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Posted

I would love to run it back and go after a big name however 1 thing is clear after beating the Dodgers. Our organizational strategy is working. We don't need to spend on aging players. We have traded all our top closers with a year of control, Megill should get us 2 good young contollable players. Uribe, Ashby, and Hall can pick up the slack and we have Wagoner, Sproat, and others as late inning potential relievers. I prefer to give William the Willy treatment and let him play out his deal, he is a good leader and the depth behind him is solid but far from a sure thing. If we can get an overpay on Joey or Hamilton I think we would have to trade one with Made as close as he is, good business is good business. As others have mentioned Jake should be given a QO after the last series but no long term deal with Vaughn 1 more year and the young bats that are close. My only to do would be to turn some depth into a higher end starter. I could see that being a vet like Joe Ryan or Sandy Alcantara if the price isn't to high (1 year with a probably QO return after a WS run isn't much of a risk) or going after another young arm like Priester or Harrison.  

Each of the last 3 or 4 offseasons it seems like Arnold has found a way to better the farm system and big league overall talent all while losing a big name key player or two.

  • Like 2
Posted
14 hours ago, jay87shot said:

I would love to run it back and go after a big name however 1 thing is clear after beating the Dodgers. Our organizational strategy is working. We don't need to spend on aging players. We have traded all our top closers with a year of control, Megill should get us 2 good young contollable players. Uribe, Ashby, and Hall can pick up the slack and we have Wagoner, Sproat, and others as late inning potential relievers. I prefer to give William the Willy treatment and let him play out his deal, he is a good leader and the depth behind him is solid but far from a sure thing. If we can get an overpay on Joey or Hamilton I think we would have to trade one with Made as close as he is, good business is good business. As others have mentioned Jake should be given a QO after the last series but no long term deal with Vaughn 1 more year and the young bats that are close. My only to do would be to turn some depth into a higher end starter. I could see that being a vet like Joe Ryan or Sandy Alcantara if the price isn't to high (1 year with a probably QO return after a WS run isn't much of a risk) or going after another young arm like Priester or Harrison.  

Each of the last 3 or 4 offseasons it seems like Arnold has found a way to better the farm system and big league overall talent all while losing a big name key player or two.

Agree with your overall analysis.

We are now the best team in baseball with massive control over the best roster in the game. We control every player but Bauers, who we’ll give a QO to and hopefully, but not likely, sign to an extension. 

I’ve said previously I want to limit installation of rookie talent for the ‘27 season, preferring to go veteran in an attempt to win what will be hopefully be their second title in a row.

Pitching will be the key, specifically starting pitching, with the team having a nice group of starters going into the year with more upper-minors SP depth than they’ve had in a while. 

History tells us they will likely trade Megill with his walk year coming up. I think they hold the rest of core of the team, with the exception trading Vaughn if they can extend Bauers.

Ashby-Uribe-Hall is a strong back 3, with a boatload of potential arms including the likes of Cameron Wagoner making up what should be another strong bullpen.

The extra revenue created by making the WS is the wild card. Adding a key FA and or more extensions of key young talent can make next year’s team a monstrous Juggernaut and help extend the timeline of WS contention.

  • Like 2
Posted

I don't see them trading Megill.  I don't think he gets us the massive haul that some think he'll get.  I'd rather see them keep Contreras and Megill for their last year, and see if we can repeat another trip to the World Series.

Offer the QO to Bauers, yes.  Extend him, only if he gives us some kind of deal to stay.  As much as I love the guy, I don't see him having this kind of year ever again, and the last thing we need is to be overpaying a future platoon type player, who isn't the best defensive player, the next 4 years.  I'd rather the Yankees or someone else take on that risk.  Losing Bauers will hurt, but give one of our youngsters a shot and see what happens. (Adams, Burke, or Fisher)

If we somehow kept Bauers, then yes, I think we have to trade Vaughn, who seems to have such a limited role on this team, it's criminal.  I doubt the return would be that great, which is why I hesitate to trade him, but wasting him another year like 2027 just seems silly.  He'll be another season away from his hamate injury, so I'm expecting more power in 2027.  Maybe another team would think the same?  Who knows?

I just did a big post on Contreras, so I won't beat that horse here.  In short, let him play out his contract, but DO NOT trade him.  Offer him at most a 3 year extension, which he will pass on unless we offer him a boatload of cash.  I'd offer him 2 years as high as $60 million.

