Brewers have owned RISP in 2026

[wiguy94]

I decided to do my best @sveumrules impression when someone asked if the Brewers have been able to have success without hitting many HR because they haven't allowed many HR. HR differential looks like it could be a decent stat to measure general team success as the top 3 in HR differential this year are the Yankees, Dodgers, and Braves who are 3 of the best teams in baseball. The Brewers sit at a modest 14th with a -2 differential. 

How have they gone about being so successful while having a middle of the road HR differential? Well the title says it all. The Brewers have dominated RISP in 2026.

Hitting with RISP - 559 PA (4th) with a .290/.387/.443 slash for a .364 wOBA (3rd)

Pitching with RISP - 400 PA (2nd) with a .221/.294/.307 slash for .269 wOBA (1st)

I think the two big questions are is this type of success sustainable over an entire season and can this type of success translate to postseason success. I know @sveumrules has posted about the Brewers hitting really well with RISP for multiple seasons now so maybe the Brewers have cracked the code in that regard. I think the second question is the key. Can you have postseason success playing this way? In the postseason teams are going to be much more aggressive trying to win when it comes to pitching decisions in addition to seeing the team's best pitchers more often in the postseason. Can you rely on stringing together hits against the best pitchers in the sport? 

[Underachiever]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

Can you rely on stringing together hits against the best pitchers in the sport? 

 

I don't think so. 

[homer]

I don't think you can have post season success this way. Maybe you can get lucky and win a bunch of low scoring games but I do think you need some slugging to advance. 

[sveumrules]

It's obviously been awhile, but the most recent WS Champs with subpar isolated slugging were the 2012 Giants (87 ISO+) and 2015 Royals (92 ISO+). The 2014 version of the Royals is the lowest recent WS participant with an 83 ISO+.

Last year the Blue Jays made it in right at average (100 ISO+), the Giants won it in 2014 just a tick below (99 ISO+), the Cleveland team that lost in 2016 was at 101 ISO+.

It's not impossible, it's just a long shot. It's always going to be a long shot. After winning Game Six of the 2018 NLCS, when the 100% World Series Odds were divvied up amongst just three remaining teams, and all the Brewers had to do was win one home game to advance, FanGraphs had their odds of winning the World Series at 9.0%. When they were up two games to one earlier in the series it was 11.3%. Before the NLCS started last year they had us at 11.4%.

The most encouraging element of the whole thing to me (besides having a uniquely constructed, fun to watch team that wins) is that they're just getting started. It's evolved from "they can't develop hitting prospects" to the Brewers getting an MLB best 52.0 WAR from players in their Age 28 season or younger since Murphy took over in 2024. Second place in the Yankees at down at 40.6 WAR with an eight win boost from their Soto year.

From a team that was 17th in runs scored with a 100 position player wRC+ during their 2017 to 2023 run, to one that's 4th in run scored with a 105 wRC+ since 2024, to one that's scored thee most runs in MLB with a 111 wRC+ over the last calendar year, to whatever the future holds with the current young core plus the dozen or so hitting prospects waiting in the wings over the next couple two tree years.

[markedman5]

I don’t have the stats but wasn’t our only World Series lost to a Cardinals team with very little power? 

[wiguy94]

5 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

I don’t have the stats but wasn’t our only Workd Series lost to a Cardinals team with very little power? 

Yes Cardinals were 25th out of 26 teams in ISO though in the WS the Cardinals had a higher ISO than the Brewers did.