Brewers (Gasser) vs Orioles (Rogers): 9/19/26, 3:05pm

[sveumrules]

3 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

But it kinda wasn’t the point to win surplus value was it? 
 

They didn’t win the surplus value with Wily Adames either FWIW. 
 

It’s fun baseball talk stuff but teams don’t really make decisions based solely on surplus value 

The point(s) were to get good regular season performances from May and Romero, en route to winning the Division, holding a Top Two seed to secure a bye, and then contributing towards winning some playoff games after that.

The first hasn't come to fruition, the second has, the third looks imminent, and we'll find out about the fourth in October.

[TURBO]

17 minutes ago, willie key said:

The may trade is terrible.    I don’t even know why it’s being debated.   He doesn’t eat innings.   We have to use the whole damn bullpen.   He doesn’t perform.   He’s just a name they put on the lineup card every 5-6 days.    Which could have been anybody at this point.     I bet any of the damn minor leaguers could have replicated this nonsense.    He’s bad and will be a huge reason when we lose a playoff series because we have to throw his “veteran” rear end there in game three

the pressure on Miz and Henderson to win every game because the mays and Harrison’s of the world have to have their butts wiped for them because they can’t hack 2-3 innings is aggravating to say the least

It's not really being debated as a group, it's one guy going against the grain, and willing to die on the hill that says the May trade was good while virtually everyone else says it stunk.

[sveumrules]

Just now, shanedog19 said:

The Dodgers can and will turn it on at any time. It still feels like we are pretty heavy underdogs to them in a 7 game series with how much depth they have.

No doubt the Brewers will always be the underdog to the Dodgers, but they have been closing the gap.

Before Game 7 of the 2018 NLCS the FanGraphs Playoff Odds gave the Brewers a 9.0 WinWS%.

Before the start of the NLCS last year the FanGraphs Playoff Odds gave the Brewers an 11.4 WinWS%.

Today, with eight games left in the regular season, the FanGraphs Playoff Odds give the Brewers a 14.8 WinWS%.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

Dustin May is objectively terrible. According to baseball references, he has negative WAR over the past 2 seasons

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/maydu01.shtml

the brewers saw something they hoped to unlock, but it hasn’t worked out.  If we had sent a lottery ticket for him, I would have no issue with it, but we objectively traded two top-100 projects for a hot mess when there were far superior options available (Clay Holmes) who would have cost less.

i think Matt Arnold is a fantastic GM.  I also think his trades at the deadline were a disaster.  No need to make it worse by carrying folks that have no business on a playoff roster (May, Harrison, Senzeleta)

he’s also played for 4 teams in 2 seasons.  The definition of JAG.

it would have been an underwhelming move, but Freddy Peralta is now, and has always been a far superior player to Dustin May.   If we wanted to eat innings, Peralta would have been a hell of a lot cheaper to require, with an actual history of success.

dusty May should be playing on a one year $5 million “prove it deal” next year for a team hoping to strike lightning in a bottle.  Sorry, but the guy just is not a legit top 1-2-3 pitcher

 

 

[Brewcrew82]

If you're one who cares about the 1 seed (I'm not), 100 wins (4-4) almost certainly gets it done. Even at 3-5 the Brewers are more likely than not to get it.

Dodgers having to make up 3 whole games in the standings is an uphill battle with only 8 games remaining.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/interactive/mlb-playoffs-projection-bracket-2026/

[Just Some Guy]

41 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

No doubt the Brewers will always be the underdog to the Dodgers, but they have been closing the gap.

Before Game 7 of the 2018 NLCS the FanGraphs Playoff Odds gave the Brewers a 9.0 WinWS%.

Before the start of the NLCS last year the FanGraphs Playoff Odds gave the Brewers an 11.4 WinWS%.

Today, with eight games left in the regular season, the FanGraphs Playoff Odds give the Brewers a 14.8 WinWS%.

Kalshi/Poly are even more optimistic about the Brewers WS price, 17ish, and our H2H series price vs the Dodgers will be better than last year (Miz), but I still can't visualize the upset.

The Dodgers' playoff rotation will be some order of Yamamoto, Skubal, Snell (very likely) and Ohtani/Glasnow.  Basically, terrifying.

