Thought Question of the Day - Pete Crow Armstrong Versus Jackson Chourio

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

Which player has more long term value?   

Both players are completing their third season.  Chourio is 2 years younger (22) than PCA (24)

Both players are signed long-term for similar deals.  Chourio through 2033 (7 years - $132 million), PCA through 2032 (6 years- $115 million) - (assumes both JC option years are picked up by the team)

Both have similar offensive career stats through 3 seasons 

Chourio - .786 OPS (OPS +116)
PCA - Career .784 OPS (OPS+118 )

Jackson has been more consistent over the first 3 years, PCA is putting up the best season (.919 OPS and OPS+ 154)

WAR favors PCA on the basis of defense

While Jackson hasn't "broken out" yet to the extent that PCA has in 2026, he's only 22 and has achieved several key benchmarks that only a handful of players in MLB history have.   I would imagine that Brewers fans have almost a universal dislike for PCA (maybe primarily because of who he plays for?)

If you were a GM and could inherit the player of your choice (and their contract), which player would you choose?

 

 

[RWeeksFan23]

Crow-Armstrong by far.

He's the best player on the planet right now, excluding unicorn Ohtani.

[torts]

Which player has not done this 

[TURBO]

1 minute ago, torts said:

Which player has not done this 

Again, I'd put up with a couple of those per season if we had a player, ANY player who hits like PCA hits...

[MrTPlush]

PCA > Chourio. Though I do think PCA is probably a riskier long term option. 

PCA is one of the few dozen players that Made could be traded for.

 

[Jopal78]

PCA and it’s not close right now. PCA is already an MVP candidate at 24. Chourio at 22 is a good but not yet great player. 

Right now PCA putting up a 7.0 WAR while still making 900K ($10M in ‘27) . Chourio is putting up a 1.9 WAR while already making 7.2M ($8.2M in ‘27). Who knows what the future holds but for the short run the Cubs are getting better production/value for their money. 

[endaround]

Chourio has to surpass Geoff Jenkins before we can talk about being better than PCA.

[rickh150]

Chourio’s contract is about half of PCA whiner….so that plays in this too. 

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

58 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Chourio’s contract is about half of PCA whiner….so that plays in this too. 

Actually, the contracts are pretty close over the next 6 years.  This far, Jackson has made more than PCA as well

jackson has an extra year at $25M (year 7) team option.  For purposes of comparison, I assumed that the brewers would exercise the first option. 

[yfinn6]

RIght now? PCA and it's not close. 

That said, I'm glad we have Chourio and I hope he has a long prime window with the Brewers. 

[rickh150]

3 minutes ago, TwinsBrewersWorldSeries said:

Actually, the contracts are pretty close over the next 6 years.  This far, Jackson has made more than PCA as well

jackson has an extra year at $25M (year 7) team option.  For purposes of comparison, I assumed that the brewers would exercise the first option. 

PCA is $19.17 per year for 6 years with no club options and escalator to $133

Chourio is $10.25 per year for 8 years with two club options at $25 mil per. 

Chourio with a much better contract.  

[Opening Day]

6 hours ago, TwinsBrewersWorldSeries said:

Which player has more long term value?   

Both players are completing their third season.  Chourio is 2 years younger (22) than PCA (24)

Both players are signed long-term for similar deals.  Chourio through 2033 (7 years - $132 million), PCA through 2032 (6 years- $115 million) - (assumes both JC option years are picked up by the team)

Both have similar offensive career stats through 3 seasons 

Chourio - .786 OPS (OPS +116)
PCA - Career .784 OPS (OPS+118 )

Jackson has been more consistent over the first 3 years, PCA is putting up the best season (.919 OPS and OPS+ 154)

WAR favors PCA on the basis of defense

While Jackson hasn't "broken out" yet to the extent that PCA has in 2026, he's only 22 and has achieved several key benchmarks that only a handful of players in MLB history have.   I would imagine that Brewers fans have almost a universal dislike for PCA (maybe primarily because of who he plays for?)

If you were a GM and could inherit the player of your choice (and their contract), which player would you choose?

 

 

I refuse to answer on the grounds that I may Incriminate myself by sounding like I think highly of any Cubs, especially PCA.

[Lathund]

This is Chourio's age 22 season. When PCA finished his age 22 season, his was .228/.282/.370 (81 wRC+) for his career. Still 2.4 fWAR due to defense. Point being that a lot can happen in two years. Right now it's PCA, but I also don't buy that this hot streak is who he is as a hitter. And I also think there's more to come from Jackson. 

