Eye Black

http://i43.tinypic.com/2wexhkz.jpg Actually a little better overall than I had guessed. I am hoping for better than 1 combined WAR between Peralta and Thornburg/5th Starter. Any positive WAR out of the 1B position would be a nice upgrade this season.

Below is Mark Reynolds player card on BrooksBaseball.net using data from pitches that were tracked by the PITCHf/x system in 2013: Against All Fastballs (1,253 seen), he had a good eye (1.19 d'; 74% swing rate at pitches in the zone vs. 29% swing rate at pitches out of the zone) and an aggressive approach at the plate (-0.04 c) with a disastrously high likelihood to swing and miss (31% whiff/swing). Against Breaking Pitches (644 seen), he had a good eye (0.88 d'; 67% swing rate at pitches in the zone vs. 33% swing rate at pitches out of the zone) and a steady approach at the plate (0.00 c) with a high likelihood to swing and miss (41% whiff/swing). Against Offspeed Pitches (225 seen), he had a good eye (1.17 d'; 78% swing rate at pitches in the zone vs. 35% swing rate at pitches out of the zone) and a steady approach at the plate (-0.19 c) with an above average likelihood to swing and miss (40% whiff/swing).

Minor league deal with the Indians that could pay over $1 million with incentives if he makes the MLB team and performs. Welcome back to America T-Plush.

Luckily for the Cubs, we are far from their target market on this one. It will serve as a community relations ploy for youth and fan outreach events. I do think it is a little funny that they basically stole the image already used by the Daytona Cubs. http://www.tradingcarddb.com/Images/Cards/Baseball/84430/84430-NNOFr.jpg Also of interest, apparently there are only three teams left without a mascot, the Yankees, Dodgers, and Angels (rally monkey notwithstanding).

Pretty much the same sentiment from me. There really haven't been many FA signings that I have seen this off-season that made me think, "I wish the Brewers would have bested that offer." I personally would have preferred they took a step back this off-season in order to stock some talent for the future, but that was never going to realistically happen either. They appear to be stuck in neutral this offseason, but they are also in a strange position where they are too talented to get away with a rebuild, but not deep enough to be just a signing or two away from being a legitimate title contender.

- Get to June still in possession of the #12 overall pick in the MLB Draft. - Make it through the first two months of the season with a .500 or better record. - Identify capable corner infielder options for the future. - Jean Segura's play continues to warm my heart. - The minor league system takes a step forward and some of the recent draft picks show improvement/promise.

Corey Hart's thank you ad is a classy way to move on from Milwaukee... http://nbchardballtalk.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/bcbdfmxccaesltx.jpg

Rangers sign Shin-Soo Choo to a 7-year deal worth $130 million according to MLB Trade Rumors.

One of my problems with current QO system is there still seems to be a lot of unknown regarding how MLB is going to police potential loop-holes. For instance, teams reportedly attempted sign and trade deals to acquire Bourn and Lohse last year, but MLB apparently shut those deals down. So if the Cardinals would have re-signed Lohse last year they weren't allowed to trade him, but when would that restriction have expired? Could they have traded him in May or June without issue from MLB? Also, what if a team with a protected 1st round pick had signed Lohse and immediately a team like the Brewers liked the contract terms, but hadn't been willing to give up their 1st round pick so they worked out a trade to acquire Lohse? Another scenario I am curious to see play out is a player like Kendrys Morales just wait until June 8th (day after MLB Draft) to sign with a team. My understanding is in this scenario the team would not be subject to forfeiting any future draft picks, so they would in essence be saving their first draft pick by forgoing the first two months of service from the player. And if this practice resulted in a much higher than expected contract for the player, will more of these fringe guys just wait things out until they no longer have a 1st round pick attached to them.

That is a bummer BCF, you obviously deserve all the credit for making the event happen. It is my wedding anniversary, and I have already begun preparation for full damage control mode.

I agree. The White Sox had an arguably worse system than the Brewers and over the last 6-months they have added young talent through trades and international signings including: Avisail Garcia, Leury Garcia, Jose Abreu, Adam Eaton, and Matt Davidson. All of a sudden they have some good young pieces they will control for the next 5-6 years.

Following that article, Ike Davis spent 21 games in AAA during June and into early July and was certainly much better upon returning as shown by the splits SRB provided. Certainly a hard guy to project moving forward. One other guy that is intriguing to me is Scott Van Slyke. If the Dodgers would be willing to part with him, he could be an option to add to the 1B mix as well as serve as a back-up OF. In limited action last year (152 plate appearances) he put up a .240/.342/.465 line. His minor league stats over the past three years have been outstanding, albeit likely PCL aided. His 2011 line in 130 games in the Southern League was .348/.427/.525. He also looks the part with a 6'5" / 250lbs frame not to mention an all-star caliber mustache (oh, and bloodlines too). If the 27 year old Van Slyke wouldn't cost anything of great significance to acquire, he might be worth taking a chance on.

Cleveland seems like a good fit for Axford, I hope he has some success there. If Axford is able to mix his engaging personality with some pitching success, it should breed a mutual love affair with Indians fans. I am slightly curious to see where the Indians former closer, Chris Perez, ends up. Haven't heard much about him this off-season, but I am sure the tough 2013 season along with the off the field problems aren't helping his cause.

My answer is an emphatic NO! Besides as this BP article uncovered last winter, Mark Reynolds may actually be blind.