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, Just Some Guy said:

Kalshi/Poly are even more optimistic about the Brewers WS price, 17ish, and our H2H series price vs the Dodgers will certainly be better than last year (Miz), but I still can't visualize the upset.

The Dodgers' playoff rotation will be some order of Yamamoto, Skubal, Snell (very likely) and Ohtani/Glasnow.  Basically, terrifying.

Ohtani ain't pitching thankfully. Though, Snell looks to be okay. 

[markedman5]

Turang getting the rare day off…….along with Yeli and Bauers against the lefty

 

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I'm not even criticizing the move. It's a wonderful organization. But they can do something bad and they did. The guy sucks. I don't know why we have to pretend there's grey area. He's bad. 

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

8 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

I'm not even criticizing the move. It's a wonderful organization. But they can do something bad and they did. The guy sucks. I don't know why we have to pretend there's grey area. He's bad. 

I agree snapper.  I’m not angry we made the move.  We needed to do something after missing out on other players.

i’ll be irritated if we keep pitching a terrible player to justify making the move

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, TURBO said:

It's not really being debated as a group, it's one guy going against the grain, and willing to die on the hill that says the May trade was good while virtually everyone else says it stunk.

No. I think in every post about it I said May hasn’t pitched well. I dispute the notion that it’s some awful trade that they were foolish to make.

There is an obvious reason why they made the trade. Even with May making it a six man rotation their other starters are running on fumes. imagine asking that group to absorb another 31+ innings on top of what they’ve already thrown.

Dump on May as being crappy, but he came with 464 major league innings, a 1.23 whip, 2:1 K:BB ratio, and 1 HR/9. They acquired an established major league starter who hasn’t performed as hoped. That makes the result disappointing to date, it doesn’t make the decision to acquire him foolish. 

It is also a false equivalency to look at some AAA ERAs and  conclude the Brewers simply could’ve got the same production by shuttling a collection of AAA arms  back and forth assuming minor league stats translate seamlessly against major league hitters .It also ignores the practical roster and workload problems trying to manufacture 30+ innings that way. 
 

Finally, it’s treated as almost a guarantee they’ll someday regret trading Frias and Ragsdale. Maybe they’ll both be perennial All-Stars for most of a decade, or maybe they’ll be the next Joey Wiemer. That uncertainty is the entire point. Prospects are possibilities, not future major leaguers held in escrow. The only way this becomes an obvious disaster is if you assume the most flattering possible future for the prospects and the least flattering possible present for May. That’s not evaluating a trade; it’s writing the ending first and pretending the evidence already exists.

[BCF]

Everyone thought the Brewers crushed the Red Sox in the Harrison trade and look how that turned out 

Maybe we should judge the trade after the regular season and playoffs and not based on one month small sample size 

[willie key]

There are so many layers to how bad this trade is.    First off you trade to a division rival.    If any of those players we traded become a starter for the cardinals it’s a beyond horrible trade.     Also if you don’t make the trade maybe you can package those players for the offseason for someone who might be useful in 2027 instead.    Just a panic garbage move that almost everybody first guessed

This guy couldn’t even suppan it for us for a couple of months.    
 

just a bum.    Thanks for letting me rant

back to the 100 win brewers

[BCF]

Just now, willie key said:

There are so many layers to how bad this trade is.    First off you trade to a division rival.    If any of those players we traded become a starter for the cardinals it’s a beyond horrible trade.     Also if you don’t make the trade maybe you can package those players for the offseason for someone who might be useful in 2027 instead.    Just a panic garbage move that almost everybody first guessed

This guy couldn’t even suppan it for us for a couple of months.    
 

just a bum.    Thanks for letting me rant

back to the 100 win brewers

And if May dominates in the postseason? You can’t wait until after the entire season to say this? 

[willie key]

Just now, BCF said:

And if May dominates in the postseason? You can’t wait until after the entire season to say this? 

That’s the only way this works.    But I’m not holding onto that.    To be honest he should t even pitch in the postseason 

[OldSchoolSnapper]

9 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

No. I think in every post about it I said May hasn’t pitched well. I dispute the notion that it’s some awful trade that they were foolish to make.

There is an obvious reason why they made the trade. Even with May making it a six man rotation their other starters are running on fumes. imagine asking that group to absorb another 31+ innings on top of what they’ve already thrown.

