the Brewers but that cratered later in the season. If Collins can't be an average left fielder than what value does he have? Seems like he can't play anywhere else.

[Opening Day]

I think we can all agree that the Brewers have a great front office.  With the market and payroll they've done an amazing job to keep the Brewers consistently competitive.  But they are not perfect and dont need to be defended as such.  Collins has been better than Perkins and Jones, guys getting AB's in his place.  And Mears has been better than Zerpa.  So far they obviously lost this trade.  Its ok, you cant win them all.  And there is no reason to pretend that they did.  

 

 

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, BallFour said:

Isaac Collins has an fWar of 0.0

Nick Mears has an FWar of 0.1

Even if Zerpa was a terrible player and didn't get hurt this would still not even be close to being defined as a "miss"

I am not even sure if Isaac Collins is a MLB left fielder. He was good defensively for a couple months with the Brewers but that cratered later in the season. If Collins can't be an average left fielder than what value does he have? Seems like he can't play anywhere else.

Moving off of Mears was a no brainer. Even though he has positive fWAR his underlying numbers have mostly been really lousy outside of his FIP. You're unfortunately right about Collins. I think we certainly missed the depth he provides when Chourio was injured but his defense has looked nearly unplayable since the ASB last year. It sucks that Zerpa got injured but we didn't appear to lose much with what we gave up.

[Secret Stadium Sauce]

Fire the 'injury anticipation' coach

[igor67]

I'm OK calling it a likely 'miss' based on the current results. But not all misses are equal. At some point if you do enough trades, the guys you send out will have really good years afterward based on expectations, and the players you get back will have much worse performance than expected. For me the distinction is partly looking at the overall rate on a lot of trades, and the Brewers generally seem to keep coming out positive the majority of the time. The second consideration is what you don't want are misses where the players leaving turn into difference makers and not just contributors. Especially over multiple years. If Collins has a 3-4 WAR season that stings a little, but at the end of the day you won't look back and be like I can't believe we traded away Collins a few years down the line. Oddly enough while the injury limits his chances there is still time and talent for Zerpa to come back and also have a dominant season with the Brewers.

[JimmyC]

I also was a little puzzled by this trade, then impressed when I watched Zerpa in the WBC, and finally disappointed when he got injured.

I did see both Mears and Collins regress in the second half of last year - so that probably played into the trade.

More importantly, the Brewers had a glut of young pitchers and outfielders playing great in the minors - so I expect that was a primary reason the trade was made.

[tmwiese55]

My guess is they would've come out way ahead on this trade if not for the injury.   Yes, it will likely go down as an L or push now, but its tough to get too upset or put blame on bad injury luck.  Can't win them all though, and generally speaking they excel at finding BP so they were more than likely on to something here.