Fangraphs - Remaining Standings Projections

[Jirsch]

Fangraphs has the team winning the division by 9 games when it is all said and done....53-46 the rest of the way is entirely doable from my chair....thoughts??

 

[sveumrules]

For the nine completed full seasons since Stearns/Arnold arrived in 2016 the Brewers have beaten their preseason FG projected win totals by an MLB best 87 wins.

Eight of the nine years were over (2022 the only under), with five of those at +12 or more and on pace for another double digit overage this year (they were at 83 W).

Going back to 2023 their seasonal runs per game differential has been +0.50 then +0.84 then +1.06 and now +1.67 so far this year. Those projections above are showing +0.28 run per game differential over the remaining 99 games.

I don't expect them to maintain their current 103 Win pace, but I also don't think the fall off will be quite as steep as FanGraphs is projecting.

[igor67]

Still seems a bit conservative looking in particular at the Run differential, I'd say 95 wins still gives us some regression, but not a huge amount. It's also a one that would make it very tough for another central team to catch us.

[cragi]

Very doable but also expect a rival to make a bigger run

[Playing Catch]

If the Brewers are going to best their record win-total, regression-projections will be there all season. Projections don't typically project outliers, I wouldn't think.

[Samurai Bucky]

There are a few sites that show the remaining Strength of Schedule (SOS).  This one has the Brewers with the 8th toughest from here on in, and 24th toughest so far.

https://powerrankingsguru.com/mlb/strength-of-schedule.php

This site shows how many games are left against toughest and easiest opponents.

https://www.tankathon.com/mlb/remaining-schedule-strength

[yfinn6]

53-46 seems doable the rest of the way if the rotation and bullpen stay healthy, which seems like a pretty big IF (I know, other teams have their injuries, if not more). 

Also, this summer is going way too fast if I'm seeing 53-46 as the end of the season already. 99 games to go is still the majority of the season but damn time is flying by.