Dump on May as being crappy, but he came with 464 major league innings, a 1.23 whip, 2:1 K:BB ratio, and 1 HR/9. They acquired an established major league starter who hasn’t performed as hoped. That makes the result disappointing to date, it doesn’t make the decision to acquire him foolish. 

It is also a false equivalency to look at some AAA ERAs and  conclude the Brewers simply could’ve got the same production by shuttling a collection of AAA arms  back and forth assuming minor league stats translate seamlessly against major league hitters .It also ignores the practical roster and workload problems trying to manufacture 30+ innings that way. 
 

Finally, it’s treated as almost a guarantee they’ll someday regret trading Frias and Ragsdale. Maybe they’ll both be perennial All-Stars for most of a decade, or maybe they’ll be the next Joey Wiemer. That uncertainty is the entire point. Prospects are possibilities, not future major leaguers held in escrow. The only way this becomes an obvious disaster is if you assume the most flattering possible future for the prospects and the least flattering possible present for May. That’s not evaluating a trade; it’s writing the ending first and pretending the evidence already exists.

None of what he's done in his career changes the fact he's been awful in Milwaukee. At time of trade it was defensible. But he's a terrible Brewer. 

[BCF]

4 minutes ago, willie key said:

That’s the only way this works.    But I’m not holding onto that.    To be honest he should t even pitch in the postseason 

With Harrison struggling he’s going to have to. He’s also the only one in the rotation with World Series experience and big postseason experience 

[BCF]

Like is it so hard to simply say the May trade has been bad so far but if he turns it around and is big in the postseason then it would be worth it? 

Why do we always have to make rash judgments on whether or not they “won” or “lost” a trade after one month?

[Just Some Guy]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/interactive/mlb-playoffs-projection-bracket-2026/

Is The Athletic worth it?  I've hit their paywall a few times now, so I think I'd use it and they've got a great deal for the first year, 20 bucks. 

(It's just that I've got a bad habit of signing up for cheap first year deals, then not using them, but forgetting about them until I get zapped for full price for the second year).

[markedman5]

15 minutes ago, BCF said:

Everyone thought the Brewers crushed the Red Sox in the Harrison trade and look how that turned out 

Maybe we should judge the trade after the regular season and playoffs and not based on one month small sample size 

Actually it’s best to judge most trades over an even longer period than that. 
 

Harrison trade looked lopsided in our favor for most of the season…….now it doesn’t…..by next year and the year after it might look different again.

The Burns trade has looked better and better over time.

Obviously with May and Romero being rentals that trade will be evaluated based on this years results for us…….but nobody bats 1000,,,,,,I understand why Arnold did it…….so 2nd guessing is a game I don’t like to play.

If it didn’t work……so be it…….not the first and won’t be the last……his resume looks awfully good in aggregate.

[markedman5]

Just now, Just Some Guy said:

Is The Athletic worth it?  I've hit their paywall a few times now, so I think I'd use it and they've got a great deal for the first year, 20 bucks. 

I've got a bad habit of signing up for cheap first year deals, then not using them, but forgetting about them until I get zapped for full price for the second year.

It’s worth 20 bucks a year….imo

[Just Some Guy]

1 hour ago, markedman5 said:

Turang getting the rare day off…….along with Yeli and Bauers against the lefty

 

I like Chourio hitting lead off.  It was a change to lead off that ignited PCA's year from so-so to MVP.  That'd be a cool path to follow.

[BCF]

13 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

Actually it’s best to judge most trades over an even longer period than that. 
 

Harrison trade looked lopsided in our favor for most of the season…….now it doesn’t…..by next year and the year after it might look different again.

The Burns trade has looked better and better over time.

Obviously with May and Romero being rentals that trade will be evaluated based on this years results for us…….but nobody bats 1000,,,,,,I understand why Arnold did it…….so 2nd guessing is a game I don’t like to play.

If it didn’t work……so be it…….not the first and won’t be the last……his resume looks awfully good in aggregate.

Agreed, I wonder if they consider bringing May back next year as well depending on what the cost is 

[RobertCrawley]

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[OldSchoolSnapper]

4 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Well, apparently, the front office disagrees with your armchair assessment of the AAA carousel but hey the A’s and Astros are looking for GMs so not all hope is lost just yet. 

 

I bet they don't, actually. If they could undo it based on how those two have played, they would.