I could see us in the market for a big gun starting pitcher via trade, so that is always an option, especially if they think Miz, Henderson, Gasser, and Harrison need another addition.  I fully expect to see 1st half Harrison return in 2027, so I'm not really concerned about him, but I can see adding another TOR type via trade.  Our farm is too good, we can never play all the guys we have in the minors, so it may be time to start weeding some of those guys out to make the A squad better.  What will Priester's status be?  Personally, I don't think we can count on him at all.

I don't expect to be in on anyone via free agency that isn't the type we always go after.  The big name guys, the big money guys, will continue to go to other teams, while we try and cash in on guys nobody else wants.  

 

 

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS
Posted

unless the CBA dumps a boatload of cash on the Brewers, I dont see any chance they go after a big free agent any time soon. When is the last time they did that? They dont have holes they are desperate to plug. Just not how they built a winner.

What keeps them up at night is how they can make use of their limited extra cash to extend the timeline of guys coming up and the CBA is likely going to shrink that. I expect any padding will go to extensions, especially with prospects. They have some trade options (Hamilton/Ortiz, Frelick/Mitchell/Adamczewski, Vaughn/Fischer/Adams/Bitonte) to go after strengthening the rotation or adding some younger arms or a high caliber catcher to the system.

Posted
11 hours ago, SF70 said:

The extra revenue created by making the WS is the wild card. Adding a key FA and or more extensions of key young talent can make next year’s team a monstrous Juggernaut and help extend the timeline of WS contention.

I wouldn't mind adding a player if there is the money however I wouldn't go long term on anyone over 30. If we added say Sonny Gray (or another higher end vet starter) for 1 or 2 years that would be great because it is a relatively low risk move. I would stay away from adding someone on a long term deal say Michael KIng for like 4/100, sure we could probably afford it however the likelihood of a 32 year old pitcher staying healthy for 4 years is low. If we spend money I would rather thy and extend our young guys like Misi, Henderson, or Made pay a little more now and save money later. 

 

10 hours ago, TURBO said:

I don't see them trading Megill.  I don't think he gets us the massive haul that some think he'll get.  I'd rather see them keep Contreras and Megill for their last year, and see if we can repeat another trip to the World Series.

Offer the QO to Bauers, yes.  Extend him, only if he gives us some kind of deal to stay.  As much as I love the guy, I don't see him having this kind of year ever again, and the last thing we need is to be overpaying a future platoon type player, who isn't the best defensive player, the next 4 years.  I'd rather the Yankees or someone else take on that risk.  Losing Bauers will hurt, but give one of our youngsters a shot and see what happens. (Adams, Burke, or Fisher)

I think alot would depend on the package we could get back, if the best deals are like what we got for Devin (Durbin was like a top 15 org. prospect and Nestor was like an expiring #4 starter at best) I would agree on the pass. I do think with him getting showcased in the playoffs especially showing teams how important a strong bullpen is should give his value a boost. Also there are some teams that could use bullpen help that might have some mlb starters available.

I agree with Bauers getting a QO, but I am conflicted on what an extension would look like that would be best for us. For now I will say he should get like 3/50 or 4/70 if his market takes off. I can't see 4 years for us as an option, 3 seems like a reach with our youth. 2/40 would be ok as a slightly higher AAV. If we do sign him long term we could trade a young 1B option or two I suppose.

Posted

Here is my current hopeful offseason

1) Megill and Tyson Hardin to MIami for Sandy Alcantara and P Eliazar Dishmay.      The Marlins need relief and have young starters. I am hesitant to add Hardin but we get back a young quality arm in return we get 200 innings for 50 or so. The long term potenital of losing Hardin is minimized by the lesser pitching prospect.

2)Bauers accepts QO.     I think this is the best of both worlds. We keep Bauers for a year and give our young bats time to be ready for 2028. 

3)Vaughn and Dinges for Jeff Hoffman and OF/IF Luis Fregoza.    With Bauers back Vaughn doesn't have a huge role. The Twins don't have anything at 1B and Vaughn would be a huge add. We get Hoffman to make up for losing Megill. Hoffman was great in Minny the 2nd half and would be a huge add, we lose a quality prospect in Dinges to get the deal done. With his defensive question marks though sending Dinges wouldn't hurt, especially if we could get another lower ranked prospect like Fregoza that likely has a higher ceiling.

4) Coleman Crow, Sal Frelick, Jett Williams, Grant Anderson, and Colton Gordon for Reid Detmers.   I doubt the Angels brass is as bad as it has been. However the Angels need everything including a culture change, this deal gets them 5 players who would play right away. We get another crazy good arm for moslty expendable guys, we also get 40 man space for Arnold to play around with and add talent in other ways. 

