I believe the Orioles think they have a shot at winning the AL East next year. Adding someone like Burnes who has been relatively healthy and still young yet would be someone that they would trade Rodriguez for. The Orioles have something like $90m that they could spend this offseason. Will they do that? I am not sure they will but if they wanted to they will. As recently as 2018 the Orioles had a $148m payroll.
The only year where their payroll starts to get expensive is 2024 and some of the players who would be getting expensive probably wont even be on the team anymore and it only comes up to about $102m. If the past Orioles payroll is any indication then the Orioles have about $40-60m left.
I think the Orioles are going to be extremely aggressive this off season spending and trading for players. The Orioles definitely need starting pitching which in trades gets really expensive to acquire. They are either going to have to trade Rodriguez and Holliday for someone like Burnes or trade Westburg, Hall and others for a #2 or #3 pitcher. For a #1 pitcher like Woodruff you are looking at Holliday plus others.
I believe the Orioles are looking for that ace pitcher that they can matchup with Cole. In free agency the only two options are DeGrom and Rodon. I don't think either will sign with the Orioles so that leaves them with a bunch of one or two year contract players. I don't see Verlander leaving the Astros so that leaves the Orioles with Syndergaard and Manaea as the other options. I don't believe the Orioles will get a FA starter and will instead trade for someone like Burnes or Woodruff. Burnes will cost a lot more so maybe Woodruff is the more likely option for them. I think Holliday is someone the Orioles could see as expendable for someone like Woodruff. I don't think there is a deal for Burnes without Rodriguez in it at least on the Brewers side. If the Brewers really like Holliday then sure something like Holliday, Westburg, Hall and a throw in could work but I really do not like Hall at all.