[SeaBass]

PCA and it's not a hard decision whatsoever. They both have over 1500 major league plate appearances. They have a lot of similar physical abilities, PCA is just better. I like Jackson and am glad we have him but it's PCA.

(Deleted what I didn't like about my own post)

[Jopal78]

10 hours ago, rickh150 said:

PCA is $19.17 per year for 6 years with no club options and escalator to $133

Chourio is $10.25 per year for 8 years with two club options at $25 mil per. 

Chourio with a much better contract.  

Sure, if the production is the same. PCA is the much better player right now and has more room to regress and still be valuable.

Chourio at $7.2M while  being a sub 2 WAR player this year is probably about right,  but his contract will get real unfavorable should he not substantially pick up the production going forward. 

 

 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

PCA is also two full years older than Chourio. Gotta remember that Jackson is still at an age that most players are still in AA or AAA. There is a lot of growth potential there. 

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

10 hours ago, rickh150 said:

PCA is $19.17 per year for 6 years with no club options and escalator to $133

Chourio is $10.25 per year for 8 years with two club options at $25 mil per. 

Chourio with a much better contract.  

PCA was free for 3 years, while Chourio was paid from day 1....  Jackson has earned $15M, PCA has earned $6M

But regardless, the question was moving forward.  From 2027 moving forward, the contracts are in essence equal.  PCA has 6 years and $115 million remaining, Chourio has 7/$117 remaining 

If you want to look at lifetime, PCA would be 9 years/$121 M and Jackson would be 10 years, $132M, again, virtually identical

[kestrel79]

Let's revisit this during Jackson's season where he's 24 years old and I'll let you know. 

[CheezWizHed]

PCA the ball player, Jackson the person. 

Also this (jumping after Chourio's HR ball ironically):

[MrTPlush]

According to fangraphs, PCA leads all of baseball in WAR (hitters) with 37% more than #2.

Chourio is #82.

Who are some recent players similar to Chourio that eventually broke out? Being 22 is valid, but 360 MLB games is getting to be a big sample. It’s actually kind of crazy how consistent he has been. Basically the same exact player every year. Of course there are still two months left, so maybe he gets hot and turns in a nice year to build hype for 2027.

[tmwiese55]

4 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

According to fangraphs, PCA leads all of baseball in WAR (hitters) with 37% more than #2.

Chourio is #82.

Who are some recent players similar to Chourio that eventually broke out? Being 22 is valid, but 360 MLB games is getting to be a big sample. It’s actually kind of crazy how consistent he has been. Basically the same exact player every year. Of course there are still two months left, so maybe he gets hot and turns in a nice year to build hype for 2027.

What's a tad disappointing is the second half of his rookie year looked like that breakout. But since then he's probably taken a small step back and leveled off a bit.

Seems to me, an idiot watching on tv, the biggest thing he needs to figure out is pitch recognition and swing decisions. A good improvement on that should give him a huge leap. Frustrating part is, I remember the 2nd half of his rookie season complimenting him on his eye, patience, taking the walks etc as he started to get pitched around then.  But since then he's regressed on that front.   I guess ironically for this thread, that same improvement is probably what has led to PCAs breakout this year. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

2 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Who are some recent players similar to Chourio that eventually broke out?

We have one in Yelich. Made his MLB debut at a young age. Athletic. Solid but not superstar numbers in Florida. Slow build before a minor break out at 24 years old, followed by a superhuman breakout at 26. 

[tmwiese55]

You could probably put Barry Bonds in that same discussion. Came up young, did ok/fine. Massive breakout at 25 years old.   Then for some reason had another breakout/leap at 36 years old

[Matt]

16 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

According to fangraphs, PCA leads all of baseball in WAR (hitters) with 37% more than #2.

Chourio is #82.

Who are some recent players similar to Chourio that eventually broke out? Being 22 is valid, but 360 MLB games is getting to be a big sample. It’s actually kind of crazy how consistent he has been. Basically the same exact player every year. Of course there are still two months left, so maybe he gets hot and turns in a nice year to build hype for 2027.

Pete Crow-Armstrong.

[MrTPlush]

26 minutes ago, Matt said:

Pete Crow-Armstrong.

Not a horrible example. But I guess I’d think he broke out at the start of the last year, which was half the time it’s taking Chourio. PCA just didn’t become a literal MVP candidate till he started getting on base consistently.

In retrospect, Chourio had a really nice stretch of success that first year after a cold start. He just has not replicated any form of successful consistency since. Hasn’t had two .750+ OPS months in a row since.