5) Minor deals= The last trade gives Arnold and Crew some space to go find the next Bauers, Megill, or whomever. I would really like to see Woodruff brought back cheaply, even if it is just as a guy like Bryse Wilson where he just soaks up innings when needed.

1) CF Mitchell 2) LF Chourio 3)2B Turang 4)C Contreras 5)1B Bauers 6)3B Joey  7)DH Yeli 8)SS Pratt 9)RF Lara

Bench) Naylor, Hamilton, Lockridge, Adams (if he can play a little OF)

1)MIsi 2)Alcantara 3)Henderson 4)Detmers 5)Gasser 6/LR) Harrison 

Uribe, Ashby, Hoffman, Hall, Patrick, Drohan, Sproat, Wagoner, Woodruff?, Stallings, cheap arms.

Leave Jesus Made in AAA until the trade deadline unless he is just to good early and forces the issue early. He still will only 19 to start the season so no need to rush him just because he is the number 1 prospect. At the deadline we can move Joey or Hamilton more logically with Made ready at that point.

Posted

I’ll go with my hopeful offseason — assuming we win the WS:

• Tender everyone.

• Hold Megill.

• Extend Bauers— Offer the QO which limits his FA haul so we can sign him to a 3/$55M deal.

• Trade for Sandy Alcantra— Hardin & Knoth & Flores.

 

These 4 all-in moves would improve next years team over this years team and make MKE heavy favorites to win their second WS in a row.

Winning this year’s WS would change everything with this team financially. Team valuation would skyrocket (my guess is by as much as $500M to a billion $). In addition they would add $30M to $50M in direct PS revenue and untold tens of millions next season with increased everything Brewers including gate receipts.

It’s going to take a big offer for Miami to part with Alcantara. Might have to go with Letson instead of Hardin, which I would still do, although that would hurt much more.

 

Adding the best innings-eating starter in baseball would give the team one of the best rotations in the game. Retaining Megill and adding Wagoner gives the bullpen a chance to be even better than it was in ‘26.

Bringing back the entire lineup, with the prime-aged, battle-tested and experience of the group makes this one of the scariest teams baseball has seen in a while.

Posted

My 2027 thoughts while waiting for the World Series to start:

 

1) Jake Bauers - will leave via FA and sign a multi-year contract.  I would be willing to offer the QO (1yr-$23) but I wouldn't be willing to go multiple years (at a lower per year).  Partly because we have Burke and Fischer knocking on the door and partly because I am not confident that this year wasn't a career year and will not be duplicated again.  Vaughn is the primary starter at 1B to begin the season but at some point Burke or Fischer come up and take the bulk of the starts. 

2) Trevor Megill will be traded.  Brewers doing Brewer things and sell on a guy with 1 year of control left.  The return will be viewed as disappointing at first but by the end of they year it will be viewed as another Matt Arnold win. 

3) William Contreras.  - Brewers go against type and hold onto Contreras given his importance on the field and in the clubhouse (and they do not have a prospect C ready to come up)  .  They will try to sign him to an extension but will disagree on years and so the Brewers will just pick up his option for '27 and potentially try to sign him again in FA.

4) Aaron Ashby- new role.  Brewers control Ashby for the next three years ($7.5 in '27 and TO's for $9 & $13).  Those are significant numbers for a non-closer / non-starter.  Which means I think they move Ashby either back to a starter role or he becomes the closer in place of Megill.  I lean towards starting.  He is too good to limit him to 65IP as a closer. Uribe becomes the closer and DL Hall is the 8th inning guy.

5) Jesus Made - The Brewers agree to a Chourio like contract with Made and he becomes the starting 3B.  This helps diminish the angst of losing Bauers and Megill from a World Series Championship team.

6) Brandon Woodruff signs a 1yr $5 deal with performance bonuses based on availability.  He performs when available but cannot be counted on making more that 10 starts. 

7) None of the deadline acquisitions (May, Romero, Senzatela) come back, although the Brewers do have some interest in Romero but don't want to go multiple years.

8) Despite the Brewers winning the World Series, the Cubs are again the consensus pick to win the division in '27.  The Brewers win 97, win the division and at least play in the NLCS.  The Cubs disappoint and win 88 games and Counsel is fired.  

  • Like 1
Posted

Not trading prospects for a rental like Skubal…I can’t blame a GM for not doing that.

