Padres (Ray) vs Brewers (Misiorowski): 10/3/26, 7:30pm

[Brock Beauchamp]

Alright, let's go! The Brewers absolutely have the pitching matchup they want, but man, the Padres' offense has been scorching hot for the past couple of months.

In less awesome news, I will be at a concert that I bought tickets for two months ago, and the concert starts right around first pitch. MLB had four time slots to choose, and the Brewers-Padres is the one *exactly* at concert time.

[Frisbee Slider]

I hope your concert is better than Robbie Ray’s Savant page. Nearly 50% sliders against left-handed batters this season will be interesting against our lefty bats.

I predict more innings out of Walker Buehler than Robbie Ray today.

[owbc]

9 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

I hope your concert is better than Robbie Ray’s Savant page. Nearly 50% sliders against left-handed batters this season will be interesting against our lefty bats.

I predict more innings out of Walker Buehler than Robbie Ray today.

Ray sucks, period. The only reason he still has a job is because he's been playing on west coast teams in pitcher-friendly ballparks for the last half decade. 

We need to take care of business today and knock a little swagger out of the Padres. 

[Frisbee Slider]

Robbie Ray has allowed 20 home runs to right-handed batters this season. We should use a lineup of Chourio, Vaughn, Contreras, then Sanchez, I like our chances of hitting one HR in the opening inning. I predict a first-pitch, Matthew Boyd-style changeup to Chourio that draws a very hard swing to start the game. 🙂💪

[HarveysWBs]

They say that momentum is only as real as the next game’s starting pitcher. Let us hope that is true in this series.

Get the bats going early, get AmFam rocking, and draw first blood. The better team should come through.

[liveforoctober]

 

 

[Frisbee Slider]

No roster surprises. I like having 13 pitchers.

[Just Some Guy]

38 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Robbie Ray has allowed 20 home runs to right-handed batters this season. We should use a lineup of Chourio, Vaughn, Contreras, then Sanchez, I like our chances of hitting one HR in the opening inning. I predict a first-pitch, Matthew Boyd-style changeup to Chourio that draws a very hard swing to start the game. 🙂💪

Now that's a BOLD prediction.  I LIKE it!!!!  

[Frisbee Slider]

DH pretty much has to be either Sanchez or Yelich? I guess it could be Vaughn at DH then have Bauers at 1B and Lara in RF?

[Frisbee Slider]

Splits against LHP in 2026

[liveforoctober]

21 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

DH pretty much has to be either Sanchez or Yelich? I guess it could be Vaughn at DH then have Bauers at 1B and Lara in RF?

I could be very wrong, my gut says without Naylor - Murphy will hesitate to have both Sanchez and Contreras in the lineup at the same time and Bill is just going to catch this whole 1st series. 

Vaughn DH, Bauers 1B, Lara RF.

I say that knowing full well it is probably going to be Yelich DH, Vaughn 1B, Bauers RF when the lineup card hits.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

The only roster sub I would have made is Lockridge for Harrison.

Not that big of a deal. And with a different matchup, I'd completely understand Harrison. It's just that, between Ashby, Romero, Drohan, and Hall, we kind have the lefty who can go multiple innings spot covered (and Gasser may be used that way too), so it's hard for me to imagine a situation where we'd want Harrison in there. I guess he'd be the designated "absorb innings in a beatdown" pitcher? I'd be fine slotting Drohan into better than that role, feeling generally safe, and adding Lockridge's ability to take pitches and pinch-run, especially as a RHB, which is something we're short of in the OF (and I'm not confident Murphy will use Sanchez very aggressively).

Like I said, marginal. Hopefully it won't matter.

Go Crew! 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, Frisbee Slider said:

I hope your concert is better than Robbie Ray’s Savant page. Nearly 50% sliders against left-handed batters this season will be interesting against our lefty bats.

I predict more innings out of Walker Buehler than Robbie Ray today.

I really like this matchup for the Brewers. 

[markedman5]

1 hour ago, Frisbee Slider said:

I hope your concert is better than Robbie Ray’s Savant page. Nearly 50% sliders against left-handed batters this season will be interesting against our lefty bats.

I predict more innings out of Walker Buehler than Robbie Ray today.

Destiny takes a hand….

 

[Devinep]

43 minutes ago, liveforoctober said:

I could be very wrong, my gut says without Naylor - Murphy will hesitate to have both Sanchez and Contreras in the lineup at the same time and Bill is just going to catch this whole 1st series. 

Vaughn DH, Bauers 1B, Lara RF.

I say that knowing full well it is probably going to be Yelich DH, Vaughn 1B, Bauers RF when the lineup card hits.

I’m afraid you’ll be correct. Gary has 200 higher OPS vs lefties but Yelich is a name and used to be good. They should have carried 3 catchers so they won’t be afraid to use Sanchez 

[Frisbee Slider]

How about Vaughn as DH, Bauers at 1B and Lara in RF?

That gives us the opportunity to pinch hit or run for Vaughn and invariably swap Frelick for Lara at some point, too. Sanchez remains a weapon off the bench.

[Frisbee Slider]

23 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

Destiny takes a hand….

 

Naturally, Randy Vasquez has 16.2 scoreless innings against Milwaukee spanning 2024 and 2025. I don't see how, though. https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/ivP4f

Vasquez Savant page below:

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

39 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Naturally, Randy Vasquez has 16.2 scoreless innings against Milwaukee spanning 2024 and 2025. I don't see how, though. https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/ivP4f

Vasquez Savant page below:

Good fastball, doesn't walk guys?

It's so hard to separate any sort of signal from noise in these samples. Thanks for posting. It's nice to check out these graphs and think about whether there's anything aside from randomness at play.

I suppose if Vasquez is a difference-maker in this series, we're not winning anyway.

Weirdly enough, I'm oddly zen about this game tonight. We'll see if it lasts. Not sure if it portends good things or is simple self-defense, but, either way, I'm looking forward to watching Miz get an October start.

[Frisbee Slider]

Among active pitchers, only Chris Bassitt has longer career scoreless inning streak against Milwaukee than Randy Vasquez. 

https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/jzhwG

Brewers also never scored against Jose Contreras or Mudcat Grant 🙂

 

[yourout]

Wonder what the historical odds are if you win the first game of a five-game series versus losing the first game.

[CheezWizHed]

1 hour ago, markedman5 said:

Destiny takes a hand….

 

Interesting... Walter probably returns to start game 3 or 4 (if it exists). Meanwhile the team gets an extra reliever in the BP. 

[Frisbee Slider]

5 minutes ago, yourout said:

Wonder what the historical odds are if you win the first game of a five-game series versus losing the first game.

According to this 2024 article, the team that wins game one ends up winning the series 72% of the time.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/nlds-alds-game-1-scores-takeaways-shohei-ohtanis-first-hit-mets-wild-comeback-and-more-from-mlb-playoffs/live/

[yourout]

28 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

According to this 2024 article, the team that wins game one ends up winning the series 72% of the time.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/nlds-alds-game-1-scores-takeaways-shohei-ohtanis-first-hit-mets-wild-comeback-and-more-from-mlb-playoffs/live/

Wow.. that's even more than I would have expected.