Below is another interview with Tony Blengino for those interested. Blengino also recently wrote his first article for FanGraphs on The Cano Decade. AUDIO: A Conversation with Tony Blengino (FanGraphs)

If you buy into the Fangraph's WAR projections (courtesy of Disciples of Uecker), the Brewers are currently around a 76 or 77 win team, and these two moves would likely add about 4 wins. In other words, they would be projected for a near .500 finish with the moves. Another way to look at it is the Brewers current cumulative team WAR projection is 27.9, and a team typically needs around 40.0 to be considered a "contender".

Ike Davis' K% (SO/PA) over the past two seasons is actually 25%. That still isn't great, but a little more tolerable when you factor in that his BB% has been 12% over the same span, and was 15% last season. League average BB% is around 8%.

Yeah maybe an OBP under .300, but I heard Trumbo is extra gritty. I am not sure why because I don't have a rooting interest, but this trade bothers me. It seems like once his intentions are made public, Kevin Towers does whatever he has to get the deal done regardless of perceived fair market value. I don't know, maybe he will look like a genius, but I will be surprised if at least one of Eaton and Skaggs don't go on to become a very good MLB player. On a sidenote, at least this Twitter Photo of the deal going down in a hotel room at the Winter Meetings is awesome.

Link to a nice Irving Falu Appreciation Piece from Minor League Ball recapping his days in Omaha. I hope the "Faluuuuuu" chants catch on in Nashville.

I think that was soooo this morning. Haven't heard anything about him being a priority since before lunch. #HotStoveDrama

Gomez had an outstanding year, and his team friendly contract extension makes him a valuable asset for the Brewers over the next three years. I don't think it is crazy however to project that Gomez may be at his peak value at least in terms of trade return. Prior to last season Gomez had never posted a season WAR above 2.4 and had never posted an OBP above .305. Last season he put up an incredible .506 slugging percentage on his way to an 8.4 WAR. I wouldn't be surprised to see him regress to somewhere in between the player he was in previous seasons and the player he was this past year. He was also incredibly good on defense, but the reckless abandon with which he plays defensively also opens him up to an increased risk of injury. He can cover a ton of ground, but it also adds a greater possibility of making a full speed diving catch attempt while crashing into either the ground or the outfield fence. For me, the decision on whether to trade Gomez or keep him comes down to how close the Brewers realistically are to being a playoff contending team over the next few seasons. If Gomez is likely to be the difference between making the playoffs and falling just short, then I am all for hanging onto him. If with him however they are closer to a .500 team, with little likelihood of being able to construct a roster better than an 82-84 win team, then I think deferring Gomez value by acquiring future wins in the form of prospects is more desirable. I am going to throw out a hypothetical. One disclaimer, this scenario assumes the benefit of psychic abilities of which I don't actually have. Lets say we knew Gomez was going to be worth 4-5 wins over each of the next three seasons. Then lets say the Brewers minus Gomez were a 77 win team going into next year and were likely to be a 75-77 win team without him in the remaining two seasons of his contract. In this scenario Gomez would elevate the Brewers into a win total in the low-to-mid 80s which likely would not be good enough to finish in the top two in their division or qualify as a wild card team. Lets say we also knew that we were going to trade Gomez for three prospects reaching varying levels of success. The first of which never reaches MLB, and the other two of which become a first division regular and a No. 3 starter that combine for 5-8 wins between the two of them during their peak years. Assuming this sort of return I would prefer to defer the 2014-2016 wins to 2016-2020.

What is hard to believe is in the next decade or so we are going to encounter the first half billion dollar MLB player. Then someday there is going to be a billion dollar guy. Seems inconceivable now, but someday Mike Trout Jr., or at least Mike Trout III is going to have a chance at one billion dollars.

Hultzen is going to miss the entire 2014 season after undergoing Rotator Cuff Surgery. Seattle certainly has some work to do if they plan to win in 2014. If they flip Taijuan Walker for David Price, I could picture them offering up a package for Carlos Gomez starting with James Paxton and Nick Franklin. Since the Brewers seem to prefer prospects either knocking on the door to MLB or recently graduated to the majors, I could see them at least entertain the offer. Seattle would likely need to add on an additional prospect to the deal.

Unfortunately this isn't true. If the Brewers and the Rays were the only two teams competing in MLB, then maybe they would have a chance at landing Price. But since their are 28 other teams, the value of Gallardo + 3 of the Brewers best prospects is a long way from matching offers other teams are going to give the Rays. I don't think Gallardo offers much value at all to the Rays and a large quantity of Brewers prospects is not going to sway them to trade a bonafide front of the rotation starter. When Price is traded, the return to the Rays is going to be young prospects that have a ceiling to become elite impact talents and are low to moderate risk of becoming very good MLB players. They landed Wil Myers in the James Shields trade, they are not going to accept a #3 caliber pitcher and (significantly) lesser prospects for David Price. When the trade was executed Wil Myers was an already polished and proven elite prospect. I am high on Taylor and certainly hope he will turn into a solid prospect down the road. But for now neither Taylor nor any other prospect in the Brewers organization offers a combination of possessing elite star caliber abilities along with an above average probability of reaching their potential.

The Pirates recently traded for Chris Stewart to go along with Russell Martin. There are going to be some serious pitch framing battles in the NL Central this year!