Making (hopefully winning) the World Series and proceeding to trade any major piece (Megill/Contreras) for pieces that may provide something years from now? You will rightfully have fans grabbing pitchforks. If there was ever a time to stand pat and just eat the reality all you will get is a QO comp pick, it is when said players literally get you to a World Series.

  • Like 1
Posted
9 hours ago, Underachiever said:

Any chance Willam C finishes in top 4 of MVP race?

Don't think so. That midseason slump (182 PA of 50 wRC+ from 0627 to 0819) really killed William's batting line and he didn't grade out particularly well behind the plate (-1 DRS | -6 FRV | -2.1 FRM) so he ended up with 3.0 fWAR | 2.9 bWAR.

PCA (10.6 fWAR | 9.8 bWAR) will probably be unanimous at #1.

Best candidates for two through five are probably...

Ohtani (7.4 fWAR | 6.4 bWAR)
De La Cruz (6.4 fWAR | 5.6 bWAR)
Turang (5.9 fWAR | 7.3 bWAR)
Misio (7.4 rWAR | 6.6 fWAR | 6.5 bWAR)
Gabriel Moreno (5.4 fWAR | 6.7 bWAR)
Otto Lopez (5.9 fWAR | 6.1 bWAR)
Bregman (5.5 fWAR | 5.8 bWAR)
Sanchez (6.3 rWAR | 6.2 fWAR | 8.1 bWAR) 

Posted
1 hour ago, MrTPlush said:

Not trading prospects for a rental like Skubal…I can’t blame a GM for not doing that.

Making (hopefully winning) the World Series and proceeding to trade any major piece (Megill/Contreras) for pieces that may provide something years from now? You will rightfully have fans grabbing pitchforks. If there was ever a time to stand pat and just eat the reality all you will get is a QO comp pick, it is when said players literally get you to a World Series.

Prepare to be dissapointed.

  • Like 2
Posted
10 minutes ago, Jose Cardenal said:

Prepare to be dissapointed.

Umm thanks? Kinda weird comment since you predicted they would not trade Contreras?

I’m not sure it’s a sure thing they stick to their status-quo of operations after a World Series appearance. Especially if they are suddenly NL favorites for once.

I think they could trade Megill, but he also isn’t Hader or Williams. We traded them, but they also had the best reliever in the game hype to get some decent prospects back. Megill…I don’t know the return is enough to not just hold onto him. 
 

Also, like you, I ponder if the Brewers may consider trying Ashby as a starter again. Losing both Ashby and Megill in the pen seems like quite a loss. I don’t think both those outcomes exist at the same time.

Posted
47 minutes ago, KCBrewerfan34 said:

Top paid catcher is Will Smith at $16 mill per. Would you do 4 for $70 mill for William? 

Will Smith signed that extension when he was still two years from free agency. Contreras is already set to make around $15M in Arby's next year so that would barely represent any kind of raise.

More recently Cal Raleigh was still three years away from free agency and signed a six year $105M extension.

I would guess the number William & his agent have their sights set on is the $23.1M record annual average value for a catcher set by JT Realmuto when he signed with Philly back in 2021.

So something like $15M for his last Arby's season (age 29) then say five years at $26M each for a total of six years and $145M. That would be a positional record for average annual value at just over $24M per year and the third largest contract in catcher history behind Posey (9/167) and Muaer (8/164). 

Posted

Let Bauers go and put the money he's going to get towards extending Contreras. This was Bauers' only good year and throwing a lot of money at him is risky. Vaughn and Adams/Fischer could handle 1B.

Get 3B Casey Schmitt from S.F. for Williams-Hardin-Dinges.  Schmitt has 3 years controll and no place to play in S.F... In his walk year he could be traded and Pena comes up. Schmitt has power to offset the loss of Bauers and is very good with the glove. Made (hopefully signs a long term deal) goes to AAA and replaces Turang after 2027 when Brewers trade him. Made can be called up in case of injuries. 

Get Detmers from Angels for Sproat-Ortiz-Uribe-Burke....Angels get youth they need. Detmers gives the Brewers the #3 they need. Gasser at #4 and Harrison/Priester/Crow/possibly Woodruff ($3M "showme" contract) fill the #5 spot with others going to long men in the pen.

Keep Megill to have the lockdown closer. Uribe was inconsistent and Ashby has taken over the setup role. Hall-Drohan-Patrick-Zerba/Romero pickup the earlier innings. 

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